Micah Roberts' Top-10 Finish Prediction: 2023 Wurth 400 at Dover

1 #20 Christopher Bell (9/1) - He’s got a Dirt Race win this season and he’s also got two wins at Dover in the Xfinity Series in 2018 and 2019. This is his time in Cup I believe. Shop around for the best price, His best Cup finish in four starts was last season with fourth-place but the way I see it is that JGR has given him a great NextGen car and it’s basically the same car as last season. Again, shop around for the best price.

2 #5 Kyle Larson (5/1) - He’s so good at Dover that he’s almost averaging a top-five finish in his 14 Cup starts. He’s so good at Dover that his 6.9 average finish is better than 11-time Dover winner Jimmie Johnson’s (9.7). He’s the deserved favorite this week, but he comes with more risk than usual because it’s been hit or miss with him this season. He’s been 14th or better in six of his 10 starts this season with wins in two of his last four races. He won a 2017 Xfinity Series race at Dover and won in Cup in 2019.

3 #1 Ross Chastain (12/1) - He hasn’t won this season yet after getting his first two wins last season but there’s something fun about him. He’s earned his stripes and he’s good on all types of tracks. But his uprising happened with Trackhouse Racing and the NextGen car. He had his best car at Dover in eight starts last year there with a third-place finish after finishing fourth in the first stage and sixth in the second stage and led 86 laps. This is a good track for him.

4 #11 Denny Hamlin (8/1) - He grabbed his only Dover win in 32 Cup starts in 2020, the first of two-weekend races at Dover. It was back-to-back Saturday and Sunday due to COVID and it was fabulous. NASCAR was the highlight of that COVID disaster. They came back first to action, they were on national TV, and it kept me busy writing about something when nothing else was going on. Anyway, Hamlin had some issues last season – his first with the NextGen car – but he was better than his 21st-place finish after winning the first stage and leading 67 laps.

5 #9 Chase Elliott (13/2) - Hendrick Motorsports has more wins at Dover than any other organization and Elliott is already chasing his own records. Elliott has nine top-fives in 12 starts while Johnson had 17 top-fives in 38 starts. Elliott has two wins, including last season which was the first driving the NextGen car.

6 #19 Martin Truex Jr (10/1) - He’s a three-time winner at Dover and a three-time runner-up and while he’s looked competitive this season, the fact remains that he still hasn’t won with the NextGen car. No wins last season, no wins this season yet he’s still 10-to-1 as if he’s been winning regularly like Larson. The sportsbooks are sure he’s going to win soon and they don’t want to be exposed to a loss, or I guess that’s the reason for the short prices on Truex weekly. But I won’t be betting against him this week if that tells you anything.

7 #17 Chris Buecher (30/1) - First off, let me state that Buescher won a 2015 Xfinity Series race at Dover. The best Cup finish in his first 11 Cup starts was 14th in 2020. But the new car changed his luck last season when he started from the pole, led 18 laps, and had a career-best eighth-place finish. Then in September, he went to Bristol – a shorter version of Dover – and dominated everyone. He led a race-high 160 laps and won his second Cup race, but it wasn’t a gimmick as his first win at Pocono because he stayed out while everyone pitted and then the rain never stopped. That Bristol win has me thinking this week. Search for the best price.

8 #4 Kevin Harvick (11/1) - He’s a three-time winner at Dover, two of them coming in his last eight starts. His last eight starts have seen him finish ninth or better. He’s always good – 10 top-fives and 1,631 laps led. He’ll be a player on Sunday.

9 #6 Brad Keselowski (35/1) - He got his only Cup win at Dover in 2012, but he’s part of RFK Racing and his teammate is good at Dover and Bristol so he gets lumped in with the NextGen car success as Buescher.

10 #47 Ricky Stenhouse Jr. (55/1) - He had his best Cup finish at Dover last season with runner-up. It was his only top-five in 19 starts and his fourth top-10 and it came with the first season of the NextGen car. Dover is shaped like a mini-Bristol and Stenhouse has been great at Bristol at all stages of his career. Also, last thing, he has a win this season so he can go all out for the win without fear of losing points on wreck.

