Micah Roberts' Top-10 Finish Prediction: 2023 Hollywood Casino 400 at Kansas

Please read my full Kansas article on Sportsline.com

1 #19 Martin Truex Jr (11/2) - In 30 Cup starts at Kansas he has two wins, 10 top-fives, 17 top-10s, and 901 laps led. He’s averaged a 12th-place finish between all his starts and he has a fast car almost every week. This track is perfect for him and while I won’t win this most on him with my bets, If I had to pick one driver to win with my last dollar, it would be Truex.

2 #6 Brad Keselowski (20/1) - Back in the day with Team Penske he was always a threat to win at Kansas and he did twice with seven top-fives. Logano won three times as well. Penske was clicking. But now it’s RFK Racing and while he doesn’t have a win, and his teammate has three wins in the last six weeks. When’s it his turn? How about Sunday? His price makes him worth a shot to side with.

3 #9 Chase Elliott (25/1) - It’s been a crummy year for him, but he’s getting odds for this race that I don’t ever remember being this high. It’s so tempting, but I do believe. He’s not in the playoffs but I feel like the odds need to be exposed at Caesars Sportsbook. “Sure, we put Tyler Reddick at 9/1 but offer Chase Elliott at 25/1,” the oddsmaker might say. He’s the second-best at Kansas with a 10.9 average finish including a win and six top-fives. He’s got Hendrick equipment and it’s one of his best tracks. It’s a bet to make, put it on your things-to-do list this weekend.

4 #11 Denny Hamlin (5/1) - He’s the all-time leader in wins at Kansas with four and three of them happening since 2019. The bad part now is that he’s a huge favorite to win, but it’s been his best track since 2019. He was runner-up and fourth last season in his first year driving the NextGen car. He deserves to be the favorite. He has 12 top-fives in his 30 Cup starts.

5 #5 Kyle Larson (5/1) - In 17 Cup starts at Kansas he has a 13.5 average finish, a win, six top-fives, and nine top-10s with 540 laps led. It’s almost like the track was built for his specifications He was runner-up in the last two spring Kansas races after winning in the fall of 2021. He won last week, and he’s super greedy, so he’s a prime candidate to win.

6 #54 Ty Gibbs (35/1) - Hear me out to explain why I bet him to win. It starts with a good price, then moves on to the fact that he won an Xfinity Series race there in 2021. Then it’s the fact that he drives a JGR Toyota so he’s got the right brand, and finally, it’s the track. It’s the perfect track for him despite being in an accident and 34th in both his previous Cup starts. It just feels right this week.

7 #23 Bubba Wallace (12/1) - He won the second race of his career in this race last season and he followed that up with a fourth-place in the May race. Toyota has won six of the last eight races at Kansas. He has finished 14th or better in his last four starts at Kansas.

8 #24 William Byron (8/1) - This is his kind of race track. He’s got lots of room and can run his own line. He’s had top-10s in seven of his last eight starts, including a third from the pole in the May race. He won at Las Vegas and Darlington this season as a comparison to Kansas. He’ll probably be the guy I’m rooting against as I had to leave him out of my betting equation.

9 #1 Ross Chastain (16/1) - He’s someone I’m shopping prices with because his last three Kansas runs have been spectacular with two seventh-place finishes last season and a fifth in the May race. It’s go-time for whatever plan he used to calm the rivalries, but it’s go time now with the championship on the line and he showed it last week with a great run in the final stage at Darlington to finish fifth.

10 #17 Chris Buescher (15/1) - He has three wins between the last six races. He’s hot which is why you’re going to search for a better price and drop a few bucks on him. Somehow Team Penske and SHR Racing are going the other way in performance while RFK Racing gets the trophies. His best Kansas finish was sixth in 2017. He was 17th in the May race, but they’ve found speed.

William Byron is 8/1 to win at Kansas

 

24 WILLIAM BYRON   Age: 25 (Nov. 29, 1997)   Hometown: Charlotte, North Carolina   Resides: Charlotte, North Carolina   Crew Chief: Rudy Fugle   Standings: 1st

