Micah Roberts' Top-10 Finish Prediction: 2023 Hollywood Casino 400 at Kansas

Please read my full Kansas article on Sportsline.com

1 #19 Martin Truex Jr (11/2) - In 30 Cup starts at Kansas he has two wins, 10 top-fives, 17 top-10s, and 901 laps led. He’s averaged a 12th-place finish between all his starts and he has a fast car almost every week. This track is perfect for him and while I won’t win this most on him with my bets, If I had to pick one driver to win with my last dollar, it would be Truex.

2 #6 Brad Keselowski (20/1) - Back in the day with Team Penske he was always a threat to win at Kansas and he did twice with seven top-fives. Logano won three times as well. Penske was clicking. But now it’s RFK Racing and while he doesn’t have a win, and his teammate has three wins in the last six weeks. When’s it his turn? How about Sunday? His price makes him worth a shot to side with.

3 #9 Chase Elliott (25/1) - It’s been a crummy year for him, but he’s getting odds for this race that I don’t ever remember being this high. It’s so tempting, but I do believe. He’s not in the playoffs but I feel like the odds need to be exposed at Caesars Sportsbook. “Sure, we put Tyler Reddick at 9/1 but offer Chase Elliott at 25/1,” the oddsmaker might say. He’s the second-best at Kansas with a 10.9 average finish including a win and six top-fives. He’s got Hendrick equipment and it’s one of his best tracks. It’s a bet to make, put it on your things-to-do list this weekend.

4 #11 Denny Hamlin (5/1) - He’s the all-time leader in wins at Kansas with four and three of them happening since 2019. The bad part now is that he’s a huge favorite to win, but it’s been his best track since 2019. He was runner-up and fourth last season in his first year driving the NextGen car. He deserves to be the favorite. He has 12 top-fives in his 30 Cup starts.

5 #5 Kyle Larson (5/1) - In 17 Cup starts at Kansas he has a 13.5 average finish, a win, six top-fives, and nine top-10s with 540 laps led. It’s almost like the track was built for his specifications He was runner-up in the last two spring Kansas races after winning in the fall of 2021. He won last week, and he’s super greedy, so he’s a prime candidate to win.

6 #54 Ty Gibbs (35/1) - Hear me out to explain why I bet him to win. It starts with a good price, then moves on to the fact that he won an Xfinity Series race there in 2021. Then it’s the fact that he drives a JGR Toyota so he’s got the right brand, and finally, it’s the track. It’s the perfect track for him despite being in an accident and 34th in both his previous Cup starts. It just feels right this week.

7 #23 Bubba Wallace (12/1) - He won the second race of his career in this race last season and he followed that up with a fourth-place in the May race. Toyota has won six of the last eight races at Kansas. He has finished 14th or better in his last four starts at Kansas.

8 #24 William Byron (8/1) - This is his kind of race track. He’s got lots of room and can run his own line. He’s had top-10s in seven of his last eight starts, including a third from the pole in the May race. He won at Las Vegas and Darlington this season as a comparison to Kansas. He’ll probably be the guy I’m rooting against as I had to leave him out of my betting equation.

9 #1 Ross Chastain (16/1) - He’s someone I’m shopping prices with because his last three Kansas runs have been spectacular with two seventh-place finishes last season and a fifth in the May race. It’s go-time for whatever plan he used to calm the rivalries, but it’s go time now with the championship on the line and he showed it last week with a great run in the final stage at Darlington to finish fifth.

10 #17 Chris Buescher (15/1) - He has three wins between the last six races. He’s hot which is why you’re going to search for a better price and drop a few bucks on him. Somehow Team Penske and SHR Racing are going the other way in performance while RFK Racing gets the trophies. His best Kansas finish was sixth in 2017. He was 17th in the May race, but they’ve found speed.

