Showing posts with label southern 500. Show all posts
Showing posts with label southern 500. Show all posts

Tuesday, August 29, 2023

Kevin Harvick is 16/1 to win his last Darlington race

 

KEVIN HARVICK

Darlington Advance

No. 4 Mobil 1/Take 5 Ford Mustang for Stewart-Haas Racing

 

 

Event Overview

 

●  Event:  Cook Out Southern 500 (Round 27 of 36)

●  Time/Date:  6 p.m. EDT on Sunday, Sept. 3

●  Location:  Darlington (S.C.) Raceway

●  Layout:  1.366-mile oval

●  Laps/Miles:  367 laps/501.32 miles

●  Stage Lengths:  Stage 1: 115 laps / Stage 2: 115 laps / Final Stage: 137 laps

●  TV/Radio:  USA / MRN / SiriusXM NASCAR Radio

 

Notes of Interest

 

●  The NASCAR Playoffs begin Sunday with the Cook Out Southern 500 at Darlington (S.C.) Raceway, and for the 17th time since the advent of the playoffs in 2004, Harvick is a part of it. Harvick qualified for this year’s playoffs on points, as he had an insurmountable 135-point margin over the playoff cutline ahead of the regular-season finale last Saturday night at Daytona (Fla.) International Speedway. In his 10-year tenure at Stewart-Haas Racing (SHR), Harvick won the championship in 2014, scored a runner-up finish in the 2015 standings, earned third-place efforts in 2017, 2018 and 2019, and won the regular-season title in 2020.

 

●  Darlington is one of the 10 tracks that make up the NASCAR Playoffs, and of Harvick’s 60 career NASCAR Cup Series victories, 26 have come at playoff tracks. Three of those wins have been at Darlington, while Harvick also has three wins apiece at Kansas Speedway in Kansas City, Bristol (Tenn.) Motor Speedway and Texas Motor Speedway in Fort Worth. He has two wins at Las Vegas Motor Speedway and one win each at Talladega (Ala.) Superspeedway, Homestead-Miami Speedway and Martinsville (Va.) Speedway. The remaining nine wins were earned at the most valuable playoff venue – Phoenix Raceway, home to the championship-deciding race. The only track where Harvick doesn’t have a win is the Charlotte (N.C.) Motor Speedway Roval.

 

●  Darlington is known as “The Track Too Tough To Tame,” but Harvick has tamed the venerable 1.366-mile oval three times, the second-most of any active NASCAR Cup Series driver. The 47-year-old racer from Bakersfield, California, owns two Southern 500 victories (2014 and 2020) and one win in the track’s 400-mile race.

 

●  For a decade, Harvick has been a model of front-running consistency at Darlington. In the last 15 races at the track, he has finished among the top-five 12 times and outside of the top-10 only once. And in his last Darlington start in May, Harvick finished second. It was his eighth top-three finish at Darlington and his best result so far this season.

 

●  The 2023 season marks Darlington’s 73rd anniversary, with the egg-shaped oval having hosted 124 NASCAR Cup Series races. The first came on Sept. 4, 1950, and it was the first 500-mile race in NASCAR history and the first on asphalt. Johnny Mantz drove his Plymouth to the win with an average speed of 75.250 mph and the race took 6 hours, 38 minutes and 40 seconds to complete. Juxtapose that with Harvick’s win in the 2020 Southern 500. His Ford Mustang logged an average speed of 132.256 mph and the race finished in 3 hours, 47 minutes and 26 seconds.

 

●  COVID-19 stopped racing in its tracks in 2020. After the checkered flag dropped March 8 at Phoenix Raceway, NASCAR went on a 10-week hiatus as the world grappled with the scale of a pandemic not seen since the Spanish Flu of 1918-1919. NASCAR had to navigate a brave new world, and the sport was one of the first to return to action when racing resumed May 17 at Darlington. It was a welcome surprise, as one version of NASCAR’s hypothetical return featured a start date of Oct. 25 at Indianapolis Motor Speedway with a stretch of 30 races in 64 days that would wrap with three straight races at Phoenix… on Jan. 1-3 of 2021. In a time of great uncertainty, seeing sports’ return with NASCAR pacing the field proved both prideful and poignant. Harvick never let off the gas even as the season ground to a halt. He focused on all the little details that go into wheeling a 3,400-pound racecar around tracks faster than 39 of his competitors. The result? After finishing second March 8 at Phoenix, Harvick one-upped that result by winning in NASCAR’s return to racing May 17 at Darlington.

 

●  That win on May 17, 2020, at Darlington was Harvick’s milestone 50th career NASCAR Cup Series victory. Harvick led 159 of the race’s 293 laps to secure his 11th straight season as a Cup Series winner. His career win total now stands at 60, which puts him 10th on the Cup Series’ all-time win list.

