Micah Roberts' Top-10 Finish Prediction: 2023 YellaWood 500 at Talladega

Read my full article on Sportsline.com

1 #11 Denny Hamlin (12/1) - In 71 Cup starts at superspeedways he has five wins, 21 top-fives, and led 1,097 laps. His 21 top-fives is the most in the series among active drivers. Is this his year? Is this about to be his first NASCAR Cup Championship? I’m thinking it is and the storybook ending to the season has me wishing and hoping he’s finally crowned the champ. He’s grown into one of the best superspeedway drivers because he understands how the draft works better than anyone. He is able to manipulate the air in the draft to propel himself to speeds that others don’t understand yet. This man is driving for his legacy in the sport. Joey Logano has two titles and Hamlin none. That’s not cool. I’m here for it, I’m waiting for it. Starts at Talladega.

2 #12 Ryan Blaney (12/1) - This guy has only four top-fives this season. He did manage to find his way to a win. In 18 Talladega starts he has two wins, five top-fives, and 275 laps led. I put him in this position because he’s been runner-up in his last two Talladega starts. It’s a very good track for him.

3 #23 Bubba Wallace (14/1) - In 11 Talladega Cup starts, he has one 2021 win and that remains his only top-five and top-10. He’s led laps in seven of his last eight races. He led the most laps (111) last week at Texas and finished third and I was sick. But I can’t let my losses last week alter my thoughts on him this week, plus I won two driver matchups with him. But man, I wanted that win badly.

4 #24 William Byron (16/1) - In 21 Cup starts on superspeedways he has one 2020 Daytona win, four top-fives, and 191 laps led. His best at Talladega was runner-up in 2021 and his best this season was seventh in April. The treason you bet him is because he has six wins on the season and he’ll likely win once or twice more before the season is over,

5 #6 Brad Keselowski (10/1) - He has a series-leading seven wins on superspeedways, including six of them at Talladega. His last win was in 2021 at Talladega. His last two superspeedway starts have been impressive with fifth at Talladega in April and runner-up at Daytona last month. If he’s going to win again, this is the place.

6 #10 Aric Almirola (20/1) - Two of his career Cup wins have come on superspeedways with the last coming in 2018 at Talladega. It’s been a long season for him but I bet him this week because of his third place at Daytona last month. He’s led laps in his last four superspeedway starts.

7 #1 Ross Chastain (20/1) - In 20 superspeedway races he won once at Talladega last spring and finished fourth last fall. His best of the three races run this season was ninth in the Daytona 500. He’s included in my betting portfolio this week.

8 #47 Ricky Stenhouse Jr (22/1) - All three of his Cup wins have come in superspeedway race tracks, two in 2017 and one this year in the Daytona 500. He has nine top-fives in 43 superspeedway starts and led 252 laps. He knows how to make the winning moves but it’s also part of his risk-taking that gets him into trouble.

9 #54 Ty Gibbs (30/1) - This track has proven too big and bad for the young Gibbs, but I like him to manage his fears here and run well. He’s grown in confidence and while he may not have the chops to manage the draft, I advise him to stay back and run the race from the back and let the wrecks happen in front of him and out of harm's way. With 15 laps to go, make your move and race against 20 drivers rather than 38.

10 #2 Austin Cindric (30/1) - In eight Cup starts between Daytona and Talladega he has a win in the 2022 Daytona 500 and a third last summer at Daytona. His best is ninth at Talladega in this race last season.

Micah Roberts' Top-10 Finish Prediction: 2023 Hollywood Casino 400 at Kansas

Please read my full Kansas article on Sportsline.com

1 #19 Martin Truex Jr (11/2) - In 30 Cup starts at Kansas he has two wins, 10 top-fives, 17 top-10s, and 901 laps led. He’s averaged a 12th-place finish between all his starts and he has a fast car almost every week. This track is perfect for him and while I won’t win this most on him with my bets, If I had to pick one driver to win with my last dollar, it would be Truex.

2 #6 Brad Keselowski (20/1) - Back in the day with Team Penske he was always a threat to win at Kansas and he did twice with seven top-fives. Logano won three times as well. Penske was clicking. But now it’s RFK Racing and while he doesn’t have a win, and his teammate has three wins in the last six weeks. When’s it his turn? How about Sunday? His price makes him worth a shot to side with.

