Saturday, September 24, 2016

Final New Hampshire Driver Ratings and Betting Notes

Kyle Larson is super-fast this weekend at New Hampshire.
Kyle Larson captured his first career Sprint Cup win four weeks ago at Michigan and the 24 year old from Elk Grove, CA looks like he wants another one based on his dominating practices at New Hampshire Motor Speedway. He posted the fastest speeds in all three sessions and will start sixth in Sunday's New England 300.

Larson has shown speeds similar to his display this weekend ever since his rookie campaign, but the big difference now in the eyes of Las Vegas bookmakers is that he's got a win under his belt. He now has respect and it reflects in his odds where he used to be 20-to-1 weekly before the win, but is now 10-to-1 and seen as one of NASCAR's small group of elite drivers.

In the July 17 race at New Hampshire, Larson finished 17th, but showed during his rookie campaign of 2014 that if given a solid car he could produce great results. He was third in his first start there and runner-up in the fall. He's never had a car this fast at New Hampshire, though. His stellar practices on Friday and Saturday were his best of the season at any track.

He is the top candidate this week to derail the Joe Gibbs Racing express which has won the past three races on the schedule and 14 of 27 races this season. The last Chevrolet to win on the flat one-mile layout was nine races ago with Kasey Kahne in the summer of 2012.

RELEVANT DATA TO FOLLOW
In addition to looking at results from the July New Hampshire race when handicapping, you can also throw in to the mix what happened at Phoenix in March and also the two Richmond races. Although the three tracks are configured differently, they're all similar on the basis of being flat and almost the same distance. If a driver is good at one track, they'll likely be good on the other. Crew chiefs often use the same chassis at all three tracks during the season if having success.

JUST HOW GOOD IS GIBBS?
The Westgate SuperBook has all five of the Gibbs equipped cars at odds of 7-to-1 or less if that gives any insight to how good this team is. They've won the past three races on these type of tracks: Carl Edwards at Richmond in April, Matt Kenseth at New Hampshire and Denny Hamlin at Richmond two weeks ago. They've also won the past three races at New Hampshire: Kenseth won the last two and Kyle Busch won the summer race last year. Hamlin also won in 2012 and Kenseth in 2013 giving Gibbs a win in five of the past eight New Hampshire races. In the 10-consecutive lap category during Saturday's early practice, Martin Truex Jr. had the top time followed by three of his teammates. In the final session, Edwards was best. Gibbs is tied with Hendrick Motorsports for most wins (seven) all-time at New Hampshire.

FREAKY FAST CHASSIS
Harvick had the second fastest 10-consecutive lap average during the final practice session and is a driver to definitely consider just based on his chassis alone. All this chassis does is finish strong no matter what track it runs on. Seven of its nine career starts from 2015 and 2016 have been fourth or better, which includes runner-up three times and two Phoenix wins. Harvick was already listed as one of the favorites (6/1) on the basis of doing well on these type of tracks before the team press release came out on Thursday detailing the chassis dominance. His only New Hampshire win came in 2006 and he's finished fourth or better in three of his past four starts there. After finishing 20th last week at Chicago, he sits 13th in points after one Chase race. This chassis alone should give the team extreme confidence to capture at least a top-five finish.


Micah Roberts' Sprint Cup Driver Ratings
New England 300
New Hampshire Motor Speedway
Sunday, September 25, 2016 - 11:16 am PT

RATING  DRIVER    ODDS                  PRACTICE 1        QUALIFIED .        PRACTICE 2          PRACTICE 3
 1. Carl Edwards 6/1                    4th               1st                6th                 4th
No wins (24 starts), but starts from pole and had fastest 10-consecutive lap average in practice 3.
 2. Kyle Larson 10/1                    1st                6th               1st                 1st
Finished third and second as a rookie in 2014; the kid is super fast and has tons of momentum. 
 3. Kevin Harvick 6/1                   3rd              19th               9th                 9th 
2016 winner, 13.4 average; using stout chassis that won at Phoenix in March past two seasons. 
 4. Kyle Busch 6/1                     10th              12th               8th                 8th
Two-time winner, the last coming in 2015; second or better in four of his last seven visits. 
 5. Matt Kenseth 6/1                  11th                8th               3rd                 7th
Three-time winner, including last two visits; second-best 10-consecutive lap average in practice 2.
 6. Denny Hamlin 7/1                   7th                5th               4th                 2nd
Two-time winner, track-best 10.1 average finish. Currently on run of nine straight top-10 finishes. 
 7. Martin Truex Jr. 5/1                5th               2nd               2nd                 6th
No wins (21 starts), but in great form right now; fastest 10-consecutive lap average in practice 2.
 8. Chase Elliott 12/1                   2nd              10th               5th                11th  
Poor finish (34th) in July, but his mid-summer slump is over after a third at Chicago last week. 
 9. Joey Logano 15/1                   13th             15th              14th               13th 
Two-time winner, inlcuding his first career Cup win in 2009; top-10s in last six on schedule.
10. Jimmie Johnson 10/1             16th               4th                7th                 5th
Three-time winner with 10.5 average finish in 29 starts. Hasn't won since March at Fontana.

