Thursday, April 6, 2023

Micah Roberts' Top-10 Finish Prediction: 2023 Food City Dirt Race at Bristol

The eighth race of the 2023 NASCAR Cup season takes us to one of the cathedrals of the sport at Bristol Motor Speedway’s half-mile layout, but for the third straight season, the Bristol spring race will have dirt thrown on it instead of the popular asphalt. It’s the Food City Bristol Dirt Race, a race format NASCAR executives have told everyone that NASCAR needs this to grow the sport, but I’m still not feeling it. It will be interesting to see the TV ratings afterward even though all seven previous NASCAR Cup races this season have dropped below last year's ratings.

For my full write-up and top-20 prediction visit Sportsline.com.

Here’s what I’m thinking for Sunday night’s Bristol Dirt Race with odds courtesy of Caesars sportsbooks:

1 #99 Daniel Suarez (20/1) - He didn’t have much Dirt Race experience prior to Bristol but he raced like he’s been doing it his entire career. He started 18th and finished fourth in 2021 and led 58 laps. Last season he started 21st and ended up 12th but found his way to the front again leading 64 laps. So why not lead some more laps Sunday night and get the win? Of all the driver's odds, this is the price that stood out the most.

2 #45 Tyler Reddick (6/1) - He was seventh in the 2021 Dirt Race and last season he was runner-up after leading 99 laps but probably should have won. He’s the favorite here for a reason, lots of skills on the dirt.

3 #20 Christopher Bell (6/1) - He started second in last year's Dirt Race and finished seventh and finished 34th on the inaugural Dirt Race in 2021. But his Dirt Track experience makes him the second odds choice to win.

4 #8 Kyle Busch (10/1) - I’m most amused by his pre-race comments about the Bristol Dirt Race where he had nothing positive to say about the 2022 Dirt experience along the lines of it not being worthy of NASCARs top series and talk that he’s battled all these years only to go backwards onto dirt. But the funny thing is that he won last season. He led one lap, the last one after leaders Briscoe and Reddick got tangled up together.

5 #14 Chase Briscoe (9/1) - Last season he led 59 laps in the Dirt Race and took a big gamble on the last lap that didn’t pay off and finished 22nd wrecking both he and Reddick allowing Kyle Busch to win.

6 #22 Joey Logano (12/1)
 - He’s had two races on the Bristol dirt and he has the best-combined finish between both. He started 10th in the 2021 inaugural Dirt Race and led 61 laps and won the race while all the dirt racers looked in awe. Last season he started 10th again and finished third.

7 #11 Denny Hamlin (15/1) - Last season didn’t go so well for him on the dirt finishing 35th, but in 2021 he was running with the leaders most of the race finishing third from a start position on the outside front row.

8 #5 Kyle Larson (9/2) - He’s been the favorite the last three years of the Bristol Dirt Race because that’s what he does for fun. He’s racing in anything during the week when he’s not driving on asphalt in the Cup Series. I still think he’s overpriced.

9 #13 Jonathan Davenport (60/1) - They call him Superman because he’s the best dirt track driver and was last year’s top-ranked Dirt Late Model driver. He’s regarded as one of the greatest drivers to ever compete in Dirt Late Model Racing. It’s his first start in the NASCAR Cup Series.

10 #19 Martin Truex Jr (20/1) - He has dirt finishes of 19th and 21st at Bristol, but he was much better than those finishes indicate. In 2021 he led 126 laps and then got a flat late in the race.

No comments: