Micah Roberts' Top-10 Finish Prediction: 2023 Coke Zero Sugar 400 at Daytona

Read my full article on Sportsline.com

1 #6 Brad Keselowski (12/1) – He leads all active drivers with seven superspeedway wins, six of them at Talladega, but he’s still a player at Daytona with 239 laps led over 28 starts. He’s led the most laps (109) in the last two Daytona 500s and I expect him to find the front again and lead some more. No wins in his two seasons as part owner of RFK Racing but his teammate Chris Buescher has won twice recently. This team is going in the right direction and I see him running a great game plan. Shop around for the best price.

2 #3 Austin Dillon (25/1) – Can you believe there are 28 drivers ahead of Dillon in the standings? It’s been a miserable season. Just one top-five in the first 25 races. Stick a fork in him, he’s done. But is he? He won this race last season to make the playoffs. He won the 2018 Daytona 500. He has the second-best average finish (15.6) at Daytona among all active drivers. He thinks he can win and he’s got a strategy and I bet him because I know he’d wreck his Mama to get the win. For him to win, he’s going to need a few “big ones” to limit the number of contenders against him and chances are great that happens.

3 #9 Chase Elliott (12/1) – He’s much better at Talladega than Daytona where he’s averaged a 22nd-place finish in 15 Cup starts. No wins, two top-fives. But this is for a playoff berth. He has to win to make it and he’s NASCAR’s headliner. He’s the golden boy. He’s why we have all these road courses because he was the best at them. The idea was he would always be in the playoffs because he was sure to win at least one race on the road course. But he hasn’t won on the roads in two years since the NextGen car was introduced. If you believe in conspiracies, you would certainly bet on Elliott.

4 #23 Bubba Wallace (17/1) - He’s got a comfortable 32-point lead but as soon as you try to stay out of trouble, trouble finds you. It’s racing at Daytona. It’s best to stay out of trouble by running up front and I think he can do it for most of the race, and then not let out any daring moves until the laps 10 laps. He can guarantee a playoff spot by just winning the race. He has four top-fives in 12 Daytona starts.

5 #22 Joey Logano (12/1) - He’s one of the better superspeedway drivers and I’ll have a bet on him at a better price than Caesars. He won the 2015 Daytona 500, but it’s what he’s done with the NextGen car recently that has me liking him this week. He was runner-up in February’s Daytona 500 after winning one of the Duels three days earlier. He leads laps almost every time he’s been racing at Daytona.

6 #12 Ryan Blaney (12/1) - He was eighth in February’s Daytona 500 and he was fourth in it in 2022. He won at Daytona in the summer of 2021 and he was runner-up in the 2020 Daytona 500. Like his teammate Logano, he’s always got a car set up to lead laps and put himself into position to win.

7 #34 Michael McDowell (35/1) – He led one lap in the 2021 Daytona 500, the last one, to win his first career Cup race. He won at Indy this season for his second win so he’s not sweating the playoffs. But he was always someone who just hung around until making something happen with five to 10 laps to go. Gotta stay in it to win it and he does it brilliantly.

8 #47 Ricky Stenhouse Jr. (25/1) - He has no pressure this week because his Daytona 500 wins secured a spot in the playoffs so he can go out and win for his team. He’s been remarkably consistent this season which includes a 12th at Sonoma, a 13th at Watkins Glen, and a seventh at Pocono. All three of his career wins have come on superspeedways. I’ll have a bet on him for sure

9 #11 Denny Hamlin (12/1) - He’s one of the best at manipulating the draft to find speed that his counterparts can’t find. It’s why he’s a three-time Daytona 500 champ and why his 654 laps led at Daytona are the most among active drivers. He has 11 top-fives as well in 35 starts. He’s also running at his best of the season. His crew is on point and I see him winning his first-ever championship.

10 #54 Ty Gibbs (25/1) – He’s got two Daytona Cup starts at Daytona and averaged a 19th-place finish but this one is different. For one, he’s grown up as a driver and is learning new tricks from teammates and other opponents. Secondly, he’s desperate to make the playoffs but he’s in 17th position, one spot out of making the playoffs. One wreck can change the entire landscape of the standings and you can believe the “big one” that happens will take out several of the aggressive desperates.