 

●  Among active NASCAR Cup Series drivers, Harvick leads the following categories at Darlington:

    ●  Most starts: 31 (next best is Kyle Busch with 23)

    ​●  Most top-fives: 14 (next best is Denny Hamlin with 12)

    ​●  Most top-10s: 19 (next best is Hamlin with 16)

    ​●  Most laps led: 818 (next best is Hamlin with 801)

    ​●  Most laps completed: 10,232 (next best is Hamlin with 7,620)

    ​●  Note: Hamlin leads the series in wins at Darlington with four, while Harvick stands alone with three wins.

 

●  Who are the all-time leaders at Darlington? Check out these eye-popping statistics:

    ​●  Most starts: 65 by Richard Petty

    ​●  Most wins: 10 by David Pearson  

    ​●  Most top-fives: 25 by Petty

    ​●  Most top-10s: 34 by Petty

    ​●  Most laps led: 2,391 by Petty

    ​●  Most laps completed: 17,120 by Petty

    ​●  Note: The 17,120 laps completed by Petty translates to 23,434.11 miles, almost equal to the equatorial circumference of the Earth (24,901 miles).

 

●  Harvick has proven immensely consistent at Darlington outside of the NASCAR Cup Series. He has made 16 NASCAR Xfinity Series starts at Darlington, finishing among the top-10 nine times with a best result of third in September 2017. Harvick has also made two NASCAR Truck Series starts at Darlington with a best result of fourth in March 2002.

 

●  Mobil 1 has partnered with Take 5 Oil Change®, the quick-lube service that features a unique drive-thru concept that allows customers to never leave the comfort of their car. Mobil 1 is coming soon to Take 5 locations nationwide, and the expanded availability of Mobil 1’s range of products is being highlighted on Harvick’s No. 4 Mobil 1/Take 5 Ford Mustang during the Cook Out Southern 500 at Darlington.

 

●  The Mobil 1 branding on Harvick’s No. 4 Ford Mustang goes more than skin deep as the world’s leading synthetic motor oil brand gives Harvick an added advantage. Mobil 1 products are used throughout his racecar and they extend beyond just engine oil. Power steering fluid, transmission fluid, gear oil and driveline lubricants from Mobil 1 give Harvick a technical advantage over his counterparts by reducing friction, heat and rolling resistance. Mobil 1 is a sponsor whose technology makes Harvick’s No. 4 Mobil 1 Ford Mustang faster.

 

Kevin Harvick, Driver of the No. 4 Mobil 1/Take 5 Ford Mustang 

 

Ten races in the playoffs. Ten races left in your final season as a NASCAR Cup Series driver. What’s important at this stage in your career compared to when you first came into the Cup Series more than 20 years ago?

“I worry less about what I want to accomplish and just try to accomplish what I need to accomplish, and that is to engage with my team on a week-to-week basis to get the most out of our cars, and the responsibility that comes with being prepared and being a part of that process on a week-to-week basis. You want to do everything you can to try and take as much as you can out of every single week that you’re at the racetrack because, eventually, there won’t be a next week. It’ll be what you used to do, and you want to give it your all while you can.”

 

How do you balance the sentiment of these send-offs you’re getting at these tracks while still pursuing a championship?

“For me, when you look around and you see the 4EVER signs and you see the different things that each particular racetrack has done, you listen to the fans and you really get a great idea of just how important coming back and doing this last year and putting the 4EVER logo around it and going to each track and letting them do what they want to do and be a part of it all – that’s important. I may have thought it was silly when we started, and I think as you look back at it and I listened to those conversations with our group at SHR and the way that Tony Stewart did his and the way that he thought he should have done some things, those things are fun. It’s been fun, just because of the fact I don’t have to worry about what people think. You could just listen and realize that you’ve had a great impact on the sport and the fans appreciate the effort and the things that have gone into it, whether it be driving or off the track or showing the emotion of being mad or whatever the instance is – to hear all those stories and let people tell you about all those different situations and see the different pictures and things at the racetrack from all the success at certain tracks. For me, that’s not something I would ever do because I look at it as bragging, but at this particular point, it is what it is, right? It’s success at different places – we’ve been very fortunate to be successful and win races and have an impact. Being able to wrap my arms around all that and say, ‘OK, I’m good with this. Let’s enjoy it.’ It’s been enjoyable just because of the fact that some of the things and pictures and different things that I’ve seen, I forgot that we actually did – different moments or stuff that fans bring up or whatever the instance is, it’s been fun to be a part of it all and go back and think about all those things that were a part of that particular moment, so it’s been good. Marcus Smith (president and CEO of Speedway Motorsports) was a huge part of saying, ‘You’ve got to come back and do this this way for the tracks and for the fans and for the sport.’ I was like, ‘Oh, man. I don’t know.’ Now that we’ve gone through this part of the season and been through all the things that we’ve been through, it's been a lot of fun to go back and reflect on so many things.”

 

This is your 17th year in the NASCAR Playoffs and it’s your 14th straight season of being a part of the playoffs. Do you have to find another gear to perform in the playoffs?

