Micah Roberts' Top-10 Finish Prediction: 2023 YellaWood 500 at Talladega

Read my full article on Sportsline.com

1 #11 Denny Hamlin (12/1) - In 71 Cup starts at superspeedways he has five wins, 21 top-fives, and led 1,097 laps. His 21 top-fives is the most in the series among active drivers. Is this his year? Is this about to be his first NASCAR Cup Championship? I’m thinking it is and the storybook ending to the season has me wishing and hoping he’s finally crowned the champ. He’s grown into one of the best superspeedway drivers because he understands how the draft works better than anyone. He is able to manipulate the air in the draft to propel himself to speeds that others don’t understand yet. This man is driving for his legacy in the sport. Joey Logano has two titles and Hamlin none. That’s not cool. I’m here for it, I’m waiting for it. Starts at Talladega.

2 #12 Ryan Blaney (12/1) - This guy has only four top-fives this season. He did manage to find his way to a win. In 18 Talladega starts he has two wins, five top-fives, and 275 laps led. I put him in this position because he’s been runner-up in his last two Talladega starts. It’s a very good track for him.

3 #23 Bubba Wallace (14/1) - In 11 Talladega Cup starts, he has one 2021 win and that remains his only top-five and top-10. He’s led laps in seven of his last eight races. He led the most laps (111) last week at Texas and finished third and I was sick. But I can’t let my losses last week alter my thoughts on him this week, plus I won two driver matchups with him. But man, I wanted that win badly.

4 #24 William Byron (16/1) - In 21 Cup starts on superspeedways he has one 2020 Daytona win, four top-fives, and 191 laps led. His best at Talladega was runner-up in 2021 and his best this season was seventh in April. The treason you bet him is because he has six wins on the season and he’ll likely win once or twice more before the season is over,

5 #6 Brad Keselowski (10/1) - He has a series-leading seven wins on superspeedways, including six of them at Talladega. His last win was in 2021 at Talladega. His last two superspeedway starts have been impressive with fifth at Talladega in April and runner-up at Daytona last month. If he’s going to win again, this is the place.

6 #10 Aric Almirola (20/1) - Two of his career Cup wins have come on superspeedways with the last coming in 2018 at Talladega. It’s been a long season for him but I bet him this week because of his third place at Daytona last month. He’s led laps in his last four superspeedway starts.

7 #1 Ross Chastain (20/1) - In 20 superspeedway races he won once at Talladega last spring and finished fourth last fall. His best of the three races run this season was ninth in the Daytona 500. He’s included in my betting portfolio this week.

8 #47 Ricky Stenhouse Jr (22/1) - All three of his Cup wins have come in superspeedway race tracks, two in 2017 and one this year in the Daytona 500. He has nine top-fives in 43 superspeedway starts and led 252 laps. He knows how to make the winning moves but it’s also part of his risk-taking that gets him into trouble.

9 #54 Ty Gibbs (30/1) - This track has proven too big and bad for the young Gibbs, but I like him to manage his fears here and run well. He’s grown in confidence and while he may not have the chops to manage the draft, I advise him to stay back and run the race from the back and let the wrecks happen in front of him and out of harm's way. With 15 laps to go, make your move and race against 20 drivers rather than 38.

10 #2 Austin Cindric (30/1) - In eight Cup starts between Daytona and Talladega he has a win in the 2022 Daytona 500 and a third last summer at Daytona. His best is ninth at Talladega in this race last season.

Micah Roberts' Top-10 Finish Prediction: 2023 Hollywood Casino 400 at Kansas

Please read my full Kansas article on Sportsline.com

1 #19 Martin Truex Jr (11/2) - In 30 Cup starts at Kansas he has two wins, 10 top-fives, 17 top-10s, and 901 laps led. He’s averaged a 12th-place finish between all his starts and he has a fast car almost every week. This track is perfect for him and while I won’t win this most on him with my bets, If I had to pick one driver to win with my last dollar, it would be Truex.

2 #6 Brad Keselowski (20/1) - Back in the day with Team Penske he was always a threat to win at Kansas and he did twice with seven top-fives. Logano won three times as well. Penske was clicking. But now it’s RFK Racing and while he doesn’t have a win, and his teammate has three wins in the last six weeks. When’s it his turn? How about Sunday? His price makes him worth a shot to side with.

3 #9 Chase Elliott (25/1) - It’s been a crummy year for him, but he’s getting odds for this race that I don’t ever remember being this high. It’s so tempting, but I do believe. He’s not in the playoffs but I feel like the odds need to be exposed at Caesars Sportsbook. “Sure, we put Tyler Reddick at 9/1 but offer Chase Elliott at 25/1,” the oddsmaker might say. He’s the second-best at Kansas with a 10.9 average finish including a win and six top-fives. He’s got Hendrick equipment and it’s one of his best tracks. It’s a bet to make, put it on your things-to-do list this weekend.

4 #11 Denny Hamlin (5/1) - He’s the all-time leader in wins at Kansas with four and three of them happening since 2019. The bad part now is that he’s a huge favorite to win, but it’s been his best track since 2019. He was runner-up and fourth last season in his first year driving the NextGen car. He deserves to be the favorite. He has 12 top-fives in his 30 Cup starts.

5 #5 Kyle Larson (5/1) - In 17 Cup starts at Kansas he has a 13.5 average finish, a win, six top-fives, and nine top-10s with 540 laps led. It’s almost like the track was built for his specifications He was runner-up in the last two spring Kansas races after winning in the fall of 2021. He won last week, and he’s super greedy, so he’s a prime candidate to win.

6 #54 Ty Gibbs (35/1) - Hear me out to explain why I bet him to win. It starts with a good price, then moves on to the fact that he won an Xfinity Series race there in 2021. Then it’s the fact that he drives a JGR Toyota so he’s got the right brand, and finally, it’s the track. It’s the perfect track for him despite being in an accident and 34th in both his previous Cup starts. It just feels right this week.

7 #23 Bubba Wallace (12/1) - He won the second race of his career in this race last season and he followed that up with a fourth-place in the May race. Toyota has won six of the last eight races at Kansas. He has finished 14th or better in his last four starts at Kansas.

8 #24 William Byron (8/1) - This is his kind of race track. He’s got lots of room and can run his own line. He’s had top-10s in seven of his last eight starts, including a third from the pole in the May race. He won at Las Vegas and Darlington this season as a comparison to Kansas. He’ll probably be the guy I’m rooting against as I had to leave him out of my betting equation.

9 #1 Ross Chastain (16/1) - He’s someone I’m shopping prices with because his last three Kansas runs have been spectacular with two seventh-place finishes last season and a fifth in the May race. It’s go-time for whatever plan he used to calm the rivalries, but it’s go time now with the championship on the line and he showed it last week with a great run in the final stage at Darlington to finish fifth.

10 #17 Chris Buescher (15/1) - He has three wins between the last six races. He’s hot which is why you’re going to search for a better price and drop a few bucks on him. Somehow Team Penske and SHR Racing are going the other way in performance while RFK Racing gets the trophies. His best Kansas finish was sixth in 2017. He was 17th in the May race, but they’ve found speed.

Micah Roberts' Top-10 Finish Prediction: 2023 Southern 500 at Darlington

Read my full write-up on Sportsline.com

1 #1 Ross Chastain (10/1) - He was 29th in the spring Darlington race but before getting involved in an accident, he was fast, real fast. Fast enough to win the race winning Stage 2 and leading four times for 93 laps. He’s led laps in his last five there with a best of third-place in 2021. My reason for liking him this week is believing his car will come off the hauler fast as he did on the 1.333-mile layout at Nashville where he led the most laps (five times for 91 laps) on his way to his only win of the season. Darlington is a 1.366-mile egg-shaped oval with 25 degrees of banking with each end being different from each other. He’s going to be fast again this week and be sure to find a better price elsewhere.

2 #19 Martin Truex Jr. (5/1) - When looking at his last three Darlington finishes, you might think he doesn’t like the new car very much. He was 24th last spring, 31st in the fall, and 31st in the spring race this season. But he led 221 laps between the three races. He was in an accident in two of them and had a water pump failure in the other. He’s led laps in his last seven starts there and he has two wins overall and leads active drivers with 914 laps led over 22 starts. He’ll lead laps again on Sunday and fight for the win.

3 #11 Denny Hamlin (15/2) - This is the Lady in Black’s chosen one as he has a best average finish of 7.7 in 22 Cup starts. His four wins are the most among active drivers. He has 12 top-fives, 20 Top-10s, and led 801 laps. He’s pulled all the right moves to win the Lady over and he knows how to build a relationship with her. His race management of tires is the key to all his success. His tires never seem to wear because he’s not all over the place. He keeps his car steady early in runs and by the time all others are slowing down with tire wear his tires are preserved and it’s an edge he’s been successful with at Darlington forever. Too Tough to Tame? He laughs at the notion with a 7.7 average finish.

4 #2 Brad Keselowski (16/1) - It’s got to be tough being part-owner of RFK Racing with no wins the last two seasons watching his teammate Buescher win three of the last five races using a car similar and equal to Keselowski’s own. This sounds like the spot where he could win his first for RFK. He’s third among active drivers with an 11.7 average finish with a 2018 win and he was seventh last fall and fourth in the spring.

5 #22 Joey Logano (18/1) - He’s been good at Darlington at all stages of his Cup career but finally got his first win there last spring. He sat on the pole in both races last season and led 171 laps between the two races. This season in May, he finished 18th. He has a 13.3 average finish between 19 starts.