Micah Roberts' Top-10 Finish Prediction: 2023 Grant Park 220 on Chicago Streets

Check out my full article on the Chicago race at Sportsline.com

1 #19 Martin Truex Jr. (7/1) - He just won at Sonoma leading a race-high 51 laps. His car dominated the end of the race. It was the best set-up he had with a JGR Toyota in the last 10 road races. It was his first top-five in his last 10 road races and also the first time he’s led a lap in his last 10 road races. The roads become more important in today’s NASCAR that Toyota has made huge grounds in setting up a quality ride. They had the best two cars at Sonoma, not by accident, but by making huge grounds in their road racing program. Truex has five road course wins now and might have six by the end of Saturday. He should be the favorite to win this race.

2 #45 Tyler Reddick (13/2) - He’s won three of the last six races on road courses and has led laps in five of his last six. The Toyota brand was on point for his car at COTA but finished 33rd at Sonoma after a decent start. But he never really contended at Sonoma after finishing sixth in the first stage. So the question is will he be set up better than everyone like he was at COTA or do we get the Sonoma set up? He’s batting .500 in his last six road races, so the price is somewhat attractive.

3 #17 Chris Buescher (20/1) - The new car has been his biggest edge on the road courses. He knows what he needs to run well, explains it to his team, and they give him what he needs to compete for a win. His last seven road starts with the new car have seen him finish in the top-10. His consistency in performance and car set-up has been amazing. He was runner-up at Sonoma last season and was fourth this season. He also was eighth at COTA in March. All top-10s, in seven straight of anything, is pretty good, but seven road courses are something that deserves some betting attention.

4 #16 A.J. Allmendinger (10/1) - His two wins in the NASCAR Cup Series have come on road courses, the last coming at the Indy course in 2021. His last six road starts have been amazing with a ninth or better in five of his last six. He was sixth at Sonoma three weeks ago. A new course, he’ll have an edge with attitude, arrogance, and skill.

5 #8 Kyle Busch (12/1) - He might offer the best value with his price-to-performance road racing ratio this week. Can he win? Sure why not, he has three wins already this season. But how about road courses? He has four wins and 18 top-fives over his 49 road starts. How about this season? He has a runner-up each at COTA and Sonoma, two-for-two in second place. It’s obvious the edge on roads that Tyler Reddick had last season in the first year of the NextGen car is still an edge with Busch driving it.

6 #9 Chase Elliott (5/1) - He has the most glorious road racing resume in NASCAR with an eighth-place average finish, seven wins in 26 starts with 15 top-fives, and 470 laps led. But he hasn’t won in his last 10 road races. He hasn’t won the last seven races on road courses using the NextGen car and while it might make sense that NASCAR’s main character wins on a new street circuit I just haven’t seen it yet with the new car. So how can I bet him now as the 5-to-1 favorite to do something he hasn’t done yet? His time is ticking as the countdown to the playoffs behind and he needs a win to make it.

7 #5 Kyle Larson (7/1) - He’s won four of the last 13 road course events but most of that damage was done in 2021 with the old car. He’s only won one road race in his last eight starts, including two very mediocre performances this season. He didn’t lead a lap in his last three and five of his last six road events. His recent history suggests his true price is 18-to-1 so why would I take 7-to-1?

8 #99 Daniel Suarez (25/1) - Seeing his teammate win last week raised the bar for Trackhouse Racing. Now it’s Suarez’s turn and after winning at Sonoma last season he finished fifth at Road America and Watkins Glen. But he finished 27th at COTA and 22nd at Sonoma this season. I would need 35/1 odds to bet him to win.

9 #11 Denny Hamlin (30/1) - The reason you might bet him this week besides the attractive price is because his car was bad-fast at Sonoma when he won the pole and led the first 32 laps, won the first stage, and then got an accident to finish poorly. The top two cars there were JGR Toyotas. They’ve found something in the NextGen car to help them get a better balance in their road setups. Overall, he has one road win and 13 top-fives in 47 road starts.

10 #34 Michael McDowell (25/1) - He was discovered by NASCAR driving on road courses and he’s showing off his skills during his last seven road course races beginning with a third last season at Sonoma and a seventh this season at Sonoma. He’s been 12th or better in six of his last seven road course starts. He’s a player this week as his low odds indicate.