William Byron is 8/1 to win at Kansas

 

24 WILLIAM BYRON   Age: 25 (Nov. 29, 1997)   Hometown: Charlotte, North Carolina   Resides: Charlotte, North Carolina   Crew Chief: Rudy Fugle   Standings: 1st

No. 24 RaptorTough.com Chevrolet Camaro ZL1   KEEP IT ROLLIN’: After a fourth-place result at Darlington Raceway, Willliam Byron maintained his points lead as the NASCAR Cup Series heads to the second playoff race in the Round of 16. Now 45 points above the elimination line for the Round of 12, Byron is looking to make a run for the championship in his career-best season. After 27 races this year, he leads the series in wins (five), stage wins (eight) and laps run in the top five (3,015). The 25-year-old driver’s series-leading 877 laps led are also a single-season career-best. He is second in top-five finishes (10, behind only teammate Kyle Larson), average running position (10.387) and laps run in the top 10 (3,996). 1.5-MILE MOMENTUM: Byron is no stranger to success on mile-and-a-half tracks during his Cup Series career. Since the start of 2021 (not counting races at Atlanta Motor Speedway since its reconfiguration in 2022), he has two wins (Homestead-Miami Speedway in 2021 and Las Vegas Motor Speedway in 2023), two runner-up finishes, seven top-fives, and 13 top-10s on 1.5-mile tracks. In fact, in the three races on 1.5-mile tracks this season, Byron has finished no worse than third and has a 2.00 average finish – best of the field and only the 17th driver in history to hold that low of an average finish on that track length. Since the inception of the Next Gen car in 2022, he has collected 383 points at mile-and-a-half tracks, trailing the leader by only one point.  MIDWEST MOJO: Byron has 11 Cup Series starts at Kansas Speedway. In his last eight starts at the 1.5-mile track, Byron has collected one pole award, two top-five finishes and seven top-10s. It is also the track where Byron has the most top-10 finishes in his Cup Series career (seven) ahead of Martinsville Speedway and Phoenix Raceway (six each). In the last five races at Kansas, Byron has led 101 laps – fifth-most in the series. In this year’s May race, Byron earned the pole position and finished third.  THERE’S NO PLACE LIKE KANSAS: Sunday’s race will be Rudy Fugle’s sixth start as a Cup Series crew chief at Kansas. His first five Cup Series races at the Midwest track have resulted in one pole award, one top-five finish, four top-10s and 101 laps led with the No. 24 team. Aside from those five Cup Series starts, the Livonia, New York, native has 12 previous starts at the 1.5-mile oval, with 10 coming in the NASCAR CRAFTSMAN Truck Series. In the Truck Series, Fugle’s drivers have started from the top spot in the field on four occasions, collected two wins (2016 and 2018), five top-five finishes, six top-10s and 391 laps led. His 2016 win came with Byron, who captured his first Truck Series win in just their fifth start together. PIT ROAD PROWESS: After 27 races in the 2023 season, the No. 24 pit crew remains in the top spot with the fastest average four-tire pit stop time of 11.071 seconds. The No. 24 pit crew consists of Spencer Bishop (jackman), Jeff Cordero (front-tire changer), Orane Ossowski (rear-tire changer), Ryan Patton (tire carrier) and Landon Walker (fueler). RAPTOR® TOUGH: At Kansas, Byron will climb behind the wheel of the No. 24 RaptorTough.com Chevrolet Camaro ZL1. RAPTOR® is a durable protective coating that is designed to tolerate the toughest climatic conditions and can be applied to a wide range of items, including truck beds, lawnmowers, outdoor furniture and more. With 16 pre-mixed colors available, it’s easy to personalize anything you want to protect. RAPTOR® is available at local paint distributors, auto parts stores and online retailers. For a better look at Byron’s No. 24 RaptorTough.com Chevrolet Camaro ZL1, click here. HONORING DANETTE KETCHER: The Martin Truex Jr. Foundation and The NASCAR Foundation have partnered together for the fourth time to recognize those who have battled cancer by auctioning off the space above the driver-side door to honor a cancer hero. For this weekend, Byron will have Danette Ketcher, who was nominated by her sister, Debra Halter, riding on board his No. 24 Chevy. As a manager of a small business and her work with rental properties, Ketcher was classified as the epitome of a hero who devoted every ounce of her time and energy to giving selflessly. Her family chose to honor Ketcher on the No. 24 as it is her nephew’s favorite driver and her nomination was suggested by him. William Byron, driver of the No. 24 Chevrolet Camaro ZL1, on his outlook for Kansas: "We had a solid race last weekend at Darlington (Raceway) and it was a good showing for Hendrick Motorsports as a whole. I think we have the potential to have another solid race this weekend. Kansas (Speedway) has always been a strong track for me and Rudy (Fugle, crew chief). I think our mile-and-a-half program has been really good this season. It’s been a while since we’ve raced on that style of track, though, so it’ll be interesting to see if any of the other teams have caught up with their setups. Hopefully, we can go in there have a solid Saturday and execute on Sunday.” Rudy Fugle, crew chief of the No. 24 Chevrolet Camaro ZL1, on what he expects for this weekend's race at Kansas: "It’s going to be a tough one. Since they’ve moved this race at Kansas (Speedway) up a couple weeks, you never know what you’re going to get with the weather. Right now, it looks like it’s going to be hot and we don’t get a lot of sets of tires. Last year’s race, and even the race in the spring, it was a tire-heavy race. If there was another caution, most of us didn’t have another set of tires to get. I’m thinking we’re going to have the same thing this weekend which is fun and adds another element. I think there will be a lot of guys sliding around and a lot of guys rim-riding and hitting the wall. It probably won’t be that much different than Darlington (Raceway), just a little bit faster."

