Micah Roberts' Top-10 Finish Prediction: 2023 Crayon 301 at New Hampshire

Kyle Larson won at Richmond, a good sign for NHMS.

Read my entire New Hampshire article on Sportsline.com

1 #19 Martin Truex Jr (13/2) - He won at New Hampshire in a 2005 Xfinity Series race but that’s been it for him in all NASCAR Series over his career. It’s considered a home track for him as Dover is, which he won on in May, but NHMS has been hard to win at despite an 11th-place average finish in 29 Cup starts. He’s had eight top-fives and 916 laps led, but no wins. This might be his final season and this is a track he definitely wants to cross off the to-do list. He’s been seventh or better in seven of his last eight starts and last season’s fourth-place finish after starting on the pole and leading a race-high 172 laps looked like it. He won the first two stages. He’s owed a win on this layout. He deserves a Cup win and this team has all the capabilities to get that win.

2 #20 Christopher Bell (5/1) - There may be no one better at New Hampshire other than Bell because all he does is win there beginning with a 2017 Truck Series win. He then won three straight races at NHMS in the Xfinity Series, the last being in 2021. And then last season he won his first Cup race there. That’s five wins in three NASCAR major touring series and he won the last Cup race there and he still drives the JGR car. He was runner-up in the 2021 Cup race as well. He deserves to be the favorite.

3 #11 Denny Hamlin (13/2) - He’s the active leader witha 9.5 average finish in 29 Cup starts at NHMS and has 11 top-fives to go along . He was sixth last season. You might bet him to win this race because you can see him getting better with this car on the smaller tracks and turning well in the road courses with poles at Sonoma and Chicago. He was third at Nashville and runner-up at St. Louis. His next win will be No. 50 for his career.

4 #8 Kyle Busch (10/1) - He’s a solid candidate to win based on leading a race-high 121 laps and winning at St. Louis last month. Three wins on the season and yet I don’t view him as a title contender for some reason. Perhaps it’s the inconsistent nature of RCR over the last decade that has my mind going the opposite direction of what’s staring at me right in face. Busch is elevating RCR to a status not seen in over a decade. And then he’s got the NHMS history such as three wins, 11 top-fives, and 1,134 laps led which is the most among active drivers.

5 #24 William Byron (12/1) - He’s notched a series-high fourth win through 19 races and he’s streaky meaning he’s live for Sunday to win again. His last win was sandwiched between two top-3 runs. His first two wins of the season came back-to-back at Las Vegas and Phoenix. He has a 13th-place average finish between five NHMS Cup starts to go along witha 2016 Truck Series win.

6 #9 Chase Elliott (12/1) - He has a 14th-place average finish in nine Cup starts at NHMS with a best of runner-up last season. He’s led laps in four of his last five starts. He’s still chasing a win after missing six races of points on the season. He needs a win badly. The good news is that when Elliott was out, his replacement at Richmond was Josh Berry who finished second. The car is ready for this. Elliott is desperate.

7 #22 Joey Logano (15/1) - This where “sliced bread” notched his first career win in 2009 on his home track. It was rain-shortened, but who cares. He won again in 2014 and has top-10 in five of his last six starts. He was runner-up at Martinsville and third at St. Louis. Good drive matchup play.

8 #1 Ross Chastain (15/1) - He’s had four Cup starts at NHMS with moderate success finishing eighth the past two seasons. That’s right about where I have him this week – competing well but not winning. But he’s still a good play in driver matchups.

9 #4 Kevin Harvick (10/1) - He leads all active drivers with four NHMS wins, 14 top-fives, and 26 top-10s. This will be his last run at NHMS which also includes a 2007 Xfinity Series win. The reason you bet him in match-ups or odds to win is that he’s been sixth or better in 10 of his last 12 NHMS races which includes three wins. This is a great track for him. He was fifth at both Phoenix and Richmond this season.

10 #6 Brad Keselowski (20/1) - He’s sitting pretty good in 14th position in points but if five more new winners arrive before him he’ll be sitting out of the playoffs again. He can get rid of that notion by simply winning and NHMS is a great place for him. Always has been. He’s second among active drivers with a 10th-place average finish in 22 Cup starts with two wins and nine top-fives. He also has two Xfinity Series wins at NHMS. He was seventh last season there.