6 #20 Christopher Bell (12/1) - His only win this season came in the Bristol Dirt Race and he closed out the regular season with no umph or pizazz. No one is talking about him. But he can prove himself to everyone this week when the playoffs begin. And the good news about him is that he’s been very good in his last three races at Darlington with a sixth, fifth, and 14th in May. All three of those were using the NextGen car.

7 #24 William Byron (15/2) - He’s led laps in his last three Darlington starts – all in the new car – and his least amount led happened in his first win there in May. He led just seven laps but was second in Stage 1 and fourth in Stage 2. It’s a good track for him and he’s in the good graces of the Lady.

8 #8 Kyle Busch (10/1) - His only Cup win at Darlington came in his fourth start there in 2008, but he’s led a bunch of laps over the years – 899 laps led. The reason you might play him this week is because he finished seventh in the spring race and his car finished second and third last season with Reddick driving it.

9 #5 Kyle Larson (6/1) - In the old car, he was always on the brink of winning at Darlington with five top-fives in eight starts. He was runner-up three races in a row, but the new car changed his groove. He was no longer able to tempt the Lady with charm and skills. His edge was gone. His best in his last three with the NextGen car was 12th sandwiched by a 20th in May and 36th in May of 2022, his only DNF there. He's led 715 laps with no wins. But he did win an Xfinity Series race there in the spring.

10 #17 Chris Buescher (18/1) - He’s had three top-10s in his last five starts at Darlington, including 10th in the May race. He’s had three Cup wins in the last five races and the two he didn’t win were on road courses which used to be his specialty. RFK Racing is bringing the speed weekly and found something recently to make them super-fast. He’s a good driver to drop $10 on just because he’s winning everything lately.

Micah Roberts' Top-10 Finish Prediction: 2023 Coke Zero Sugar 400 at Daytona

Read my full article on Sportsline.com

1 #6 Brad Keselowski (12/1) – He leads all active drivers with seven superspeedway wins, six of them at Talladega, but he’s still a player at Daytona with 239 laps led over 28 starts. He’s led the most laps (109) in the last two Daytona 500s and I expect him to find the front again and lead some more. No wins in his two seasons as part owner of RFK Racing but his teammate Chris Buescher has won twice recently. This team is going in the right direction and I see him running a great game plan. Shop around for the best price.

2 #3 Austin Dillon (25/1) – Can you believe there are 28 drivers ahead of Dillon in the standings? It’s been a miserable season. Just one top-five in the first 25 races. Stick a fork in him, he’s done. But is he? He won this race last season to make the playoffs. He won the 2018 Daytona 500. He has the second-best average finish (15.6) at Daytona among all active drivers. He thinks he can win and he’s got a strategy and I bet him because I know he’d wreck his Mama to get the win. For him to win, he’s going to need a few “big ones” to limit the number of contenders against him and chances are great that happens.

3 #9 Chase Elliott (12/1) – He’s much better at Talladega than Daytona where he’s averaged a 22nd-place finish in 15 Cup starts. No wins, two top-fives. But this is for a playoff berth. He has to win to make it and he’s NASCAR’s headliner. He’s the golden boy. He’s why we have all these road courses because he was the best at them. The idea was he would always be in the playoffs because he was sure to win at least one race on the road course. But he hasn’t won on the roads in two years since the NextGen car was introduced. If you believe in conspiracies, you would certainly bet on Elliott.

4 #23 Bubba Wallace (17/1) - He’s got a comfortable 32-point lead but as soon as you try to stay out of trouble, trouble finds you. It’s racing at Daytona. It’s best to stay out of trouble by running up front and I think he can do it for most of the race, and then not let out any daring moves until the laps 10 laps. He can guarantee a playoff spot by just winning the race. He has four top-fives in 12 Daytona starts.

5 #22 Joey Logano (12/1) - He’s one of the better superspeedway drivers and I’ll have a bet on him at a better price than Caesars. He won the 2015 Daytona 500, but it’s what he’s done with the NextGen car recently that has me liking him this week. He was runner-up in February’s Daytona 500 after winning one of the Duels three days earlier. He leads laps almost every time he’s been racing at Daytona.

6 #12 Ryan Blaney (12/1) - He was eighth in February’s Daytona 500 and he was fourth in it in 2022. He won at Daytona in the summer of 2021 and he was runner-up in the 2020 Daytona 500. Like his teammate Logano, he’s always got a car set up to lead laps and put himself into position to win.

7 #34 Michael McDowell (35/1) – He led one lap in the 2021 Daytona 500, the last one, to win his first career Cup race. He won at Indy this season for his second win so he’s not sweating the playoffs. But he was always someone who just hung around until making something happen with five to 10 laps to go. Gotta stay in it to win it and he does it brilliantly.

8 #47 Ricky Stenhouse Jr. (25/1) - He has no pressure this week because his Daytona 500 wins secured a spot in the playoffs so he can go out and win for his team. He’s been remarkably consistent this season which includes a 12th at Sonoma, a 13th at Watkins Glen, and a seventh at Pocono. All three of his career wins have come on superspeedways. I’ll have a bet on him for sure

9 #11 Denny Hamlin (12/1) - He’s one of the best at manipulating the draft to find speed that his counterparts can’t find. It’s why he’s a three-time Daytona 500 champ and why his 654 laps led at Daytona are the most among active drivers. He has 11 top-fives as well in 35 starts. He’s also running at his best of the season. His crew is on point and I see him winning his first-ever championship.

10 #54 Ty Gibbs (25/1) – He’s got two Daytona Cup starts at Daytona and averaged a 19th-place finish but this one is different. For one, he’s grown up as a driver and is learning new tricks from teammates and other opponents. Secondly, he’s desperate to make the playoffs but he’s in 17th position, one spot out of making the playoffs. One wreck can change the entire landscape of the standings and you can believe the “big one” that happens will take out several of the aggressive desperates.

Micah Roberts' Top-10 Finish Prediction: 2023 Go Bowling at the Glen

Read my complete article on Sportsline.com

1 #8 Kyle Busch (12/1) - He has three wins on the season with eight top-fives and 13 top-10s and I believe he’s going to have the same fast car he’s had on the roads this season and that Tyler Reddick used to win two races last season. The RCR set-up for this No. 8 Chevy has been incredible and Busch took it over this season with a runner-up at both COTA and Sonoma and was fourth at Chicago. He has two wins at Watkins Glen. I like the price as well.

2 #9 Chase Elliott (7/2) - He’s the best statistical road racer in NASCAR with a 7.8 average finish, seven wins, and 16 top-fives. Amazing stuff for sure, but he’s yet to win his last 12 on them including all nine starts with the NextGen car that was introduced last season. He’s led a bunch of laps in the new car and he was fifth at Sonoma, third at Chicago, and runner-up at Indy this season but he didn’t have the best car in any of them. He won the two Watkins Glen races before Larson won the last two. I think he’ll battle hard for the win, but his lack of wins on the roads should have his price going upwards like last week when he was 8-to-1 to win at Indy, but he lost and now he’s 7-to-2? He wants to make the playoffs and this will be the last shot where he has a weighted edge.

3 #20 Christopher Bell (12/1) - In 18 Cup starts on road courses, he has a 15.3 average finish which includes two wins and nine top-10s. Every race no matter where, he finds himself in the mix leading laps in five of his last seven road/street starts. I also like the direction that JGR is going in their road course program. He’s my top Toyota to finish.

4 #45 Tyler Reddick (9/1) - He’s the second-best active driver in NASCAR, or say the stats that show him with a 12.9 average finish in 18 Cup starts. He has three wins and six top-fives. He’s had two starts at Watkins Glen and finished in the top-10 of each. He’ll be in the mix for a win.

5 #99 Daniel Suarez (10/1) - Desperation makes him attractive to bet on but the weighted price doesn’t. Caesars is protecting against a problem that doesn’t exist and never exists – risk on Suarez. The desperation aspect is him sitting 28-points behind the 16th and final playoff spot. He has three top-fives in five Cup starts at Watkins Glen. He was fifth last season in the new car, the same year he won at Sonoma. He’s a live bet this week but search for better odds.

6 #34 Michael McDowell (12/1) - He comes off a massive win last week where he clearly had the best car proving so in practice and also the entirety of the race. He also had the best race of his entire Cup career at Watkins Glen last season, the first year of the NextGen car, finishing sixth. Watkins Glen is a much different track than Indy, but I think he’s established himself as one of the better road racers.

7 #19 Martin Truex Jr (15/2) - He has five road course wins in 48 starts while averaging a 14th-place finish. He’s become one of the favorites each time on them in the last half of his career. He had four straight top-three finishes at Watkins Glen, kicked off with a 2017 win, that stalled last season with the new car. He’s back up to speed now, all good.

8 #17 Chris Buescher (20/1) - He ended his streak of eight straight top-10s on road courses by finishing 11th last week at Indy. He was ninth at Watkins Glen last season. He’s always around the front and will likely be competing for the win.

9 #11 Denny Hamlin (18/1) - This is his best road course track and his car has been improving as the weeks go by. Last season's 20th at the Glen was a product of not having their NextGen car fully figured out. Now they’re fast everywhere. He has top-fives in four of his last six starts at the Glen which began with his only road course win in 2016.

10 #54 Ty Gibbs (17/1) - He needs points as he’s 49 points down from the playoff cutoff line and he needs to race his tail off like never before. He’s a good season on them this season with a best of ninth at COT and a worse of 18th at Sonoma. He was 12th last week at Indy. He also won the 2021 Xfinity Series race at Watkins Glen. The price is a bit short, but I’ll likely just have match-up plays on the rookie.

Micah Roberts' Top-10 Finish Prediction: 2023 Verizon 200 at Indy

Read my full Indy write-up at Sportsline.com

1 #9 Chase Elliott (15/2) - He’s averaged an eighth-place finish in 27 road starts in the Cup Series with seven wins and 16 top-fives. But the new car has been kryptonite for the road course Superman. He’s gone 11 straight road races without a win after winning seven of 11 road races. The new car hasn’t stopped him from running well – he was third at Chicago – but the new car brought him back to the pack. And with that, I get some decent odds on him. This is it. He needs to win to get into the playoffs and I’m betting he will as my top bet.

2 #5 Kyle Larson (11/1) - He’s been 29th or worse in seven races this season but he also leads the Cup Series with 10 top-fives. He grabbed his first road course win in 2021 and he notched three wins. That was with the old car. He’s had one win on the roads in his last nine starts with the new car. He was third at Indy in 2021 and 35th last season. I’ll have a bet on him to win.

3 #91 Shane Van Gisbergen (6/1) - The road course ringer shook the NASCAR world with a win on the Chicago streets. Boris Said couldn’t do it, Ron Fellows couldn’t do it, and every other ringer dating back to the great Dan Gurney couldn’t do it. SVG had the skills to win, but his car was amazing. It’s a Trackhouse Racing car that was fast off the hauler and stayed fast all race at Chicago. He showed all the roundy-rounders in NASCAR how to do it. Now let’s see him do it again.

4 #45 Tyler Reddick (6/1) - He’s had some trouble on the courses his last two at Sonoma and Chicago but he’s won three of the last seven on road courses. And he’s led lots of laps in five of his last seven road races, He won at Indy last season leading 38 of the 86 laps. I think he’ll be back to normal this week running in the top-five most of the race.

5 #19 Martin Truex Jr. (9/2) - In 47 road course starts he has five wins and 14 top-fives and he added to his win total at Sonoma in June in a dominating performance leading 51 laps. It’s as if all the JGR Toyotas got road course fast at the same time. Truex is one of the best on the roads, but now he’s the favorite so I’ve left him out of my betting portfolio this week.

6 #8 Kyle Busch (11/1) - He has four road course wins over his career but the reason you bet him this week is that he’s knocking on the door of a win each time out with his 2023 car, the one Reddick used to drive to wins. He’s been runner-up twice in it at COTA and Sonoma and then was fifth with it at Chicago. I’ll be looking for better odds, but I’ll have something on him to win.

7 #11 Denny Hamlin (16/1) - He hasn’t been as good as his past in his last nine road course events but I think his car is better now than in those previous attempts. He won at Watkins Glen in 2016 and has 13 top-fives on the roads. He’s also been on the pole in the last two road races at Chicago and at Sonoma. He’ll have a good run this week.

8 #17 Chris Buescher (20/1) - You drop $5 on him only because he’s won the last two races on the schedule and the road course is his thing. It’s what got him discovered in NASCAR. You also bet him because he’s had eight straight top-10s on road courses (Chicago included). RFK Racing is putting fast cars out there every week. They’re getting stronger and they were already strong on the roads with Buescher. Yes, he’s worth a bet to win this week. Shop around.

9 #99 Daniel Suarez (22/1) - He hasn’t been able to achieve the same success he had last season this season, but you know he’s still the same driver that likes road racing. He won his first career race at Sonoma last season and was fifth at both Road America and Watkins Glen. The problem with betting on him this week is that he’s desperate for solid points. He’s only 5-points behind the 16th and final playoff spot. If he drives for the win, he puts himself in a more volatile situation.

10 #2 Austin Cindric (28/1) - This is the driver I recommend throwing $5 on because he’s in NASCAR due to his road skills and he’s desperate to make the playoffs with three races in the regular season remaining. He’s 53 points from the transfer position, or he could just go win the race and get the auto-qualifier. In 12 road races in Cup, he has seven top-10s. He was sixth at COTA and also sixth at Chicago. You’ll waste $5 on far worse things this weekend.

Micah Roberts' Top-10 Finish Prediction: 2023 FireKeepers Casino 400 at Michigan

Read my full Michigan article at Sportsline.com

1 #9 Chase Elliott (15/1) - He leads all active drivers with an eighth-place average finish. He started his career off at Michigan by being runner-up in three straight races. His worst finish was 20th in 2019 and his next worse was 11th last season. All 10 other finishes were ninth or better. He’s 40 points behind the playoff cutoff spot, but he’s got this place, two road courses, and Daytona to make it happen. Or he could just win here and get the automatic playoff berth. He was runner-up at Michigan’s sister track at Fontana in February.

2 #8 Kyle Busch (8/1) - He has three wins this season and one of them at Fontana, Michigan’s 2-mile sister track, stands up to be my first exhibit that he can win here this week. He has nine top-fives in 32 Cup starts at Michigan, but just one win back in 2011. He was in an accident last season and finished 36th, but he had nine straight top-10s there before the wreck.

3 #11 Denny Hamlin (13/2) - In 32 Cup starts at Michigan he has 11 top-fives, two wins, and 262 laps led. But his two wins came in 2010 and 2011. However, he’s been fast at Michigan in his last seven races leading laps in all seven and he’s been sixth or better in his last five. He’s knocking on the Micgan door for a win, and I have a feeling he expects to win there soon.

“I’m excited for Michigan,” Hamlin said. “Chris (crew chief Gabehart) has been telling me for weeks that we’re finally going to be able to get a win at Michigan together. We’ve had the fastest car, one of the most dominant cars there for the last handful of years. Typically, any time we are good at a track, we can tweak it a little bit to get better but the competition is also going to get better. We better be on our game, but I like our chances. It has historically been a good track for me and Chris.”

4 #19 Martin Truex Jr (7/1) - In 32 Cup starts at Michigan he has a 13.5 average finish. No wins yet, but he has 10 top-fives and he’s currently on a run of having six top-fives in his last 10 starts in 2023. He talked about his recent success this season.

“It’s so important to execute in the race these days with how close the field is and how hard it is to pass at certain tracks,” Truex said. “You have to do everything right. You have to do all of the little things right. We’ve been able to do that pretty well the last couple of months, for the most part, but really feel good about what we’ve done all year as far as the speed of our cars, and how we’ve able to race. I feel like we’ve had winning cars three or four races this year, already, and we’ve been leading a lot of laps and running up front each week. It was nice to get three of them (wins), but we would like to have more, so we will keep working on it.”

5 #1 Ross Chastain (17/1) - He had his best career finish in this race last year with 24th place. But he did lead the first laps of his Michigan career there, leading 29 laps. Between poor qualifying and poor races, you wouldn’t think I like him this week, but he was third at Fontana in February leading a race-high 91 laps.

6 #5 Kyle Larson (7/1) - From the fall of 2016 to 2017, he won three straight Cup races at Michigan when he drive for Chip Ganassi. He was the driver of the last non-Ford to win at Michigan. He is the king of the rim-riders running the high line and keeping his tires fresh for late in a run. Less movement on a run saves tires. I like him to run well here, but I’m still puzzled at what happened last week at Richmond.

7 #24 William Byron (8/1) - In eight Cup starts at Michigan he has a 14th-place average finish but his last five have been his best which includes a runner-up in 2021. He was 12th last season. He leads the series with four wins this season and this track might be win No. 5.

8 #4 Kevin Harvick (9/1) - He won this race last season. He’s won five of the last seven Michigan races. He has six wins overall on the wide 2-mile layout. And this is his last race ever at Michigan. He drives for Ford who has won the last eight Cup races at Michigan. Everything is there to say he wins again. But in the back of my mind, I know I haven’t seen the signs to trigger me to feel confident about a Michigan win by Harvick. Maybe I’ll see it during Saturday’s practice and qualifying, but I need some kind of a sign.

9 #45 Tyler Reddick (12/1) - He hasn’t had much success at Michigan with a best of 18th in his rookie season, but his style of rim-riding up high on these types of tracks does give him an edge that just hasn’t been recorded yet at Michigan for him other than an Xfinity Series win in 2019. I like how he ran at Pocono with second place and fifth at Charlotte, two tracks that require lots of horsepower as Michigan does.

10 #22 Joey Logano (14/1) - Every few seasons, he comes up with a Michigan win. His last win there was in 2019, then before that it was in 2016, and before that, it was in 2013. His next week should be soon. Maybe it’s Sunday. He was fourth last season, one of his eight career top-fives.

Micah Roberts' Top-10 Finish Prediction: 2023 Cook Out 400 at Richmond

Read my full Top-20 Finish Prediction on Sportsline.com 

1 #5 Kyle Larson (13/2) - It’s hit or miss with him this season. He either goes big or he goes south quickly. He only has two wins so far this season but his nine top-fives are the most among all drivers. After last week where he thought he was wronged by his buddy at Pocono, I think he’ll be more focused than ever and this is the kind of track he’s been crushing it – the flat short track. He was third two weeks ago at New Hampshire, fifth at Gateway, won the All-Star Race at North Wilkesboro, won at Martinsville, won at the spring Richmond race, and was fourth at Phoenix after leading a race-high 201 laps. And he’s still pissed off from Sunday. I like that. This is the type of track where he’s been at his best this season.