Micah Roberts' Top-10 Finish Prediction: 2023 Ally 400 at Nashville Superspeedway

Read my top-20 thoughts at Nashville on Sportsline.com

1 #1 Ross Chastain (10/1) - He has slowed his roll a bit after a few altercations and perhaps he hasn’t been as aggressive because of the chitter-chatter in the garages regarding him, but this is one I think he goes all out for the win. In 2021, he drove the No. 42 to a runner-up at Nashville and in 2022 with the NextGen car he was fifth. Only two drivers have top-fives in the first two Nashville Cup races and he’s one of them. No wins yet, paying his due respect to his competitors, slowing down to stay out of trouble, that’s all out the window Sunday night. He lets loose and goes for the win hard.

2 #19 Martin Truex Jr. (7/1) - He’s got two wins since May began and he’s finding his way to the front in five of his last seven races. He probably should have won at Darlington where he led 145 laps from the pole until crashing late. That is my first angle. The second angle is that Nashville saw the Toyotas dialed in last season, the first with the NextGen car, with Truex leading 82 laps and winning the first two stages. He’s going to be tough to beat.

“Nashville is really interesting,” Truex said. “We had a really strong car last year. Led a bunch and won both Stage 1 and Stage 2 and was in really good shape. The rain delay came, the track cooled off and changed a lot and we went from us and the 11 (Denny Hamlin) as the two cars to beat to all of a sudden five or more guys right there with us. I don’t remember exactly how we got shuffled out of the lead but I know it had something to do with the pit cycle and pit stops. Once you lose the lead, you lose the advantage, and some other guys got faster as it cooled off when it was so much later at night and we just couldn’t get back to the front. I feel like we’ve been bringing some really good cars to the track and would expect us to be strong at Nashville this weekend. Looking forward to getting back there with our Bass Pro Shops Toyota Camry TRD and hope to be able to have a stronger end to the race than we did last year.”

3 #24 William Byron (8/1) - He’s tied for the Cup lead with three wins and leads everyone with seven top-fives. The first two Nashville Cup wins were won by different Hendrick drivers. Maybe Byron is next up? He was third in his 2021 debut on the concrete track and ran into trouble last season finishing 35th, but I believe he’ll have one of the best cars on race day.

4 #11 Denny Hamlin (8/1) - You can see he’s charging hard just by looking at him leading seven of the last eight races and all kinds of different tracks. Like Truex, JGR Toyotas have things figured out for the stretch run before the playoffs begin. Last season, Hamlin finished sixth after leading a race high 114 laps.

“Nashville is a fun racetrack and a great market for us to go to,” Hamlins said. “The track is a lot different than anywhere else we race at being that size and a concrete surface. I felt like the Next Gen car raced really well there last year. We were able to have a long back-and-forth battle for the lead, and it seemed like there were multiple grooves, so I feel like this week should be no different. I’m looking forward to going there and hopefully, we can put ourselves in contention at the end of the race.”

5 #12 Ryan Blaney (10/1) - He’s notched his first win in three seasons so he’s got that monkey off his back. He’s in the playoffs, now it’s time for gravy. Now it’s time to stand strong and be the aggressor. He was third last season at Nashville.

6 #9 Chase Elliott (8/1) - He sits 27th in points due to missing six early season races and the only way he makes the playoffs is with a win and he won this race last season after leading 42 laps. A Hendrick Chevy has won both Nashville races. He was 11th at the 1-mile high-banked Dover layout on concrete in early May. He’s going to win soon, somewhere, but the question is where.

7 #5 Kyle Larson (5/1) - He has two wins this season coming at Richmond and Martinsville and probably should have two more. He is one of two drivers with two top-fives at Nasgville, winning in 2021 and finishing fourth in the NextGen car last season. This is the perfect spot for him to win because of having lots of grooves and lots of room to maneuver but I can’t bet his inflated odds when he’s had issues that forced him to finish 29th or worse in six races this season.

8 #20 Christopher Bell (10/1) - He started out with five top-fives in his first eight races this season culminating with a Bristol Dirt race win, but no top-fives since then. This should be a good track for and JGR.

“Nashville has one of the most unique surfaces on the circuit and is a big race for the DEWALT team,” Bell said. “It’s important to get momentum headed into the second half of the season.”

