Micah Roberts’ Top 10 Driver Ratings
Coke Zero 400
Daytona International Speedway
Saturday, July 7, 2012 - 4:46 pm (PDT)
Rating Driver Odds Practice 1 Practice 2 Qualified Daytona 500*
1. Matt Kenseth 10/1 14th 12th 1st 1st
Led final 37 laps to win second Daytona 500; Bobby Allison last driver to sweep Daytona in 1982.
2. Dale Earnhardt Jr. 12/1 24th 9th 25th 2nd
Two-time Daytona winner, seven-time restrictor-plate race winner; using Daytona 500 chassis.
3. Kevin Harvick 12/1 28th DNP 12th 7th
Two-time Daytona winner averaging finish of 15th; using winning 2010 Coke Zero 400 chassis
4. Greg Biffle 12/1 5th 15th 5th 3rd
2003 winner, third in two of past five Daytona events; using Daytona and Talladega (5th) chassis.
5. Kyle Busch 12/1 33rd 16th 23rd 17th
2008 winner, fourth among active drivers in laps led (275); runner-up finish at Talladega in May.
6. Brad Keselowski 12/1 15th DNP 10th 32nd
Two-time Talladega winner with a best Daytona finish of 15th last summer; using new chassis.
7. Clint Bowyer 15/1 22nd DNP 30th 11th
Two-time Talladega winner; 14.8 average finish at Daytona; using sixth-place Talladega chassis.
8. Carl Edwards 12/1 12th 8th 13th 8th
No restrictor-plate wins, but has top-10 finish in seven of past 10 Daytona starts; new chassis.
9. Denny Hamlin 15/1 DNP DNP 24th 4th
Led three times for 57 laps in Daytona 500 and three times for eight laps at Talladega in May.
10. Jamie McMurray 25/1 13th 1st 31st 31st
Three of his six career wins have come in restrictor-plate races; using Daytona 500 chassis.
* Results from the Daytona 500 held February 26, 2012.
Note: Only 24 drivers participated in practice 2 opting not to risk damaging their primary car. Hamlin sat out both of Thursday’s practices with a strained back.
Odds courtesy of the LVH Super Book.
Micah Roberts, a former sports book director, has been setting NASCAR lines in Las Vegas since 1995. For more Roberts insights and post-practice analysis on the race, go to VegasInsider.com or follow on Twitter: MicahRoberts7.
Coke Zero 400 Starting Lineup
Betting Notes
I’m always excited about any restrictor-plate race from a fan aspect because there is so much speed and strategy involved, but from the wagering point of view, it’s one of my least favorites.
I like betting any proposition where I feel have a decided advantage. In most NASCAR races, I feel I have that advantage shifted to my side due to practices, past history and other little intangibles.
In plate racing, there is no advantage and any of the drivers can win the race. You also have to deal with the volatile nature of the track, a monstrous track which has no problem taking out a large portion of the field.
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| Who needs this type of regular stuff happening when betting? (Getty) |
There’s no fun betting a driver to win when all 43 drivers have a similar chance. I want it narrowed down to four or five drivers and I can’t do it at Daytona or Talladega. I like the Roush drivers and Earnhardt Jr to win, but wouldn’t be shocked at all if Jamie McMurray, Joey Logano or Kurt Busch pulled into the winners circle Saturday night. Or even crazier, Dave Blaney or David Ragan.
This really is like throwing darts and even though there have been some big payouts in the last three years of plate races, I really don’t feel like paying to find the needle in the haystack. So I’ll root for my initial bet on Earnhardt Jr and play a few matchups that have plus-money, and it really doesn’t matter who they are; give me +110 or higher and I‘ll take any driver.
In all, only 25% of my weekly bank roll will be put into action for this weeks race. Hopefully the winner will be Junior, but I’m not counting on it. Sorry I couldn’t offer more advice with some confidence, but I can’t mask the truth…I’m not confident. Roll the dice and enjoy the race!
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