Read my full Top-20 Finish Prediction on Sportsline.com

Three teams have dominated Dover over last 18 Cup races (2013-2023)

In the last 18 NASCAR Cup Series races at Dover Motor Speedway (2013-2021) only three teams have visited Victory Lane – Hendrick Motorsports (nine wins during that time), Joe Gibbs Racing (five wins), and Stewart-Haas Racing (four wins).

The most recent to win at Dover Motor Speedway was Hendrick Motorsports, when Chase Elliott drove to the win last season. It was the organization’s, NASCAR Cup Series leading, 22nd victory among seven different drivers at Dover – Jimmie Johnson (11 wins), Jeff Gordon (five), Chase Elliott (two), Geoff Bodine (one), Ken Schrader (one), Ricky Rudd (one) and Alex Bowman (one). Nine of the 22 wins have come in the last 18 races (50%), half of the events from 2013-2022.

Not far behind HMS in wins at Dover is Joe Gibbs Racing with a total of nine NASCAR Cup Series Dover Motor Speedway victories; five of them coming in the last 18 events at the one-mile facility (2013-2022). The most recent Joe Gibbs Racing driver to win at Dover was Denny Hamlin in 2020; followed by Martin Truex Jr. (2019 and 2016), Kyle Busch (2017) and Matt Kenseth (2016).

The third organization to jump in on the wins at Dover Motor Speedway from 2013-2021 was Stewart-Haas Racing with four victories among two drivers – Tony Stewart (2013) and Kevin Harvick (2015, 2018, 2020).

“Dover is a racetrack that everything about it is unique,” said veteran Kevin Harvick. “The concrete, itself, all the way around the racetrack, is unique. Dover is a racetrack where you can get away with being aggressive every single lap. You have to drive the car as hard as it will go every single lap, and that’s hard to do there because there are all the little bumps that come with the concrete, the change of elevation as you go in and off the corners, and all the banking in the corners – it’s just a really, really fast racetrack. It’s also a very physical racetrack just because of all the G’s and the bouncing and everything that comes with driving around Dover. It’s a racetrack where you have to have your hands gripping on the steering wheel and gritting your teeth all at the same time in order to go fast every single lap. When your car’s off, there’s just nowhere to hide there. You wind up going a lap down, probably two laps down, because you pit early and then the caution comes out. It’s a beast of a racetrack and there’s a reason they call it the Monster Mile because you can get yourself in trouble really quick.”

This season, seven different drivers from six different organizations have won at least one race in the first 10 events; led by Kyle Busch, William Byron and Kyle Larson with two victories each. Hendrick Motorsports leads all organizations in wins this season with four victories; followed by Richard Childress Racing with two and JTG Daugherty Racing, Joe Gibbs Racing, 23XI Racing and Team Penske each have one win on the year.

 

Martin Truex Jr. is 10/1 to win fourth Dover race

 

Martin Truex Jr. Dover Advance No. 19 Bass Pro Shops Toyota Camry TRD for Joe Gibbs Racing

Event Overview

● Event: Wurth 400 (Round 11 of 36) ●  Time/Date: 2 p.m. EDT on Sunday, April 30 ●  Location: Dover (Del.) Motor Speedway ●  Layout: 1-mile, concrete oval ●  Laps/Miles: 400 laps/400 miles ●  Stage Lengths: Stage 1: 120 laps / Stage 2: 130 laps / Final Stage: 150 laps ●  TV/Radio:  FS1 / PRN / SiriusXM NASCAR Radio

