Showing posts with label predictions. Show all posts
Showing posts with label predictions. Show all posts
Wednesday, October 26, 2022
Thursday, February 11, 2021
Daytona Betting Preview: 2021 Daytona 500
HANDICAPPING NASCAR AT DAYTONA
In the previous 62 Daytona 500s, no driver has won three straight of NASCAR’s most prestigious race and we haven’t seen anyone get the opportunity since Sterling Marlin tried in the 1996 event. But 2021 gives us a chance to watch history as Denny Hamlin will try to win his third straight Daytona 500 on Sunday and he’s fully aware of what is at stake.
"I hope that I'm around (don't wreck early), that I give myself a chance to make history because ultimately, that's what I'm here for," Hamlin said. "Making history, doing something that no one else has ever done, that's what motivates me to want to get this one."
He also will be shooting for his fourth Daytona 500 which would tie him with Cale Yarborough for second-most behind Richard Petty’s seven wins. He has a chance to make history and that’s the main theme coming into the 63rd running of the race.
There are only five active drivers other than Hamlin to win a Daytona 500 and all of them have one win each. Some of the best superspeedway drivers, or those from the restrictor-plate era, have retired and taken their secrets of manipulating the air in the draft. But the 40-year-old Hamlin learned in his younger years by watching the greats and finally won a superspeedway race in his ninth season racing on them at Talladega in 2014.
Now he’s got five superspeedway wins, winning two of four last season -- top-four in all four -- closing out with a Talladega win. He led laps in all four superspeedway races last season and used different strategies in all. He’d either get upfront and lead to keep the ‘Big One’ behind him or fall behind to keep an eye in front of him with enough room to avoid the inevitable pile up that always happens on superspeedways. He’s been successful at both.
Denny Hamlin seeks a third consecutive Daytona 500 title on Sunday afternoon. (AP)
He’s also got Joe Gibbs Racing equipment which has worked hard to be competitive in the opener at Daytona. Matt Kenseth led a bunch of laps on superspeedways for JGR, Erik Jones got a summer Daytona win in 2018, and Kyle Busch has the top Daytona rating (91.1) among all drivers since NASCAR's Loop Data started keeping track in 2005. Hamlin is rated No. 2 (88.7) over that span.
In Wednesday morning’s first practice before qualifying, JGR equipment posted the top-five speeds with the new 2021 entry, Bubba Wallace, fastest with his Michael Jordan-Hamlin-owned No. 23.
The point is that it hasn’t all been Hamlin, but he’s been the one to use his skills the best and get out front lately. He uses the side-draft better than anyone and he blocks while leading better than anyone which is why we’re talking about him possibly winning for the third straight season. The car rules and race packages are the same as 2020, although Hamlin’s winning Daytona 500 car from last season is on display at Daytona USA.
NASCAR CUP ODDS - DAYTONA
- Denny Hamlin +800
- Chase Elliott +1000
- Joey Logano +1000
- Ryan Blaney +1000
- Brad Keselowski +1400
- William Byron +1400
- More NASCAR Futures
- (Odds Subject to Change)
William Hill sportsbooks have him listed as the 8-to-1 favorite while Circa Sports updated numbers Wednesday have him favored at 11-to-1 odds, the best number in the world.
I’ve been saying for years to be careful and be smart wagering every time there’s a superspeedway race. It’s repetitive but I feel it’s important to remind you all that the volatility of these two tracks changes the true driver rating for each driver because they’re more susceptible to being caught up in a wreck at no fault of their than other tracks.
That’s why I say ditch the props and driver match-ups, but spend some more than usual on odds to win mixing in weighted amounts on a couple of favorites like Hamlin or Ryan Blaney (14/1), middle of the board drivers like Kyle Busch (19/1), Wallace (28/1), Chris Buescher (51/1), and a long shot like Jones (60/1) or Ryan Newman (60/1).
The sportsbooks know this as well which is why they don’t offer any huge odds on the long shots but offer big odds on the favorites. It’s the randomness, the crapshoot of it all where any driver can win. As the wrecks start happening, you start throwing bet tickets away, but for the final five laps, you may have three of the 10 drivers in the lead pack and have just as good of a shot as any.
Last season I had tickets on Hamlin and Newman in that situation and I got lucky, but I believed in Newman and the Roush equipment for superspeedways. I still do to an extent with Newman and Buescher, who finished third in the Daytona 500.
Let’s talk about some contenders to derail Hamlin’s quest for history beginning with his new employee Wallace who William Hill is offering at 28-to-1 odds.
DAYTONA 500 CONTENDERS
The Toyota’s have the least amount of friends and the drivers always choose manufacturers of their own to draft with which is all the more reason to be astounded by Hamlin’s success. The Fords and Chevrolets all have more cars on the track than Toyota. But Hamlin just got a new wingman with Wallace in case Martin Truex, Jr., Busch, or Christopher Bell aren’t around to push him.
Thursday, February 4, 2021
2021 Busch Clash at Daytona Road Course Betting Preview
The 2021 NASCAR Cup season has its first event scheduled Tuesday night with the Busch Clash racing on the 14-turn, 3.61-mile road course for the first time since the non-points invitational event began on the Superspeedway in 1979.
It’s 21 of the best drivers getting a head start over the rest of the field in what is going the most road coursey NASCAR season ever with seven road races planned among the 36 points-paying races. I’m not sure how I feel about it, but a prominent Las Vegas bookmaker was excited about the change.