Note: The flat 1-mile layout of New Hampshire requires a similar set-up to Phoenix and Richmond, which makes results from the previous four races between those tracks this season a great handicapping tool for Sunday. The first New Hampshire race of season was run on July 17.

Odds courtesy of Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook.

Micah Roberts, a former sports book director, has been been setting NASCAR lines in Las Vegas since 1994. Follow on Twitter @MicahRoberts7

Tuesday, September 20, 2016

New Hampshire Motor Speedway Track Facts: 2016 New England 300

Expect Gibbs to be very good this weekend.
Chase Fast Facts: New Hampshire

·         This is the sixth year in a row the Chase for the NASCAR Sprint Cup second race has been held at New Hampshire Motor Speedway (2011 – 2016). New Hampshire was the first race of the Chase from 2004 – 2010.
·        
NHMS Chase Race Winners
Winners
Starting Position
Season
Matt Kenseth
13
2015
Joey Logano
7
2014
Matt Kenseth
9
2013
Denny Hamlin
32
2012
Tony Stewart
20
2011
Clint Bowyer
2
2010
Mark Martin
14
2009
Greg Biffle
9
2008
Clint Bowyer
1
2007
Kevin Harvick
1
2006
Ryan Newman
13
2005
Kurt Busch
7
2004

Eight tracks that have hosted Chase races all 11 previous years – Loudon, Charlotte, Dover, Homestead, Kansas, Martinsville, Phoenix, & Talladega
·         10 different drivers have won the New Hampshire Chase races, but only two have multiple wins – Clint Bowyer(two) and Matt Kenseth (two).   
·         When New Hampshire was the opening race of the Chase (2004 – 2010) only once the race winner went on to win the title (2004). 
o    In 2004 (inaugural Chase), Kurt Busch started seventh and won the opening race of the Chase at New Hampshire, and went on to win the title.
·         Since New Hampshire moved to the second race in the Chase (2011 – 2015) only one driver that has won the event went on to win the title – Tony Stewart (2011). Stewart won five races in the 2011 Chase (series-record) including the first two (Chicago, New Hampshire).
·         The worst finish in a Chase race at New Hampshire by a driver that went on to win the title was by Jimmie Johnson in 2006 when he finished 39th. Last season’s champion Kyle Busch finished 37th in New Hampshire’s Chase race -  the second worst finish by a driver at NHMS that went on to win the title.
·         No non-Chase driver has ever won the Chase race at New Hampshire Motor Speedway.
·         Eight drivers have won the pole for New Hampshire’s Chase races – Brad Keselowski (two), Ryan Newman(two), Carl Edwards, Clint Bowyer, Jeff Gordon, Juan Pablo Montoya, Kevin Harvick and Tony Stewart(each have one).  


The NASCAR Sprint Cup Series 2016 Top 16 at New Hampshire Motor Speedway

Driver
Races
Poles
Wins
Top Fives
Top 10s
DNFs
Average Finish
Driver Rating
 
 
1
Martin Truex Jr
21
0
0
3
7
1
14
88.6
 
2
Brad Keselowski
14
3
1
5
8
0
10.7
99.8
 
3
Kyle Busch
23
2
2
8
12
0
14.2
97.2
 
4
Denny Hamlin
21
0
2
8
13
0
10.2
103.3
 
5
Joey Logano
16
0
2
6
8
2
15.2
82.3
 
6
Chase Elliott
1
0
0
0
0
0
34
79.4
 
7
Matt Kenseth
33
0
3
9
18
1
12.3
90.3
 
8
Jimmie Johnson
29
1
3
10
19
1
10.6
100.8
 
9
Carl Edwards
24
2
0
3
7
0
13.5
87.6
 
10
Kurt Busch
31
0
3
7
12
1
16.2
89.6
 
11
Jamie McMurray
27
0
0
4
7
3
19.9
72.2
 
12
Tony Stewart
34
1
3
15
19
2
12.2
103.0
 
13
Austin Dillon
5
0
0
0
1
0
13.6
73.9
 
14
Kevin Harvick
31
1
1
8
16
0
13.5
96.7
 
15
Kyle Larson
5
0
0
2
2
0
14
82.0
 
16
Chris Buescher
1
0
0
0
0
0
29
45.0
 
* – Based on last 23 races at New Hampshire Motor Speedway (2005 – 2016).