Notes of Interest

● Truex and the No. 19 Bass Pro Shops Toyota Camry team for Joe Gibbs Racing (JGR) set the tone for the season right out of the gate by winning the 150-lap feature in the non-points Clash at the Coliseum on Feb. 5 in Los Angeles. Truex won his heat race, then went on to lead the final 25 laps of the feature en route to the victory.   ● Truex heads to Dover seventh in the driver standings with 281 points, 50 out of the lead.   ● First of Many: Truex’s first career NASCAR Cup Series victory came at Dover in June 2007. Its proximity to his hometown of Mayetta, New Jersey, makes Dover his home track, and his record there shows it definitely feels like home. Dover is one of five tracks where Truex has three career wins. In addition to Dover, Truex has won three wins apiece at Martinsville (Va.) Speedway, Richmond (Va.) International Raceway, Charlotte (N.C.) Motor Speedway and Sonoma (Calif.) Raceway.   ● In his 32 career Cup Series outings at Dover, Truex has three wins, nine top-five finishes, 18 top-10s, and he’s led a total of 1,001 laps. His average Dover finish is 11.8.   ● With his aforementioned three Dover wins, Truex is tied for winningest active driver at Dover with Kevin Harvick and Kyle Busch. Also, the New Jersey native is tied for most pole awards at Dover among active drivers with JGR teammate Denny Hamlin.   ● Truex has run particularly well at Dover since joining JGR in 2019. After scoring his first win for the team at Richmond in April of that year, he followed it up two weeks later with a victory at Dover. Truex has four top-five finishes at Dover in his six starts there with JGR.   ● Ahead at this Stage: Truex leads the NASCAR Cup Series with 56 stage wins since the beginning of the stage racing era in 2017. He is the only driver with 10 or more stage sweeps, as well. While Truex came close to winning a stage at the season-opening Daytona 500, he does not have a stage win so far this year.

Martin Truex Jr., Driver of the No. 19 Bass Pro Shops Toyota Camry TRD

With Dover hosting the race that’s closest to your hometown in New Jersey, do you view Dover at your home track?   “I view Dover as my hometown track, it’s closest to home. If you could drive across the bay, it would be really close. It’s close to home, for sure. I’ve been going there a long time and it’s a place that means a lot to me, starting early in my Busch Series career, and doing some racing there in my dad’s car, and my first Cup win there, as well. We’ve had a lot of success there, too. It’s a special place for me and I love going there, it feels like home. We have a lot of friends and family who go to that race, as well, and hoping we can get them a win with our Bass Pro Shops Camry.”   When you race at Dover, is it a larger contingent of friends and family than usual who get to attend and watch you race?   “No question, most of my friends and family come to that race. We’ve got quite the cheering section, which is pretty cool. We are racing so much all over the country that it’s nice to see some familiar faces and get to spend a little bit of time with friends and family. Maybe just a little bit of extra time before the race, but definitely well worth it.”   How do you assess your season so far, 10 points-paying races in, and your thoughts on some of the tracks coming up in the next stretch?   “I feel really good about where we are at. We’ve had some missed opportunities, for sure. It was really cool to start off the year winning the Clash out in L.A., and get some confidence and momentum. Since then, it’s been a bit up and down. Richmond was definitely one that got away, but I feel really good about where we are at as a team and, if we can execute some cleaner races, I think we are going to have a shot at winning coming up here soon. There are some really good tracks for me coming up over the next several weeks. We have Dover, Kansas, Darlington, all good tracks for us. You kind of have to throw away Talladega, but I feel like we are gaining momentum coming off good runs at Bristol on the dirt and at Martinsville. Like anything, it’s always about execution. There are so many things that go on in these races that can go the wrong way for you, we just got to keep focused and good things will come.”   Your strong stats at Dover speak for themselves. When the NextGen car arrived, did you lean on what you knew about Dover prior to last year?   “Knowing that track and what you need is always a big deal. With the new car last year, it was quite the learning curve everywhere we went. We really ran strong at Dover, though. We had a shot at winning, and we restarted on the front row late in the race and couldn’t quite get to the lead, and I think we were going for third there on the last lap and got spun out. It was a good race, we were right there really close to being able to win. Hopefully we can use what we learned there last year with our Bass Pro Shops Camry TRD and step it up a couple of notches.” What do you and your team need to lean on to have a successful race at Dover this weekend?   “Just build on what we learned last year and I think it’s important we qualify well, so hopefully we do that. Generally, when you qualify well there, you get a good pit stall and it sets you up for a smoother day. Staying out front all day long is very important, and track position is very important since it’s hard to pass. It’s a very fast track and you want to keep your track position. Hopefully we can qualify well and it can set us up for a really good day. Corner speeds are so high at Dover that it does become hard to pass. But we’ve also had years where it’s been hard to pass and we’ve driven through the whole field there, like in 2019. You’ve got to get your car dialed in right and, if you can do that, you can do pretty much what you want with it.”