NASCAR CUP BETTING RESOURCES
BUSCH CLASH PICKS
- Date: Tuesday, Feb. 9, 2021
- Venue: Daytona International Speedway
- Location: Daytona, Florida
- Television-Time: FS1, 7:00 p.m. ET
“It’s the best racing (road courses) in NASCAR right now,” said Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook manager Ed Salmons who made Chase Elliott the 9/4 favorite (Bet $100 to win $225) to win the Clash. “Ovals without tire dropoff is so boring.”
Last season with no practice it was the Kevin Harvick and Denny Hamlin show combining to win 10 of the 20 races on tracks using the race package featuring engines producing 550 horsepower. The cars used Tuesday night will be the 750 hp package.
I usually don’t get a craving for road racing until May after seeing only left turns for a couple of months.
I crave the crapshoot of Daytona in the Clash, the Duels, and the Daytona 500 after a long winter of no racing. Salmons again came with the logic that made sense.
“We already have the duels and 500, why do we need another wreck-fest,” he said.
Chase Elliott is a solid contender on the NASCAR series and is the favorite to win Tuesday's Busch Clash from Daytona. (AP)
HANDICAPPING NASCAR AT DAYTONA
Whatever the case may be, I think we can all agree we’re just happy to see NASCAR back after an improbable 2020 season that fought through a pandemic to be the first live sport in action on network TV after the USA shutdown.
Even better is being able to bet it with relatively no changes to the cars that raced last season. All the notes we made from last season should apply to 2021.
The key thing about road races is that it’s an elite company with road skills -- turning right and left -- that wins on them, especially lately with Chase Elliott and Martin Truex Jr. winning all five of them the last two seasons.
NASCAR CUP ODDS - BUSCH CLASH
- Chase Elliott 9/4
- Martin Truex Jr. 4/1
- Denny Hamlin 10/1
- Kevin Harvick 14/1
- Kyle Busch 14/1
- Brad Keselowski 14/1
- Ryan Blaney 14/1
- Joey Logano 14/1
- Alex Bowman 14/1
- William Byron 14/1
- Kurt Busch 25/1
- Matt DeBenedetto 30/1
- Aric Almirola 80/1
- Chris Buescher 80/1
- Erik Jones 80/1
- Tyler Reddick 100/1
- Ryan Newman 100/1
- Ty Dillon 100/1
- Austin Dillon 100/1
- Cole Custer 100/1
- Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 100/1
- More NASCAR Futures
- (Odds per SuperBook - Subject to Change)
So let’s break down a few of the top contenders to win on Tuesday night using odds posted by the SuperBook.
BUSCH CLASH - DRIVERS TO WATCH
#9 CHASE ELLIOTT (9/4)
The 2020 Cup Champion has started 12 races on road courses and won five of them making him the active leader in road wins. He won the inaugural NASCAR Cup race on Daytona’s road course last season leading a race-high 34 of the 65 laps. He has won the last four races on road courses, so yes, he’s the best and may still have value at +225.
#19 MARTIN TRUEX JR. (4/1)
He’s been seventh or better in his last five road course starts and his 2019 Sonoma win was the last driver to win one since Elliott hogged all the trophies. He was third on the Daytona road course last season. He’s been seventh or better in 10 of his last 12 road course races.
#11 DENNY HAMLIN (10/1)
His 2016 win at Watkins Glen remains his only road course Cup win, but he seems to be racing for the win in all of them the last five years -- seven top-fives in his last 12 road course starts which includes runner up on the Daytona course last season.
#4 KEVIN HARVICK (14/1)
In 42 Cup races on the roads he's averaged a 12th-place finish with two wins and 10 top-fives. His last win on one was 2017 at Sonoma. In his Daytona road course debut last season he was 17th.
“We ran poorly there last year, so it’s definitely been on our radar to get to the Busch Clash just because we have a number of things we want to incorporate into our car,” Harvick said. “To be able to have those reps and kind of do a quality control check on where you’re at with your race car gives you a lot going into week two of the season to make sure you’re competitive and where you need to be.”
For whatever it’s worth, Harvick’s sponsor is Busch beer, the sponsor of the Clash.
READ MORE HERE.....TOP-5 FINISH PREDICTION ON VEGASINSIDER.COM
Saturday, March 25, 2017
Final Fontana Driver Ratings: 2017 Auto Club 400
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| Six-time California winner Jimmie Johnson is using back-up chassis, but it looked great in Saturday's practice. |
Auto Club 400
Auto Club (California) Speedway
Sunday, March 26, 2017 - 3:50 pm ET
RATED DRIVER ODDS PRAC 1 QUALIFIED PRAC 2 PRAC 3
1. Kyle Larson (7/1) 1st 1st 22nd 5th
2014 runner-up in rookie year; runner-up in past three races (Atlanta, Las Vegas, Phoenix)
2. Martin Truex Jr (10/1) 11th 4th 7th 2nd
No top-5s in 16 starts; best 10-consecutive lap avg in practice 3. Won at Las Vegas.
3. Chase Elliott (7/1) 12th 13th 2nd 1st
Sixth-place in first start last year; 2nd best 10-consecutive lap avg in practice 3.
4. Kevin Harvick (6/1) 3rd 7th 6th 8th
2011 winner, runner-up past two years. Chassis; second at Charlotte, Darlington, won at Kansas.
5. Jimmie Johnson (10/1) 24th 37th 4th 16th
Six-time winner, including last season; 2nd best 10 consecutive lap avg in practice 2.
6. Joey Logano (7/1) 5th 35th 12th 6th
Career-best third in 2013, fourth last season; sixth at Atlanta and fourth at Las Vegas.
7. Erik Jones (30/1) 18th 14th 1st 4th
Third-place in 2015 Xfinity Series race; best 10-consecutive lap avg in practice 2.