New Hampshire Motor Speedway Data
Season Race #: 28 of 36 (09-25-16)
Track Size: 1.058-mile
Banking/Turn 1 & 2: 2 to 7 degrees
Banking/Turn 3 & 4: 2 to 7 degrees
Banking/Frontstretch: 1 degree
Banking/Backstretch: 1 degree
Frontstretch Length:  1,500 feet
Backstretch Length:  1,500 feet
Race Length: 300 laps / 317.4 miles

Top 10 Driver Rating at New Hampshire
Jeff Gordon............................... 106.1
Denny Hamlin........................... 103.3
Tony Stewart............................ 103.0
Jimmie Johnson........................ 100.8
Brad Keselowski......................... 99.8
Dale Earnhardt Jr........................ 97.4
Kyle Busch................................. 97.2
Kevin Harvick.............................. 96.7
Ryan Newman............................ 90.5
Kasey Kahne.............................. 90.4
Note: Driver Ratings compiled from 2005-2016 races (23 total) among active drivers at New Hampshire Motor Speedway.

Qualifying/Race Data
2014 pole winner:
Carl Edwards, Toyota
137.980 mph, 27.604 secs. 09-25-15

2014 race winner:
Matt Kenseth, Toyota
106.480 mph, (02:58:51), 09-27-15

Track qualifying record:
Brad Keselowski, Ford
140.598 mph, 27.090 secs. 09-21-14

Track race record:
Jeff Burton, Ford
117.134 mph, (02:42:35), 07-13-97

New Hampshire Motor Speedway:
History
·         Groundbreaking for New Hampshire International Speedway, as New Hampshire Motor Speedway was originally named, was Aug. 13, 1989.
·         The 1.058-mile oval is located on approximately 1,200 acres; the multi-use complex is the largest sports facility in New England.
·         The first NASCAR Sprint Cup race was on July 11, 1993 – won by NASCAR Hall of Famer Rusty Wallace.
·         Speedway Motorsports, Inc. agreed to purchase New Hampshire International Speedway from Bob and Gary Bahre on January 11, 2008 and then renamed the track New Hampshire Motor Speedway.
Starts
·         There have been 43 NASCAR Sprint Cup Series races at New Hampshire Motor Speedway; one per year from 1993 through 1996 and two per year since.
·         173 drivers have competed in at least one NASCAR Sprint Cup Series race at New Hampshire Motor Speedway; 135 in more than one.
·         16 different drivers have made their first NSCS start at NHMS all-time, but only one of the 16 is an active championship contending NASCAR Sprint Cup Series driver: Joey Logano (9/14/08).
·         Ryan Newman leads the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series in average starting position at New Hampshire with a 9.862.

Poles
·         Mark Martin won the inaugural Coors Light pole at New Hampshire in 1993 with a speed of 126.871 mph. 
·         20 drivers have Coors Light poles at New Hampshire, led by Ryan Newman with seven.
·         Four active drivers have multiple poles at New Hampshire: Ryan Newman (seven), Jeff Gordon (four), Brad Keselowski (three) and Kyle Busch (two).

·         Five drivers have won consecutive Coors Light poles at New Hampshire: Ken Schrader (1997 sweep); Jeff Gordon (1998-1999); Rusty Wallace (1999-2000); Ryan Newman (twice – 2003-2004 and 2011 sweep); Juan Pablo Montoya (2009-2010).
·         Youngest New Hampshire Coors Light pole winner: Brian Vickers (07/17/2005 – 21 years, 8 months, 23 days).
·         Oldest New Hampshire Coors Light pole winner: Bill Elliott (07/21/2002 – 46 years, 9 months, 13 days).
·         Two drivers (all-time) have posted their first career NASCAR Sprint Cup Series Coors Light pole at New Hampshire Motor Speedway: Brad Keselowski (09/19/10) and Patrick Carpentier (06/27/2008).       

