Micah Roberts' Top-10 Finish Prediction: 2023 Crayon 301 at New Hampshire

Kyle Larson won at Richmond, a good sign for NHMS.

Read my entire New Hampshire article on Sportsline.com

1 #19 Martin Truex Jr (13/2) - He won at New Hampshire in a 2005 Xfinity Series race but that’s been it for him in all NASCAR Series over his career. It’s considered a home track for him as Dover is, which he won on in May, but NHMS has been hard to win at despite an 11th-place average finish in 29 Cup starts. He’s had eight top-fives and 916 laps led, but no wins. This might be his final season and this is a track he definitely wants to cross off the to-do list. He’s been seventh or better in seven of his last eight starts and last season’s fourth-place finish after starting on the pole and leading a race-high 172 laps looked like it. He won the first two stages. He’s owed a win on this layout. He deserves a Cup win and this team has all the capabilities to get that win.

2 #20 Christopher Bell (5/1) - There may be no one better at New Hampshire other than Bell because all he does is win there beginning with a 2017 Truck Series win. He then won three straight races at NHMS in the Xfinity Series, the last being in 2021. And then last season he won his first Cup race there. That’s five wins in three NASCAR major touring series and he won the last Cup race there and he still drives the JGR car. He was runner-up in the 2021 Cup race as well. He deserves to be the favorite.

3 #11 Denny Hamlin (13/2) - He’s the active leader witha 9.5 average finish in 29 Cup starts at NHMS and has 11 top-fives to go along . He was sixth last season. You might bet him to win this race because you can see him getting better with this car on the smaller tracks and turning well in the road courses with poles at Sonoma and Chicago. He was third at Nashville and runner-up at St. Louis. His next win will be No. 50 for his career.

4 #8 Kyle Busch (10/1) - He’s a solid candidate to win based on leading a race-high 121 laps and winning at St. Louis last month. Three wins on the season and yet I don’t view him as a title contender for some reason. Perhaps it’s the inconsistent nature of RCR over the last decade that has my mind going the opposite direction of what’s staring at me right in face. Busch is elevating RCR to a status not seen in over a decade. And then he’s got the NHMS history such as three wins, 11 top-fives, and 1,134 laps led which is the most among active drivers.

5 #24 William Byron (12/1) - He’s notched a series-high fourth win through 19 races and he’s streaky meaning he’s live for Sunday to win again. His last win was sandwiched between two top-3 runs. His first two wins of the season came back-to-back at Las Vegas and Phoenix. He has a 13th-place average finish between five NHMS Cup starts to go along witha 2016 Truck Series win.

6 #9 Chase Elliott (12/1) - He has a 14th-place average finish in nine Cup starts at NHMS with a best of runner-up last season. He’s led laps in four of his last five starts. He’s still chasing a win after missing six races of points on the season. He needs a win badly. The good news is that when Elliott was out, his replacement at Richmond was Josh Berry who finished second. The car is ready for this. Elliott is desperate.

7 #22 Joey Logano (15/1) - This where “sliced bread” notched his first career win in 2009 on his home track. It was rain-shortened, but who cares. He won again in 2014 and has top-10 in five of his last six starts. He was runner-up at Martinsville and third at St. Louis. Good drive matchup play.

8 #1 Ross Chastain (15/1) - He’s had four Cup starts at NHMS with moderate success finishing eighth the past two seasons. That’s right about where I have him this week – competing well but not winning. But he’s still a good play in driver matchups.

9 #4 Kevin Harvick (10/1) - He leads all active drivers with four NHMS wins, 14 top-fives, and 26 top-10s. This will be his last run at NHMS which also includes a 2007 Xfinity Series win. The reason you bet him in match-ups or odds to win is that he’s been sixth or better in 10 of his last 12 NHMS races which includes three wins. This is a great track for him. He was fifth at both Phoenix and Richmond this season.