8. Denny Hamlin (20/1) 2nd 2nd 18th 19th
Career-best third twice, including last season; looks to be the best among Gibbs cars.
9. Brad Keselowski (7/1) 10th 3rd 5th 13th
2015 winner after finishing 18th or worse in first six starts; ninth last season.
10. Matt Kenseth (15/1) 8th 6th 13th 7th
Three-time winner, the last coming in 2009 with Roush Racing; 19th or worse past two years.
11. Jamie McMurray (50/1) 4th 8th 14th 20th
Three top-5s in 24 starts, the last coming in 2005; he practiced as well as teammate Larson.
12. Ryan Blaney (25/1) 7th 19th 8th 3rd
35th in first Cup start last season, but practiced extremely well; finished seventh in Las Vegas.
Note: Good handicapping references to apply are results from Atlanta and Las Vegas this year, as well as last fall's Michigan race which used new low downforce package that is used now.
Opening odds courtesy of Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook.
Micah Roberts, a former Las Vegas sports book director, has been setting auto racing odds in Las Vegas since 1994.
Sunday, May 15, 2016
2016 AAA Dover Betting Notes
Johnson has won 10 of 28 starts on the high-banked, one-mile concrete layout, including a sweep during his 2002 rookie year — he won only three races that season.
Johnson has won seven of the past 14 races there and three of five, including last May, so his 7-2 odds to win Sunday’s NASCAR Sprint Cup AAA 400 Drive for Autism look attractive.
There’s such a huge sample size, and with so many changes to rules, aero-packages and body designs, the only relevant constant over Johnson’s 28 races has been the driver, crew chief, owner and Dover’s concrete known as “The Monster Mile.”
The only reason Johnson isn’t in the 5-2 or 3-1 range is because his competition has narrowed the gap. Between all the Joe Gibbs Racing drivers, Team Penske and a portion of Stewart Haas’ stable, Johnson has his hands full.
Last spring at Dover, Kevin Harvick gave up the lead to Johnson with 23 laps left and finished second. It was Johnson’s only laps led of the day. In the fall race, Harvick led 355 of 400 laps and won at Dover for the first time in 30 starts. He’s using that same chassis this weekend.
Read More Here.......LVRJ.com
Final top-10 Dover Ratings following all practices
Saturday, April 9, 2016
Duck Commander 500 Betting Notes
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| Kyle Busch might be a good bet Saturday at Texas. |
What makes Johnson so great despite not having times this weekend close to Truex Jr.? How about owning a track record six wins, which include wins in the past three Texas races, four of the last five and five of the last seven. He's also led a track record 1,023 laps.
Johnson is on a completely different level from everyone else and if your questioning this being a new year, think again. On the three tracks that figured prominently with the new low downforce package, he won twice (Atlanta and Fontana) and was third at Las Vegas while leading the most laps. He truly is Superman and there has been no cryptonite for any of his competitors lately.
Kyle Busch on fire
Kyle Busch is one of the few drivers to break Johnon's Texas roll with a win in the spring of 2013, and he's on quite a roll lately dating back to the end of his 2015 championship season. He's finished fifth or better in nine of his last 10 starts, which include wins at Homestead's 1.5-mile layout and last week at Martinsville's half-mile. One of those top-fives was a fourth-place finish at Texas last fall, which made him fourth or better there in five of his past six starts. If your looking for the top contender to beat Johnson, the Las Vegan is it.
Dillon creeping closer
A Richard Childress Racing driver hasn't won at Texas since Jeff Burton in 2007, the teams only win there, but Childress' grandson Austin Dillon looks to be really close and his 30-to-1 odds look enticing. In Friday's final practice session, Dillon has the best 10-consecutive lap average which means he's going to be very fast on long runs. When cars start to slow, Dillon's car is going to be passing. He looks like a great play in driver match-ups, such as getting +110 at the Westgate against Chase Elliott.
Mr. Consistency
If your looking for a driver you can almost guarantee will have a top-10 finish this week, Brad Keselowski is your guy. For match-up bettors, they love consistency on a certain type of track and Keselowski's crew has it figured out on 1.5-mile layouts. He finished ninth or better in all 11 races on 1.5-mile tracks last season and has started the trend again this season by finishing ninth at Atlanta and winning at Las Vegas. The Westgate had -140 in a match-up against Dale Earnhardt Jr. and -130 against Carl Edwards. As for the possibility of winning his first Texas race, he's a good candidate at 8-to-1 to do so. He's finished fifth or better in his last three Texas starts and led 312 of 334 laps there last fall before Johnson passed him with four laps to go. Crazy! Even when Johnson doesn't have the best car he wins.
Roush duo worth a shot?
Roush Fenway Racing drivers Ricky Stenhouse Jr. and Greg Biffle are each 300-to-1 to win and while they're not quite in the win mode yet, they are showing signs of rapid improvement on the big horsepower tracks that a long shot play may be justified soon. Roush has a track best nine wins, two won by Biffle, but the last came in 2012. Biffle had the sixth fastest lap during Thursday's practice. Stenhouse Jr. has showed the best on these type of tracks and has gotten better with each chance. He was 17th at Atlanta, 12th at Las Vegas and fifth at Fontana, and will start fifth tonight.
Friday, January 8, 2016
Las Vegas posts 2016 Daytona 500 odds
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| Daytona 500 odds are posted at several Las Vegas sports books. |
As always with restrictor-plate tracks, you have to come in with the handicapping mindset that almost anything can happen. It’s the type of racing that gives up to 38 of 43 drivers a legitimate shot at winning. The cars are almost all equal and the draft really closes the advantage some of the power teams have at the 32 other races. Who thought Trevor Bayne could win the 2011 Daytona 500 at 100-to-1 odds? Not many, but it’s the perfect example of why you can discount too many drivers’ chances of winning.