2 #20 Christopher Bell (13/2) - The best average finish at Richmond among active drivers with at least two starts is Bell at 5.7. In six starts, he has five top-10s and four top-fives. In the Xfinity Series, he won three of four races there from 2018-19. Flat tracks are his thing. Flat tracks are also JGRs thing as an organization – 13 wins at Richmond among his three teammates.

3 #19 Martin Truex Jr. (9/2) - He leads the Cup Series in points and he's now the 9/2 favorite to win the Championship at Caesars. Three wins this season, eight top-fives, and 11 top-10s. At Richmond, he has three wins, nine top-fives, and 1,342 laps led. He comes off a dominant win at New Hampshire which applies here, and also runner-up at Nashville on June 25. This entire Truex domination run started with a May 1st win at Dover. He’ll be chasing the win, for sure.

“I love the track, it’s great,” Truex said. “Been very successful there, especially lately with our Bass Pro Shops Camry. Been lucky enough to win some races there. I really enjoy the track because it’s kind of unique. It’s a short track, but it races like a bigger track than it is. You can really move around there the way the tires wear out and the track is really slippery, and that makes it fun and a challenge, and it’s always a good race for the fans.”

4 #11 Denny Hamlin (13/2) - The Virginian has been racing on this track his entire racing career and he’s very good at it during all fazes of his career. He has an 8.7 average finish between in 33 Cup starts with four wins, 17 top-fives, and 2, 206 laps led. He also has three Xfinity Series wins on the ¾-mile flat track. He notched his 50th career Cup win last week in a controversial winning move for the lead at Pocono, but I didn’t see anything wrong. In fact, I would go as far as saying we need more of it. Race hard all the way. Fight for your position. Get angry, throw a few swings, and give the fans something to look forward to each race. In this case, we have best friends off the track – Kyle Larson and Hamlin – not showing any love on the track, the way it should be.

5 #8 Kyle Busch (8/1) - He’s the active leader at Richmond with six wins and has 18 top-fives and 27 top-10s with 1,530 laps led. In 35 Cup starts, he’s averaged a 7.2 finish. He’s also a six-time winner there in the Xfinity Series. The only reason I don’t have him listed in the top two is because he had poor finishes in his last two starts. The team didn’t look as sharp as they did winning three times in his first 15 starts.

6 #1 Ross Chastain (15/1) - He’s had a great run at Richmond in his last two shots at it with a career-best finish there in the April race with third place after leading 16 laps. He was running with the leaders all race. Last fall, he led 80 laps and won the first stage until settling for 18th. In the spring race, he was third in the first stages before finishing 19th. He is my wild card to win this week.

7 #24 William Byron (9/1) - In 10 starts at Richmond he has one top-five and 239 laps led and the best excuse for him to win this week, besides his series-leading four wins, is his Phoenix win. Phoenix, New Hampshire, and Richmond have correlated well with similar setups. If you win at one of those, you’re a good candidate to win at the other two.

8 #9 Chase Elliott (14/1) - He has an 11th-place average finish in 14 Cup starts at Richmond with no wins but five top-fives. He did win a 2015 Xfinity Series race at Richmond. He is in a desperate role right now where he needs to win to make the playoffs. He would be the guy I see trying some special pitting to gain positions to put him up front and give him a shot to win. I will search for better odds than what Caesars is offering.

9 #45 Tyler Reddick (25/1) - He started fifth in the spring race and finished 16th which is right about his average finish at Richmond. His best finish was 11th in his first Cup start there. I'm not betting on him this week, but I will have bets on him on the road courses at Indy and Watkins Glen over the next three weeks.

10 #4 Kevin Harvick (13/2) - He won this race last season which is why he’s he’s posted so egregiously low, but a 9.5 average finish in 44 Cup starts with all different cars throughout his career is impressive. He has four wins, 18 top-fives, and 1,235 laps led over his career and this will be his last start at one of his better tracks. He’s been eighth or better in 12 of his last 14 starts at Richmond. He was fifth in the spring race.

Micah Roberts' Top-10 Finish Prediction: 2023 HighPoint.com 400 at Pocono Raceway

Read my full article on Sportsline.com

1 #11 Denny Hamlin (5/1) - He started his career winning both Pocono races in 2006 as a rookie. It was his only wins of the season but it didn’t come as a surprise because of his skills on the flat tracks. I can remember it like yesterday. The Heat won the NBA Championship and Italy won the World Cup and in NASCAR Hamlin won both races at Pocono. He’s won a total of six times at Pocono tied with Jeff Gordon for most in track history, He had the seventh win last season, got the trophy, took it home, and then a post-race inspection was big enough to penalize both him and runner-up Kyle Busch. The same car is being used and Pocono is his house.

“I’m looking forward to this weekend,” Hamlin said. “We definitely have some unfinished business at Pocono after last year. Hopefully, we’re able to unload strong on Saturday and carry that through the weekend. It would mean a lot to be able to get some redemption and to get that seventh win at Pocono to break the tie with Jeff (Gordon).”

2 #45 Tyler Reddick (12/1) - He’s never led a lap at Pocono but he has finished 11th or better in his last three starts there. Last season was his best with a runner-up. He’s got the Toyota this season and I think he’ll have a good run this week because he’s got road course skills. He enters and exits the turns fast. It’s called the road course that drives like a superspeedway. It’s the tricky triangle with three differing turns, getting flatter with each turn. I think it’s ideal for him to start his own tradition at Pocono.

3 #20 Christopher Bell (11/1) - I’m going to have a small bet on him despite a rough couple of weeks out of him. It’s not because of his 2017 Truck Series win at Pocono or finishing fourth in two of his five Cup starts, but it’s more about having JGR equipment. They had the two best cars at Pocono last season, but they didn’t get credit for the wins.

“After a rough couple of weeks we need to get back on track,” Bell said. “I’m looking forward to getting some extra laps in the truck before the cup event, I’ve always been a believer in racing as much as you can.”

4 #5 Kyle Larson (7/1) - No wins in 15 starts, but he does have five top-fives and an 11th-place average finish. He’s been good enough to win here at least four times. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him step up here.

"The No. 5 HendrickCars.com team almost got a win there (at Pocono Raceway) in 2021 and we got a top-five finish there last year,” Larson said. “Hopefully, we can get a win there this year.”

5 #19 Martin Truex Jr. (6/1) - He has a 14th-place average finish among his 33 starts at Pocono which includes two wins, the last coming in 2018. He’s had one top-five in his last eight starts there. But he’s won on all of his home tracks this season – Dover and New Hampshire – and this would finish off his trilogy.

“Really looking forward to going to Pocono this weekend in our Interstate Batteries car. It’s one of our home tracks, as they say. I’ve won there a couple of times and kind of struggled there last year. But really excited to get back with the fast racecars James (Small, crew chief) and all the 19 guys have been bringing to the track lately. The team is doing a great job, and we’re fired up and hope we can get another win at Pocono, but this time with Interstate Batteries on board with us.”

6 #9 Chase Elliott (12/1) - He’s 60 points out of making the playoffs but he’s running out of time. He needs to win. He’s been fourth three times at Pocono, but his biggest moment came last season when he won the race by default. He won the race and didn’t lead a single lap. Put that question in a trivia question for cash. He didn't even get the trophy until later in the week. He was sitting in third when the No. 1 and No. 2 finishers both got penalized. Some sportsbooks didn’t follow house rules and paid out Hamlin as the winner and then also had to pay out Elliott. I like desperate drivers, but I can’t get over that Elliott hasn’t led a lap in his last six starts at Pocono.

7 #24 William Byron (9/1) - This has been a great track for him with a 9.4 average finish in nine Cup starts, the best among active drivers. His worst finish was 18th as a rookie. His best was in 2021 when he was third. He led laps in the double-header event in both races. He likes the track. It looks like it was built for him.

“We’ve always had fast cars there (Pocono) not only as a team but as an organization as well,” Byron said. “Rudy (Fugle) and I have a win there in trucks and we came close in 2021 to getting two wins in the doubleheader weekend. Heading to a track that we’ve been traditionally really good at helps to bring that momentum back for everyone after a tough weekend. I’m just excited to get on track and put New Hampshire behind us."

8 #8 Kyle Busch (6/1) - He has a 15th-place average finish in 35 starts and this will be his first driving for RCR, but the good news is that Reddick who drove the car last season was runner-up. Busch has four wins and 11 top-fives and he missed another top-five last season when the post-race inspection placed him last. He led a race-high 63 laps before getting penalized.

9 #99 Daniel Suarez (30/1) - In the NextGen car last season, the one that is relatively the same this season, he finished third and was running in the top-6 most of the race. He was a contender. He’ll be a contender this week as well and the generous price at Caesars makes it worth throwing a few bucks on him to win. His best finish was runner-up in 2018.

10 #1 Ross Chastain (10/1) - His best Pocono finish was 24th in 2019, but he has a win in the Truck Series there. Last season he had his best Cup run, but his driving style caught him in a pickle. Poke the bear (Hamlin) too much, the bear wakes up and bites. He was on his best Pocono run leading the second stage and leading 16 laps when he got in a side-by-side situation on a restart with Hamlin and Chastain didn’t let up and crashed the wall because Hamlin didn’t give him any room. It was a successful payback. He’ll be good here this week, but his price is too short to give him a shot.