Kyle Larson is 5/1 to win 2023 Hollywood Casino 400

 

5 KYLE LARSON   Age: 31 (July 31, 1992)   Hometown: Elk Grove, California   Resides: Mooresville, North Carolina   Crew Chief: Cliff Daniels   Standings: 2nd

No. 5 HendrickCars.com Patriotic Chevrolet Camaro ZL1   DARLINGTON DUB: Kyle Larson started last Sunday’s NASCAR Cup Series race at Darlington Raceway from the 18th position in the No. 5 HendrickCars.com Chevrolet Camaro ZL1 and wasted no time moving up through the field. He was in the top 10 by lap 27, finished the opening 115-lap stage in third and came in second in stage two. Prior to a caution on lap 311, Larson was maintaining a top-five position. Following a 10.110-second stop from the No. 5 pit crew, he earned the lead off pit road. From there, he led the final 55 laps and held off challenges on multiple restarts to earn the 299th Cup Series victory for Hendrick Motorsports.   EXTRA SPECIAL: Larson’s success in the opening race of the 2023 Cup Series playoffs locked him into the Round of 12 and earned the Hendrick Motorsports engine department its 500th NASCAR national series win. The victory is Larson and crew chief Cliff Daniels’ first Cup Series win at the prestigious South Carolina track. The 31-year-old’s victory at the track "Too Tough to Tame" tied him with Terry Labonte with 22 Cup Series career wins. Labonte’s 22nd win came 20 years ago at Darlington and was also in the Southern 500 in the No. 5. PLAYOFF STANDINGS: With the win at Darlington, the Elk Grove, California, native gained five playoff points to give him 22 to carry into the next round. In the driver point standings, Larson ranks second (2,074), just one point behind leader and teammate William Byron (2,075).  SEASON STATS: In 2023, Larson has scored the most top-five finishes (11) and holds the series’ best average starting position (9.93). He is the second-best driver on restarts, according to data from Racing Insights. In addition, Larson has the third-most laps led (679), is tied for the fourth-most top-10 finishes (13) and holds the fourth-best average running position (11.99). The driver of the No. 5 ranks fourth in both laps run in the top five (2,473) and top 10 (3,851).  100 WITH HENDRICK: Larson’s start on Sunday at Kansas Speedway will be his 100th Cup Series race with Hendrick Motorsports. He has a 16% winning percentage (16 wins in 99 starts) with the Rick Hendrick-owned organization. The 2021 Cup Series champion has the most wins before his 100th start for the storied organization and he ranks fourth on the team’s overall win list.  COMING BACK TO KANSAS: During this year’s spring race at Kansas, Larson was leading with one lap to go in the 400-mile race when contact with another competitor on the back straightaway sent the No. 5 entry into the outside wall. Despite that, Larson was still able to post a second-place finish. The 1.5-mile intermediate oval has historically been a strong track for Larson. In his 17 starts at the Sunflower state track, he has one win (in 2021), six top-five finishes, nine top-10s and 540 laps led. Three of those top-five finishes have come in Larson’s five starts at the track with Hendrick Motorsports. LEADING LAPS: Since the start of 2021, only five drivers have led at least 100 laps at the Kansas City venue. Larson leads the pack, pacing the field for 376 laps. When ranking his most laps led by track, Kansas stands fourth on the list (540) behind Dover Motor Speedway (899), Bristol Motor Speedway (850) and Darlington (770).  