Chase Elliott is 12/1 to win at New Hampshire

 

9 CHASE ELLIOTT   Age: 27 (Nov. 28, 1995)   Hometown: Dawsonville, Georgia   Resides: Dawsonville, Georgia   Crew Chief: Alan Gustafson   Standings: 23rd

No. 9 NAPA Auto Parts Chevrolet Camaro ZL1   RECAPPING THE ATL: At his home track of Atlanta Motor Speedway, Chase Elliott started 23rd in Sunday night’s NASCAR Cup Series race. He worked his way inside the top 20 in the first stage, finishing 18th. The Dawsonville, Georgia, native followed that up with a 12th-place result in stage two after battling inside the top 10. Elliott was running in the 13th position in the final stage when weather enveloped the track while the race was under caution. Officials were ultimately forced to call the race with just 185 of the scheduled 260 laps completed, ending Elliott’s chances of defending his race-winning performance at the track last season.  READY FOR SOME MAGIC: This weekend, the Cup Series heads to New Hampshire Motor Speedway. In nine starts at the track in NASCAR’s premier series, Elliott has two top-five finishes and three top-10s. In his most recent performance at “The Magic Mile,” the 27-year-old driver started the 301-lap race second and finished the first two stages in fourth and third, respectively. In the final stage, Elliott paced the field for 13 laps, before ultimately taking the checkered flag in the runner-up spot. That result was part of the No. 9 team's summer streak last year that saw Elliott record five consecutive finishes of second or better. The 2020 Cup Series champion has led 99 laps at the Loudon, New Hampshire, track and has started inside the top 10 all but three times, including rolling off the grid third or better in each of the last three events. Over the last two races there, he has the second-most stage points (28).  SIMILAR TRACK PERFORMANCE: In 53 Cup starts on tracks measuring 1- to 1.37-miles in length (Darlington Raceway, Dover Motor Speedway, Nashville Superspeedway, New Hampshire, Phoenix Raceway and WWT Raceway), Elliott has four wins. His first came at Dover in 2018 and was followed by his championship-winning performance at Phoenix in 2020. Last season, he won at both Dover and Nashville. Accompanying his wins are 22 top-five finishes, 28 top-10s and 1,246 laps led across those starts on this track type.  GREAT GUSTAFSON: Veteran crew chief Alan Gustafson has called 30 Cup Series races atop the pit box at New Hampshire. The Ormond Beach, Florida, native has collected two wins with two different drivers in his career on the 1.058-mile track, the first with Kyle Busch in 2006 and the second with Mark Martin in 2009. Along with Gustafson’s two wins, he has eight top-five finishes, 14 top-10s and 563 laps led. Most recently, he led the team to a second-place finish with Elliott in 2022 at “The Magic Mile.”  TO THE POINT: Elliott gained one spot in the Cup Series point standings following Atlanta and now sits 23rd, 60 markers outside of the provisional cutline for a playoff spot. With seven races left in the regular season, the Hendrick Motorsports driver needs to gain an average of nine points per race against the bubble to advance to the playoffs on points. While pointing his way in isn't impossible, the most straightforward way for Elliott to lock himself into the playoffs is with a victory. He has earned three of his 18 career Cup Series wins across two of the seven tracks left in the regular season (Pocono and Watkins Glen International). At four of the other tracks, he has nearly taken home the hardware, finishing runner-up at New Hampshire, Richmond Raceway, Michigan International Speedway (three times) and Daytona International Speedway (twice).  DOUBLE DUTY IN THE POCONOS: On Wednesday, it was announced that Elliott will run the NASCAR Xfinity Series race at Pocono Raceway on Saturday, July 22, before climbing behind the wheel of the No. 9 NAPA Auto Parts Chevrolet for Sunday’s Cup Series event. The 2014 Xfinity champion will drive the No. 17 HendrickCars.com Chevrolet Camaro ZL1, which is his first start for Hendrick Motorsports’ Xfinity Series program. Across 82 races in the series, Elliott has five wins, 34 top-five finishes, 66 top-10s and 689 laps led. He won the title in his rookie season driving for JR Motorsports.  Chase Elliott, driver of the No. 9 Chevrolet Camaro ZL1, on looking ahead to New Hampshire: "A few weeks ago, we were one of the cars that got to do the tire test, so that was nice. We had a good run there last year. Kind of gave one away, I didn't do a very good job there on the last run and that was frustrating. Loudon hasn’t been the greatest track for me in general, so the fact that we even had a shot to win was nice. I’m looking forward to going back. I thought we had a solid test. We weren't the best, but I thought we made some gains and that's always a good thing." Alan Gustafson, crew chief of the No. 9 Chevrolet Camaro ZL1, on how the team is approaching the rest of the regular season: "It’s really pretty simple to me. We do the best we can every week. I think people expect some grand plan, but we just try to do the best we can. We put our effort and heart and soul into each and every week. We bring the best car we can to the track and try to extract every point we can out of every single weekend. We’ve just got to give it our best effort, minimize mistakes and be prepared. That's all we can do and the rest will take care of itself. If we can't perform well enough to make it in or win, then we're probably not going to do very well in the playoffs anyway. So, my focus is to do the best we can and meet our potential. If we do that, then we'll make it and I know we'll be successful."