“When the Jimmie Johnson and Chad Knaus era was in full swing and they were both still together back in 2015, we had to make some decisions on how we wanted to race. We wanted to race like them, and that was championship mode every week so that you didn’t have to figure out how to do something different when you got to the playoffs and try to put on this new face or this new mindset, or we’re going to do this differently or that differently. You’ve got to have that figured out before you get there and rely on the ability of things that you’ve done in the past to just continue to be able to do that going forward, and hopefully the cars are better and you can rely on that extra speed as you go into the playoffs. We try to do the same things week after week. Rodney (Childers, crew chief) doesn’t have a demeanor change whether the sky is falling or if it’s cold or hot outside or fast or slow, he’s pretty much the same guy. That helps us all because he’s so even-keeled about everything that he does.”

 

The NASCAR Cup Series championship is decided in a 10-race elimination format where, in the season finale, four drivers compete in a winner-take-all title match. What are your thoughts on the way the championship is decided?

“Well, you don’t win them like Earnhardt did. I think as you look at what we do, it’s different. We’re definitely in the entertainment business to make things exciting, and as you look at the last race, there’s a lot that goes into it, but it definitely doesn’t reflect the whole year. I think our years are definitely proof of that just because of the fact in ’14 we won the right race. In ’15, we didn’t win the right race. In ’20, we didn’t win the right race. I guess as long as you’re in it enough, it cycles out and circles back, so I could see it both ways. I’m going to sit on the other side of the fence and want it exciting, but I think from a competitor’s standpoint – and I’ve raced it both ways – I think it’s a long season and there’s a lot to it to come down to one race.”

 

Do you like Darlington serving as the opening race of the 10-race playoffs?

“Well, Darlington just screams NASCAR. From a competitor’s standpoint, when you drive through the tunnel and you look at that racetrack, it looks the same as it did in 1960. From my standpoint, being able to race at a racetrack like that, whatever generation car I’m in, you can relate back to how it started. Darlington is narrow, it’s unique, and it’s just Darlington. You pull in the tunnel and you see the blue tarps and the tents and the people just hanging out in the infield – it’s just a great place to race and forever a part of NASCAR history that I will always enjoy.”

 

What stands out for you the most at Darlington?

“I know the characteristics of the racetrack, as far as having to respect it and racing the track. I know what that means, and I’ve definitely been in the wrong position and got carried away and had it bite me before. But it’s a place that I look forward to going to. It’s a place where I enjoy racing and love the challenges that go with it. I think over the last several years we’ve been fortunate to have some success there, and the expectation is to go there and have a chance to race up front and put yourself in contention. So that’ll be the expectation as we go back this time and, hopefully, we can do that and have some fun.”

 

Five hundred miles at Darlington, during the heat and humidity of Labor Day weekend, makes for a very demanding race. How do you approach it?

“No matter how hot it is, it’s just a mentally taxing race. It’s just you against the track and being able to have that mindset and know that every lap you have to be up on top of the wheel in order to keep yourself from rubbing up against the wall or doing something that’s detrimental to your car, but also pushing the car hard enough and keeping up with the tire fall-off and understanding all the things that are going on. There are just a lot of moving pieces at Darlington, but it’s really taxing, mentally.”

 

What skillsets are rewarded at Darlington?

“Darlington favors the guy who can be very disciplined and is able to push the car right to 99.9 percent of where that tire run is, and be able to put the car up against the wall and not overstep those boundaries. You have to be very disciplined there to get everything out of the car and keep up with the tire fall-off and not tear anything up – on your own, let alone being around everybody else.”

 

Is competing at Darlington about racing the track and your competitors, or is it more about managing your tires?

“You’ve got to know when to let somebody go, because you can make it a lot harder on somebody to pass than what it used to be with the things that go on aerodynamically with this particular car. The biggest thing that you have to do is get the restarts right and get yourself really singled out, and once you get singled out, then you can start making some different decisions on when to let somebody go, when to not let somebody go, how hard to fight somebody, and things like that. It just takes one moment there to slip up and the right-rear toe link will be knocked off the car. You can rub the car up against the wall, but if you clip that right-rear tire wrong, it’s going to be the end of your night.”

 

Running that line up against the wall is not the line you typically run. The “Kevin Harvick Line” is along the bottom. Which line is most advantageous, and when?

“With this particular car, you’ve just got to be careful with how much you abuse the tires because it drives off the right-rear tire so much that you have to think about that a little bit differently. It didn’t seem like that was 100 percent the preferred way to do it through (turns) three and four the last time. You’ve just got to be as easy as possible on the right-rear tire.”

 

How do you maximize your results every week to where you get the most out of your car, no matter what circumstances you’re facing?