No. 24 RaptorTough.com Chevrolet Camaro ZL1   KEEP IT ROLLIN’: After a fourth-place result at Darlington Raceway, Willliam Byron maintained his points lead as the NASCAR Cup Series heads to the second playoff race in the Round of 16. Now 45 points above the elimination line for the Round of 12, Byron is looking to make a run for the championship in his career-best season. After 27 races this year, he leads the series in wins (five), stage wins (eight) and laps run in the top five (3,015). The 25-year-old driver’s series-leading 877 laps led are also a single-season career-best. He is second in top-five finishes (10, behind only teammate Kyle Larson), average running position (10.387) and laps run in the top 10 (3,996). 1.5-MILE MOMENTUM: Byron is no stranger to success on mile-and-a-half tracks during his Cup Series career. Since the start of 2021 (not counting races at Atlanta Motor Speedway since its reconfiguration in 2022), he has two wins (Homestead-Miami Speedway in 2021 and Las Vegas Motor Speedway in 2023), two runner-up finishes, seven top-fives, and 13 top-10s on 1.5-mile tracks. In fact, in the three races on 1.5-mile tracks this season, Byron has finished no worse than third and has a 2.00 average finish – best of the field and only the 17th driver in history to hold that low of an average finish on that track length. Since the inception of the Next Gen car in 2022, he has collected 383 points at mile-and-a-half tracks, trailing the leader by only one point.  MIDWEST MOJO: Byron has 11 Cup Series starts at Kansas Speedway. In his last eight starts at the 1.5-mile track, Byron has collected one pole award, two top-five finishes and seven top-10s. It is also the track where Byron has the most top-10 finishes in his Cup Series career (seven) ahead of Martinsville Speedway and Phoenix Raceway (six each). In the last five races at Kansas, Byron has led 101 laps – fifth-most in the series. In this year’s May race, Byron earned the pole position and finished third.  THERE’S NO PLACE LIKE KANSAS: Sunday’s race will be Rudy Fugle’s sixth start as a Cup Series crew chief at Kansas. His first five Cup Series races at the Midwest track have resulted in one pole award, one top-five finish, four top-10s and 101 laps led with the No. 24 team. Aside from those five Cup Series starts, the Livonia, New York, native has 12 previous starts at the 1.5-mile oval, with 10 coming in the NASCAR CRAFTSMAN Truck Series. In the Truck Series, Fugle’s drivers have started from the top spot in the field on four occasions, collected two wins (2016 and 2018), five top-five finishes, six top-10s and 391 laps led. His 2016 win came with Byron, who captured his first Truck Series win in just their fifth start together. PIT ROAD PROWESS: After 27 races in the 2023 season, the No. 24 pit crew remains in the top spot with the fastest average four-tire pit stop time of 11.071 seconds. The No. 24 pit crew consists of Spencer Bishop (jackman), Jeff Cordero (front-tire changer), Orane Ossowski (rear-tire changer), Ryan Patton (tire carrier) and Landon Walker (fueler). RAPTOR® TOUGH: At Kansas, Byron will climb behind the wheel of the No. 24 RaptorTough.com Chevrolet Camaro ZL1. RAPTOR® is a durable protective coating that is designed to tolerate the toughest climatic conditions and can be applied to a wide range of items, including truck beds, lawnmowers, outdoor furniture and more. With 16 pre-mixed colors available, it’s easy to personalize anything you want to protect. RAPTOR® is available at local paint distributors, auto parts stores and online retailers. For a better look at Byron’s No. 24 RaptorTough.com Chevrolet Camaro ZL1, click here. HONORING DANETTE KETCHER: The Martin Truex Jr. Foundation and The NASCAR Foundation have partnered together for the fourth time to recognize those who have battled cancer by auctioning off the space above the driver-side door to honor a cancer hero. For this weekend, Byron will have Danette Ketcher, who was nominated by her sister, Debra Halter, riding on board his No. 24 Chevy. As a manager of a small business and her work with rental properties, Ketcher was classified as the epitome of a hero who devoted every ounce of her time and energy to giving selflessly. Her family chose to honor Ketcher on the No. 24 as it is her nephew’s favorite driver and her nomination was suggested by him. William Byron, driver of the No. 24 Chevrolet Camaro ZL1, on his outlook for Kansas: "We had a solid race last weekend at Darlington (Raceway) and it was a good showing for Hendrick Motorsports as a whole. I think we have the potential to have another solid race this weekend. Kansas (Speedway) has always been a strong track for me and Rudy (Fugle, crew chief). I think our mile-and-a-half program has been really good this season. It’s been a while since we’ve raced on that style of track, though, so it’ll be interesting to see if any of the other teams have caught up with their setups. Hopefully, we can go in there have a solid Saturday and execute on Sunday.” Rudy Fugle, crew chief of the No. 24 Chevrolet Camaro ZL1, on what he expects for this weekend's race at Kansas: "It’s going to be a tough one. Since they’ve moved this race at Kansas (Speedway) up a couple weeks, you never know what you’re going to get with the weather. Right now, it looks like it’s going to be hot and we don’t get a lot of sets of tires. Last year’s race, and even the race in the spring, it was a tire-heavy race. If there was another caution, most of us didn’t have another set of tires to get. I’m thinking we’re going to have the same thing this weekend which is fun and adds another element. I think there will be a lot of guys sliding around and a lot of guys rim-riding and hitting the wall. It probably won’t be that much different than Darlington (Raceway), just a little bit faster."