10 #6 Brad Keselowski (20/1) - He’s sitting pretty good in 14th position in points but if five more new winners arrive before him he’ll be sitting out of the playoffs again. He can get rid of that notion by simply winning and NHMS is a great place for him. Always has been. He’s second among active drivers with a 10th-place average finish in 22 Cup starts with two wins and nine top-fives. He also has two Xfinity Series wins at NHMS. He was seventh last season there.

William Byron is 12/1 to win Crayon 301 at New Hampshire

 

24 WILLIAM BYRON   Age: 25 (Nov. 29, 1997)   Hometown: Charlotte, North Carolina   Resides: Charlotte, North Carolina   Crew Chief: Rudy Fugle   Standings: 1st

No. 24 RaptorTough.com Chevrolet Camaro ZL1   RAIN IS A GOOD THING: After qualifying 18th at Atlanta Motor Speedway, William Byron went to work, making his way through the field during Sunday evening’s NASCAR Cup Series race. By the end of stage one, Byron had worked his way up to the fifth position. However, during the stage break pit sequence, the No. 24 team was assessed a pit road penalty for a safety violation that forced Byron to start at the rear of the field. Trying to overcome the lost track position, he was unfortunately involved in an on-track incident on lap 80 that forced him to come down pit road for repairs, ultimately putting him one lap down. However, Byron was able to regain his lap on the next caution and began working his way through traffic. With weather looming, crew chief Rudy Fugle used an alternate pit strategy that allowed his driver to restart the final stage in third. Byron ultimately took the lead on lap 167 and maintained that position until the race was shortened due to weather after 185 laps completed. The 25-year-old driver earned his fourth win of the season.  WINNER, WINNER: With four race wins in 2023, Byron leads the Cup Series field with the most victories. In fact, he now has eight wins total in his career at NASCAR's top level. The first four wins came across 182 Cup Series starts, while his last four came across 17 starts. The Charlotte, North Carolina, native also has scored six wins in the Next Gen era, the most of any driver. The victory at Atlanta also marked the 101st victory for the No. 24, which is now tied with the No. 3 for fourth on the all-time wins list by car number. The iconic number is one triumph away from moving into a tie for third with the No. 2 at 102 wins. NEW NO. 1: With seven races left in the regular season, Byron is now leading the driver points standings. With a 21-marker lead over second, he is looking for his first regular-season championship and the extra 15 playoff points that come with it. To this point of the campaign, Byron leads the series in average running position (8.80), laps led (741), wins (four), stage wins (seven) and laps run in the top five (2,509). He is tied with teammate Kyle Larson for the most top-five finishes (eight) and has the second-most top-10s (11) and laps run in the top 10 (3,272). MR. 200: This Sunday’s race at New Hampshire Motor Speedway will mark Byron’s 200th Cup Series start. In his previous 199 races in NASCAR's top division, the driver of the No. 24 has eight wins, 10 pole awards, 34 top-five finishes, 73 top-10s and 2,346 laps led.  I WALK THE LINE: Byron will make his 41st start on tracks 1- to 1.37-miles in length (Darlington Raceway, Dover Motor Speedway, Nashville Superspeedway, New Hampshire, Phoenix Raceway and WWT Raceway). In his previous 40 starts at tracks in that length range, he collected one pole award, two wins, eight top-five finishes, 17 top-10s with 431 laps led. This season, Byron has won at Phoenix and Darlington.  