Christopher Bell is 9/1 to win Wurth 400 at Dover

Christopher Bell / No. 20 Rheem Toyota Camry TRD Preview

Wurth 400 at Dover Motor Speedway

 

No. 20 Rheem Toyota Camry TRD News and Notes:

• DOVER MOTOR SPEEDWAY: Christopher Bell will make his fifth NASCAR Cup Series (NCS) start at Dover Motor Speedway this weekend. Bell’s first NCS start at the 1.0-mile concrete oval came in 2020 in a double header weekend. In 2021 he qualified 11^th and finished 21^st.  In 2022 Bell had his strongest NCS run to date at Dover. Bell qualified 17^th and with some pit strategy restarted fifth on Monday at Dover after rain postponed the race. Bell started stage two second but a few laps in reported a loose wheel and had to pit. The team lost two laps but rallied back by taking the “wave around” during stage two and also racing his way into the “lucky dog” position. Bell was running ninth with 100 laps to go and raced his way up to fourth by the checkered flag.
• MONSTER MILE: Bell has four prior starts at Dover in the NASCAR Xfinity Series (NXS) and has tamed the Monster Mile twice, taking home the wins in the fall of 2018 and the spring of 2019.  Overall, Bell has two wins, three top-five and three top-10 NXS finishes at Dover.   
• SPECIAL RECOGNITION: Rheem will highlight Friedrich Air Conditioning Co. on the No. 20 Rheem Toyota Camry TRD this weekend at Dover. For more information visit: https://www.friedrich.com/
• RHEEM GUESTS: Rheem will be hosting 95 guests this weekend at Dover. There will be guests on-site from Friedrich, Air Conditioning Division United Supply, Rheem Canada, Rheem Water Heating Division Northeast, Raypak, and the Air Commercial Division – Business Development.
• TALLADEGA RECAP: Bell qualified seventh and had a good handling car throughout the first two stages. During the final stage Bell got hung on the outside and lost positions with nine laps to go. A caution with five laps remaining gave the team an opportunity to pit for fuel only as the race came down to fuel mileage. Bell survived multi-car wrecks and had enough fuel to make it to end to earn an eighth-place finish at Talladega.
• JGR AT DOVER: JGR has claimed nine NCS victories at Dover. In 154 combined starts the organization has tallied 49 top-five finishes, 78 top-10s and 3,529 laps led. The championship-winning organization has an average start of 12.4 an average finish of 15.1.
• RACE INFO: The Wurth 400 at Dover Motor Speedway begins at 2:00 p.m. ET on Sunday, April 30, 2023. The race will be broadcast live on FS1, SiriusXM 90, and PRN Radio.

 

From the Cockpit:

Christopher Bell: “We’re looking for a good run at Dover. It’s one of my favorite tracks and a place we ran well at last year, I’m ready to get there and see what we can do this year.” 

 

Bell’s Career NASCAR Cup Series Stats at Dover Motor Speedway:

Starts	Wins	Top 5	Top 10	Poles	Laps Led	Avg. Start	Avg. Finish
4	0	1	1	0	0	17.5	18.5

 

Bell’s 2023 NASCAR Cup Series Season Stats:

Starts	Wins	Top 5	Top 10	Poles	Laps Led	Avg. Start	Avg. Finish
10	1	5	7	0	154	9.8	10.9

 

Bell’s Career NASCAR Cup Series Season Stats:

Starts	Wins	Top 5	Top 10	Poles	Laps Led	Avg. Start	Avg. Finish
118	5	26	50	4	845	14.7	16.1

 

 

Ty Gibbs is 50/1 to win Wurth 400 at Dover

Ty Gibbs / No. 54 He Gets Us Toyota Camry TRD Preview

Wurth 400

 