9 #45 Tyler Reddick (15/1) - He was 18th in both Nashville races the last two seasons, but that was with RCR. Now he’s basically a subsidiary of JGR while racing for 23x11 Racing which Kurt Busch drove last season to a runner-up finish. I expect Reddick to have his best career finish at Nashville Sunday night.

10 #22 Joey Logano (15/1) - He’s had two top-10 finishes in the two Nashville Cup races but was never a contender to win. It’s been a weird 2023 for him with one Atlanta win and only two top-fives. But why I like him to compete well this week is that he’s always run well on concrete and also won the 2009 Xfinity Series race at Nashville.

 

Micah Roberts' Top-10 Finish Prediction: 2023 Wurth 400 at Dover

1 #20 Christopher Bell (9/1) - He’s got a Dirt Race win this season and he’s also got two wins at Dover in the Xfinity Series in 2018 and 2019. This is his time in Cup I believe. Shop around for the best price, His best Cup finish in four starts was last season with fourth-place but the way I see it is that JGR has given him a great NextGen car and it’s basically the same car as last season. Again, shop around for the best price.

2 #5 Kyle Larson (5/1) - He’s so good at Dover that he’s almost averaging a top-five finish in his 14 Cup starts. He’s so good at Dover that his 6.9 average finish is better than 11-time Dover winner Jimmie Johnson’s (9.7). He’s the deserved favorite this week, but he comes with more risk than usual because it’s been hit or miss with him this season. He’s been 14th or better in six of his 10 starts this season with wins in two of his last four races. He won a 2017 Xfinity Series race at Dover and won in Cup in 2019.

3 #1 Ross Chastain (12/1) - He hasn’t won this season yet after getting his first two wins last season but there’s something fun about him. He’s earned his stripes and he’s good on all types of tracks. But his uprising happened with Trackhouse Racing and the NextGen car. He had his best car at Dover in eight starts last year there with a third-place finish after finishing fourth in the first stage and sixth in the second stage and led 86 laps. This is a good track for him.

4 #11 Denny Hamlin (8/1) - He grabbed his only Dover win in 32 Cup starts in 2020, the first of two-weekend races at Dover. It was back-to-back Saturday and Sunday due to COVID and it was fabulous. NASCAR was the highlight of that COVID disaster. They came back first to action, they were on national TV, and it kept me busy writing about something when nothing else was going on. Anyway, Hamlin had some issues last season – his first with the NextGen car – but he was better than his 21st-place finish after winning the first stage and leading 67 laps.

5 #9 Chase Elliott (13/2) - Hendrick Motorsports has more wins at Dover than any other organization and Elliott is already chasing his own records. Elliott has nine top-fives in 12 starts while Johnson had 17 top-fives in 38 starts. Elliott has two wins, including last season which was the first driving the NextGen car.

6 #19 Martin Truex Jr (10/1) - He’s a three-time winner at Dover and a three-time runner-up and while he’s looked competitive this season, the fact remains that he still hasn’t won with the NextGen car. No wins last season, no wins this season yet he’s still 10-to-1 as if he’s been winning regularly like Larson. The sportsbooks are sure he’s going to win soon and they don’t want to be exposed to a loss, or I guess that’s the reason for the short prices on Truex weekly. But I won’t be betting against him this week if that tells you anything.

7 #17 Chris Buecher (30/1) - First off, let me state that Buescher won a 2015 Xfinity Series race at Dover. The best Cup finish in his first 11 Cup starts was 14th in 2020. But the new car changed his luck last season when he started from the pole, led 18 laps, and had a career-best eighth-place finish. Then in September, he went to Bristol – a shorter version of Dover – and dominated everyone. He led a race-high 160 laps and won his second Cup race, but it wasn’t a gimmick as his first win at Pocono because he stayed out while everyone pitted and then the rain never stopped. That Bristol win has me thinking this week. Search for the best price.

8 #4 Kevin Harvick (11/1) - He’s a three-time winner at Dover, two of them coming in his last eight starts. His last eight starts have seen him finish ninth or better. He’s always good – 10 top-fives and 1,631 laps led. He’ll be a player on Sunday.