Because so many drivers have a real shot at winning in the four plate races between Daytona and Talladega, you’re not going to get great odds on quality longshots, but at the same time, you’re going to get nice value on the favorites. At Atlanta, Martinsville or Charlotte, you can get Danica Patrick at around 300-to-1 odds, but in plate races she’s in the 60-to-1 range.
MORE: NASCAR bold predictions for 2016 | NASCAR's headliners in 2016
The only major change in the rules package as it applies to restrictor-plate tracks is a reduction of size in restrictor plates from 29/32 inches to 57/64 which will give the drivers almost 10 more horsepower. Everything else will be relatively the same last season which should give you a head start on who to key on.
Practices will mean very little to the equation after they’ve run, so there is nothing wrong with firing away on five or six drivers right now before the prices change. Here’s a look at a few quality candidates to win using the best price offered between the Westgate and MGM.
Read More Here.....TheLinemakers.com
Saturday, July 18, 2015
Final New Hampshire Practice Notes and Driver Ratings: Edwards is real fast!
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| Edwards looks very sporty this week with new haircut and speed. |
Kevin Harvick had the fastest lap (132.0.94 mph) during Saturday's early practice with Edwards third (131.888), but it was Edwards who showed the most continued speed over long runs with the best 10-consecutive lap average among the 25 drivers that ran as many in a row.
During the final practice session (happy hour), Edwards secured his top rating by not only having the fastest lap (133.110), but also having the best 10-consecutive lap average among 31 drivers. Kyle Busch, Harvick and Denny Hamlin were just behind Edwards in the average lap category.
Edwards has never won at New Hampshire over his career which is surprising because he's been very good on similar flat tracks at Phoenix and Richmond. But Sunday could be his day.
The most surprising part of all the practices was how good all the Joe Gibbs cars were because they weren't very good at Phoenix and Richmond earlier this year with Matt Kenseth's seventh-place at Richmond being the best finish between the two. Last week all four cars finished in the top-five, but that was with a temporary new aero-package.
Things were supposed to go back to normal this week with Harvick and Busch, the dominant Phoenix and Richmond winners, being bad to the bone again. And they were both fast during practices, and might even win the race, but Gibbs has something clicking right now. They've got things figured out.
Read More Here.....Final Driver Ratings
Wednesday, May 13, 2015
All-Star Race Preview: Same old story with 1.5-mile tracks this season
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| Kevin Harvick favored to win All-Star race |
There are 17 drivers eligible to participate in the 110-lap All-Star race with three other drivers having two different ways to become eligible. The winners of the two 20-lap segments in Friday's Showdown advance and another will make it by fan voting. The All-Star race is split up into four 25-lap segments followed by the final 10-lap dash for the cash where no jalopies are in the way.
With bad cars out of the equation, the favorites’ probability to win on the high-banked 1.5-mile track just went up, which means Kevin Harvick and Jimmie Johnson are going to be harder than ever to slay. The duo has combined to win the past seven races on 1.5s with Johnson taking three of four this season. Harvick won at Las Vegas and finished second in the other three.
Those two also have some great history at Charlotte with Johnson winning seven times, including last years Coca-Cola 600, and he’s also won the All-Star race four times, the last coming in 2013. Harvick has won at Charlotte three times, including last fall, and won the All-Star race in 2007. Good luck picking against them.
However, Jamie McMurray came away with the win last season and paid out at 40/1 odds (Bet $100 to win $4,000). It was his only win of 2014 and he didn‘t get credit for one officially, but he did take home a big $1 million check. Last season, McMurray hadn’t shown much on 1.5s prior to the All-Star race and the Penske Racing and Jeff Gordon were running extremely well. Johnson and Harvick were the co-favorites at 5/1.
Is there somebody like McMurray in this years race?
The most likely driver to give the No. 4 and No. 48 a run for their money this week is Martin Truex Jr. but he’s not even eligible for the All-Star race. He has to either win the Sprint Showdown qualifying race or get voted in by the fans. Dale Earnhardt Jr has already tweeted out to his bazillion followers that Truex Jr. is his vote. Truex Jr. should be expected to win the Showdown, which features all the jalopies.
Kyle Larson would be the most likely other candidate to advance and Danica Patrick will probably win the fan vote if Truex Jr. doesn't need it because of winning.
Last week at Kansas, Truex Jr. led a race-high 95-laps and fell victim to rain delays and late cautions. He absolutely dominated the race, but finished ninth after getting stuck behind Kurt Busch who had a bad final restart.
Dale Earnhardt Jr. won this event as a rookie in 2000, but nothing since. You won’t be getting great odds him, maybe 10/1, but so far so good for the No. 88 on 1.5s this season where he’s finished fourth or better in all four events -- third-place three times. He’s been just a notch below Harvick and Johnson.
The funny thing about all three of Johnson’s wins is that he took over the race at the end of all three. He’s a closer is every sense and leads the series with the most wins. It’s one of his better career performances just because he wasn’t stellar in practices like he was in years past and won. His 23 wins on 1.5-mile tracks is a NASCAR record.
Read More Here....Top-5 Finish Prediction
Saturday, February 21, 2015
Daytona 500 Post-Practice Driver Ratings: Hendrick and Gibbs cars top the list
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| Not sure what to think of Keselowski, but I'm stuck with him already |
Perhaps the best source of information is how teams performed at restrictor-plate races last season because it’s apparent not much has changed. The Joe Gibbs Racing and Hendrick Motorsports cars look fast -- just like in 2014. Their performances over the past week have just strengthened a belief most of us already had.