“You have to keep the car rolling, and you have to be able to just grind away and make your car better throughout the day and stay in the game and be able to reset as a group to hope that every time you pit, and when things aren’t going right that the car is going to get better. I tell a lot of our young drivers this: They say, ‘Well, my car’s not good,’ and I’ll say, ‘Well, why? You’re a big part of that process.’ The driver is a big part of the process that really helps keep everything under control as far as the direction of the car. Is it tight for aero reasons, mechanical reasons and understanding how to push things forward to do that? For us, we just grind away and keep ourselves in contention and do as many little things right as possible, and I think that feedback between the driver and crew chief goes right back to that same conversation of making yourself useful as an asset inside the car to be able to give the information of what’s wrong with the car. Grinding away and just always believing that it’s going to get better after this adjustment and resetting and going again, that’s what you’ve got to do.”

 

Thursday, September 1, 2022

Darlington NASCAR Betting Preview: 2022 Cook Out Southern 500

It’s going to be a hot and humid Sunday night at Darlington Raceway’s high banked 1.366-mile egg-shaped oval. It’s time for the Cook Out Southern 500, one of the grandest traditions in NASCAR history running on Labor Day weekend almost every year since 1950. It’s 500 miles on The Lady in Black, and she’s angry all the time. But she’s been sweet to a few drivers over the years who understand her story and understand how to not wear out their tires too quickly.

It’s the perfect race to start the 2022 NASCAR Playoffs where 16 qualified drivers will be competing for the 2022 Championship. The Southern 500 begins the Round of 16 and four drivers will be eliminated after this three-race round. Win a race in this round and you move on to the next round regardless of points. After nine races and three stages, we’ll have the Championship 4 race at Phoenix on Nov. 3 and a Champion will be crowned.

I wrote earlier in the week about who I like to win it all.

COOK OUT SOUTHERN 500 PICKS & PREDICTIONS

Here’s a look at who I like this week using odds courtesy of BetMGM

Kyle Larson (6/1) - In nine Cup starts at Darlington he has an 8.9 average finish with five top-fives which includes three straight runner-ups before his 36th in the May race. He started second, led 30 laps, and the engine blew. The 2021 Champion likes the track a lot, but no wins.  The NextGen car has brought his party way down. Too much noise from 10 wins in 2021. Just two wins this season, each separated by a long gap. So why is he favored? Because it’s the playoffs and he gets his old car back? No. Because he’s due? No. It doesn’t matter because the sportsbooks all copied each other's lazy odds, likely using last fall’s odds grid, past experience on the track, and threw 2022 results out the window. I won’t be on Larson this week, but I’ve got a driver they fell asleep on with odds. 

"We had a really fast car last time before we had trouble,” Larson said of the May race. “The first round has a lot of really good tracks for us. Darlington, Kansas, and Bristol. Those are honestly three of my best racetracks. I really like that round and hopefully we can do well in it and get some wins and get some bonus points. I have always run really well at Darlington, but have not gotten a win there yet. I finished second three times in a row before this year, so would love to be one spot better there and finally get that Darlington win that I have been close to getting."

Denny Hamlin (7/1) - He’s still banged up from the late Daytona wreck and will not race in Saturday’s Xfinity Series race. He has five Xfinity Series wins at Darlington and a series-leading four wins at Darlington. He won last year's Cup race there. He leads all active drivers with a 7.8 average finish and also has 11 top-fives and 786 laps led. The Lady in Black and Hamlin are good friends and send each other Christmas cards. But the new car has taken away all the edges he’s experienced at his favorite tracks like Darlington and Martinsville. And he had to scheme with differing pit strategies to win at Richmond. We’ll look to bet him next week at Kansas, but he’s saying all the right things this week. 

(Getty)

“I feel really good about where our team is at. We have as much potential as anybody in the field if we can just put it all together,” Hamlin said. “Darlington is obviously a great place to get that started with our history there. It would be nice to go in there Saturday, qualifying up front and be able to maintain that throughout the night Sunday. That’s easier said than done, but Chris (Gabehart, crew chief) and everyone on our 11 team is doing everything they can right now, so I’m excited to see it play out.”

Read More Here.....Top-5 Finish prediction on VegasInsider.com

Tuesday, September 1, 2020

Clint Bowyer is 50/1 to win 2020 Southern 500 at Darlington

CLINT BOWYER
NASCAR Playoffs: The Pay Window is Open

KANNAPOLIS, North Carolina (Sept. 1, 2020) – As Clint Bowyer is fond of saying, the pay window in the NASCAR Cup Series is now officially open with the start of its 10-race, 16-driver playoffs Sunday night at historic Darlington (S.C.) Raceway during the 71st annual Southern 500.

“Now is the time to make your money,” Bowyer said when asked about Darlington’s first-ever playoff race.

“This is when it all starts in our sport. As a driver, no matter what’s happened up until now in 2020, and good lord there has been so much going on both on and off the track, the thing you are going to remember about this season, competition-wise, is what happens beginning Sunday and goes until we race in Phoenix in 10 weeks.”

Bowyer arrives at Darlington carrying a special PEAK Antifreeze Throwback paint scheme on his No. 14 Stewart-Haas Racing (SHR) Ford Mustang. Bowyer’s paint scheme will celebrate PEAK’s first NASCAR victory when Kyle Petty and crew chief Gary Nelson dominated the 1990 race at Rockingham (N.C.) Speedway. Petty led 433 of 492 laps on his way to victory in one of the more memorable races in the sport’s history.