LOVIN’ LOUDON: Early in his career, Byron got off to an unbeatable start at "The Magic Mile." Making his debut at the 1.058-mile oval in the 2015 ARCA Menards Series East race, he qualified on the pole and led 68 of 70 laps to take home the checkered flag. Byron followed it up the next year by dominating the NASCAR CRAFTSMAN Truck Series race where he started from the pole and led 161 of 175 laps en route to his sixth of seven victories in 2016. Moving up to the NASCAR Xfinity Series in 2017, Byron earned a top-five finish after starting seventh and finishing third. He has five Cup Series starts at NHMS, with four top-15 finishes and a best finish of 11th occurring twice (once in 2020 and then again in 2022). RUDY PUTS THE MAGIC IN ‘MAGIC MILE’: Byron isn’t the only one who enjoys racing at New Hampshire. His crew chief Rudy Fugle does as well. Currently, Fugle has two Cup Series starts under his belt with a best showing of 11th coming in last year’s race with the No. 24 team. The Livonia, New York, native has four other national series starts at the 1.058-mile oval. In three Truck Series starts, he has earned one pole award and two wins, including a victory with Byron from the pole position in 2016. In fact, Fugle’s drivers have an average starting position of 2.3 and an average finishing position of 3.0 at New Hampshire in the Truck Series. PIT ROAD PROWESS: After 19 races in the 2023 season, the No. 24 pit crew remains in the top spot with the fastest average four-tire pit stop time of 10.973 seconds. The No. 24 pit crew consists of Spencer Bishop (jackman), Jeff Cordero (front-tire changer), Orane Ossowski (rear-tire changer), Ryan Patton (tire carrier) and Landon Walker (fueler). The team also has three of the fastest four-tire stops of the season, which rank sixth (9.383 seconds), eighth (9.443 seconds) and ninth (9.504 seconds) overall.   HEADING HOME: Two crew members of the No. 24 team call New Hampshire their home track. A part of the No. 24 team since 2019, car chief Tyler Jones hails from South Royalton, Vermont, less than 100 miles northwest of “The Magic Mile.” Cordero, who has been the front-tire changer since last season, calls Salem, Connecticut, home, which is less than 200 miles south of the venue.  RAPTOR® TOUGH: For this weekend’s race at New Hampshire, Byron’s No. 24 Chevrolet Camaro ZL1 will have RaptorTough.com back on board. RAPTOR® is a durable protective coating that is designed to tolerate the toughest climatic conditions and can be applied to a wide range of items, including truck beds, lawnmowers, outdoor furniture and more. With 16 pre-mixed colors available, it’s easy to personalize anything you want to protect. RAPTOR® is available at local paint distributors, auto parts stores, and online retailers. For a better look at Byron’s No. 24 RaptorTough.com Chevy, click here. William Byron, driver of the No. 24 Chevrolet Camaro ZL1, on holding the points lead: "We've still got seven races until the playoffs, and we've just got to keep inching up on it. We can't have any major bad weeks. Atlanta (Motor Speedway) looked like it was going to be a bad week and we overcame it. It's a good lesson to learn, but I think we're coming up on two tough tracks that we've got to really hone in on with Pocono (Raceway) and Loudon (New Hampshire Motor Speedway)." Rudy Fugle, crew chief of the No. 24 Chevrolet Camaro ZL1, on what makes New Hampshire a difficult track: "New Hampshire (Motor Speedway) is one of the toughest on the schedule. The way to make these Next Gen cars go fast is to have them low to the ground but at the same time, all of your grip goes away if you’re too low. We live in a 30-thousandth window. We want all the grip but not to lose all the grip and that’s New Hampshire in a nutshell."