3 #9 Chase Elliott (25/1) - It’s been a crummy year for him, but he’s getting odds for this race that I don’t ever remember being this high. It’s so tempting, but I do believe. He’s not in the playoffs but I feel like the odds need to be exposed at Caesars Sportsbook. “Sure, we put Tyler Reddick at 9/1 but offer Chase Elliott at 25/1,” the oddsmaker might say. He’s the second-best at Kansas with a 10.9 average finish including a win and six top-fives. He’s got Hendrick equipment and it’s one of his best tracks. It’s a bet to make, put it on your things-to-do list this weekend.

4 #11 Denny Hamlin (5/1) - He’s the all-time leader in wins at Kansas with four and three of them happening since 2019. The bad part now is that he’s a huge favorite to win, but it’s been his best track since 2019. He was runner-up and fourth last season in his first year driving the NextGen car. He deserves to be the favorite. He has 12 top-fives in his 30 Cup starts.

5 #5 Kyle Larson (5/1) - In 17 Cup starts at Kansas he has a 13.5 average finish, a win, six top-fives, and nine top-10s with 540 laps led. It’s almost like the track was built for his specifications He was runner-up in the last two spring Kansas races after winning in the fall of 2021. He won last week, and he’s super greedy, so he’s a prime candidate to win.

6 #54 Ty Gibbs (35/1) - Hear me out to explain why I bet him to win. It starts with a good price, then moves on to the fact that he won an Xfinity Series race there in 2021. Then it’s the fact that he drives a JGR Toyota so he’s got the right brand, and finally, it’s the track. It’s the perfect track for him despite being in an accident and 34th in both his previous Cup starts. It just feels right this week.

7 #23 Bubba Wallace (12/1) - He won the second race of his career in this race last season and he followed that up with a fourth-place in the May race. Toyota has won six of the last eight races at Kansas. He has finished 14th or better in his last four starts at Kansas.

8 #24 William Byron (8/1) - This is his kind of race track. He’s got lots of room and can run his own line. He’s had top-10s in seven of his last eight starts, including a third from the pole in the May race. He won at Las Vegas and Darlington this season as a comparison to Kansas. He’ll probably be the guy I’m rooting against as I had to leave him out of my betting equation.

9 #1 Ross Chastain (16/1) - He’s someone I’m shopping prices with because his last three Kansas runs have been spectacular with two seventh-place finishes last season and a fifth in the May race. It’s go-time for whatever plan he used to calm the rivalries, but it’s go time now with the championship on the line and he showed it last week with a great run in the final stage at Darlington to finish fifth.

10 #17 Chris Buescher (15/1) - He has three wins between the last six races. He’s hot which is why you’re going to search for a better price and drop a few bucks on him. Somehow Team Penske and SHR Racing are going the other way in performance while RFK Racing gets the trophies. His best Kansas finish was sixth in 2017. He was 17th in the May race, but they’ve found speed.

Micah Roberts' Top-10 Finish Prediction: 2023 Grant Park 220 on Chicago Streets

Check out my full article on the Chicago race at Sportsline.com

1 #19 Martin Truex Jr. (7/1) - He just won at Sonoma leading a race-high 51 laps. His car dominated the end of the race. It was the best set-up he had with a JGR Toyota in the last 10 road races. It was his first top-five in his last 10 road races and also the first time he’s led a lap in his last 10 road races. The roads become more important in today’s NASCAR that Toyota has made huge grounds in setting up a quality ride. They had the best two cars at Sonoma, not by accident, but by making huge grounds in their road racing program. Truex has five road course wins now and might have six by the end of Saturday. He should be the favorite to win this race.

2 #45 Tyler Reddick (13/2) - He’s won three of the last six races on road courses and has led laps in five of his last six. The Toyota brand was on point for his car at COTA but finished 33rd at Sonoma after a decent start. But he never really contended at Sonoma after finishing sixth in the first stage. So the question is will he be set up better than everyone like he was at COTA or do we get the Sonoma set up? He’s batting .500 in his last six road races, so the price is somewhat attractive.