“Ol’ Kyle had it going on that day,” Bowyer said with a laugh, adding that he joined Petty and Nelson earlier this summer to watch a replay of the race. “He put a whuppin’ on them. I’d love to do something like that in Darlington this weekend. I love watching those old races, and it was fun to hear Kyle and Gary talk about it. Kyle will be part of the NBC television coverage this weekend, so we want to make him proud.”

Sunday night’s race will mark Bowyer’s fifth of six primary partner races planned for Old World Industries, the parent company of the PEAK Coolant & Antifreeze and BlueDEF® brands. The company’s legacy in motorsports spans 40 years and includes leading drivers such as Dale Earnhardt, Michael Waltrip and Petty. Besides Bowyer’s No. 14 team, PEAK is a partner with the Haas F1 team with drivers Romain Grosjean and Kevin Magnussen, the NASCAR PEAK Mexico Series and drag racing’s winningest driver John Force.

This weekend’s scheme is in keeping with “The Official Throwback Weekend of NASCAR,” during which the industry honors the sport’s history. Nearly all the Cup Series teams will sport throwback paint schemes in the Southern 500.

Last year, Bowyer’s Ford carried a nearly identical paint scheme to his car owner and 2020 NASCAR Hall of Fame inductee Tony Stewart’s 2011 championship-winning car at SHR. Bowyer has also raced throwback paint schemes honoring Mark Martin and Ned Jarrett at Darlington during his SHR tenure.

As part of the Darlington weekend, PEAK will donate up to $5,000 to Petty’s Victory Junction Camp that enriches the lives of children with serious illnesses by providing life-changing camping experiences at no cost to children or their families. Beginning Tuesday, PEAK will donate $1 to the 84-acre Victory Junction camp in Randleman, North Carolina, for each of the first 5,000 new followers added to the PEAK Twitter page @PeakAuto

“This is one of the best weekends of the year,” Bowyer said. “You get to see so much of this sport’s history come alive. You see the old paint scheme, the old style hats. The sponsors like PEAK really get into it and make it special. Now with this year being the first time the playoffs start in Darlington, it will be extra special.”

Bowyer begins the playoffs 13th in the reset standings with 2,004 points thanks to a 19th-place finish last Saturday night at Daytona (Fla.) International Speedway. Bowyer battled for the victory on the final lap before contact sent him into the wall, leaving him with a 19th-place finish. Despite the disappointing result at Daytona, the recent run of solid results continued for Bowyer, who has scored the sixth-most points of any driver in the last six races.

Sunday marks Bowyer’s ninth career playoff appearance, as well as third consecutive appearance with SHR. To advance to Round 2 of the playoffs, Bowyer needs to remain in the top-12 in points through Round 1. That makes running well Sunday at Darlington, Sept. 12 at Richmond (Va.) Raceway, and Sept. 19 at Bristol (Tenn.) Motor Speedway imperative to a chance for the title.

“I’ve always thought the first round is the toughest,” he said. “You have to be ready to go right out of the box. You can’t have any mistakes. You sure as heck can’t afford to get behind.”

Bowyer might not have had the regular season he wanted in terms of victories, but it wasn’t a bad year. He earned two top-five finishes and seven top-10s in 26 regular-season races. He earned the 10th-most bonus points of any driver. But the regular season is over and he is ready for the playoffs.  

He’ll join a four-Mustang contingent of SHR drivers in the playoffs as he joins teammates Kevin Harvick, Aric Almirola and Cole Custer. SHR is the only organization to place four cars in the playoffs. Then-SHR driver Daniel Suarez fell just four points shy of earning a playoff berth in 2019. It would have marked the third consecutive year SHR placed all four of its drivers in the playoffs.

Darlington hasn’t always been kind to Bowyer over the years, where he has two top-10 finishes and a pole in 16 starts. But, the 41 year-old Emporia, Kansas native flashed real speed in the two 400-mile Darlington races held in a three-day period earlier this year when NASCAR returned from a 10-week hiatus due to the onset of the coronavirus pandemic in March.

On Sunday May 17, Bowyer finished fifth in the second stage and appeared ready to battle for a top-five finish but a loose car dropped him back in the field, leaving him with a 17th-place finish. On Wednesday May 20, Bowyer won the first two stages and led 71 laps in a dominating first half of the night race. An untimely caution dropped him off the lead lap in the final stage and contact with the wall and a cut tire left him with a 22nd-place finish.

Showing that speed again on Sunday should make Bowyer one of the favorites in a race that will be held in front of 8,000 to 10,000 fans in the 47,000-seat facility, nicknamed the “Track Too Tough To Tame,” received state approval earlier this month. All fans are required to wear face coverings or masks and temperature checks will be given while entering.