Desperate Alex Bowman is 35/1 to win at New Hampshire

 

48 Alex Bowman   Age: 30 (April 25, 1993)   Hometown: Tucson, Arizona   Resides: Concord, North Carolina   Crew Chief: Blake Harris   Standings: 22nd

No. 48 Ally Chevrolet Camaro ZL1   LOUDON LOWDOWN: Alex Bowman has trended upward in his NASCAR Cup Series results at New Hampshire Motor Speedway during the past few years. The driver of the No. 48 Ally Chevrolet Camaro ZL1 had his career-best finish at the 1.058-mile venue in July 2021, taking the checkered flag in ninth. Bowman has also qualified in the top 10 in two of the last three races in New Hampshire, including his top start of fifth in the 2021 event.  ONE-MILE SUCCESS: The driver of the No. 48 Ally Chevrolet has had success at another track in the 1-mile range on the Cup Series schedule, Dover Motor Speedway. In Bowman's 12 starts at Delaware’s “Monster Mile,” he has one win (May 2021), five top-five finishes, five top-10s and led 142 laps. In addition, he earned a top-10 finish at another 1-mile track, Phoenix Raceway, in March of this year. PLAYOFF FOCUS: With seven races left in the regular season, Bowman enters New Hampshire 44 points below the provisional playoff cutline. He currently needs to gain an average of seven markers on the cutline. The 30-year-old driver has wins at the next two tracks (Pocono Raceway and Richmond Raceway), with both victories coming during his four-win season of 2021. LET THEM EAT: The No. 48 pit crew flexed their muscles on pit road last Sunday at Atlanta Motor Speedway, clocking in the fastest four-tire pit stop of all crews at 10.177 seconds.  The five-man crew consists of Andrew Bridgeforth (rear-tire changer), Jacob Conley (fueler), Allen Holman (jackman), Scott Riddle (tire carrier) and Donnie Tasser (front-tire changer).     SAVE THEM ALL: Bowman and primary partner Ally are teaming up this year to bring back the Best Friends Animal Society donation effort. This week, the duo will make charitable contributions to Canine Commitment of New England, which serves the local community in New Boston, New Hampshire. Bowman and Ally will donate $4,800 to Best Friends and Canine Commitment of New England. Ally will increase its donation to $10,000 if the No. 48 team wins on Sunday.      DAY ‘N’ NITE: The No. 48 Ally Chevrolet Camaro ZL1 will adorn two versions of its primary scheme during the 2023 Cup Series season. This weekend, the No. 48 Ally Chevy "day" scheme will be on track and it features a white base with bright plum, grapefruit, and seafoam stripes down the side. This version of the primary scheme will appear at races that take place during the day. When the lights come on over the racetrack, the black-based No. 48 Ally Chevy "night" scheme will be sported with a similar design to its daytime counterpart. Check out all the angles of the schemes here.  Alex Bowman, driver of the No. 48 Chevrolet Camaro ZL1, on his position in the point standings: "Obviously, this is not where we want to be. With the way the season started and then having to deal with my injury and a points penalty, we aren’t in a bad spot, but we have our work cut out for us. This weekend is another opportunity to go lock ourselves into the playoffs and that is what we are focused on." Blake Harris, crew chief of the No. 48 Chevrolet Camaro ZL1, on his thoughts heading to New Hampshire: "Unfortunately, Alex’s only time at Loudon last year ended early. Since then, we have had the No. 9 team run really well there towards the end of that race and they also did a tire test this year. We have a lot of data and a lot of good short-track data – Richmond (Raceway) was a strong race for us and I think there will be some things applicable from there. We will try to take all of that information, apply it to our No. 48 Ally Chevrolet Camaro ZL1 this weekend and go compete for a win."

Kyle Larson is 8/1 to win his first Cup race at New Hampshire

 

5 KYLE LARSON   Age: 30 (July 31, 1992)   Hometown: Elk Grove, California   Resides: Mooresville, North Carolina   Crew Chief: Cliff Daniels   Standings: 8th