3 #17 Chris Buescher (20/1) - The new car has been his biggest edge on the road courses. He knows what he needs to run well, explains it to his team, and they give him what he needs to compete for a win. His last seven road starts with the new car have seen him finish in the top-10. His consistency in performance and car set-up has been amazing. He was runner-up at Sonoma last season and was fourth this season. He also was eighth at COTA in March. All top-10s, in seven straight of anything, is pretty good, but seven road courses are something that deserves some betting attention.

4 #16 A.J. Allmendinger (10/1) - His two wins in the NASCAR Cup Series have come on road courses, the last coming at the Indy course in 2021. His last six road starts have been amazing with a ninth or better in five of his last six. He was sixth at Sonoma three weeks ago. A new course, he’ll have an edge with attitude, arrogance, and skill.

5 #8 Kyle Busch (12/1) - He might offer the best value with his price-to-performance road racing ratio this week. Can he win? Sure why not, he has three wins already this season. But how about road courses? He has four wins and 18 top-fives over his 49 road starts. How about this season? He has a runner-up each at COTA and Sonoma, two-for-two in second place. It’s obvious the edge on roads that Tyler Reddick had last season in the first year of the NextGen car is still an edge with Busch driving it.

6 #9 Chase Elliott (5/1) - He has the most glorious road racing resume in NASCAR with an eighth-place average finish, seven wins in 26 starts with 15 top-fives, and 470 laps led. But he hasn’t won in his last 10 road races. He hasn’t won the last seven races on road courses using the NextGen car and while it might make sense that NASCAR’s main character wins on a new street circuit I just haven’t seen it yet with the new car. So how can I bet him now as the 5-to-1 favorite to do something he hasn’t done yet? His time is ticking as the countdown to the playoffs behind and he needs a win to make it.

7 #5 Kyle Larson (7/1) - He’s won four of the last 13 road course events but most of that damage was done in 2021 with the old car. He’s only won one road race in his last eight starts, including two very mediocre performances this season. He didn’t lead a lap in his last three and five of his last six road events. His recent history suggests his true price is 18-to-1 so why would I take 7-to-1?

8 #99 Daniel Suarez (25/1) - Seeing his teammate win last week raised the bar for Trackhouse Racing. Now it’s Suarez’s turn and after winning at Sonoma last season he finished fifth at Road America and Watkins Glen. But he finished 27th at COTA and 22nd at Sonoma this season. I would need 35/1 odds to bet him to win.

9 #11 Denny Hamlin (30/1) - The reason you might bet him this week besides the attractive price is because his car was bad-fast at Sonoma when he won the pole and led the first 32 laps, won the first stage, and then got an accident to finish poorly. The top two cars there were JGR Toyotas. They’ve found something in the NextGen car to help them get a better balance in their road setups. Overall, he has one road win and 13 top-fives in 47 road starts.

10 #34 Michael McDowell (25/1) - He was discovered by NASCAR driving on road courses and he’s showing off his skills during his last seven road course races beginning with a third last season at Sonoma and a seventh this season at Sonoma. He’s been 12th or better in six of his last seven road course starts. He’s a player this week as his low odds indicate.

Micah Roberts' Top-10 Finish Prediction: 2023 Toyota Owners 400 at Richmond

The seventh race of the unpredictable 2023 NASCAR Cup season takes us to Richmond Raceway, a type of flat track that aligns with New Hampshire Motor Speedway and Phoenix Raceway. If a driver does well on one of those tracks, they’ll likely do well on the other two tracks. The set-up requirements are very similar.

For a full write-up on Richmond, check out my Top-20 finish prediction on Sportsline.com.

Here’s what I’m thinking for Sunday’s Toyota Owners 400 with odds courtesy of Caesars sportsbooks:

1 #11 Denny Hamlin (8/1) - How can you not have some action on Hamlin this week? He grew up around the track his entire life living in nearby Chesterfield, VA, and has dominated the track with four wins, 17 top-fives, and 2,135 laps led. He also has three Xfinity wins. He won this race last season using a late pit strategy after leading only five laps. But the key for me is that he’s still with Joe Gibbs Racing and the issues they had turning the Toyota last season appear to be a thing of the past with Tyler Reddick showing the Toyota issues are all fixed. This track just suits him in every way.

2 #20 Christopher Bell (8/1) - In five Cup starts at Richmond he’s averaged a sixth-place finish which is the best among all active drivers. The three-quarter-mile flat layout has been one of his favorite tracks in the series and he made it clear when he won three of four at Richmond in the Xfinity Series in 2018-19.