Bowyer knows he has some big shoes to fill Sunday if his Mustang is to duplicate Petty’s PEAK performance 30 years ago at Rockingham, but he also knows the stakes have never been higher with Darlington as the playoff opener during one of the sport’s biggest weekends of the season



CLINT BOWYER, Driver of the No. 14 PEAK Antifreeze Throwback Ford Mustang for Stewart-Haas Racing:

What is your strategy Sunday?
“That’s easy – our strategy is to win, simple as that. What a great time it would be for a win! We did that in 2010, won the first race in the playoffs. It’s a great way to set the tone for the whole playoff run. We ran really well the last time we were in Darlington, plus these first tracks coming up are in my wheelhouse. We feel very confident.”

What are your thoughts on Darlington?
“I like the uniqueness of the track. I’ve struggled to have good finishes there but we’ve always raced well. We just can’t seem to seal the deal at the end. Something always goes haywire in the end but, sooner or later, we are going to overcome that and have a good weekend. Doing that this weekend would be perfect.”

What do you think of the older cars racing at Darlington?
“I always thought it would be neat, if you could, to be able to put those cars back on the track and have us be able to race them – or even today’s technology, just make the rules mandate those old cars and see. The crazy thing is, you can’t unlearn the evolution of racing and everything that we’ve learned over the years. These engineers and guys, they could make those guys so much faster than they were back then, but it’s not fair. It’s not fair to the guys back then. They didn’t have the tools and simulation and all the things they have today, so I can tell you it’s because of those cars that racing is where it is. Those guys taught these kids and these guys who are building chassis and making these cars go fast today learned from those guys, and they learn pretty fast. But it would be cool to be able to go back and put those old jalopies back on the track and see what would happen.”

Friday, May 11, 2012

NASCAR Betting: Analyzing The Bojangles' Southern 500 Driver Matchups

By Frederic Crespi

With both practices in the books and only qualifying yet to go, let’s get to handicapping the matchups that the folks at Don Best (http://www.donbest.com/) have loaded for this Saturday Night’s Bojangles’ Southern 500 at the famed Darlington Raceway.

Although Regan Smith shocked the NASCAR world last year with arguably the most improbable victory since Derrike Cope in the 1990 Daytona 500, Darlington Raceway, with its unique shape and very tight racing grooves, is a true “drivers” track. The cream usually rises to the top and the matchup prices will reflect this much more so than usual.

NOTE: All driver averages and driver ratings mentioned will refer to only the LAST 7 races run at Darlington, or since NASCAR went to one race per season (2005).

NOTE #2: I will update prices if need be based upon qualifying results later this afternoon.

As usual, I will quote my prices on these matchups based upon a 30 cent line (-150 favorite = +120 underdog).

#48 Jimmie Johnson vs. #16 Greg Biffle: Looking at Darlington numbers and season numbers through the first ten races, this is a very close matchup. Johnson holds the edge in terms of average finish (11.4 vs. 14) but “The Biff” has the edge in driver rating with a 109.7 to 100.6.  The 2012 season is also very close, but Biffle has been too much of a top 5 machine not to make him a favorite in this battle.  Biffle -145 in this one.

No driver has been better recently at Darlington (Getty)
 
#16 Greg Biffle vs. #24 Jeff Gordon: “The Lady in Black” sure seems more like the “Lady in Teal” to Jeff Gordon and his Dupont team. Absolute domination at a track this difficult to handle is simply amazing.  Outside of last year’s 12th place finish, Gordon had amassed six straight top 5’s to the tune of an overall average of 4.14.  His driver rating of 116.7 is also very stout, but looking at 2012 results, it is still very difficult to make Gordon the favorite he deserves to be at Darlington. Biffle has just dominated statistically so far this year and is a perfect 10-0 vs. Gordon in head to head matchups so far.  Let’s knock Biffle a little lower than his price over Johnson based on Gordon’s Darlington dominance.  Biffle -140 in this one.
#24 Jeff Gordon vs. #18 Kyle Busch: Outside of three top 10’s including a win in 2008, the “Lady in Black” has not been very kind to Kyle Busch to the tune of an average finish of 17.1. Without Kyle’s current run of three straight top 10’s this year, Gordon would be at least a favorite of -150, but let’s give Kyle and his momentum some love and install the Dupont team at -140 in this one.
#18 Kyle Busch vs. #99 Carl Edwards:  This should be a very competitive matchup based upon both Darlington history and 2012 performance.  Edwards came in 2nd last year and also 2nd behind Kyle in 2008, and so far this year, Kyle has an average finish of 14 vs. Edwards’ 14.3 with very close driver ratings as well.  I like the way this No. 18 team has been running lately, so let’s install him as a slight -120 favorite in this one.  This could easily be Edwards -120 to -125 though.

#99 Carl Edwards vs. #14 Tony Stewart: “Smoke” has a slightly better overall performance at Darlington and also through the first 10 races of 2012 than Edwards.  However, outside of a 39th and 32nd place finish in the last seven, Edwards would easily have the edge at Darlington.  Stewart can be spectacular for sure, but this will be Edwards’ matchup to win.  Edwards should be installed as a favorite of -140 in this one.