No. 54 He Gets Us Toyota Camry TRD News and Notes

• FIRST SEASON: Ty Gibbs is competing in his first full NASCAR Cup Series season driving the No. 54 He Gets Us Toyota Camry TRD.
• 2023: Gibbs is 20^th in the NASCAR point standings and scored four consecutive top-10 finishes in March and April at Atlanta Motor Speedway, Circuit of the Americas in Austin, Texas, Richmond (Va.) Raceway and Bristol (Tenn.) Motor Speedway.
• DOVER: Gibbs has never started a NASCAR Cup Series start at Dover Motor Speedway. He has two Xfinity Series starts and finished in the top-five in both of them.    
• ONE OF THIRTY-SEVEN: Gibbs made his first career NASCAR Cup Series start in July 2022 at Pocono Raceway for 23XI Racing. Gibbs is the 37^th driver younger than 20-years old to make a Cup Series start. Gibbs started at the rear of the field, but completed all 160 laps and finished an impressive 16^th. He has competed in 15 Cup races with a best finish of 10^th at Michigan International Speedway.
• NEW RECORD: Gibbs is the youngest driver ever to reach 11 victories in the NASCAR Xfinity Series at age 20 years, one month and one day old. The previous record was held by Joey Logano.
• 2021: Gibbs completed in only 18 Xfinity races in 2021, but won four races and finished 13^th in the Xfinity Series final driver point standings. That earned him the Xfinity Rookie of the Year award.
• WHAT A DEBUT: In Gibbs’ Xfinity Series debut in February 2021 at the Daytona Road Course, he led 14 of the 56 laps en route to his first career Xfinity Series win. Gibbs became the youngest driver to win a Xfinity road course race at 18 years, 4 months, 16 days. The Charlotte, N.C., native also became the second-youngest winner in Xfinity Series history after Joey Logano who won in June 2008 at Kentucky Speedway in Sparta when he was 18 years and 21 days old.
• IN GOOD COMPANY: Gibbs is the sixth driver to win in his Xfinity Series debut, joining Dale Earnhardt, Joe Ruttman, Ricky Rudd, Terry Labonte and Kurt Busch. Those five drivers had already driven in the NASCAR Cup Series before racing in the Xfinity Series.
• ARCA CHAMPIONS: Gibbs became the 2021 ARCA Menard Series Champions on the strength of 10 wins, plus one win each in ARCA West and ARCA East.
• ATOP THE PIT BOX: Veteran crew chief Chris Gayle will oversee the No. 54 team’s efforts in the 2023 season. Gale, who is from Little Rock, Arkansas, has led his drivers to two NASCAR Cup Series victories and 37 Xfinity Series wins. He was also the crew chief of the 2022 NASCAR Xfinity Series championship with Gibbs. The list of drivers Gayle has visited victory lane with includes Gibbs, Kyle Busch, Denny Hamlin, Sam Hornish Jr., Erik Jones, Elliott Sadler, Christopher Bell and John Hunter Nemechek.
• JGR AT DOVER: Joe Gibbs Racing (JGR) has 154 total starts at Dover in Cup competition with nine wins, 49 top-five and 78 top-10 finishes. The team has led 3,529 laps.
• RACE INFO: The NASCAR Cup Series race at Dover is scheduled for 2 pm EDT on Sunday, April 30 and will be broadcast on FS1, SiriusXM Channel 90 and PRN.

 

Ty Gibbs, Driver of the No. 54 He Gets Us Toyota Camry TRD

“Dover is one of the final few tracks that I haven’t been to in a Cup car so I’m looking forward to it. I like the track and have run well there in there in the Xfinity Series. It’s a challenging track and concrete so it’s different than what we normally run on. Hopefully we’ll bring a good He Gets Us Toyota Camry TRD.”

 

 

Gibbs 2023 NASCAR Cup Series Stats

Starts	Wins	Top 5	Top 10	Poles	Laps Led	Avg. Start	Avg. Finish
10	0	0	4	0	4	17.8	17.7

 

 

Gibbs 2022 NASCAR Cup Series Stats

Starts	Wins	Top 5	Top 10	Poles	Laps Led	Avg. Start	Avg. Finish
15	0	0	1	0	2	17.0	22.9