Wins
·         24 different drivers have won at New Hampshire Motor Speedway, led by Jeff Burton with four.
·         Eight active drivers have multiple wins at NHMS: Kurt Busch, Jeff Gordon, Jimmie Johnson, Ryan Newman, Tony Stewart (each have three); Kyle Busch, Clint Bowyer, Denny Hamlin and Joey Logano(each have two)
·         Three drivers have posted consecutive wins at New Hampshire Motor Speedway: Jimmie Johnson (2003 sweep), Kurt Busch (2004 sweep) and Matt Kenseth (2015 fall, 2016 spring). 
·         Youngest New Hampshire winner: Joey Logano (06/28/2009 – 19 years, 1 month, 4 days).
·         Oldest New Hampshire winner: Mark Martin (09/20/2009 – 50 years, 8 months, 11 days).
·         Hendrick Motorsports and Joe Gibbs Racing lead the series in wins at New Hampshire in the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series with nine each; followed by Roush Fenway Racing (seven), Team Penske (six), andRichard Childress Racing (four).
·         Five different manufacturers have won at New Hampshire; led by Chevrolet with 18 victories; followed by Ford(13), Toyota (seven), Dodge (three) and Pontiac (two).
·         Jeff Burton is the only driver to win the July race at New Hampshire Motor Speedway three consecutive years in a row (1997, ’98 and ’99)
·         Five of the 43 (11.6%) NASCAR Sprint Cup Series races at New Hampshire have been won from the Coors Light pole; the most recent was Ryan Newman in 2011.
·         The Coors Light pole is the most proficient starting position in the field, producing more winners (five) than any other starting position at New Hampshire.    
·         Eight of the 43 (18.6%) NASCAR Sprint Cup Series races at New Hampshire have been won from the front row: five from the pole and three from second-place.
·         23 of the 43 (53.4%) NASCAR Sprint Cup races at New Hampshire have been won from a top-10 starting position.
·         Nine of the 43 (20.9%) NASCAR Sprint Cup Series races at New Hampshire have been won from a starting position outside the top 20.
·         The deepest in the field that a race winner has started at New Hampshire is 38th, by Jeff Burton in 1999.
·         The deepest in the field that an active race winner has started at New Hampshire is 32nd, by Kurt Busch in the summer of 2003.
·         Jamie McMurray and Casey Mears lead the series among active drivers with the most NASCAR Sprint Cup Series starts at New Hampshire without visiting Victory Lane at 27 each.
·         Five NASCAR Sprint Cup Series drivers have posted their first career win at New Hampshire Motor Speedway:Ryan Newman (09/15/02), Clint Bowyer (09/16/07), Joey Logano (06/28/09), Robby Gordon (11/23/01) andJoe Nemechek (09/19/99).

Additional Finishing Position Stats 
·         Tony Stewart leads the series in runner-up finishes at New Hampshire with six; followed by Jeff Gordon (five),Denny Hamlin (four), Kyle Busch and Mark Martin (with three each). 
·         Jeff Gordon leads the series in top-five finishes at New Hampshire with 16; followed by Tony Stewart with 15 and Jimmie Johnson with 10.   
·         Jeff Gordon leads the series in top-10 finishes at New Hampshire with 24; followed by Tony Stewart andJimmie Johnson with 19 each.
·         Jimmie Johnson leads NASCAR Sprint Cup Series in average finishing position at New Hampshire with a 10.190.
·         All 14 active NASCAR Sprint Cup Series race winners at New Hampshire Motor Speedway participated in at least one or more races before visiting Victory Lane. Ryan Newman and Joey Logano won at New Hampshire in their second appearance.     

Track Specific Stats
·         Since the advent of electronic scoring the closest margin of victory (MOV) in the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series at New Hampshire Motor Speedway was the July 1, 2007 race won by Denny Hamlin over Jeff Gordon with a MOV of 0.068 second.
·         17 of the 36 (47.2%) NSCS races scored by electronic scoring at New Hampshire Motor Speedway have had a Margin of Victory less than a second.
·         Four of the 43 NASCAR Sprint Cup Series races have resulted with a green-white-checkered finish at New Hampshire Motor Speedway (Scheduled No. of Laps/Actual No. of Laps): 2006 (300/308), 2013 (301/302), 2014 (301/302) and the Chase race 2014 (300/303).
·         Four of the 43 NASCAR Sprint Cup Series at New Hampshire Motor Speedway have been shortened due to weather conditions; the most recent was June 28, 2009 – the race was called on Lap 273, 28 circuits shy of the 301 scheduled laps.   