9 #6 Brad Keselowski (35/1) - He got his only Cup win at Dover in 2012, but he’s part of RFK Racing and his teammate is good at Dover and Bristol so he gets lumped in with the NextGen car success as Buescher.

10 #47 Ricky Stenhouse Jr. (55/1) - He had his best Cup finish at Dover last season with runner-up. It was his only top-five in 19 starts and his fourth top-10 and it came with the first season of the NextGen car. Dover is shaped like a mini-Bristol and Stenhouse has been great at Bristol at all stages of his career. Also, last thing, he has a win this season so he can go all out for the win without fear of losing points on wreck.

Read my full Top-20 Finish Prediction on Sportsline.com

Micah Roberts' Top-10 Finish Prediction: 2023 Food City Dirt Race at Bristol

The eighth race of the 2023 NASCAR Cup season takes us to one of the cathedrals of the sport at Bristol Motor Speedway’s half-mile layout, but for the third straight season, the Bristol spring race will have dirt thrown on it instead of the popular asphalt. It’s the Food City Bristol Dirt Race, a race format NASCAR executives have told everyone that NASCAR needs this to grow the sport, but I’m still not feeling it. It will be interesting to see the TV ratings afterward even though all seven previous NASCAR Cup races this season have dropped below last year's ratings.

For my full write-up and top-20 prediction visit Sportsline.com.

Here’s what I’m thinking for Sunday night’s Bristol Dirt Race with odds courtesy of Caesars sportsbooks:

1 #99 Daniel Suarez (20/1) - He didn’t have much Dirt Race experience prior to Bristol but he raced like he’s been doing it his entire career. He started 18th and finished fourth in 2021 and led 58 laps. Last season he started 21st and ended up 12th but found his way to the front again leading 64 laps. So why not lead some more laps Sunday night and get the win? Of all the driver's odds, this is the price that stood out the most.

2 #45 Tyler Reddick (6/1) - He was seventh in the 2021 Dirt Race and last season he was runner-up after leading 99 laps but probably should have won. He’s the favorite here for a reason, lots of skills on the dirt.

3 #20 Christopher Bell (6/1) - He started second in last year's Dirt Race and finished seventh and finished 34th on the inaugural Dirt Race in 2021. But his Dirt Track experience makes him the second odds choice to win.

4 #8 Kyle Busch (10/1) - I’m most amused by his pre-race comments about the Bristol Dirt Race where he had nothing positive to say about the 2022 Dirt experience along the lines of it not being worthy of NASCARs top series and talk that he’s battled all these years only to go backwards onto dirt. But the funny thing is that he won last season. He led one lap, the last one after leaders Briscoe and Reddick got tangled up together.

5 #14 Chase Briscoe (9/1) - Last season he led 59 laps in the Dirt Race and took a big gamble on the last lap that didn’t pay off and finished 22nd wrecking both he and Reddick allowing Kyle Busch to win.

6 #22 Joey Logano (12/1) - He’s had two races on the Bristol dirt and he has the best-combined finish between both. He started 10th in the 2021 inaugural Dirt Race and led 61 laps and won the race while all the dirt racers looked in awe. Last season he started 10th again and finished third.

7 #11 Denny Hamlin (15/1) - Last season didn’t go so well for him on the dirt finishing 35th, but in 2021 he was running with the leaders most of the race finishing third from a start position on the outside front row.

8 #5 Kyle Larson (9/2) - He’s been the favorite the last three years of the Bristol Dirt Race because that’s what he does for fun. He’s racing in anything during the week when he’s not driving on asphalt in the Cup Series. I still think he’s overpriced.

9 #13 Jonathan Davenport (60/1) - They call him Superman because he’s the best dirt track driver and was last year’s top-ranked Dirt Late Model driver. He’s regarded as one of the greatest drivers to ever compete in Dirt Late Model Racing. It’s his first start in the NASCAR Cup Series.

10 #19 Martin Truex Jr (20/1) - He has dirt finishes of 19th and 21st at Bristol, but he was much better than those finishes indicate. In 2021 he led 126 laps and then got a flat late in the race.

Martinsville NASCAR Betting Preview: 2022 Xfinity 500

 NASCAR Xfinity 500 Picks, Predictions, Odds

Micah Roberts

Sports Betting Expert

14 minute read

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We’ve come to the end of the road, almost. 