Desperate Alex Bowman is 35/1 to win at New Hampshire

 

48 Alex Bowman   Age: 30 (April 25, 1993)   Hometown: Tucson, Arizona   Resides: Concord, North Carolina   Crew Chief: Blake Harris   Standings: 22nd

No. 48 Ally Chevrolet Camaro ZL1   LOUDON LOWDOWN: Alex Bowman has trended upward in his NASCAR Cup Series results at New Hampshire Motor Speedway during the past few years. The driver of the No. 48 Ally Chevrolet Camaro ZL1 had his career-best finish at the 1.058-mile venue in July 2021, taking the checkered flag in ninth. Bowman has also qualified in the top 10 in two of the last three races in New Hampshire, including his top start of fifth in the 2021 event.  ONE-MILE SUCCESS: The driver of the No. 48 Ally Chevrolet has had success at another track in the 1-mile range on the Cup Series schedule, Dover Motor Speedway. In Bowman's 12 starts at Delaware’s “Monster Mile,” he has one win (May 2021), five top-five finishes, five top-10s and led 142 laps. In addition, he earned a top-10 finish at another 1-mile track, Phoenix Raceway, in March of this year. PLAYOFF FOCUS: With seven races left in the regular season, Bowman enters New Hampshire 44 points below the provisional playoff cutline. He currently needs to gain an average of seven markers on the cutline. The 30-year-old driver has wins at the next two tracks (Pocono Raceway and Richmond Raceway), with both victories coming during his four-win season of 2021. LET THEM EAT: The No. 48 pit crew flexed their muscles on pit road last Sunday at Atlanta Motor Speedway, clocking in the fastest four-tire pit stop of all crews at 10.177 seconds.  The five-man crew consists of Andrew Bridgeforth (rear-tire changer), Jacob Conley (fueler), Allen Holman (jackman), Scott Riddle (tire carrier) and Donnie Tasser (front-tire changer).     SAVE THEM ALL: Bowman and primary partner Ally are teaming up this year to bring back the Best Friends Animal Society donation effort. This week, the duo will make charitable contributions to Canine Commitment of New England, which serves the local community in New Boston, New Hampshire. Bowman and Ally will donate $4,800 to Best Friends and Canine Commitment of New England. Ally will increase its donation to $10,000 if the No. 48 team wins on Sunday.      DAY ‘N’ NITE: The No. 48 Ally Chevrolet Camaro ZL1 will adorn two versions of its primary scheme during the 2023 Cup Series season. This weekend, the No. 48 Ally Chevy "day" scheme will be on track and it features a white base with bright plum, grapefruit, and seafoam stripes down the side. This version of the primary scheme will appear at races that take place during the day. When the lights come on over the racetrack, the black-based No. 48 Ally Chevy "night" scheme will be sported with a similar design to its daytime counterpart. Check out all the angles of the schemes here.  Alex Bowman, driver of the No. 48 Chevrolet Camaro ZL1, on his position in the point standings: "Obviously, this is not where we want to be. With the way the season started and then having to deal with my injury and a points penalty, we aren’t in a bad spot, but we have our work cut out for us. This weekend is another opportunity to go lock ourselves into the playoffs and that is what we are focused on." Blake Harris, crew chief of the No. 48 Chevrolet Camaro ZL1, on his thoughts heading to New Hampshire: "Unfortunately, Alex’s only time at Loudon last year ended early. Since then, we have had the No. 9 team run really well there towards the end of that race and they also did a tire test this year. We have a lot of data and a lot of good short-track data – Richmond (Raceway) was a strong race for us and I think there will be some things applicable from there. We will try to take all of that information, apply it to our No. 48 Ally Chevrolet Camaro ZL1 this weekend and go compete for a win."

Kyle Larson is 8/1 to win his first Cup race at New Hampshire

 

5 KYLE LARSON   Age: 30 (July 31, 1992)   Hometown: Elk Grove, California   Resides: Mooresville, North Carolina   Crew Chief: Cliff Daniels   Standings: 8th