While my thoughts from last week haven’t changed too much, it’s fair to say I’m not as high as I once was on Brad Keselowski and I’m not as down as I was on Jimmie Johnson.
Initially, I had Keselowski as a driver who could break through the JGR/HMS stranglehold, but after watching him not do much of anything the past week, I have to back off a bit. I’ve already placed some wagers on him, and there’s nothing I can do about that now, but I’m in a position where I have to bet a little more on some other candidates than I would have liked.
Johnson isn’t one of those drivers I’ll be looking to get new wagers on, but I definitely won’t be picking on him anymore. I already made a few matchup wagers against him, but watching the second Budweiser Duel race – where Johnson hung onto the lead for the final 23 laps by masterfully erasing any momentum from either line chasing him – gave me the nauseous feeling that I had made some bad bets by going against the No. 48.
More on Daytona 500: Props posted at Westgate
Johnson still has some poor recent history at Daytona, as he’s finished 20th or worse in seven of his past 10 starts. But the way he battled in the Bud Duel – when he was already locked into the front row – was impressive.
Although these cars are almost identical to last season, I don’t remember it being as hard to pass at Daytona. Between the Sprint Unlimited and two Bud Duel races, it was as though every driver behind the leader was stuck in quicksand. They couldn't propel themselves past the leader. Matt Kenseth held his grip on the Sprint Unlimited lead for the final six laps, Dale Earnhardt Jr. held on for the final 17 laps in the first Bud Duel, and then Johnson for the final 23 laps in the second Duel.
In all three cases, an experienced driver knew how to derail an oncoming rush by manipulating the air flow – that skill figures to be huge on Sunday.
Also in all three cases, the winners came from JGR or HMS and the drivers chasing them came from from JGR or HMS as well.
The biggest breakthrough to matching class with JGR and HMS was Martin Truex Jr., who was second in the Sprint Unlimited and fifth in the second Bud Duel. He’s had only one top-10 finish in 19 points-paying Daytona races over his career, but it’s clear by his performances over the last week that he’s up for the challenge of slaying giants on Sunday.
Here’s a look at our final ratings for the Daytona 500, which project each driver’s chance at winning. As with any plate race, it’s a crap shoot. Up to 35 drivers have a legitimate shot to win, as opposed to next week at Atlanta where maybe only 15 have a chance.
Enjoy the race and 2015 NASCAR season!
Read More Here.........Final Daytona 500 Driver Ratings
Wednesday, February 18, 2015
Joe Gibbs Racing favored to win 2015 Budweiser Duels
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| Joe Gibbs Racing drivers are favorites to win Bud Duels |
After watching Saturday's Sprint Unlimited and Sunday's qualifying session, it's fair to say the cars are running almost exactly like they did in 2014. In both events, we saw tempers flare with several wrecks, and with some drivers having to stay aggressive to give themselves a chance to make the Daytona 500, it's a good bet we'll see a couple more wrecks.
Daytona forecast: Wrecks, wrecks, more wrecks
Unlike in the Sprint Unlimited, the cars used in the Budweiser Duels will be the same ones used in the Daytona 500. Those involved in a wreck will have to use a back-up, and no driver wants that.
You might think we’d have more drivers win one of the Budweiser Duels and Daytona 500 in the same year, but it’s only happened nine times since 1959. The last driver to accomplish the feat was Matt Kenseth in 2012. Before him it was Dale Earnhardt Jr. in 2004, and Dale Earnhardt did it in 1998 -- the only year he ever won the Daytona 500. Cale Yarborough is the only driver to do it twice (1977, 1984). The first driver to do it was Fireball Roberts in 1962. Others include Bill Elliott (1985), Bobby Allison (1988) and Sterling Marlin (1995).
Last season we saw Joe Gibbs Racing drivers Denny Hamlin and Matt Kenseth sweep the Bud Duels. Hamlin also won the Sprint Unlimited last year, and Kenseth won it Saturday. Between those two, Kyle Busch and new teammate Carl Edwards, they look to be the best bet to get at least one of the wins. Hamlin, Busch and Edwards are the top three favorites to win in Duel No. 2.
Read More Here........Budweiser Duel odds to win
2015 Daytona 500 Preview: Gibbs cars look to have the edge
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| Matt Kenseth is 12/1 to win his third Daytona 500 |
What I learned the most over the weekend was that I didn’t need to learn that much because the cars ran almost exactly like last season. That was my biggest fear coming into the season without preseason testing -- the uncertainty. And while you can never be certain about any restrictor-plate racing because of the volatile nature, we can be certain there is nothing new that will throw us for a loop like tandem racing did a couple years ago.
We can almost say the racing is a continuation of 2014 and that was confirmed when we saw Joe Gibbs Racing finish first and third in the Sprint Unlimited and Hendrick Motorsports put two of their cars on the front row during Daytona 500 qualifying. Last season JGR won the Sprint Unlimited and both Budweiser Duel races as well as the first Talladega race while HMS won the Daytona 500 with Dale Earnhardt Jr.
Despite having a good read on who has the competitive advantage, it stills means very little in the grand scheme of things because things happen so fast at Daytona where one lap you’re leading and the next lap you’re involved in a 14-car pile up.
Because of that volatile nature, you don’t want to go crazy with wagers. Yes, we’re excited because racing is back, but you also have to be realistic and play the percentages. Next week in Atlanta following practices, the odds are in your favor because the top drivers will hold more true to their rating where you’ll start with maybe eight drivers that present the best value at the beginning of the week, and then you‘ll narrow it down to maybe four or five after final practices and then have a great shot at showing a profit for the week. For Daytona, even though we’re all excited about it being the first real race of the year, you should be betting only half of what your normal weekly NASCAR bankroll is.