#14 Tony Stewart vs. #17 Matt Kenseth:  Once again, both these drivers are very close in terms of Darlington performance, but Kenseth has been much more consistent so far in 2012. Edwards has been better than Kenseth in terms of Darlington driver rating (92.4 to 85.1), so let’s go a little lower than the previous matchup with Kenseth at -130 in this one.

#17 Matt Kenseth vs. #29 Kevin Harvick:  Even though Harvick has only one top 10 finish at Darlington in the last seven years, he is only behind Kenseth by 0.8 in driver rating. Kenseth does have the edge in 2012 performance both in average finish and driver rating, so he has to come as the favorite, and basically what he should be against Stewart, as both Stewart and Harvick are pretty dead even.  Kenseth -140 in this one.

#29 Kevin Harvick vs. #11 Denny Hamlin:  Based upon Darlington performance, Hamlin would be -180 in this matchup. His average finish of 6.5 and driver rating of 108.3 dwarf the 29 car’s numbers of 20.1 and 84.3.  This season’s results are much closer but with Hamlin holding a slight edge nonetheless.  Hamlin has been just too good at Darlington, so let’s go with the No. 11 car at -155 in this one.

#11 Denny Hamlin vs. #2 Brad Keselowski:  Yeah, okay, Keselowski has the third best average finish of 7.3 at Darlington (albeit with only three races run), but looking into his 3rd place finish last year, he did not have that good a car as evidenced by his 88.5 driver rating. Hamlin came home 6th with a rating of 104.6 and also holds the edge so far in 2012 performance. Hopefully, based upon that sexy average Darlington finish and last week’s win, the number comes a lot shorter than it should, but Hamlin should start no less than -175 in this matchup.

#2 Brad Keselowski vs. #5 Kasey Kahne:  The old Red Bull Racing boys sure as fire brought one hell of a piece for Kahne last year at Darlington.  Even though he finished a disappointing 4th, he spent each and every lap in the top 15, led the most laps, and killed it with a 135.2 rating. However, that performance sure was an aberration to that point with no Darlington finish higher than 20th the previous five years. This 2012 Hendrick team has finally turned things around (at least in terms of solid races finishes) with four straight top 10’s and they sure know how to qualify up front as well.  BK and his Miller Lite Dodge have the edge on both track and season performance, but this 5 car is coming on for sure. Keselowski as a small -125 favorite in this one.
 
#5 Kasey Kahne vs. 88 Dale Earnhardt, Jr.:  Who doesn’t love the crowd reaction at Talladega when Dale Jr. leads the field in 1st? It looks like they all collectively got the news that they won the lottery or something.  No way anyone can argue how solid this 88 team has been so far this year, as they head to Darlington with six straight top 10’s and a solid track history as well.  Based upon track and season numbers, this should be a Junior steamroll over his teammate for sure, but these two are drivers are 2-2 vs. each other the last four races. Dale Jr. and his team are dialed in for sure, but the 5 team has it going as well, so let’s go with Junior as a favorite of -145 in this one.

#88 Dale Earnhardt, Jr. vs. #56 Martin Truex, Jr.:  Both on track and season long performance, these two drivers are basically bump drafting each other the whole way. Dale comes into Darlington with a 12.0 average finish compared to Martin’s 12.3 with just as close of a driver rating. Junior has gained a bigger edge in season average finish largely due to the 56 car’s most recent 25th and 28th place finishes.  This is as close as it gets in my opinion but with more recent consistency, Junior should be -130 in this matchup. 

#56 Martin Truex, Jr. vs. #55 Mark Martin:  These two Michael Waltrip teammates are also very statistically close both in terms of track and 2012 season.  However, with Martin being the only active driver to start each and every Darlington race, we know he brings that “sperience” factor with him.  Just kidding around Mr. “Epic Swag!” This matchup is a complete toss-up to me, but let’s give the 56 car the small edge as a favorite of -125 in this one. 

Great chance at odds of 20-1 or higher (Getty)
#55 Mark Martin vs. #39 Ryan Newman:  Not by very much, but Mark Martin holds a slight advantage in season performance, but remember that Martin gave way to Brian Vickers for two races and Michael Waltrip for one.  Where this matchup separates itself is in Darlington performance even though both their average finishes are very close, with 39 holding a slim 10.0 to 11.1 over the 55. However, Newman has six top 10’s and four top 5’s at Darlington over that same seven race time span giving him the edge here.  Newman is a sneaky 20-1 or higher possible race winner as well.  Let’s go with “Rocket Ryan” -145 in this one.

#39 Ryan Newman vs. #15 Clint Bowyer:  This is basically a dead even matchup based upon season performance, but taking a look at Darlington performance, you would have to think there is not enough 5-Hour Energy in the world that could make Bowyer beat Ryan Newman this Saturday night (unless there is the old 5-Hour Energy in Newman’s gas tank trick…basically a 21st century version of the banana in the tail pipe).  Ryan Newman at -180 in this matchup.