No. 5 Valvoline Chevrolet Camaro ZL1   NECK-N-NECK IN NEW HAMPSHIRE: With three second-place finishes at New Hampshire Motor Speedway, Kyle Larson has the most runner-up results at the track of any NASCAR Cup Series driver all-time without a win there. He is tied for the fourth-most stage points earned (19) at the 1.058-mile track in the last two premier series races. In 12 Cup Series starts on "The Magic Mile," he has completed 98.9% of his laps attempted, led 16 laps and scored four top-five finishes. The 30-year-old driver’s average finish of 12.5 at the Loudon, New Hampshire, track is sixth-best among drivers in Sunday’s field.  LEADING LAPS: Larson is second in laps led this season (592), adding four circuits to that tally at Atlanta Motor Speedway. He trails only teammate William Byron (741) in this statistical category. The driver of the No. 5 has led 103 more laps than the third-place competitor. He ranks fourth in both laps run in the top five (1,821) and laps run in the top 10 (2,973). TALLYING TOP FIVES: Larson is tied with Byron for the most top-five finishes in points-paying Cup Series races in 2023 (eight). Counting his win in the non-points All-Star Race at North Wilkesboro Speedway, the Elk Grove, California, native, has finished in the top five at nine different tracks: second at Las Vegas Motor Speedway, fourth at Phoenix Raceway, first at Richmond Raceway, first at Martinsville Speedway, second at Kansas Speedway, fourth at WWT Raceway, fifth at Nashville Superspeedway and fourth at the Chicago Street Course. In addition, he is in a three-way tie for the fifth-most top-10 finishes (nine). MILE-RANGE MUSCLE: Sunday’s race at New Hampshire marks Larson’s 62nd start on tracks 1- to 1.37-miles in length (Darlington Raceway, Dover Motor Speedway, Nashville, New Hampshire, Phoenix and WWTR). In his previous 61 starts at tracks in that length range, he has collected three pole awards, three wins, 27 top-five finishes, 39 top-10s and 2,281 laps led. This season, he won the pole and led 201 laps at Phoenix and also contended late for the win at Darlington and WWTR. PIT CREW POWER: Through 19 races this season, the No. 5 pit crew ranks second overall in average four-tire pit stop time at 11.079 seconds. The team’s five-man pit crew consists of Blaine Anderson (front-tire changer), R.J. Barnette (tire carrier), Brandon Harder (fueler), Brandon Johnson (jackman) and Calvin Teague (rear-tire changer). EXTRACURRICULAR: In accompany to Larson’s full-time Cup Series schedule, the HendrickCars.com driver is running in several sprint car events. On Tuesday at Attica Raceway Park in Attica, Ohio, he won the feature race to become the first driver to win back-to-back at the Brad Doty Classic. Larson will also race in two events at Eldora Speedway in New Weston, Ohio. The first will see him race for the chance to win over $1,000,000 in Thursday's Eldora Million. He will then compete in the prestigious Kings Royal (on Friday and Saturday), where a 40th King will be crowned in the $175K-to-win race. Catch the action on DIRTVision.com.  VALVOLINE ON BOARD: This weekend at New Hampshire, Valvoline will make their second appearance of 2023 as the primary sponsor of Larson’s No. 5 Chevrolet Camaro ZL1. Valvoline Inc. (NYSE: VVV) is a leading worldwide marketer and supplier of premium branded lubricants and automotive services, with sales in more than 140 countries. Established in 1866, the company’s heritage spans more than 150 years, during which time it has developed powerful brand recognition across multiple product and service channels. Valvoline ranks as the No. 3 passenger car motor oil brand in the DIY market by volume. Off the track, Valvoline is the preferred lubricant of Hendrick Automotive Group, which operates 95 car dealerships across the United States. Check out Larson’s No. 5 Valvoline Chevy here. Kyle Larson, driver of the No. 5 Chevrolet Camaro ZL1, on racing at New Hampshire Motor Speedway: "I like New Hampshire (Motor Speedway) a lot. It’s different than the other tracks we go to. It’s really flat. Kind of like a bigger short track in a way. It’s really rough into turn three and it’s difficult. You have to be really patient with yourself and your car. It’s easy to get frustrated there if you’re not turning into the middle well, you’re loose in or your car is bouncing too much. It’s always hard to get the right feel there and I enjoy that challenge." Cliff Daniels, crew chief of the No. 5 Chevrolet Camaro ZL1, on building on the team's 2023 short-track success: "New Hampshire (Motor Speedway) is a tough track. We, as Hendrick Motorsports, have a little bit of a tough recent history there. I feel like our cars kind of get trapped in the sixth-to-10th (position) range. Obviously, our expectations are a lot higher than that. We are getting to work in all the areas that we can to try and better ourselves and level up our game. Our short-track package has been strong this year, obviously, with our wins coming on short tracks this year. That certainly doesn’t mean we can rest. We need to be sharp about what we need to do to execute for a good weekend. It starts with running good in practice and hopefully getting a good spot in qualifying, which leads to the pit pick that can really set you up for success. The race always seems to have some sort of asterisk in it for a mix up in strategy, an untimely caution, or whatever it may be. So, we just need to be on our toes and make good decisions throughout the day."