There will be 43 drivers starting in Sunday’s race and 35 of them have a legitimate shot to win. Next week in Atlanta, there are only 15 drivers that a legitimate case can be made for. Translation: Daytona odds favor the sportsbooks, which is why most are willing to give double-digit odds to win on all of them. You won’t see a favorite as high as 10/1 odds on any other non-restrictor plate track like Earnhardt Jr. is this week at the Westgate SuperBook.
This week, we get some kind of NASCAR racing almost every day up until Sunday. There will be two practices on Wednesday, a practice Thursday and then two Budweiser Duel qualifying races later that night, which wagering will also be offered. Friday there are two more practices then final practice Saturday and then the Great American Race on Sunday. That’s quite a bit of action to take in for one week after being starved for so long.
My betting strategy is pretty simple here. I’m not betting it like a normal race, but the wagers will be spread across a few of the Joe Gibbs drivers, Dale Earnhardt Jr. and Brad Keselowski (12/1) in both matchups and odds to win. Because it’s Daytona, I’ll also throw in a couple of long shots like Greg Biffle at 35/1 and Paul Menard at 50/1. We’ve seen the likes of Trevor Bayne, David Ragan and Aric Almirola cash in a odds of 50/1 of higher at Daytona in recent years, so it’s not a bad idea to take a shot with one or two drivers with long odds.
A driver I have had some good luck picking against in Daytona matchups over the years has been Jimmie Johnson. I actually had him to win the 2006 Daytona 500 as my main driver, and I was burned by going against him in 2013 when he swept the season, but I've had more success on the track betting against the No. 48. He's finished 20th or worse in seven of his last 10 Daytona races -- including the summer 400 mile event. There aren't too many matchups in NASCAR plate races where you can say there is value, but Johnson has proven to be a good bet against.
Overall, I'm sticking with the Joe Gibbs drivers, Dale Earnhardt Jr. and Brad Keselowski to win. To me, it just has a feel of being Keselowski's turn. He's in his prime right now, has a championship and knows how to run well with the plates on. He has three wins at Talladega, but has yet to win at Daytona, although he did have a career-best third-place in the 2014 Daytona 500. I wish I had something more concrete to state my case for Keselowski other than 'it just feels right' but that's kind of the guessing game you play when wagering the Daytona 500, which is why you shouldn't bet too much. It worked last year when I took Junior to win with my most weighted odds to win wager, and he hadn't won a plate race since 2004.
The bottom line is that there is really no bad bet to win the race until it losses. It's a crap shoot and I'm just hoping my toss of the dice comes up snake eyes with the No. 2.
Now the real key is finding a place to watch it with sound on. On Sunday, you’re going to have to state your case brilliantly to a sports book supervisor that the Super Bowl of NASCAR deserves to be on with sound more than the Cavaliers/Knicks NBA game or Ohio State/Michigan college hoops. It helps sway their opinion if several people ask showing that a large portion of the guests in the room want the race on with sound. It also helps if you show them some bet tickets on the race at their property.
For an event like this you don’t want to stay at home to watch it, you want to be around several others hootin’ and hollerin’ for your driver, but finding a spot was difficult so I just started going to the race itself with a few buddies. If I had to make a bet on the sports book most likely to have the race on with sound it would be at the Westgate SuperBook and South Point sports book. I won’t be at Daytona this year, so I might try my luck with those two places on Sunday.
Read More Here.......Top-5 Finish Prediction
Monday, February 17, 2014
Updated LVH Super Book 2014 Daytona 500 & Sprint Cup Odds
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| Ryan Newman and Austin Dillon could offer nice value at bet windows |
DAYTONA INT'L SPEEDWAY
SUNDAY, FEBRUARY 23, 2014
JIMMIE JOHNSON 10
KYLE BUSCH 10
MATT KENSETH 10
DENNY HAMLIN 12
BRAD KESELOWSKI 12
KASEY KAHNE 15
JEFF GORDON 15
DALE EARNHARDT JR 10
TONY STEWART 12
KEVIN HARVICK 10
KURT BUSCH 18
JOEY LOGANO 18
CARL EDWARDS 20
CLINT BOWYER 20
GREG BIFFLE 30
RYAN NEWMAN 30
MARTIN TRUEX JR 30
BRIAN VICKERS 35
JAMIE McMURRAY 25
RICKY STENHOUSE JR 40
AUSTIN DILLON 25
PAUL MENARD 40
KYLE LARSON 40
MARCOS AMBROSE 75
DANICA PATRICK 40
MICHAEL WALTRIP 40
TREVOR BAYNE 75
AJ ALLMENDINGER 100
DAVID RAGAN 75
DAVID GILLILAND 100
JUSTIN ALLGAIER 200
CASEY MEARS 100
MICHAEL ANNETT 200
FIELD 30
2014 SPRINT CUP CHAMPIONSHIP
JIMMIE JOHNSON 5-2
KYLE BUSCH 7
MATT KENSETH 7
DENNY HAMLIN 8
BRAD KESELOWSKI 10
KASEY KAHNE 12
JEFF GORDON 15
DALE EARNHARDT JR 15
TONY STEWART 15
KEVIN HARVICK 15
KURT BUSCH 15
JOEY LOGANO 20
CARL EDWARDS 20
CLINT BOWYER 20
GREG BIFFLE 30
RYAN NEWMAN 30
MARTIN TRUEX JR 75
BRIAN VICKERS 100
JAMIE McMURRAY 100
RICKY STENHOUSE JR 100
AUSTIN DILLON 100
PAUL MENARD 300
KYLE LARSON 200
MARCOS AMBROSE 300
DANICA PATRICK 1000
FIELD 60
Video: Roberts Talks Daytona 500 odds
Friday, February 14, 2014
Hamlin and Earnhardt Jr. fastest in Friday's Sprint Unlimited practices
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| New SHR teammates Harvick and Busch getting acclimated in practice |
Dale Earnhardt Jr. was the fastest during the first session with a lap at 198.421 mph, which he captured while running in the draft on the 20th of his 30 laps run in the session. Kyle Busch was second fastest in the session, followed by new Stewart-Haas teammates Kurt Busch and Kevin Harvick.