#15 Clint Bowyer vs. #51 Kurt Busch:  Now this is a much more competitive matchup on paper for sure.  Kurt has an average of 18.0 with a rating of 78.8 vs. Bowyer’s 24.5 and 73.6 rating. Both are racing for new teams this year but Bowyer surely has the advantage with MWR three car operation over the single car team of James Finch and Kurt Busch.  We know Kurt can wheel around Darlington for sure (greatest finish ever??) but this team is simply at a disadvantage.  Bowyer at -140 in this matchup.

#51 Kurt Busch vs. #1 Jamie McMurray:  This appears to be slightly closer than the previous matchup, but McMurray and his team have fared very well at Darlington over the last two years with finishes of 9th and 2nd and an overall average of 15.43 (includes a 42nd). Add that to four straight top 15 runs this season, and McMurray has to be installed as a favorite of -150 in this one. I doubt this 1 car will get this type of love though…which would be good for a solid wagering opportunity.

#1 Jamie McMurray vs. #31 Jeff Burton:  This is as dead even as it gets for a Darlington matchup as both are right on the heels of each other in both track and season performance.  Without a crazy price attached to either of these drivers, you gotta have a serious need for action betting this one.  Each driver at -115 in this one.

#48 Jimmie Johnson vs. #18 Kyle Busch:  This matchup price looks to be a little less than the one vs. Jeff Gordon.  While Johnson holds a solid 11.4 to 17.1 average Darlington finish edge, they are much closer in terms of driver rating with Johnson only holding a 1.0 advantage.  Johnson -130 in this one.

#56 Martin Truex, Jr. vs. #1 Jamie McMurray:  This matchup is not as much of a slam dunk as it looks, although based upon 2012, it sure does look like a “Chocolate Thunder” special could be in store for McMurray. But as mentioned, Jamie Mac has been very solid at taming Darlington recently, so let’s go with the 56 as a favorite of -140 in this one. (Dating myself a little with the Darryl Dawkins reference?)

#99 Carl Edwards vs. #2 Brad Keselowski:  Even though BK has the edge in average finish at Darlington, Edwards simply has more track time and has been very close to bringing home the hardware here.  This seems to me as a very similar price of Edwards vs. Stewart, so let’s go with Edwards -145 in this one.

#48 Jimmie Johnson vs. #14 Tony Stewart:  This one doesn’t get any closer if track and season numbers are any indication at all.  Average Darlington finish of 11.4 to 11.7 in favor of Johnson, and average season finish all tied up at 12.5 apiece. The Lowe’s Chevy does hold a decent driver rating edge at Darlington, so let’s give Johnson the edge to the tune of -135 in this matchup.

#29 Kevin Harvick vs. #88 Dale Earnhardt, Jr.: Dale Jr. and his 88 team look to have a decided edge in this matchup in all track and season long statistical categories, so let’s go with Dale Jr. as a -150 favorite.

#17 Matt Kenseth vs. #5 Kasey Kahne:  Even with a three position advantage in average finish for Kenseth at Darlington, Kahne has a solid 11.6 better average driver rating. That however is largely based upon last year’s dominating performance by Kahne.  Kenseth in the -140 to -150 range in this matchup.

#18 Kyle Busch vs. #14 Tony Stewart:  This is pretty much the same matchup as Edwards over Stewart in my opinion, only slightly less, so let’s go with Kyle Busch as a favorite of -130 in this one.

Have a great and profitable race everyone!

Frederic Crespi has been in the Las Vegas sports book industry since 1994. His favorite sport to bet on is NASCAR and the prices listed above are his opinion on what the rotation matchup odds should be. His betting notes will be available weekly after the final practices.

Tuesday, May 8, 2012

LVH Super Book Odds to Win 2012 Darlington Southern 500

Regan Smith paid out a Las Vegas record 500-to-1 odds last year (Getty)
BOJANGLES' SOUTHERN 500
DARLINGTON RACEWAY
SATURDAY, MAY 12, 2012


JIMMIE JOHNSON 6
CARL EDWARDS 8
KYLE BUSCH 8
MATT KENSETH 12
JEFF GORDON 8
TONY STEWART 8
KEVIN HARVICK 10
KASEY KAHNE 12
DENNY HAMLIN 10
GREG BIFFLE 8
BRAD KESELOWSKI 12
DALE EARNHARDT JR 15
CLINT BOWYER 30
RYAN NEWMAN 30
AJ ALLMENDINGER 60
MARTIN TRUEX JR 25
MARK MARTIN 30
JEFF BURTON 75
JOEY LOGANO 75
JUAN MONTOYA 75
JAMIE McMURRAY 60
KURT BUSCH 60
PAUL MENARD 100
MARCOS AMBROSE 60
ARIC ALMIROLA 200
REGAN SMITH 200
DANICA PATRICK 500
BOBBY LABONTE 1000
DAVID RAGAN 1000
FIELD 300