3 #5 Kyle Larson (6/1) - His lone Cup win at Richmond came in 2017 when he led 53 laps. He was fifth in this race last season. He's been on the pole two of the last three Richmond races. This is a good track for him to run well at but he’s been disaster prone with just two top-10s this season in six races.

4 #4 Kevin Harvick (6/1) - He’s one of the best to ever do it at Richmond and this is his final season. He won at Richmond the last time he raced there last fall when his car got faster with each pit stop. He led 55 laps that day. In all, he has four Richmond wins, 17 top-fives, 29 top10s, and 1,235 laps led over 43 starts.

5 #24 William Byron (11/2) - His two best Richmond runs have come in this spring race the last two seasons with a seventh in 2021 and a third last season when he led 122 laps. The reason you might bet him this week is that he won at Phoenix three weeks ago.

6 #1 Ross Chastain (17/1) - He was 18th and 19th last season at Richmond after getting a career-best seventh in 2021, but the reason I like him this week is because of finishing runner-up at Phoenix in the spring last season and finishing third in the fall.

7 #45 Tyler Reddick (17/1) - His best finish was 11th during his first Cup race at Richmond in 2020. His success at Phoenix last season didn't coincide with doing well at Richmond. But he’s with an entirely new team with 23X11 Racing and he comes off a win last week at COTA.

8 #12 Ryan Blaney (15/1) - He has no top-fives in 13 Cup starts at Richmond, but it appears he’s warming up to the track in his last four starts finishing 11th or better in each. In this race last season he led the most laps (128) finishing seventh after starting from the pole.

9 #48 Alex Bowman (20/1) - He’s got the equipment with Hendrick and he’s had his two best finishes in this spring race the last two years.

10 #8 Kyle Busch (10/1) - He leads all active drivers with six Cup wins at Richmond to go along with 18 top-fives and 27 top-10s between 34 starts.

Circa Sports Odds to Win 2023 Busch Light Clash

 

Denny Hamlin is 12/1 to win 2023 Busch Light Clash

Denny Hamlin / No. 11 Sport Clips Toyota Camry TRD Preview

Busch Light Clash at Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum

 

No. 11 Sport Clips Toyota Camry TRD News and Notes

• LA COLISEUM DEBUT: Denny Hamlin finished 23rd in last year’s inaugural trip to Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum after a mechanical issue ended his race early. To advance to the main event, Hamlin had to battle his way in through a last-chance-qualifying race where he started first and led all 50 laps to secure his position in the 150-lap race.
• HAMLIN CLASH HISTORY: Hamlin is a three-time Busch Clash winner with all three victories coming at Daytona International Speedway. He won the annual exhibition race to kickstart his rookie season in 2006 and followed up by winning again in 2014 and 2016.
• 2022 SEASON RECAP: Last season marked the fourth consecutive season where Hamlin ended up in the top five in the series standings. While the final result was solid, the road there was a trying one for the No. 11 team. After finishing every race in 2021, various misfortunes saw Hamlin out of the race at the end of four of the first nine events in 2022. A win at Richmond Raceway in early April solidified his place in the playoffs and Hamlin added another crown jewel victory to his resume when he won the Coca-Cola 600 at Charlotte Motor Speedway in May. Once the playoffs began, Hamlin turned in an impressive stretch with a series-best 6.6 average finish over the final 10 races.
• SPORT CLIPS: Sport Clips will be featured as the primary sponsor for Hamlin at the Busch Clash. The sports-themed haircutting franchise based in Georgetown, Texas is a longtime supporter of Joe Gibbs Racing dating back to 2009 and has more than 1,850 stores in the United States and Canada.
• JGR CLASH STATS: Joe Gibbs Racing has earned 10 victories in the Busch Clash. Kyle Busch (2012 and 2021), Denny Hamlin (2006, 2014, 2016), Erik Jones (2020), Matt Kenseth (2015) and Tony Stewart (2001, 2002, 2007) have all won the race while driving for JGR.
• TUNE IN: Coverage of the Busch Light Clash at The Coliseum begins Sunday, February 5, at 5 p.m. ET on FOX, MRN Radio, and SiriusXM NASCAR Radio. The main event is scheduled to begin at 8 p.m. ET.