HOT AT 1.5-MILE TRACKS: In 19 starts on 1.5-mile tracks with Hendrick Motorsports, Larson leads the series in wins (five), runner-up finishes (five), top-fives (11), stage wins (13), laps led (1,791) and average finish (8.26). His 15 top-10 finishes are tied for the best mark in the series. In the Next Gen era (since 2022), Larson has scored the third-most points (366). Note: Races at Atlanta Motor Speedway since 2022 are excluded in this count of 1.5-mile tracks.  FOUR TIRES FAST: The No. 5 HendrickCars.com pit crew has the fourth-fastest average four-tire stop time of 11.244 seconds. Their four-tire stop of 9.281 seconds on lap 93 in June's race at Nashville Superspeedway is the fourth-fastest four-tire stop of the season. The team’s five-man over-the-wall crew consists of Blaine Anderson (front-tire changer), R.J. Barnette (tire carrier), Brandon Harder (fueler), Brandon Johnson (jackman) and Calvin Teague (rear-tire changer). HENDRICKCARS.COM IS HOME: The Kansas playoff race marks the 11th home race for the HendrickCars.com team this season. Kansas is home to five Hendrick Automotive Group dealerships. Respectively, the No. 5 driver and crew can be found in their white fire suits this weekend. For every HendrickCars.com home race this season (15 total) there is a unique hat, released the week of the race and only available for sale at the trackside merchandise haulers or available to win on HendrickCars.com. Less than 100 of each limited-edition hat will be made available to the public. This week’s Kansas hat will be revealed Thursday and can be viewed here.  RECOGNIZING A CANCER HERO: This weekend, the Martin Truex Jr. Foundation and The NASCAR Foundation Honor a Cancer Hero initiative will take place at Kansas. Last year’s program generated over $110,000 for the cause. The No. 5 team is honoring Stephanie Kearns, a breast cancer survivor, wife, mother of two and Anaheim, California, native. Kearns’ favorite NASCAR driver is Larson and she is a long-time fan of Hendrick Motorsports. Kearns’ name will be displayed over the driver-side door in place of Larson’s to honor her brave battle.  Kyle Larson, driver of the No. 5 Chevrolet Camaro ZL1, on his focus for the rest of the Round of 12: "I would say leading into the playoffs I had really no confidence in myself. I think having a good run at Darlington (Raceway) helps but it’s only one weekend. I’m not going to get too far ahead of myself. I want to focus on putting some solid weeks together. I know we are capable of it. We’ve done it before. I just want to remind myself that I can do it consistently and I know that we can do it consistently. There are some good tracks for us coming up and hopefully we can get that confidence up and build some momentum. We got off to a good start. I hope we can keep it rolling here at Kansas (Speedway)." Cliff Daniels, crew chief of the No. 5 Chevrolet Camaro ZL1, on the No. 5 team's task for the rest of the Round of 12: "It was such a special moment to get the win (at Darlington Raceway). I think all of us would want to spend a little more time enjoying it. As grateful as we are to have had the day that we did (last) Sunday, that’s the nature of the playoffs and we are really eyes forward to making sure we take advantage of the next nine weeks. Our work is not done. We still have a few points in Kansas and (at) Bristol (Motor Speedway) that we need to go get. We need to put our best foot forward and we’ve got to keep doing that for the next nine weeks. The job is far from complete."