Just two races remain on the season, and Sunday’s Xfinity 500 at Martinsville Speedway’s flat half-mile paperclip layout will be the final race of the Round of 8 in the playoffs. Four drivers will get chopped from the playoffs after the race and four drivers will comprise of the Championship 4 and race for the season championship next week at Phoenix Raceway. 

Here’s a look at what I’m thinking this week using the odds order from BetMGM sportsbooks.

XFINITY 500 BETTING RESOURCES

Date: Sunday, October 30, 2022
Venue: Martinsville Speedway
Location: Ridgeway, Virginia
Distance: 263 miles
Laps: 500
Network-Time: NBC - 2:00 p.m.
Defending Champion: Alex Bowman

XFINITY 500 PICKS & PREDICTIONS

Chase Elliott (6/1) - He deserves to be the favorite because Hendrick Motorsports has this track figured out, he kicked it strong in the April race with the NextGen car leading 185 laps but finishing 10th. He’s got a championship at stake and he sits third in points. He has to race smart and points race here, I think. Sure he’ll have a car that can win, but the bigger picture is at play here. In 14 Cup starts at Martinsville he has a win, five top-fives, and 903 laps led. 

Denny Hamlin (7/1) - He’s the active leader with five Martinsville wins and 1,987 laps led. He has 16 top-fives in 33 career Cup starts. No one is better than him at Martinsville because he’s a Virginian and has been racing at the track forever. But he still needs the car and the NextGen car has not been able to meet his requirement standards. He started 25th in the spring race and finished 28th. He’s fifth in points and needs help to make the Championship 4, or he could just win. He’s got a plan.

“It’s going to be a fight. It’s definitely not going to be easy,’ Hamlin said. “I expect that passing is going to be very difficult, so track position is going to be super important. We’ve got to go in there Saturday and qualify up front and have good short run speed in addition to the long run speed. That has hurt us pretty bad the last couple of weeks but knowing how difficult it’s going to be to pass, I think we’ll put a little more emphasis on that and hopefully be able to get some stage points to give ourselves a chance to advance.”

Ryan Blaney (8/1) - There were 19 different drivers with wins this season and Blaney wasn’t one of them. But he’s still alive in the playoffs. He can still be the 2022 champ with a great run here where he’s been great since coming to Team Penske. All six of his top-fives in Martinsville have come in the nine races since 2018 when he signed with Penske. He should have at least one win there by now, like last spring when he won the first two stages, led 157 laps, and then finished 11th. He was fourth in the spring race this season. I’m on board for a win this week. Punt somebody Ryan, be tough, go big! Search for better odds.

(Getty)

William Byron (8/1) - He sits fourth in points and with a nice day he can stay above the cutline. But Hamlin is only 5-points behind him. I think he can win again. He won in the spring and led a race-high 212 laps, but he was strong there before the NextGen car as well. His last win was at Martinsville. Let’s see if they can dust off all those notes from April and see if they can get themselves into the Championship 4 at Phoenix. 

Joey Logano (9/1) - He’s leading the playoffs. He’s going for his second title. It’s right there and Phoenix is a great track for him. But so is Martinsville with a win and nine top-fives in 27 starts. He’s led 1,098 laps. The problem I have this week is that he may not go for the win, or make a move to irritate someone who can retaliate at Phoenix, and at Martinsville, you have to ruffle some feathers to win. It’s hard to pass. Play it safe, go for the win next week.

Martin Truex Jr. (9/1) - From 2017 to 2021, no one was better at Martinsville than Truex. Three wins, seven top-fives, and lots of laps led. NextGen car enters 2022 and goodbye to a strong edge. It’s been like that for Toyota drivers collectively at curtain tracks. No one that follows NASCAR is running to bet this at BetMGM because of the new car and also because he hasn’t won a race in 2022. He missed the playoffs. This price is definitely malpractice by the robots making the odds. He was 22nd in the spring race.

“Hopefully it’s a better race for us than the first time there,” Truex said. “We were off a little compared to how we’ve been there the past handful of years with the old car. I felt like we got it going pretty good in the race, so if we can just unload a little closer and be able to qualify better, that would help a lot. I feel like we’ve learned a lot as a company since that first race and our teammates tested there a while back, so I think we’ll certainly be better, but it’s going to be really tough to pass like we saw in the spring. Qualifying and pit road are both going to be very important; not that they aren’t always, but this week more so than normal.”