 

Denny Hamlin, Driver of the No. 11 Sport Clips Toyota Camry TRD

What are your thoughts on returning to the LA Coliseum for the second time?

“I’m looking forward to going back. NASCAR has done a great job putting this event together and I know there has been a lot of effort put in when you look at the celebrities coming out and the musical acts. It’s a fun atmosphere and an exciting way to start the season. From a racing perspective, we definitely want to have a better showing than we did last year, and I think we will. We improved so much from the start of the season to the end and everyone has worked really hard this offseason, so it’s always fun to see where we stack up.”

 

Hamlin NASCAR Cup Series Stats at Los Angeles Memorial Stadium

Starts	Wins	Top 5	Top 10	Poles	Laps Led	Avg. Start	Avg. Finish
1	0	0	0	0	0	17.0	23.0

 

Hamlin 2022 NASCAR Cup Series Season Stats

Starts	Wins	Top 5	Top 10	Poles	Laps Led	Avg. Start	Avg. Finish
36	2	10	16	3	624	13.1	15.5

 

Hamlin NASCAR Cup Series Career Stats

Starts	Wins	Top 5	Top 10	Poles	Laps Led	Avg. Start	Avg. Finish
614	48	208	321	36	13,354	12.0	13.2

 

About Sport Clips Haircuts

Sport Clips Haircuts is headquartered in Georgetown, Texas. It was established in 1993 and began franchising in 1995. The sports-themed haircutting franchise, which specializes in haircuts for men and boys, offers online check in for clients, and ranks #30 in the Entrepreneur “Franchise 500” for 2023 and is listed in Franchise Direct’s 2021 “Top 100 Global Franchises”. There are almost 1,900 Sport Clips stores open in the U.S. and Canada. Sport Clips is the “Official Haircutter” of the Veterans of Foreign Wars (VFW), offers veterans preferential pricing on haircuts and franchises, and was named a 2021 Top Franchise for Veterans by Entrepreneur. Sport Clips provides “Haircuts with Heart” through its annual Help A Hero fundraiser that has contributed $13 million to the VFW; national partnership with St. Baldrick’s Foundation, the largest private funder of childhood cancer research grants; and other national and local philanthropic outreach. Sport Clips is a proud sponsor of NASCAR’s Joe Gibbs Racing team and SRX Racing, and partners with other NCAA and professional sports teams. To learn more about Sport Clips, visit sportclips.com.

Las Vegas NASCAR Betting Preview: 2022 South Point 400

 NASCAR South Point 400 Picks, Preview

Micah Roberts

Sports Betting Expert

14 minute read

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It’s time for the South Point 400 at Las Vegas Motor Speedway’s 1.5-mile layout which starts the Round of 8 in the playoffs. Eight playoff drivers have been chopped after six races in the first two rounds and eight drivers remain with several new faces looking for their first NASCAR Cup Championship. 

The NextGen car has been bonkers trying to keep up with data and info after 19 different drivers have won in the first 32 races. Six races remain in the Round of 8 with the top scoring drivers from this round getting an invite to Phoenix on November 6 for the Championship 4. Everyone else is racing along the way, but the tension is building weight on all eight eligible drivers.

But I’ve made an impromptu chart for Las Vegas that involves races on recent tracks like Michigan, Darlington, Kansas, and Texas with those four tracks holding more relevance to my liking than the first Las Vegas race in March. Lots of new information for crew chiefs along the way have come about. The more recent success the better.

Here’s a look at what I’m thinking using odds in order of the favorite on down from BetMGM: 

SOUTH POINT 400 PICKS & PREDICTIONS

Denny Hamlin (11/2) has dominated the last two fall races at Las Vegas leading the most laps in both, finishing third in 2020 and winning his first Vegas race last season. He was running great in the March race leading 31 laps until a drivetrain issue relegated him to 32nd. The reason he’s deserving of being the favorite here is that he won the Coca-Cola 600 on a 1.5-mile layout, he was runner-up at Darlington’s 1.266-mile layout, and runner-up at Kansas last month. Terrible on the road courses and superspeedways this season with the NextGen car, but awesome at these big horsepower tracks. The next three races in this playoff round are all great tracks for Hamlin. How’s he feeling about it?