Micah Roberts' Top-10 Finish Prediction: 2023 Crayon 301 at New Hampshire

Kyle Larson won at Richmond, a good sign for NHMS.

Read my entire New Hampshire article on Sportsline.com

1 #19 Martin Truex Jr (13/2) - He won at New Hampshire in a 2005 Xfinity Series race but that’s been it for him in all NASCAR Series over his career. It’s considered a home track for him as Dover is, which he won on in May, but NHMS has been hard to win at despite an 11th-place average finish in 29 Cup starts. He’s had eight top-fives and 916 laps led, but no wins. This might be his final season and this is a track he definitely wants to cross off the to-do list. He’s been seventh or better in seven of his last eight starts and last season’s fourth-place finish after starting on the pole and leading a race-high 172 laps looked like it. He won the first two stages. He’s owed a win on this layout. He deserves a Cup win and this team has all the capabilities to get that win.

2 #20 Christopher Bell (5/1) - There may be no one better at New Hampshire other than Bell because all he does is win there beginning with a 2017 Truck Series win. He then won three straight races at NHMS in the Xfinity Series, the last being in 2021. And then last season he won his first Cup race there. That’s five wins in three NASCAR major touring series and he won the last Cup race there and he still drives the JGR car. He was runner-up in the 2021 Cup race as well. He deserves to be the favorite.

3 #11 Denny Hamlin (13/2) - He’s the active leader witha 9.5 average finish in 29 Cup starts at NHMS and has 11 top-fives to go along . He was sixth last season. You might bet him to win this race because you can see him getting better with this car on the smaller tracks and turning well in the road courses with poles at Sonoma and Chicago. He was third at Nashville and runner-up at St. Louis. His next win will be No. 50 for his career.

4 #8 Kyle Busch (10/1) - He’s a solid candidate to win based on leading a race-high 121 laps and winning at St. Louis last month. Three wins on the season and yet I don’t view him as a title contender for some reason. Perhaps it’s the inconsistent nature of RCR over the last decade that has my mind going the opposite direction of what’s staring at me right in face. Busch is elevating RCR to a status not seen in over a decade. And then he’s got the NHMS history such as three wins, 11 top-fives, and 1,134 laps led which is the most among active drivers.

5 #24 William Byron (12/1) - He’s notched a series-high fourth win through 19 races and he’s streaky meaning he’s live for Sunday to win again. His last win was sandwiched between two top-3 runs. His first two wins of the season came back-to-back at Las Vegas and Phoenix. He has a 13th-place average finish between five NHMS Cup starts to go along witha 2016 Truck Series win.

6 #9 Chase Elliott (12/1) - He has a 14th-place average finish in nine Cup starts at NHMS with a best of runner-up last season. He’s led laps in four of his last five starts. He’s still chasing a win after missing six races of points on the season. He needs a win badly. The good news is that when Elliott was out, his replacement at Richmond was Josh Berry who finished second. The car is ready for this. Elliott is desperate.

7 #22 Joey Logano (15/1) - This where “sliced bread” notched his first career win in 2009 on his home track. It was rain-shortened, but who cares. He won again in 2014 and has top-10 in five of his last six starts. He was runner-up at Martinsville and third at St. Louis. Good drive matchup play.

8 #1 Ross Chastain (15/1) - He’s had four Cup starts at NHMS with moderate success finishing eighth the past two seasons. That’s right about where I have him this week – competing well but not winning. But he’s still a good play in driver matchups.

9 #4 Kevin Harvick (10/1) - He leads all active drivers with four NHMS wins, 14 top-fives, and 26 top-10s. This will be his last run at NHMS which also includes a 2007 Xfinity Series win. The reason you bet him in match-ups or odds to win is that he’s been sixth or better in 10 of his last 12 NHMS races which includes three wins. This is a great track for him. He was fifth at both Phoenix and Richmond this season.

10 #6 Brad Keselowski (20/1) - He’s sitting pretty good in 14th position in points but if five more new winners arrive before him he’ll be sitting out of the playoffs again. He can get rid of that notion by simply winning and NHMS is a great place for him. Always has been. He’s second among active drivers with a 10th-place average finish in 22 Cup starts with two wins and nine top-fives. He also has two Xfinity Series wins at NHMS. He was seventh last season there.

Micah Roberts' Top-10 Finish Prediction: 2023 Quaker State 400 at Atlanta

Read my full Atlanta article at Sportsline.com

1 #9 Chase Elliott (10/1) - He won at his home track last season for the first time after leading a race-high 96 laps. His 11.3 average finish is the best among active drivers with at least two starts. I like him to win this race because of desperation. His snowboarding accident cost him six early-season races and he hasn’t been able to make up the difference despite NASCAR giving him a break if he wins one race before the cutoff date. Home cooking, desperate for a win to make the playoffs, it’s all there.

2 #1 Ross Chastain (17/1) - There have been three races at Atlanta using the superspeedway race package as they use at Daytona and Talladega and he’s led in all three of those races. Last season he was runner-up in both Atlanta races and this season he was 13th in March. This is a good spot for him to win and I like his odds at Caesars as well.

3 #6 Brad Keselowski (12/1) - Come on Caesars, he hasn’t even won the last two seasons. How about some 20-to-1 odds to win? Why protect a driver that doesn’t win? Why put a closed sign on him to win? If you see Keselowski at 12-to-1, it’s a strong pass. So my first suggestion is to find some better odds that give the bettors something to work with. Anyway, he’s a two-time winner at Atlanta but what I Like most about him this week is he was second in the March Atlanta race and led 47 laps. This has always been a track he’s been good at.

4 #24 William Byron (14/1) - He’s been waiting for this after going through a dry spot on the schedule. It’s been six races since he won a series-leading third win (tied with Kyle Busch) at Darlington. That win came in a scramble of four straight top-fives after another drought on the schedule. He’s been 14th or better in his last five starts. He won at Atlanta in the spring 2022 race after leading 111 laps. Good price on him this week too.

5 #12 Ryan Blaney (12/1) - I can’t figure him out. He’s got his Coca-Cola 600 win at Charlotte, the sister track of Atlanta, and he’s got four top-fives and nine top-10s. He’s going to make the playoffs now so he’s got to be point hunting, playoff point hunting. He’s going to try and win this race as he did in 2021. He’s led six of his last seven starts at Atlanta and was seventh in the March race.

6 #20 Christopher Bell (16/1) - He’s led laps in two of his last three starts at Atlanta and posted a career-best third place at Atlanta in March, one of his five top-fives this season.

“Atlanta has been a good place for the No. 20 group since the reconstruction of it,” Bell said. “I hope we can continue the momentum. The regular season Championship is heating up.”

7 #7 Corey LaJoie (25/1) - I was hoping for higher odds but the word out is that this is his best race package with Atlanta being his best fit. He was fourth this season in March and was also fifth last spring. But it was last fall when he was leading late at Atlanta that we all thought he had a shot to win his first career Cup race. He finished 21st after leading 17 laps. He’s oozing with confidence with it being Atlanta week.

8 #45 Tyler Reddick (25/1) - He had poor finishes last season at Atlanta but led laps in both and his finishes don’t tell the full story. Fast forward to March of this season early in his run in the 23x11 No. 45, the same car that Kurt Busch finished third with at Atlanta last spring, and Reddick finished fifth. Caesars is giving out nice odds on him to win this week.

9 #23 Bubba Wallace (25/1) - He doesn’t have any top-10s at Atlanta and has led only three laps in his eight starts there, which I find surprising especially in the last three using the superspeedway race package. He needs a win in 2023 and this might be it. Right now, he's in 15th positions in points, but he doesn't have much wiggle room for error.

10 #10 Aric Almirola (30/1) - I’ll have a small bet on him because I don’t want to be that guy when he’s leading, saying, “Dang, I wish I had a couple bucks on him.” I’ve done that twice in the last two years at Atlanta with him when he led laps. His best in the last three with the superspeedway package was eighth last fall, and I’ll bet he really likes Atlanta.

“I have always enjoyed going to Atlanta,’ Almirola said. “It has been a place that we are so fast as a race team. It’s been a place where we have led a lot of laps recently and I look forward to going there knowing we can put ourselves in a position to win. Unfortunately, both times we have led laps we have been wrecked out or cut a tire from the lead toward the end of the race. Things have to go our way, eventually, and I know we can put ourselves back in that position again this weekend.”

 

Micah Roberts' Top-10 Finish Prediction: 2023 Grant Park 220 on Chicago Streets

Check out my full article on the Chicago race at Sportsline.com

1 #19 Martin Truex Jr. (7/1) - He just won at Sonoma leading a race-high 51 laps. His car dominated the end of the race. It was the best set-up he had with a JGR Toyota in the last 10 road races. It was his first top-five in his last 10 road races and also the first time he’s led a lap in his last 10 road races. The roads become more important in today’s NASCAR that Toyota has made huge grounds in setting up a quality ride. They had the best two cars at Sonoma, not by accident, but by making huge grounds in their road racing program. Truex has five road course wins now and might have six by the end of Saturday. He should be the favorite to win this race.

2 #45 Tyler Reddick (13/2) - He’s won three of the last six races on road courses and has led laps in five of his last six. The Toyota brand was on point for his car at COTA but finished 33rd at Sonoma after a decent start. But he never really contended at Sonoma after finishing sixth in the first stage. So the question is will he be set up better than everyone like he was at COTA or do we get the Sonoma set up? He’s batting .500 in his last six road races, so the price is somewhat attractive.