Kyle Larson (12/1) - He needs room to do his thing, lots of room. Martinsville and superspeedways aren’t his thing because everyone is so close and bunched together. In 15 Cup starts at Martinsville, he has two top-fives and 112 laps led for a 20th-place average finish. He’s a definite pass for me here.

Christopher Bell (14/1) - He doesn’t have anything special in five Cup starts at Martinsville, but I do see some similarities in this half-mile flat paperclip as the 1-mile flat paperclip at New Hampshire that he won at in July. He’s seventh in the playoffs with his only way in by winning. So you got that going for you with a bet on him.

“The spring race at Martinsville was very unique, because it was very hard to pass,” Bell said. “We qualified well and ran inside the top-10 until we had a pit road penalty bury us and we weren’t able to recover. We showed potential there and I think JGR as a whole has improved on their short track program. I’ve got all the faith in the world that we are going to bring another Camry capable of winning, and I have to go out there and see what we can do.”

READ MORE HERE...................TOP-5 FINISH PREDICTION ON VEGASINSIDER.COM

Darlington NASCAR Betting Preview: 2022 Cook Out Southern 500

It’s going to be a hot and humid Sunday night at Darlington Raceway’s high banked 1.366-mile egg-shaped oval. It’s time for the Cook Out Southern 500, one of the grandest traditions in NASCAR history running on Labor Day weekend almost every year since 1950. It’s 500 miles on The Lady in Black, and she’s angry all the time. But she’s been sweet to a few drivers over the years who understand her story and understand how to not wear out their tires too quickly.

It’s the perfect race to start the 2022 NASCAR Playoffs where 16 qualified drivers will be competing for the 2022 Championship. The Southern 500 begins the Round of 16 and four drivers will be eliminated after this three-race round. Win a race in this round and you move on to the next round regardless of points. After nine races and three stages, we’ll have the Championship 4 race at Phoenix on Nov. 3 and a Champion will be crowned.

I wrote earlier in the week about who I like to win it all.

COOK OUT SOUTHERN 500 PICKS & PREDICTIONS

Here’s a look at who I like this week using odds courtesy of BetMGM

Kyle Larson (6/1) - In nine Cup starts at Darlington he has an 8.9 average finish with five top-fives which includes three straight runner-ups before his 36th in the May race. He started second, led 30 laps, and the engine blew. The 2021 Champion likes the track a lot, but no wins.  The NextGen car has brought his party way down. Too much noise from 10 wins in 2021. Just two wins this season, each separated by a long gap. So why is he favored? Because it’s the playoffs and he gets his old car back? No. Because he’s due? No. It doesn’t matter because the sportsbooks all copied each other's lazy odds, likely using last fall’s odds grid, past experience on the track, and threw 2022 results out the window. I won’t be on Larson this week, but I’ve got a driver they fell asleep on with odds. 

"We had a really fast car last time before we had trouble,” Larson said of the May race. “The first round has a lot of really good tracks for us. Darlington, Kansas, and Bristol. Those are honestly three of my best racetracks. I really like that round and hopefully we can do well in it and get some wins and get some bonus points. I have always run really well at Darlington, but have not gotten a win there yet. I finished second three times in a row before this year, so would love to be one spot better there and finally get that Darlington win that I have been close to getting."

Denny Hamlin (7/1) - He’s still banged up from the late Daytona wreck and will not race in Saturday’s Xfinity Series race. He has five Xfinity Series wins at Darlington and a series-leading four wins at Darlington. He won last year's Cup race there. He leads all active drivers with a 7.8 average finish and also has 11 top-fives and 786 laps led. The Lady in Black and Hamlin are good friends and send each other Christmas cards. But the new car has taken away all the edges he’s experienced at his favorite tracks like Darlington and Martinsville. And he had to scheme with differing pit strategies to win at Richmond. We’ll look to bet him next week at Kansas, but he’s saying all the right things this week. 

(Getty)

“I feel really good about where our team is at. We have as much potential as anybody in the field if we can just put it all together,” Hamlin said. “Darlington is obviously a great place to get that started with our history there. It would be nice to go in there Saturday, qualifying up front and be able to maintain that throughout the night Sunday. That’s easier said than done, but Chris (Gabehart, crew chief) and everyone on our 11 team is doing everything they can right now, so I’m excited to see it play out.”