“I feel great about all of them,” Hamlin said. “All of them are just perfect for what our strengths are. I’m excited. We have been very strong on the intermediates all year and we tested Homestead a few weeks ago. We had a good test at Martinsville and even though we finished bad there in the spring, I feel good about what we have learned since then. We’re going to have to qualify well there, and track position is going to be huge. It’s time to go to work, but yeah, we’re really excited about our prospects in this next round.”

(Getty)

Chase Elliott (8/1) has never won at Las Vegas in 11 Cup starts, but he was runner-up in this race last season. Three top-fives aren’t too bad. He was ninth in the March race and broke a streak of leading laps in five straight Vegas races. But he is the Cup leader in points and wins (5). He has a knack for having races fall into his hands late.

Christopher Bell (8/1) was 10th in the March Vegas race after leading 32 laps. He's a real title contender and I think he likes this track.

“Vegas is one of my favorite tracks and Joe Gibbs Racing has been strong on the 1.5-mile tracks,” Bell said. “Vegas is one I’ve had circled for awhile and one we can contend for a win, or at least escape there with a good amount of points.”

Kyle Larson (8/1) has won an Xfinity Series race at LVMS in 2018 and he also won the spring race there last season. He also had 10 wins last season. This season, they use the NextGen car and he has only two wins with it. Listen up oddsmakers that keep making him single-digit odds each week. As a book, you can make money by attracting action at double-digit odds. I might bet him at 16-to-1 odds this season and so might a bunch of other bettors. His reputation precedes him and therefore I can’t bet him at dumb odds. New car, everyone!

Tyler Reddick (9/1) has won the last race at a 1.5-mile track at Texas on September 25. He also won a Truck Series race at LVMS in 2016 and he won an Xfinity Series race there in 2019. He’s going to the Hamlin/Jordan ride next year. He has three wins, and he’s eliminated from the playoffs. I think the only thing for him to do is win races in his last four starts for RCR. 

It’s so weird knowing I’ve come full circle with Kyle Busch (10/1) at the Las Vegas bullring when he was racing as a teenager who didn’t qualify to get a driver's license yet. He beat everyone. He got noticed. He got signed. Then he found a home at JGR and he’s been there since 2008. His only win at Vegas came in 2009. He has 10 top-fives in 22 Cup starts at Vegas. This will be his last Vegas race with JGR before he drives to No. 8 next season for RCR. He’s always got to feel the pressure racing in front of friends and family in Las Vegas.

“It’s cool to be able to come back home and to have the notoriety, I guess, that we have now,” Busch said. “When we went out there back in those days, there were many other drivers who were way bigger than us and way more popular than us. Now that we’ve been here for a while and those other drivers aren’t there anymore, we’ve kind of upped ourselves on the ladder of that and it’s cool. One of these days, hopefully, there might be a road out there named after us, or a grandstand or something of that nature. Don’t get too far ahead of yourselves because that just means I get closer to retirement if they start doing that, I guess.”

Search around for better odds to win, but I think Ross Chastain (10/1) can do it even though he hasn’t won since Talladega in April. He’s been stuck on two wins for a while. But the good news is that he led the most laps (83) at LVMS in March finishing third. He’s tempered his enthusiasm and aggression, what got him his early wins, and conformed to peer pressure and threats of being punted. It’s worked. He’s third in points and has a great shot here and also Homestead next week. He also won the 2018 Xfinity Series race in Vegas. I’ll have action on him to win.

SOUTH POINT 400 BETTING RESOURCES

Date: Sunday, October 16, 2022
Venue: Las Vegas Motor Speedway
Location: Las Vegas, Nevada
Distance: 400.5 miles
Laps: 267
Network-Time: NBC - 2:30 p.m.
Defending Champion: Denny Hamlin

Martin Truex Jr. (12/1) has won at LVMS in 2017 and 2019 and he’s been running well on these types of tracks like most of the JGR cars this season. He was fifth at Kansas which is a good comparison to Vegas. He was eighth in the March Vegas race.

“Las Vegas has been a great track for us for a long time,” Truex said. “Even with this car in the spring, we were right there in contention for the win until that caution came out at the end. It’s a place we have a lot of confidence going to and we feel good about how we’ve ran at these types of tracks all year, so it should be a good weekend for us.”