3 #17 Chris Buescher (20/1) - The new car has been his biggest edge on the road courses. He knows what he needs to run well, explains it to his team, and they give him what he needs to compete for a win. His last seven road starts with the new car have seen him finish in the top-10. His consistency in performance and car set-up has been amazing. He was runner-up at Sonoma last season and was fourth this season. He also was eighth at COTA in March. All top-10s, in seven straight of anything, is pretty good, but seven road courses are something that deserves some betting attention.

4 #16 A.J. Allmendinger (10/1) - His two wins in the NASCAR Cup Series have come on road courses, the last coming at the Indy course in 2021. His last six road starts have been amazing with a ninth or better in five of his last six. He was sixth at Sonoma three weeks ago. A new course, he’ll have an edge with attitude, arrogance, and skill.

5 #8 Kyle Busch (12/1) - He might offer the best value with his price-to-performance road racing ratio this week. Can he win? Sure why not, he has three wins already this season. But how about road courses? He has four wins and 18 top-fives over his 49 road starts. How about this season? He has a runner-up each at COTA and Sonoma, two-for-two in second place. It’s obvious the edge on roads that Tyler Reddick had last season in the first year of the NextGen car is still an edge with Busch driving it.

6 #9 Chase Elliott (5/1) - He has the most glorious road racing resume in NASCAR with an eighth-place average finish, seven wins in 26 starts with 15 top-fives, and 470 laps led. But he hasn’t won in his last 10 road races. He hasn’t won the last seven races on road courses using the NextGen car and while it might make sense that NASCAR’s main character wins on a new street circuit I just haven’t seen it yet with the new car. So how can I bet him now as the 5-to-1 favorite to do something he hasn’t done yet? His time is ticking as the countdown to the playoffs behind and he needs a win to make it.

7 #5 Kyle Larson (7/1) - He’s won four of the last 13 road course events but most of that damage was done in 2021 with the old car. He’s only won one road race in his last eight starts, including two very mediocre performances this season. He didn’t lead a lap in his last three and five of his last six road events. His recent history suggests his true price is 18-to-1 so why would I take 7-to-1?

8 #99 Daniel Suarez (25/1) - Seeing his teammate win last week raised the bar for Trackhouse Racing. Now it’s Suarez’s turn and after winning at Sonoma last season he finished fifth at Road America and Watkins Glen. But he finished 27th at COTA and 22nd at Sonoma this season. I would need 35/1 odds to bet him to win.

9 #11 Denny Hamlin (30/1) - The reason you might bet him this week besides the attractive price is because his car was bad-fast at Sonoma when he won the pole and led the first 32 laps, won the first stage, and then got an accident to finish poorly. The top two cars there were JGR Toyotas. They’ve found something in the NextGen car to help them get a better balance in their road setups. Overall, he has one road win and 13 top-fives in 47 road starts.

10 #34 Michael McDowell (25/1) - He was discovered by NASCAR driving on road courses and he’s showing off his skills during his last seven road course races beginning with a third last season at Sonoma and a seventh this season at Sonoma. He’s been 12th or better in six of his last seven road course starts. He’s a player this week as his low odds indicate.

Micah Roberts' Top-10 Finish Prediction: 2023 Ally 400 at Nashville Superspeedway

Read my top-20 thoughts at Nashville on Sportsline.com

1 #1 Ross Chastain (10/1) - He has slowed his roll a bit after a few altercations and perhaps he hasn’t been as aggressive because of the chitter-chatter in the garages regarding him, but this is one I think he goes all out for the win. In 2021, he drove the No. 42 to a runner-up at Nashville and in 2022 with the NextGen car he was fifth. Only two drivers have top-fives in the first two Nashville Cup races and he’s one of them. No wins yet, paying his due respect to his competitors, slowing down to stay out of trouble, that’s all out the window Sunday night. He lets loose and goes for the win hard.

2 #19 Martin Truex Jr. (7/1) - He’s got two wins since May began and he’s finding his way to the front in five of his last seven races. He probably should have won at Darlington where he led 145 laps from the pole until crashing late. That is my first angle. The second angle is that Nashville saw the Toyotas dialed in last season, the first with the NextGen car, with Truex leading 82 laps and winning the first two stages. He’s going to be tough to beat.

“Nashville is really interesting,” Truex said. “We had a really strong car last year. Led a bunch and won both Stage 1 and Stage 2 and was in really good shape. The rain delay came, the track cooled off and changed a lot and we went from us and the 11 (Denny Hamlin) as the two cars to beat to all of a sudden five or more guys right there with us. I don’t remember exactly how we got shuffled out of the lead but I know it had something to do with the pit cycle and pit stops. Once you lose the lead, you lose the advantage, and some other guys got faster as it cooled off when it was so much later at night and we just couldn’t get back to the front. I feel like we’ve been bringing some really good cars to the track and would expect us to be strong at Nashville this weekend. Looking forward to getting back there with our Bass Pro Shops Toyota Camry TRD and hope to be able to have a stronger end to the race than we did last year.”

3 #24 William Byron (8/1) - He’s tied for the Cup lead with three wins and leads everyone with seven top-fives. The first two Nashville Cup wins were won by different Hendrick drivers. Maybe Byron is next up? He was third in his 2021 debut on the concrete track and ran into trouble last season finishing 35th, but I believe he’ll have one of the best cars on race day.

4 #11 Denny Hamlin (8/1) - You can see he’s charging hard just by looking at him leading seven of the last eight races and all kinds of different tracks. Like Truex, JGR Toyotas have things figured out for the stretch run before the playoffs begin. Last season, Hamlin finished sixth after leading a race high 114 laps.

“Nashville is a fun racetrack and a great market for us to go to,” Hamlins said. “The track is a lot different than anywhere else we race at being that size and a concrete surface. I felt like the Next Gen car raced really well there last year. We were able to have a long back-and-forth battle for the lead, and it seemed like there were multiple grooves, so I feel like this week should be no different. I’m looking forward to going there and hopefully, we can put ourselves in contention at the end of the race.”

5 #12 Ryan Blaney (10/1) - He’s notched his first win in three seasons so he’s got that monkey off his back. He’s in the playoffs, now it’s time for gravy. Now it’s time to stand strong and be the aggressor. He was third last season at Nashville.

6 #9 Chase Elliott (8/1) - He sits 27th in points due to missing six early season races and the only way he makes the playoffs is with a win and he won this race last season after leading 42 laps. A Hendrick Chevy has won both Nashville races. He was 11th at the 1-mile high-banked Dover layout on concrete in early May. He’s going to win soon, somewhere, but the question is where.

7 #5 Kyle Larson (5/1) - He has two wins this season coming at Richmond and Martinsville and probably should have two more. He is one of two drivers with two top-fives at Nasgville, winning in 2021 and finishing fourth in the NextGen car last season. This is the perfect spot for him to win because of having lots of grooves and lots of room to maneuver but I can’t bet his inflated odds when he’s had issues that forced him to finish 29th or worse in six races this season.

8 #20 Christopher Bell (10/1) - He started out with five top-fives in his first eight races this season culminating with a Bristol Dirt race win, but no top-fives since then. This should be a good track for and JGR.

“Nashville has one of the most unique surfaces on the circuit and is a big race for the DEWALT team,” Bell said. “It’s important to get momentum headed into the second half of the season.”

9 #45 Tyler Reddick (15/1) - He was 18th in both Nashville races the last two seasons, but that was with RCR. Now he’s basically a subsidiary of JGR while racing for 23x11 Racing which Kurt Busch drove last season to a runner-up finish. I expect Reddick to have his best career finish at Nashville Sunday night.

10 #22 Joey Logano (15/1) - He’s had two top-10 finishes in the two Nashville Cup races but was never a contender to win. It’s been a weird 2023 for him with one Atlanta win and only two top-fives. But why I like him to compete well this week is that he’s always run well on concrete and also won the 2009 Xfinity Series race at Nashville.

 

Micah Roberts Top--10 Finish Prediction: 2023 Toyota/Save-Mart 350 at Sonoma

1 #45 Tyler Reddick (5/1) - He won three of the last five road races while racing for RCR last season and then the lone road race he drove for 23/11 Racing at COTA in March. He led laps in his last five road races. What I find the most remarkable is that JGR has an affiliation with 23/11 Racing, but Reddick was just as good as last season at COTA with a car set-up just the way he likes it but the other Toyotas have not found their road strength yet. Now, having seen that car lead a race-high 41 laps at COTA, I believe and I also believe he’s the best road course racer in NASCAR right now. He’s started fifth or better in his last seven starts. That’s his key here, get out front, stay out front.

2 #8 Kyle Busch (8/1) - He has four road course wins over his Cup career with 17 top-fives and 404 laps led in 48 road starts. He hasn’t led any laps since 2021 at the Charlotte Roval but he’s got RCR power now and last season they were stout on road courses with Reddick. In his first shot on a road course with RCR, he was runner-up at COTA. He has three wins on the season.

3 #24 William Byron (9/1) - He’s got four poles on road courses over his career and he’s probably spent more time in simulators on them than anyone and he was rewarded with his first top-five on the roads in an official race at COTA in March. He was fifth after leading 28 laps. This seems like the best bet to me at Sonoma when considering his momentum on the season with three wins. It’s the summer of Lord Byron!