Chase Briscoe is 300/1 to win 2023 Hollywood Casino 400

 

CHASE BRISCOE Kansas Advance No. 14 Mahindra Tractors Ford Mustang for Stewart-Haas Racing

Event Overview

●  Event:  Hollywood Casino 400 (Round 28 of 36) ●  Time/Date:  3 p.m. EDT on Sunday, Sept. 10 ●  Location:  Kansas Speedway in Kansas City ●  Layout:  1.5-mile oval ●  Laps/Miles:  267 laps/400.5 miles ●  Stage Lengths:  Stage 1: 80 laps / Stage 2: 85 laps / Final Stage: 102 laps ●  TV/Radio:  USA / MRN / SiriusXM NASCAR Radio

Notes of Interest

● Chase Briscoe and the No. 14 Mahindra Tractors Ford Mustang team for Stewart-Haas Racing head to Kansas Speedway in Kansas City for the NASCAR Cup Series’ second stop of the season at the 1.5-mile oval. Briscoe owns five starts at Kansas with a best finish of 13th earned in the playoff race there last September.   ● 100th Start. Briscoe is set to make his milestone 100th Cup Series start Sunday. He made his Cup Series debut on Feb. 14, 2021, at Daytona (Fla.) International Speedway, earned his first win March 13, 2022, at Phoenix Raceway and reached the Round of 8 in the 2022 playoffs. In his 99 career starts, he’s collected nine top-fives, 19 top-10s and two poles.   ● Prior to Briscoe’s Cup Series debut, he had only competed on pavement in 133 races across the ARCA Menards Series, the former K&N West Series, the NASCAR Truck Series and the NASCAR Xfinity Series. Briscoe jumped straight from dirt cars to ARCA and, just last weekend at Florence (S.C.) Motor Speedway, he competed in his second pavement Late Model race. Briscoe drove his Mahindra Tractors-sponsored Chad Bryant Racing entry to a second-place finish.   ● Briscoe owns a pair of top-three finishes in four NASCAR Xfinity Series starts at Kansas, including a win in the opening race of the Round of 8 during the 2020 playoffs. He also placed fifth in his first of two NASCAR Truck Series starts at Kansas in May 2017.   ● Briscoe won the 2016 ARCA Menards Series finale at Kansas after starting from the pole. He led twice for a race-high 67 laps to secure the victory by 1.464 seconds over Austin Cindric. His 14 top-fives and 18 top-10s in 20 ARCA races that year helped him clinch the championship in his rookie season.

Chase Briscoe, Driver of the No. 14 Mahindra Tractors Ford Mustang for Stewart-Haas Racing:

What are your takeaways as you approach your 100th start in the Cup Series? “It’s definitely crazy to think we’re already at a hundred, especially when you think that you’re just dreaming and hoping to get one. It seems like such a big number, but it’s come on pretty quickly. Having a win in my first 100 starts is cool, but at the same time I feel like I’ve given a couple more away. It is pretty unbelievable when you think about how I barely had 100 starts in a stock car or truck before I made it to Cup and now I’ve reached 100 in Cup. I feel like I’ve learned a ton in the first 100 starts and I’m looking forward to 100 more and what comes with that.”   We’ve seen a lot of speed out of the No. 14 team the last few weeks before something gets in the way of a finish that reflects that. Do you feel encouraged by the progress that’s been made? “Yeah, we’re definitely seeing improvement. I wish we had the results to reflect that, but we can look back and see that we are making progress and things are coming together. We just have to figure out how to close it out. We’ve had some weird things happen, like the lugnut at Watkins Glen, and some cautions that haven’t gone our way, but overall, it’s definitely encouraging to see we’re headed in the right direction toward the end of the season.”   Last Friday, you competed in your second Late Model race with Chad Bryant Racing and earned a second-place finish for Mahindra Tractors. Do you feel like going back to the grassroots level for that track time you didn’t really get in your development is a benefit to you?  “I’ve always said, to be the best stock-car drivers, we need to be able to compete in any kind of car on any surface. I didn’t do any pavement racing growing up, so it’s been fun to get to do some of that now. I don’t know how much I learn. I feel like I do get something out of it just by staying in race mode and getting the experience of racing against different drivers, but for me it’s been a lot of fun to get in something new and run well.”