A total of 18 drivers practiced in the early practice while only 15 participated in the final session, with Ryan Newman, Jimmie Johnson and Matt Kenseth not wanting any opportunity to wreck their primary car before the actual race starts.
These practices mean very little, except for giving an indication that the SHR plate programs look to be pretty good and assuring what we already knew that the Hendrick and Gibbs programs are going to be good like they were last season. Most of all, it's just awesome to see the cars lined up again, roaring and ready for action.
The only impression changed somewhat for me based on the practice is that Kurt Busch could be more of a player than I anticipated right out of the gate. He still remains the best plate race driver to never win a points-paying plate race. However, he did win the 2011 Sprint Unlimited. During the practices, three-time Unlimited winner Harvick and Busch hooked up nicely as if they've been teammates for years.
Sprint Unlimited Practice 1 Speeds - Dale Jr Fastest
Sprint Unlimited Practice 2 Speeds - Hamlin Fastest
A total of 18 drivers practiced in the early practice while only 15 participated in the final session, with Ryan Newman, Jimmie Johnson and Matt Kenseth not wanting any opportunity to wreck their primary car before the actual race starts.
These practices mean very little, except for giving an indication that the SHR plate programs look to be pretty good and assuring what we already knew that the Hendrick and Gibbs programs are going to be good like they were last season. Most of all, it's just awesome to see the cars lined up again, roaring and ready for action.
The only impression changed somewhat for me based on the practice is that Kurt Busch could be more of a player than I anticipated right out of the gate. He still remains the best plate race driver to never win a points-paying plate race. However, he did win the 2011 Sprint Unlimited. During the practices, three-time Unlimited winner Harvick and Busch hooked up nicely as if they've been teammates for years.
Sprint Unlimited Practice 1 Speeds - Dale Jr Fastest
Sprint Unlimited Practice 2 Speeds - Hamlin Fastest
Monday, November 25, 2013
LVH Super Book Opening Odds to win 2014 NASCAR Sprint Cup
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| How about Denny Hamlin bouncing back in 2013? He's 8/1 at LVH |
JIMMIE JOHNSON 2
KYLE BUSCH 6
MATT KENSETH 7
DENNY HAMLIN 8
BRAD KESELOWSKI 12
KASEY KAHNE 12
JEFF GORDON 15
DALE EARNHARDT JR 15
TONY STEWART 15
KEVIN HARVICK 18
KURT BUSCH 18
JOEY LOGANO 18
CARL EDWARDS 20
CLINT BOWYER 25
GREG BIFFLE 30
RYAN NEWMAN 40
MARTIN TRUEX JR 60
BRIAN VICKERS 60
JAMIE McMURRAY 100
RICKY STENHOUSE JR 100
AUSTIN DILLON 100
PAUL MENARD 200
KYLE LARSON 200
MARCOS AMBROSE 500
DANICA PATRICK 1000
FIELD 60
Wednesday, May 29, 2013
LVH Super Book makes Johnson 5-to-1 co-favorite to win eighth time at Dover
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| Johnson has won 4 of the last 8 Dover races, including 2009 sweep |
No current driver has tamed the concrete monster better than Johnson, and if he wins on Sunday, we can say that no driver in NASCAR history has tamed Dover better than Johnson. His win in this race last season gave him seven for his career, tying NASCAR Hall of Famers Richard Petty and Bobby Allison.
He began his remarkable Dover run by sweeping the season as a rookie in 2002 and has been going strong ever since with an 8.6 average finish over his career at this track. Johnson has won four of the last eight races at Dover.
Based on Johnson's record at Dover and his 32-point lead atop the Sprint Cup standings, one could argue that he should be a bigger favorite than Busch, but Busch comes with a strong Dover resume as well. He's a two-time winner, his latest victory here coming in 2010.
Busch's experience and success at Bristol – where he has a dozen top-10 finishes, including five wins, since 2005 – bodes well for him at Dover. Although Bristol is a half-mile shorter than Dover, the high banking makes the set-up requirements similar. Several crew chiefs bring the chassis they used at Bristol to Dover.
Kasey Kahne won the March 17 race at Bristol, followed by Kyle Busch, Brad Keselowski and Kurt Busch. The Busch brothers and Keselowski have been three of the more dominant drivers at Bristol over the last decade. Kurt Busch won at Dover in the fall of 2011 in a Penske ride, and Keselowski matched it last fall with a pivotal win in the Chase. Kahne hasn't won at Dover in 18 career starts, but did deliver his best performance ever in 2011 with fourth-place finish.
Kahne is 8-to-1 to win this week, Keselowski is 12-to-1 and Kurt Busch is 20-to-1 – his lowest odds of the season and very deserving.