Track Specific Stats
·        
NHMS Top Five Lap Leaders
Active Drivers
Laps Led
Jeff Gordon
1,373
Tony Stewart
1,302
Ryan Newman
722
Kevin Harvick
698
Kyle Busch
689

Qualifying has been cancelled due to weather conditions in the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series at New Hampshire Motor Speedway five times: fall 2001, summer 2003, fall 2004, fall 2008 and summer 2009.  
·         Jeff Gordon leads the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series in laps led at New Hampshire with 1,373 laps led in 42 starts. 
·         Jeff Gordon leads the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series in laps completed at New Hampshire with 12,267 laps completed in 42 starts. 

Female Competitor Stats
·         Danica Patrick is the only female driver that has competed in the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series at New Hampshire Motor Speedway. She posted her best finish at NHMS earlier this season (14th).
Date
Driver
Starting Position
Finishing Position
Driver Rating
7/17/2016
Danica Patrick
29
14
64.0
9/27/2015
Danica Patrick
22
40
64.7
7/19/2015
Danica Patrick
20
24
56.7
9/21/2014
Danica Patrick
18
19
79.7
7/13/2014
Danica Patrick
29
22
60.9
9/22/2013
Danica Patrick
21
27
57.1
7/14/2013
Danica Patrick
32
37
47.7
Averages
24.4
26.1
61.5

NASCAR in New Hampshire
·         There have been 43 NASCAR Sprint Cup Series races in New Hampshire, all at NHMS.
Track Name
City
NSCS
NXS
NCWTS
New Hampshire Motor Speedway
Loudon
43
30
18

·         15 drivers that have made at least one start in a NASCAR national series have their home state recorded as New Hampshire; Jamie Aube is the only one of the 15 to record a victory in NASCAR national series competition. 
·         Aube won in the NASCAR XFINITY Series on July 12, 1987 at Oxford Plains Speedway in Oxford, ME; it was his only start that season.

NASCAR Sprint Cup Series Milestones
 
Drivers
Has
Needs
Milestones
Tony Stewart
49
1
Tie Ned Jarrett and Junior Johnson for 11th on all-time NSCS wins list
Kyle Busch
38
1
Tie Tim Flock for 18th on all-time NSCS wins list
Matt Kenseth
38
1
Tie Tim Flock for 18th on all-time NSCS wins list
Kevin Harvick
33
1
Break the tie with Fireball Roberts to become solely 22nd on all-time wins list
Kurt Busch
28
1
Tie Denny Hamlin for 25th on all-time NSCS wins list
Carl Edwards
27
1
Tie Rex White and Kurt Busch for 26th on all-time NSCS wins list
Jimmie Johnson
35
1
Tie Rusty Wallace and Rex White for 17th on all-time NSCS poles list
Kasey Kahne
27
1
Break the tie with Terry Labonte to become solely 25th on all-time NSCS poles list
Kevin Harvick
48
1
Break the tie with Lee Petty and become solely 10th on all-time NSCS second-place finishes list
Jimmie Johnson
324
1
Become the 13th driver in the NSCS to post 325 or more top-10 finishes
Tony Stewart
12,818
182
To become 11th NSCS driver all-time to lead 13,000 laps
Matt Kenseth
10872
128
To become 16th NSCS driver all-time to lead 11,000 laps
Kurt Busch
8,860
140
To become 20th NSCS driver all-time to lead 9,000 laps
    
Track Specific Milestones

 
Drivers
Has
Needs
Milestones
Kurt Busch
3
1
Tie Jeff Burton for the series most New Hampshire wins
Jimmie Johnson
3
1
Tie Jeff Burton for the series most New Hampshire wins
Ryan Newman
3
1
Tie Jeff Burton for the series most New Hampshire wins
Matt Kenseth
3
1
Tie Jeff Burton for the series most New Hampshire wins
Tony Stewart
3
1
Tie Jeff Burton for the series most New Hampshire wins
Hendrick Motorsports
9
1
Break the tie with JGR and become solely the series leader in wins at NHMS
Joe Gibbs Racing
9
1
Break the tie with HMS and become solely the series leader in wins at NHMS
Brad Keselowski
3
1
Tie Jeff Gordon for the second-most series poles at New Hampshire