Kansas Speedway marks the midway point of the Playoffs’ Round of 16

After an eventful NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs opener at the historic Darlington Raceway, the 16 postseason contenders turn their attention to the only 1.5-mile track in the round - Kansas Speedway - for the Hollywood Casino 400 on Sunday, September 10 at 3 p.m. ET on USA, MRN and SiriusXM NASCAR Radio.

 

Hendrick Motorsports’ Kyle Larson is the first Playoff driver to earn his spot in the Round of 12 with his victory last weekend at Darlington, leaving 11 spots still up for grabs, as the series heads to Kansas for the second of three races in the Round of 16. Four drivers will not move on to the Round of 12, and the contenders currently under the cutline heading into this weekend are 23XI Racing’s Bubba Wallace (-1 point), Stewart-Haas Racing’s Kevin Harvick (-2 points), JTG Daugherty Racing’s Ricky Stenhouse Jr. (-4 points) and Front Row Motorsports’ Michael McDowell (-19 points). Joe Gibbs Racing’s Christopher Bell is currently in the 12th and final transfer spot on points.

 

The 2023 season marks the second-time the NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs’ second race has been hosted by Kansas Speedway. Kansas (2022-2023) is the fourth different track in NASCAR Cup Series history to host the second race of the Playoffs; joining Dover Motor Speedway (2004-2010), New Hampshire Motor Speedway (2011–2017) and Richmond Raceway (2018-2021).

 

A total of 14 different drivers have won the second race of the Playoffs, led by seven-time NASCAR Cup Series champion Jimmie Johnson with three wins (2005, 2009, 2010); followed by Kyle Busch (2017, 2018), Matt Kenseth (2013, 2015) and Martin Truex Jr. (2019, 2021) with two victories each.

 

Race No. 2 Of The NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs - Race Winners (2004-2022)
Date	Track	Playoff Race Winners
Sunday, September 26, 2004	Dover	Ryan Newman
Sunday, September 25, 2005	Dover	Jimmie Johnson
Sunday, September 24, 2006	Dover	Jeff Burton
Sunday, September 23, 2007	Dover	Carl Edwards
Sunday, September 21, 2008	Dover	Greg Biffle
Sunday, September 27, 2009	Dover	Jimmie Johnson
Sunday, September 26, 2010	Dover	Jimmie Johnson
Sunday, September 25, 2011	Loudon	Tony Stewart
Sunday, September 23, 2012	Loudon	Denny Hamlin
Sunday, September 22, 2013	Loudon	Matt Kenseth
Sunday, September 21, 2014	Loudon	Joey Logano
Sunday, September 27, 2015	Loudon	Matt Kenseth
Sunday, September 25, 2016	Loudon	Kevin Harvick
Sunday, September 24, 2017	Loudon	Kyle Busch
Saturday, September 22, 2018	Richmond	Kyle Busch
Saturday, September 21, 2019	Richmond	Martin Truex Jr
Saturday, September 12, 2020	Richmond	Brad Keselowski
Saturday, September 11, 2021	Richmond	Martin Truex Jr
Sunday, September 11, 2022	Kansas	Bubba Wallace

 

Since the inception of the NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs in 2004, Kansas Speedway has participated in the postseason each year, and moving to the second race last season marked the seventh different positions on the Playoff schedule the track has occupied:

 

1. From 2004, 2005, 2011, 2013 and 2014 Kansas Speedway hosted the fourth race in the NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs.
2. From 2006-2010 Kansas Speedway hosted the third race in the NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs.
3. From 2015-2016 Kansas hosted the fifth race of the NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs.
4. Then in 2012, 2017, 2018 and 2019 Kansas Speedway hosted the sixth race of the NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs.
5. In 2020, Kansas Speedway hosted the seventh race of the NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs.
6. In 2021, Kansas Speedway hosted the eighth race of the NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs.
7. Since 2022, Kansas Speedway has hosted the second race of the NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs.