Ryan Blaney's (12/1) 11.1 average finish in 12 Cup starts at Las Vegas is fourth best among all active drivers. He should have two Vegas wins, but errored in pit stop strategy and experienced bad luck. He’s got five top-fives. Check out this scenario: he wins this race to qualify for Phoenix and wins a title. It’s his first win of the season and then he wins the championship. That’s a daily double we might want to play. Bet race winner parlayed to championship winner if allowed.    

William Byron (12/1) is still alive in the playoffs but he needs a couple of top-fives to advance in the next three races. He was fifth in the spring race, his best LVMS finish in the Cup Series. This is a race he can win, but I can’t bet him at these odds. He’s a wild card against my betting strategy. 

Bubba Wallace (14/1) is the reason you might bet him at Las Vegas is that he’s going to have one of the fastest Toyotas in the race. He’s got speed on the 1.5-mile tracks and it's been an adaption of the same races Hamlin, his boss, has had. He won at Kansas last month, and Hamlin was runner-up. Wallace was also runner-up at the big horsepower track of Michigan. I'm searching for better odds but I’ll have a bet on him for sure.

READ MORE HERE...TOP-5 FINISH PREDICTION ON VEGASINSIDER.COM

Talladega NASCAR Betting Preview: 2022 YellaWood 500

 Sunday, Sunday, Sunday!

It’s a wild card Sunday in the NASCAR Playoffs at Talladega Superspeedway’s 2.66-mile high-banked monster. The wild card is the beastly layout of the track itself where anything can happen and anyone can win. No playoff-eligible driver has won yet after four races in the playoffs and that trend is heightened by the idea this week that the Big One can take anyone out. 

The YellaWood 500 is the perfect race for the mid-point of the playoffs and also the mid-point of the Round of 12. After Next week’s race at the Charlotte ROVAL, four more drivers will get chopped.

The NextGen car has brought all kinds of parity into NASCAR 2022 but what I like most about the season is that anyone can win and not just on the superspeedways as in years past. Bettors can take long shots and cash. There have been 19 different winners through the first 30 races and favorites like Kyle Larson only have two wins. I love that about this season. 

Here’s a look at what I’m thinking this week using odds in order courtesy of BetMGM sportsbooks:

YELLAWOOD 500 PICKS & PREDICTIONS

Chase Elliott 12/1 has a Talladega win but he probably should have five more wins on superspeedways. He has 27 starts on them with six top-fives and 330 laps led. He has great equipment always. He’s had five poles on them and three other front-row starts. At Daytona in August, he led five times for 31 laps but was involved in an accident and finished 29th. He was seventh at Talladega in April and 10th in the Daytona 500. But he also won at Atlanta for the first time, his home track, leading a race-high 96 laps while using the superspeedway race package like Daytona and Talladega. He’s sitting seventh in playoff points and he’s got a fear of messing stuff up, but I think he’ll be fine. Caesars has him at 13-to-1 odds. I think he’s the driver to beat. 

"It’s obviously not an ideal situation to be where we’re at in the points heading into Talladega, but it is what it is,” Elliott said. “I’ve said for years that no one is safe in these playoffs. We’ve been in similar situations in the past, so we know what we need to do these next two weeks to put ourselves in a good position to advance. I know we’re fully capable of getting the job done. We’ve proven it time and time again."

First of all, Joey Logano 12/1 Team Penske and Team Penske wins these superspeedway races a bunch since Rusty Wallace retired. He’s got four wins in 55 starts on superspeedways with 15 top-fives and 651 laps led. The NextGen car didn’t produce this season as he had in the past, but he’s always a factor. He understands the draft and he’s got lots of friends out there that trust him to roll on a giddy-up move onto a new line to the front. He’s second in points so I don’t expect many daring moves, but once he gets involved he’ll be his normal self which sometimes gets him in trouble in these races. Sometimes wrecking his own teammates late in the race.

I saw Ross Chastain 12/1 at 15-to-1 to win at Caesars so check that out if you like him. He won the April Talladega race and led just one lap, the last one. That was the old Chastain, brave and brash. That was the Chastain that chucked a watermelon after winning and gained all kinds of new fans. But the veterans put him in his place and he abided. Now he drives delicately and doesn’t tread on anyone. He’s almost corporate NASCAR worthy now. But he’s second in points and still eligible for a title. I think he waits out the Big One and puts himself in a position to win late. Come on watermelon sugar!