Read More Here....Dover Odds from the LVH Super Book
Monday, November 26, 2012
LVH Super Book Odds to Win 2013 NASCAR Sprint Cup Championship
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| Chad Knaus and Jimmie Johnson are 5/1 to win 2013 Title at LVH (Getty) |
2013 SPRINT CUP CHAMPIONSHIP
JIMMIE JOHNSON 5
BRAD KESELOWSKI 8
DENNY HAMLIN 8
KYLE BUSCH 8
KASEY KAHNE 8
MATT KENSETH 10
JEFF GORDON 10
TONY STEWART 10
CLINT BOWYER 12
GREG BIFFLE 12
CARL EDWARDS 12
MARTIN TRUEX JR 15
DALE EARNHARDT JR 15
KEVIN HARVICK 20
JOEY LOGANO 40
RYAN NEWMAN 60
KURT BUSCH 100
MARCOS AMBROSE 200
PAUL MENARD 200
JEFF BURTON 300
JAMIE McMURRAY 300
JUAN MONTOYA 300
RICKY STENHOUSE JR 500
ARIC ALMIROLA 500
DANICA PATRICK 1000
FIELD 100
WYNN LAS VEGAS 2013 NASCAR SPRINT CUP CHAMPIONSHIP ODDS
Saturday, November 10, 2012
Final 2012 Phoenix Advocare 500 Driver Ratings Following All Practice Sessions
Micah Roberts’ Top 10 Driver Ratings
Advocare 500
Phoenix International Raceway
Sunday, November 11, 2012 - 12:16 p.m. (PDT)
Rating Driver Odds Practice 1 Qualified Practice 2 Practice 3
1. Kyle Busch 8/1 1st 1st 1st 1st
2005 winner; thoroughly dominated practices -- had best 10 consecutive lap averages.
2. Brad Keselowski 5/1 21st 14th 4th 9th
Career best finish of fifth-place in the spring; using brand new chassis this week.
3. Kasey Kahne 8/1 4th 4th 9th 2nd
2011 winner in first race under new configuration; outstanding practice using new car.
4. Denny Hamlin 6/1 2nd 3rd 2nd 8th
Won spring race in April, also won at similar track at New Hampshire; 10.9 average finish.
5. Clint Bowyer 12/1 3rd 16th 8th 7th
He’s becoming the King of the flat tracks; using car that won on similar track at Richmond.
6. Jeff Gordon 12/1 10th 11th 10th 5th
Two-time winner, the last in spring of 2011, with a 10.8 average finish in 27 career starts.
7. Jimmie Johnson 4/1 27th 24th 24th 11th
Four-time winner, including three times during Chase of Championship season; sluggish practice.
8. Joey Logano 50/1 7th 15th 5th 3rd
Best finish of third in 2010; strong practice using similar set-up as teammates Busch and Hamlin.
9. Martin Truex Jr. 20/1 5th 2nd 3rd 6th
Best finish of fifth in 2009 with career average of 15.2; looked good in average practice speeds.
10. Paul Menard 100/1 8th 7th 6th 19th
Only one top-10 finish over career (2011), but had the look of a contender in practice.
Note: This will be third race under the new configuration at Phoenix. Despite the changes, the track remains relatively flat and keeps recent results at New Hampshire and Richmond still relevant for set-up and handicapping purposes.
Odds courtesy of the LVH Super Book.
Micah Roberts, a former sports book director, has been setting NASCAR lines in Las Vegas since 1995. For more Roberts insights on the race, go to The Linemakers on SportingNews.com or follow on Twitter: MicahRoberts7.
Betting Notes
Kyle Busch looks like he’s got the fastest car at Phoenix this weekend. He was fastest in all three practice sessions and starts from the pole. He did all the little things you like to see during practices like have a good overall average speed and run up with the leaders in 10-consecutive lap averages. In both of Saturday’s practice sessions, he had the top 10-consecutive lap averages.
As good as Busch looks, we know that the best car doesn’t always win, especially at Phoenix. In the March race we saw Kasey Kahne be almost as good as Busch was this weekend -- at least during happy hour, but it didn’t translate to a win. Kahne wrecked himself early in the race and wasn’t able to win two in a row under the new configuration.
If Busch can’t win the race, look for Kahne to come up with the win. Kahne was just a notch below Busch in all the practice categories we like and we know his car will be set-up perfectly for the race. Kahne just needs to watch out for that tricky wall that bit him in March.
Brad Keselowski was impressive in Saturday practices and looks to have a much better car than Jimmie Johnson. Johnson certainly has a better history at Phoenix, but not that much under the new reconfiguration. Keselowski was fifth in the spring and Johnson fourth, and when you add Johnson and his crew trying to find anything that works on a sluggish car, Keselowski looks to have the edge Sunday.
One of the great moments of the final practice sessions was when Keselowski was informed by his spotter that Johnson’s guy on the roof said Johnson wanted to run behind Keselowski because the No. 2 was running much faster. Johnson slowed, Keselowski passed and just as Johnson was about to and follow Keseloski’s successful line around the track, Keselowski pulled into the pits. He basically said without words, “I’m not helping you do nothing! You‘re struggling and I like it. Two races two go for the title and I need every edge I can get. Work it out yourself.”
Johnson eventually found a little more speed and finished 11th in the session after being 24th in the Saturday’s earlier practice.
Speed also found it’s way into Busch’s Joe Gibbs teammates’ cars of Denny Hamlin and Joey Logano. Logano offers perhaps the best value on the board at 50-to-1.
We also have to consider Clint Bowyer because he’s using the same car he won with at Richmond in September. Jeff Gordon looked good in practice as well and should have a strong showing due to finishing within the top-3 at both Richmond and New Hampshire in September.
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