A total of 14 different drivers have won the NASCAR Cup Series Playoff races at Kansas Speedway:

 

NASCAR Cup Series Playoff Race Winners - Kansas Speedway (2004-2022)
Date	Track	Race Winners	Race No.
Sunday, October 10, 2004	Kansas	Joe Nemechek	30
Sunday, October 9, 2005	Kansas	Mark Martin	30
Sunday, October 1, 2006	Kansas	Tony Stewart	29
Sunday, September 30, 2007	Kansas	Greg Biffle	29
Sunday, September 28, 2008	Kansas	Jimmie Johnson	29
Sunday, October 4, 2009	Kansas	Tony Stewart	29
Sunday, October 3, 2010	Kansas	Greg Biffle	29
Sunday, October 9, 2011	Kansas	Jimmie Johnson	30
Sunday, October 21, 2012	Kansas	Matt Kenseth	32
Sunday, October 6, 2013	Kansas	Kevin Harvick	30
Sunday, October 5, 2014	Kansas	Joey Logano	30
Sunday, October 18, 2015	Kansas	Joey Logano	31
Sunday, October 16, 2016	Kansas	Kevin Harvick	31
Sunday, October 22, 2017	Kansas	Martin Truex Jr	32
Sunday, October 21, 2018	Kansas	Chase Elliott	32
Sunday, October 20, 2019	Kansas	Denny Hamlin	32
Sunday, October 18, 2020	Kansas	Joey Logano	33
Sunday, October 24, 2021	Kansas	Kyle Larson	34
Sunday, September 11, 2022	Kansas	Bubba Wallace	27

 

Team Penske’s Joey Logano leads the NASCAR Cup Series in Playoff wins at Kansas Speedway with three postseason victories (2014, 2015, 2020); followed by four other drivers with multiple Kanas Playoff wins: Tony Stewart (2006, 2009), Jimmie Johnson (2008, 2011), Greg Biffle (2007, 2010) and Stewart-Haas Racing’s Kevin Harvick (2013, 2016). 23XI Racing’s Bubba Wallace is the most recent Playoff race winner at Kansas Speedway (2022).

 

Winning the second the race in the NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs has been a springboard for a few competitors throughout the years. When Dover Motor Speedway hosted the second race of the NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs (2004-2010), twice the winning driver went on to win the series title that same season – Jimmie Johnson (2009 and 2010). When New Hampshire Motor Speedway moved to the second race in the Playoffs (2011-2017), only one driver won the event and went on to win the title that same year – Tony Stewart (2011). Stewart won five races in the 2011 NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs (a series-record tied with Kyle Larson, 2021). None of the Playoff race winners at Richmond Raceway (2018-2021) went on to win the title in the same season.

 

Twice the winner of the NASCAR Cup Series Playoff race at Kansas Speedway has gone on to win the title that same season. In 2008, Jimmie Johnson won the Kansas Speedway NASCAR Cup Series Playoff race from the pole, leading 124 laps, and then went on to win his third consecutive series title later that season. Kansas was the third race of the Playoffs in 2008. The Kansas win was the first of three Playoff wins for Johnson en route to the 2008 title. Then in 2017, Martin Truex Jr. won the Kansas Speedway NASCAR Cup Series Playoff race from the pole, leading 91 laps, and went on to win his first NASCAR Cup Series title later that season. Kansas was the sixth race of the Playoffs in 2017. The Kansas win was the second of four Playoff victories for Truex en route to the championship in 2017.

 

Last season, 23XI Racing’s Bubba Wallace became the first non-Playoff driver to win the second race on the NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs’ schedule (2004-2022). Wallace was ranked 20th in the standings at the time of the win.

 

Four non-Playoff drivers have won a NASCAR Cup Series Playoff race at Kansas Speedway. In 2004, Joe Nemechek became the first non-Playoff driver to win the NASCAR Cup Series Playoff race at Kansas Speedway. He was ranked 21st in the point standings at the time of the win. In 2006, NASCAR Hall of Famer Tony Stewart won the NASCAR Cup Series Playoff race at Kansas Speedway and was ranked 11th in point standings at the time of the victory – the first spot outside the postseason. In 2007, Greg Biffle won the NASCAR Cup Series Playoff race at Kansas Speedway and was ranked 14th in points at the time of the win. And last season Bubba Wallace added his name to the list with his victory at Kansas Speedway; he was ranked 20th in points.

 

The worst finish in a NASCAR Cup Series Playoff race at Kansas Speedway by a driver that went on to win the championship later that same season was 17th by last season’s champion Team Penske’s Joey Logano. The Kansas Playoff race was the second race of the 2022 postseason schedule.

 

The worst finish by a driver in the second race on the NASCAR Cup Playoffs schedule that went on to win the title that same season was: 

 

• At Dover Motor Speedway (2004-2010) – the 2005 series champion Tony Stewart finished 18th.
• At New Hampshire Motor Speedway (2011-2017) – the 2015 series champion Kyle Busch finished 37th.
• At Richmond Raceway (2018-2021) – the 2018 series champion Joey Logano finished 14th.

All the NASCAR Cup Series on-track activity at Kansas Speedway gets rolling with practice and Busch Light Pole Qualifying on Saturday, September 9 from 12 – 2 p.m. ET on the USA Network, MRN and SiriusXM NASCAR Radio.