4 #16 A.J. Allmendinger (16/1) - This is why he’s in NASCAR. This is why his only two wins have come on road courses and the fact that he did it before everyone was allegedly equal with the NextGen car makes it even more impressive. Seven tip-fives in 31 Cup starts. He closed out last season with a 9th, 7th, 2nd, and 4th-place finish. He’s worth a small bet just so the rascal doesn’t beat your portfolio and ruin your betting day.

5 #9 Chase Elliott (5/1) - He was the King of the roads by winning seven of 11 races on them from 2018 to 2021. It’s an awesome feat, but then NASCAR started putting loads of roads on the schedule. Six of them last season after just two of them run for years in NASCAR. Why? Elliott was the biggest star and they gave him more chances to win races and win championships. But he hasn’t won on a road course since 2021 at Road America. Two runner-ups, but no wins. What’s up with that? Maybe NextGen being introduced coupled with other drivers getting better. Either way, I don’t like NASCAR stacking the deck for Elliott by adding more race tracks where he has a decided edge.

6 #2 Austin Cindric (14/1) - He’s third-best among active drivers with a 13.4 average finish in his 10 Cup starts on them. That’s what he did in Xfinity Series racing, that’s what he did to get noticed in Cup. He’s got the natural edge of getting in and out of the corners fastest. He was fifth at Sonoma last season and has been ninth or better in six of his last eight road course races. I’m searching for the best number, and Caesars isn’t it. Shop around.

7 #5 Kyle Larson (5/1) - He won the 2021 Sonoma race for his first win on a road course and then he would win three more in his last 10 races on them. He’s won four times in his last 12 starts on the roads, just another thing in NASCAR that he has learned to dominate. The key here with him is strong Hendrick set-ups for the roads.

8 #48 Alex Bowman (25/1) - This is a good bet based on the 25-to-1 price considering he drives a Hendrick set-up car and that he also finished third at COTA in March. He’s got four top-fives in 25 Cup road races. His best finish was runner-up at COTA in 2021.

9 #17 Chris Buescher (20/1) - You might bet him because he was runner-up at Sonoma last season. I bet him because road racing is in his blood and the reason why he was discovered in NASCAR, but more importantly is because he’s been top-10 in his last six road races in the NextGen car. Mr. Consistency on the roads.

10 #99 Daniel Suarez (16/1) - He dominated last season’s Sonoma race by leading 47 laps for his first career Cup win. And he had a huge entourage in the stands, the Amigos! The reason you might bet him to win again is because of the new car. It’s basically the same as last season and his team had this car dialed in for Sonoma.

Micah Roberts" Top-10 Finish Prediction: 2023 Enjoy Illinois 300

1 #45 Tyler Reddick (15/1) - You can see the progression forward this season by the Hamlin-Jordan team. They’re rising just like the Joe Gibbs Racing Toyotas, competing for wins, and have become a major player in recent races. Last season the No. 45 driven by Kurt Busch finished third at Gateway and Reddick turned that success into a third place at Phoenix. He won the COTA race at Austin, was runner-up in the Bristol Dirt Race, and was fifth last week at Charlotte after leading 28 laps. I bet him to win.

2 #5 Kyle Larson (9/2) - He probably should be closer to 3-to-1 odds here because he’s done nothing but dominate the short-track scene this season. How did he do at Richmond? He won after leading 93 laps. How’d he do at Martinsville? He won after leading 30 laps. How’d he do in the All-Star race at North Wilkesboro? He won after leading a race-high 145 laps. And then finally to finish off the similar track comparison, how’d he do at Phoenix back in March? He settled for fourth after leading a race-high 201 laps. I’ll have a piece of him this week.

3 #20 Christopher Bell (11/1) - He’s a 2016 Truck Series race winner at Gateway and the closest comparison to Gateway might be the 1-mile flat layout at New Hampshire which Bell happened to win at last season. He was fourth at Richmond in April after leading 26 laps and was sixth at Phoenix in March. He’s been given higher odds this week at the track he’s most suited to win at for some reason.

4 #11 Denny Hamlin (10/1) - You know how you know that Hamlin is running well despite just one win on the season? He’s led laps in his last six starts on all types of tracks. He’s showing speed in every race lately and I can see him running well like he does at Richmond where he led 71 laps. I could see him stealing this one.

5 #23 Bubba Wallace (30/1) - This is my biggest payout of the week. He’s rising with three straight top-fives, and one of them isn’t his runner-up at the non-points All-Star Race at North Wilkesboro. His team has everything dialed in and I still have no idea what Wallace said to have mild-mannered Aric Almirola shove him during a red flag last week. Bubba brings that on to himself, but I think he believes in his cockiness and attitude to give him confidence. He also won a 2014 Truck Series race at Gateway.

6 #22 Joey Logano (10/1) - He led 22 laps at Gateway last season and notched the first Cup win ever there. Another good example of why he might do well is that he was runner-up at Martinsville after leading 25 laps. He was also seventh at Richmond. This is a good track for him, but I didn’t bet him. I have to get at least 14-to-1 on him to fire.

7 #1 Ross Chastain (13/1) - He doesn’t have any wins yet in 2023 but he’s racing hard on all types of tracks and is near a win. He was seventh last season at Gateway despite getting minds games played on him by Hamlin who had a big part of having a bad race. He was third at Richmond to begin April. He also won a 2019 Truck Series race at Gateway. I have a piece of him to win this week.

8 #19 Martin Truex Jr. (8/1) - He won from the pole in a 2004 Xfinity Series race at Gateway but the reason you might bet him this week is because his JGR Toyota has been fast for the last two months and gotten better with each race. He won at Dover to kick off May, finished third at Martinsville two weeks earlier, and finished 11th at Richmond after leading 56 laps. He’ll contend for the win, but I need higher odds than Caesars offers to bet.

9 #14 Chase Briscoe (30/1) - The team has been issued an LS-level penalty for counterfeiting a NextGen part. The penalty comes with a loss of 120 drivers and owners points, 25 NASCAR Playoff points, a six-race crew chief suspension, and a $250,000 fine. It’s kind of a big deal. The question is how long they’ve been using this part and did more SHR Fords use the part. They were all really good at Martinsville. Briscoe was fourth at North Wilkesboro and fifth at Martinsville.

10 #8 Kyle Busch (10/1) - He was runner-up at Gateway last season, but that was in the JGR No. 18 Toyota. He now has to use RCR equipment that has won twice already this season. He won the 2009 Xfinity Series race at Gateway. He hasn’t fared well in the shorts tracks and 1-mile races this season, but the guy just works it. He battles. Give me 18-to-1 odds and I’d buy Busch this week.

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Micah Roberts' Top -10 Finish Prediction: 2023 Coca-Cola 600 at Charlotte

1 #19 Martin Truex Jr. (8/1) - He’s got momentum and he’s got three Charlotte wins in his back pocket. And he’s got JGR power. The momentum angle is as real as the Nuggets sweeping the Lakers. Truex went an entire season with the NextGen car without a win but the drought ended when the calendar turned to May. He won at Dover after leading 68 laps, then he finished seventh at Kansas after leading 79 laps, and then he was involved in an accident at Darlington but he was old Truex dominating like the old days and led a race-high 145 laps. Truex is back and he’s going to use all his skills coupled with JGR’s improved set-ups to make up for the lost time of figuring out the NextGen car. I think his team has it figured out.

2 #5 Kyle Larson (9/2) - He notched his first Charlotte win in 2021 in dominating fashion winning the first two stages and closing out for the win. He led 327 of the 400 laps. He was ninth last season in the first year using the NextGen car. Both his wins this season have come on short tracks. He was runner-up at both Las Vegas and Kansas this season. He’ll be in the lead pack racing for the win.

3 #9 Chase Elliott (7/1) - He won the first stage of last year’s Coca-Cola 600, led 86 laps, then had issues and finished 33rd. That ended a four-race run of finishing fourth or better at Charlotte, which includes two runner-ups and his only win in 2020. This would be an ideal spot for him to get his first win of 2023. Shop around for a much better price than what Caesars is offering.

4 #1 Ross Chastain (10/1) - He’s got five top-fives and a series-leading 429 points accumulated over the first 13 races. But no wins yet after winning his first two races last season. He’s competing hard and battling for solid positions weekly. He’s not making any friends, either, but I don’t think he cares. He cares about winning. Last season he led a race-high 153 laps before finishing 15th.

5 #11 Denny Hamlin (13/2) - He started from the pole last season and won his first career Cup race at Charlotte. That’s racing in his adopted hometown since 2006, twice a year until recently, in NASCAR’s hub, and he didn’t win until starting 30 Charlotte races. He won at Kansas to kick off May and those winning set-up notes will help him here. Why not go back-to-back with Coca-Cola 600 wins?

6 #24 William Byron (6/1) - He leads NASCAR with three Cup wins and two of them can be used as a good comparison to Charlotte with Las Vegas and Darlington wins. And he was third at Kansas. His best at Charlotte was a fourth-place in 2021. He was involved in an accident last season there,

7 #8 Kyle Busch (12/1) - He’s had 16 top-fives in 34 starts at Charlotte while leading an incredible 1,486 laps, but only one win. The win came in 2018 when he led an amazing 377 of 400 laps. This is where he raised his family. This is home for him, and yet, just one win. Jimmie Johnson was hogging all the wins with his eight wins over the years. He’ll have a good race.