Ryan Blaney 12/1 is a two-time winner at Talladega and he’s comfortably sitting fourth in points. Why not just win the race and win the championship? He still has yet to win a points-paying race this season, although he did win the $1 million prize for winning the non-points All-Star Race. Team Penske equipment is always a positive.

Denny Hamlin 14/1 is the best on superspeedways. He sees the air before the air sees itself. He knows where the air is going and uses it to move where he needs to get more speed out of it. It’s magical and it's how he won three Daytona 500s. He has five superspeedway wins and 20 top-fives with 1,052 laps led. NASCAR should check him for illegal wizardry. Best of all, this BetMGM price is the highest I’ve seen on him in superspeedway races since he won his first Daytona 500. Yes, I’m down.  

“It’s really tough because you can’t predict when a wreck is going to happen,” Hamlin said about Talladega approach. “As a driver, you start to feel the intensity of the pack picking up and you start to see people making aggressive moves. You just have to make a judgement call on whether you want to be a part of it at that time. What’s difficult about the Next Gen car is that you can’t go from the back of the pack to the front like you used to be able to. It’s pretty much a two-lane road and you have to pick one lane or the other. No matter what, with these cars having so much drag on them, you can’t get the third lane going. That used to be the avenue to go from the back to the front, so you used to be able to lay back and make your charge whenever you wanted to. Now, you have to try to stay up front and that’s what we’ll try to do, but you ultimately put yourself at risk of getting in a wreck.”

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In 32 superspeedway races Kyle Larson 14/1 has one top-five and it came in April at Talladega with fourth place after leading 32 laps. This type of racing has never been his thing. The cars are all bunched up and he looks uncomfortable in them. But this is the playoffs. Work through the rough patches and find a way. I wonder if he’ll play it safe here on such a volatile track. 

"I don’t think so just because there’s so many stage points on the line,” Larson said. “Yes, there might be a couple that do that, but I feel like you typically don’t see that. I think there’s so many stage points on the line that if you can get those points then, even if you wreck, you’ll have a decent points day out of it. I see everybody racing pretty hard."

William Byron's 14/1 best Talladega finish was runner-up last season and in 2020 he was fourth. He also won at Daytona in 2020. He’s good and has good enough equipment to win, but he’s got other issues. And it’s not NASCAR fining him or taking points away after his shenanigans at Texas last week. A bet on Byron means you have to trust Denny Hamlin to not exact revenge and Talladega is so easy to make a deliberate punt look like a mistake or just one of those racing things. I think he’s toxic this week with a big red siren saying stay away from the bet windows. I might take a shot at 28-to-1, though.

"Racing at Talladega is more about how well you can push someone and how well your car can receive a push,”  Byron said. “It’s a track where you really have to be able to work with other cars to not only get to the front but also stay up there. We were running up front in the spring race and lost our help in the end to stay up front, unfortunately. Once you get back in traffic, it’s a lot harder to make your way forward. With how close the points are right now, I think stage points are going to be even more crucial Sunday than they normally are in this race. With everyone trying to get every point they can, you don’t want to put yourself at risk of not finishing the race either just trying to get a stage point. It’s a fine balance for sure." 

YELLAWOOD 500 BETTING RESOURCES

Date: Sunday, October 2, 2022
Venue: Talladega Superspeedway
Location: Lincoln, Alabama
Distance: 500 miles
Laps: 188
Network-Time: NBC - 2:00 p.m.
Defending Champion: Bubba Wallace

The only tracks you should bet Austin Cindric 16/1 are on superspeedways and road courses so that means I’m betting him the next two weeks. I just have to find better prices. The rookie burst onto the scene with a Daytona 500 win and then was third at Daytona last month. He also was third at Atlanta using the superspeedway package. Team Penske equipment is so good on these tracks.

Shop around for the best odds, but Bubba Wallace 16/1 is someone you should have in your betting portfolio this week. BetMGM might have the best odds so far from what I’ve seen. He won this race last season for his first Cup win. He started off this season with a runner-up in the Daytona 500. He was good on superspeedways before getting great equipment and now he’s got two Cup wins. He’s proved himself, now he belongs. Now he has swagger and is at a confidence level he’s never been at. He’s going to come in saying he’s going to win and I believe him.   

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