Read More Here.....Top-5 Finish prediction on VegasInsider.com

Road America NASCAR Betting Preview: 2022 Kwik Trip 250

Last season it was Hendrick Motorsports winning five of the seven road courses races on the NASCAR Cup schedule with Kyle Larson winning his first three road races and Chase Elliott winning his only two races of the season and it's why both are the favorites to win this week at Caesars sportsbooks.  Elliott is 9-to-2 to win Sunday’s Kwik Trip 250 at Road America and Larson is 5-to-1.

But neither of those road racers have won in the first two road races of 2022. It’s been Trackhouse Racing with Ross Chastain grabbing his first Cup win at COTA and also Daniel Suarez dominating at Sonoma for his first Cup win. That’s two first-time winners from the same team on tracks dominated by one organization the previous four years. 

What changed?

KWIK TRIP 250 PICKS & PREDICTIONS

The answer all rests with the new NextGen car which debuted this season. All those winning set-up notes that Chase Elliott and crew chief Alan Gustafson put together that aided him in winning seven of 14 road races from 2018-2021 are no good anymore with the new car. Imagine winning half the road races entered as Elliott did for four seasons. His next road course win will tie Tony Stewart for second-most in NASCAR history and his ninth win will tie all-time NASCAR leader Jeff Gordon with nine.

Kyle Larson winning his first three road courses last season was because of having fast cars but also a set-up secret revealed to his team by Elliott’s team. Larson was decent on road courses in the past and could run a fast single lap, but his road skills were no where close to Elliott’s until joining Hendrick. 

The NextGen car has flipped the table on just one elite team dominating. Trackhouse Racing found an edge on the road courses before the season and applied that edge to both cars. I don’t know what it is and they’re not sharing their secret, but two wins in two tries are almost as big of an edge as Hendrick had on the roads last season.

The NextGen has done its job of not making any team dominant. Parity was desired and that’s what we have aided by a tire that has a great chance of blowing up after 25 laps. In 17 races this season we’ve had 12 different winners with five drivers having two wins each. Elliott’s two wins this season have come on concrete tracks and Larson’s last win came in the second race of the season at Fontana. Elliott has gone winless in the last five road races.

It’s been a wild ride of parity which has made betting the races and winning tougher than ever but also offered several drivers the true possibility of winning weekly in the 25-to-1 or higher range. I like it when I win, but hate it when I lose directing my anger mostly at NASCAR’s new regime and agenda moving forward.

Road America is located in Elkhart, Wisconsin. (Getty)

KWIK TRIP 250 BETTING RESOURCES

• Date: Sunday, July 3, 2022
• Venue: Road America
• Location: Elkhart Lake, Wisconsin
• Distance: 250 miles
• Laps: 62
• Network-Time: USA - 3:00 p.m. ET
• Defending Champion: Chase Elliott

Let’s move on with Sunday’s race at Elkhart Lake, Wisconsin which is a massive 14-turn, 4.048-mile layout with unique corners while turning both left and right. It’s a fast track with lots of long straightaways and a bunch of braking also required around the turns. It’s a new track for the series. Chase Elliott won last season, his last road course win, following the 1956 race won by NASCAR Hall of Famer Tim Flock. 

Yes, that’s quite a gap between races, but now we're starting a new Fourth of July tradition and it sure looks like the crowd is having a blast in multiple areas of this track. We can still call this race the Firecracker, right?

After two road races, there is a lot of data for the teams to review to prep themselves for this week, things they did wrong, errors they made, wrong assumptions based on the old cars, and just being slower than others. The team I’ll pay attention to the most this week is Joe Gibbs Racing because they didn’t learn anything at COTA in March with all their drivers struggling at Sonoma last month. Saturday’s practice and qualifying should give a glimpse of their road racing progress.

But my first thought about Sunday’s race was why would I fool around with guesswork on road racing progress when I already know Ross Chastain and Daniel Suarez has things figured out already. No guesswork is needed. 

READ MORE HERE....TOP-5 FINISH PREDICTION ON VEGASINSIDER.COM