8 #4 Kevin Harvick (17/1) - This will be his final Coca-Cola 600 and he brings three Charlotte wins in 40 starts, along with 10 top-fives, and 605 laps led. He has been a top-10 finisher in his last five Charlotte starts and he was third last season. Do you know why I placed a small bet on him to win? Because I liked his fight to get runner-up at Darlington two weeks ago. Because I can visualize him getting the win, counting down the laps to go with him in the lead, and it being an emotional win for his family, friends, and fans. I’m a sucker for the storybook ending. If you like Harvick, shop around for the best price.

9 #48 Alex Bowman (18/1) - This is his first race back after missing a few weeks, but I like him to run well despite it being a grueling race, the longest race of the season. He won a 2017 Xfinity Series race at Charlotte and finished 10th last season in Cup and fifth in 2021. He was third at Las Vegas this season, a similar layout to Charlotte.

10 #99 Daniel Suarez (28/1) - Charlotte hasn’t been a good place for him traditionally, but he performed well at similar types of tracks this season at Fontana (4th), Las Vegas (9th), and Kansas (15th).

Read the Top-20 Predictions on Sportsline.com

Micah Roberts' Top-10 Finish Prediction: 2023 NASCAR All-Star Race at North Wilkesboro

1 #5 Kyle Larson (13/2) - The best way to approach handicapping this race since we haven’t seen it since 1996 is to look at what happened at similar tracks with the best being the half-miler in Martinsville and the ¾-miler at Richmond and Larson won on both of those layouts this season. Those are his only two wins of the season and while I don’t like betting the favorite in this race, I cannot deny that they’ve had the best set-up in the two best comparisons for Sunday night. Larson is a two-time All-Star Race winner.

2 #24 William Byron (8/1) - He’s with Hendrick Motorsports and leads all drivers with three wins in 13 races this season. He’s won on all types and won at Martinsville last season after leading 212 laps. That race last season is relevant because the NextGen car hasn’t been changed much.

3 #9 Chase Elliott (11/1) - In 42 Cup starts between Martinsville, Richmond, and Bristol, he’s had 14 top-fives, a win, and a 12.2 average finish. He’s led 1,491 laps on them. His win came at Martinsville in the 2020 COVID season. He has top-10s in his last five starts on the three short tracks. This feels like an event that the winless Elliott could break through. He won the big check in the 2020 season at Bristol.

4 #11 Denny Hamlin (11/1) - The 2015 All-Star Race winner has fast cars now and finished fourth at Martinsville after leading 36 laps last month. He won at Kansas for his first victory of the season, but I like him here more because I think of Richmond the most as a comparison and Richmond is his home track where he has four wins. Altogether between Bristol, Martinsville, and Richmond, he has 100 starts, 11 wins, 44 top-fives, and 5,326 laps led.

5 #19 Martin Truex Jr. (10/1) - Just as Hamlin has found new speed of late, Truex has as well. He’s become a short-track specialist in the last five years as well getting six wins on them. He’s got his win at Dover three weeks ago and he’s been competing up front for win the last two months. This will be a great track for him.

6 #29 Kevin Harvick (9/1) - For an exhibition race with no points awarded, he’ll be racing his former number when he drove for Richard Childress beginning in 2001. The two-time All-Star Race winner will be starting his last All-Star Race and it would be a fantastic story if he won it. And he can win. Stewart-Haas Racing has improved its performance on short tracks this season and Harvick won at Richmond last fall.

7 #8 Kyle Busch (10/1) - The 2017 All-Star Race winner has the best overall (active) record on short tracks with 16 wins, 49 top-fives, and 5,551 laps led over 104 starts between the three short tracks. Richmond is one of his best with six wins and it is the best comparison to North Wilkesboro. The only downside to Busch is that his short track set-up didn’t fare well at Richmond or Martinsville this season with RCR.

8 #14 Chase Briscoe (25/1) - This is one reach, my one piece of fool’s gold I have this week, but I have someone to make the most of my plays this week. Shop around for better odds than Caesars is offering. He’s got that good SHR set-up for short tracks going. His last short track race saw him lead 109 laps at Martinville and finish fifth. His teammate Ryan Preece led a race-high 135 laps in that race as well. Fingers crossed.

9 #20 Christopher Bell (9/1) - He’s got that Joe Gibbs Racing set-up going like Hamlin and Truex and he’ll contend for the win. He was fourth at Richmond in April and he won his first short-track race at Martinsville last fall. As much as I like him, his odds scared me off him as one of eight drivers posted at 10-to-1 or less. Give me 15-to-1 and I’m a buyer in Bell.

10 #1 Ross Chastain (10/1) - Thank you Mr. Chastain for adding some spice to a NASCAR Cup Series that has become a bit bland. Everyone likes each other. The drivers are all buddies and gentlemen on the track. Except for Chastain. He doesn’t follow the unwritten rules, he goes by his own creed and that creed is to race as hard as he can to get ahead of the driver in front of him no matter who it is. All the drivers want to blame him for something, all the drivers dislike him. But I don’t care, I like him and what he’s doing, and I might even get a Chastain t-shirt. For comparison, Chastain led 16 laps at Richmond in April and finished third, and was 13th at Martinsville after leading 31 laps. Captain Chaos is the best intangible added to NASCAR lately, other than racing again at North Wilkesboro.

Read my entire story on the All-Star Race on Sportsline.com

Micah Roberts' Top-10 Finish Prediction: 2023 Goodyear 400 at Darlington

1 #19 Martin Truex Jr (7/1) - Last season he caught the wrath of the Lady in Black in both races when it appeared he had a winning car. It was his first two attempts using the NextGen car but after leading 28 laps and finishing second in the second stage he got caught up in an accident and finish 24th. In the fall event, he was second in the second stage and led 48 laps before a water pump messed his day up and he finished 31st. But he’s really good at this track. He’s won two times, the last in 2021 when he won the first two stages and led a race-high 247 laps. Toyota has come to the rescue with the NextGen car 2.0 and now they’ve won the last two races after both he and Hamlin has been in long winless droughts.

2 #11 Denny Hamlin (6/1) - I don’t know what it is, but Denny’s got some dirty laundry over the Lady in Black. Plus, she has a crush on him. He’s learned to sweet talk her in a way that apparently no other driver knows how to do. He’s had an answer for every obstacle she’s laid before him. In 21 Cup starts there, he leads all active drivers with a 7.5 average finish. He also leads with four active wins. In addition, he also has 12 top-fives and 16 top-10s. He’s led laps in his last six there and 11 of his last 13 races there. And the best notation for this week is that he just won last week at Kansas last week. Toyota got their cars faster at just the right time.

3 #9 Chase Elliott (14/1) - He’s currently 29th in the NASCAR standings after missing six races due to breaking his leg, but he’s still higher than Austin Dillon if that tells you something. Elliott has a rocky relationship with the Lady in Black with three top-fives and six finishes of 19th or worse. But he did win a 2014 Xfinity Series race there. I like him to run well and go for the win because of needing a win to make the playoffs.

4 #24 William Byron (10/1) - He has two top-fives in nine Cup starts at Darlington and led 74 laps last season between the two races but finished 13 and eighth. He’s tied for the series lead with two wins and five top-fives. This should be a good track for him.

5 #5 Kyle Larson (5/1) - He’s second among active drivers with a 9.2 average finish in 10 Cup starts at Darlington. But he hasn’t won yet, but he has been runner-up three times and third twice. He’s led 686 laps. But his first run with the NextGen car last season had him finish 36th in May and 12th in September.

6 #45 Tyler Reddick (9/1) - He’s part of the upward movement with Toyota and he also has been sweet talking with the Lady. He was runner-up in this race last season and third in the fall while driving the No. 8 RCR Chevy. He’s challenged himself to learn the track well and it’s paid off. He is going to do some rim-riding.

7 #20 Christopher Bell (10/1) - In his first five starts at Darington, his best finish was 11th-place, but last season he brought it strong with a sixth-place in May and a fifth-place in September. A Toyota has won eight of the last 14 races at Darlington. His JGR Toyota has five top-fives, the most among Toyota drivers, and tied for the most in the series.

8 #1 Ross Chastain (10/1) - He’s led laps in his last four races at Darlington and had a career-best third-place in 2021, but between his light odds offered by Caesars and making enemies of almost everyone on the track, I think he’s got a better chance to be wrecked on a difficult track than he does to win. Last week at Kansas, rookie Noah Gragson had a beef with Chastain after the race. Gragson grabbed a handful of Chastain’s firesuit, Chastain said “don’t” twice, and then when Gragson didn’t stop, Chastain clocked Gragson with a straight right with authority to the jaw. I loved it, even though Gragson is from Las Vegas. Chastain is making NASCAR must-watch TV while all the other drivers don’t like him.

9 #23 Bubba Wallace (30/1) - He had his best finish at Darlington in the last race there on Labor Day weekend with ninth-place after leading four laps. The Lady finally gave him a pass after being 16th or worse in his first eight Cup starts there. He had accumulated enough Darlington Stripes to pass go or something. But this week, he’ll be fast. He’ll be part of that Toyota surge we’ve seen over the last month. He’ll be contending for most of the race.

10 #8 Kyle Busch (10/1) - He leads all active drivers with 899 laps led over his 22 Cup starts at Darlington, but only has one win there and that came in 2008. He has only six top-fives there. The Lady has put some trickery on him. Last fall he led 155 laps before an engine failed him. His last three starts there have been 30th or worse. The good news for him this week, besides his two wins already in 2023, is that the No. 8 RCR Chevy was runner-up at Darlington in this race last season and finished up third in the fall.

Read My full Top-20 Finish Prediction on Sportsline.com