No. 5 Valvoline Chevrolet Camaro ZL1   NECK-N-NECK IN NEW HAMPSHIRE: With three second-place finishes at New Hampshire Motor Speedway, Kyle Larson has the most runner-up results at the track of any NASCAR Cup Series driver all-time without a win there. He is tied for the fourth-most stage points earned (19) at the 1.058-mile track in the last two premier series races. In 12 Cup Series starts on "The Magic Mile," he has completed 98.9% of his laps attempted, led 16 laps and scored four top-five finishes. The 30-year-old driver’s average finish of 12.5 at the Loudon, New Hampshire, track is sixth-best among drivers in Sunday’s field.  LEADING LAPS: Larson is second in laps led this season (592), adding four circuits to that tally at Atlanta Motor Speedway. He trails only teammate William Byron (741) in this statistical category. The driver of the No. 5 has led 103 more laps than the third-place competitor. He ranks fourth in both laps run in the top five (1,821) and laps run in the top 10 (2,973). TALLYING TOP FIVES: Larson is tied with Byron for the most top-five finishes in points-paying Cup Series races in 2023 (eight). Counting his win in the non-points All-Star Race at North Wilkesboro Speedway, the Elk Grove, California, native, has finished in the top five at nine different tracks: second at Las Vegas Motor Speedway, fourth at Phoenix Raceway, first at Richmond Raceway, first at Martinsville Speedway, second at Kansas Speedway, fourth at WWT Raceway, fifth at Nashville Superspeedway and fourth at the Chicago Street Course. In addition, he is in a three-way tie for the fifth-most top-10 finishes (nine). MILE-RANGE MUSCLE: Sunday’s race at New Hampshire marks Larson’s 62nd start on tracks 1- to 1.37-miles in length (Darlington Raceway, Dover Motor Speedway, Nashville, New Hampshire, Phoenix and WWTR). In his previous 61 starts at tracks in that length range, he has collected three pole awards, three wins, 27 top-five finishes, 39 top-10s and 2,281 laps led. This season, he won the pole and led 201 laps at Phoenix and also contended late for the win at Darlington and WWTR. PIT CREW POWER: Through 19 races this season, the No. 5 pit crew ranks second overall in average four-tire pit stop time at 11.079 seconds. The team’s five-man pit crew consists of Blaine Anderson (front-tire changer), R.J. Barnette (tire carrier), Brandon Harder (fueler), Brandon Johnson (jackman) and Calvin Teague (rear-tire changer). EXTRACURRICULAR: In accompany to Larson’s full-time Cup Series schedule, the HendrickCars.com driver is running in several sprint car events. On Tuesday at Attica Raceway Park in Attica, Ohio, he won the feature race to become the first driver to win back-to-back at the Brad Doty Classic. Larson will also race in two events at Eldora Speedway in New Weston, Ohio. The first will see him race for the chance to win over $1,000,000 in Thursday's Eldora Million. He will then compete in the prestigious Kings Royal (on Friday and Saturday), where a 40th King will be crowned in the $175K-to-win race. Catch the action on DIRTVision.com.  VALVOLINE ON BOARD: This weekend at New Hampshire, Valvoline will make their second appearance of 2023 as the primary sponsor of Larson’s No. 5 Chevrolet Camaro ZL1. Valvoline Inc. (NYSE: VVV) is a leading worldwide marketer and supplier of premium branded lubricants and automotive services, with sales in more than 140 countries. Established in 1866, the company’s heritage spans more than 150 years, during which time it has developed powerful brand recognition across multiple product and service channels. Valvoline ranks as the No. 3 passenger car motor oil brand in the DIY market by volume. Off the track, Valvoline is the preferred lubricant of Hendrick Automotive Group, which operates 95 car dealerships across the United States. Check out Larson’s No. 5 Valvoline Chevy here. Kyle Larson, driver of the No. 5 Chevrolet Camaro ZL1, on racing at New Hampshire Motor Speedway: "I like New Hampshire (Motor Speedway) a lot. It’s different than the other tracks we go to. It’s really flat. Kind of like a bigger short track in a way. It’s really rough into turn three and it’s difficult. You have to be really patient with yourself and your car. It’s easy to get frustrated there if you’re not turning into the middle well, you’re loose in or your car is bouncing too much. It’s always hard to get the right feel there and I enjoy that challenge." Cliff Daniels, crew chief of the No. 5 Chevrolet Camaro ZL1, on building on the team's 2023 short-track success: "New Hampshire (Motor Speedway) is a tough track. We, as Hendrick Motorsports, have a little bit of a tough recent history there. I feel like our cars kind of get trapped in the sixth-to-10th (position) range. Obviously, our expectations are a lot higher than that. We are getting to work in all the areas that we can to try and better ourselves and level up our game. Our short-track package has been strong this year, obviously, with our wins coming on short tracks this year. That certainly doesn’t mean we can rest. We need to be sharp about what we need to do to execute for a good weekend. It starts with running good in practice and hopefully getting a good spot in qualifying, which leads to the pit pick that can really set you up for success. The race always seems to have some sort of asterisk in it for a mix up in strategy, an untimely caution, or whatever it may be. So, we just need to be on our toes and make good decisions throughout the day."