Micah Roberts' Top-10 Finish Prediction: 2023 Toyota Owners 400 at Richmond

The seventh race of the unpredictable 2023 NASCAR Cup season takes us to Richmond Raceway, a type of flat track that aligns with New Hampshire Motor Speedway and Phoenix Raceway. If a driver does well on one of those tracks, they’ll likely do well on the other two tracks. The set-up requirements are very similar.

For a full write-up on Richmond, check out my Top-20 finish prediction on Sportsline.com.

Here’s what I’m thinking for Sunday’s Toyota Owners 400 with odds courtesy of Caesars sportsbooks:

1 #11 Denny Hamlin (8/1) - How can you not have some action on Hamlin this week? He grew up around the track his entire life living in nearby Chesterfield, VA, and has dominated the track with four wins, 17 top-fives, and 2,135 laps led. He also has three Xfinity wins. He won this race last season using a late pit strategy after leading only five laps. But the key for me is that he’s still with Joe Gibbs Racing and the issues they had turning the Toyota last season appear to be a thing of the past with Tyler Reddick showing the Toyota issues are all fixed. This track just suits him in every way.

2 #20 Christopher Bell (8/1) - In five Cup starts at Richmond he’s averaged a sixth-place finish which is the best among all active drivers. The three-quarter-mile flat layout has been one of his favorite tracks in the series and he made it clear when he won three of four at Richmond in the Xfinity Series in 2018-19.

3 #5 Kyle Larson (6/1) - His lone Cup win at Richmond came in 2017 when he led 53 laps. He was fifth in this race last season. He's been on the pole two of the last three Richmond races. This is a good track for him to run well at but he’s been disaster prone with just two top-10s this season in six races.

4 #4 Kevin Harvick (6/1) - He’s one of the best to ever do it at Richmond and this is his final season. He won at Richmond the last time he raced there last fall when his car got faster with each pit stop. He led 55 laps that day. In all, he has four Richmond wins, 17 top-fives, 29 top10s, and 1,235 laps led over 43 starts.

5 #24 William Byron (11/2) - His two best Richmond runs have come in this spring race the last two seasons with a seventh in 2021 and a third last season when he led 122 laps. The reason you might bet him this week is that he won at Phoenix three weeks ago.

6 #1 Ross Chastain (17/1) - He was 18th and 19th last season at Richmond after getting a career-best seventh in 2021, but the reason I like him this week is because of finishing runner-up at Phoenix in the spring last season and finishing third in the fall.

7 #45 Tyler Reddick (17/1) - His best finish was 11th during his first Cup race at Richmond in 2020. His success at Phoenix last season didn't coincide with doing well at Richmond. But he’s with an entirely new team with 23X11 Racing and he comes off a win last week at COTA.

8 #12 Ryan Blaney (15/1) - He has no top-fives in 13 Cup starts at Richmond, but it appears he’s warming up to the track in his last four starts finishing 11th or better in each. In this race last season he led the most laps (128) finishing seventh after starting from the pole.

9 #48 Alex Bowman (20/1) - He’s got the equipment with Hendrick and he’s had his two best finishes in this spring race the last two years.

10 #8 Kyle Busch (10/1) - He leads all active drivers with six Cup wins at Richmond to go along with 18 top-fives and 27 top-10s between 34 starts.

Denny Hamlin is 8/1 to win at Richmond

Denny Hamlin / No. 11 SHINGRIX Toyota Camry TRD Preview

Toyota Owners 400 at Richmond Raceway

 

No. 11 SHINGRIX Toyota Camry TRD News and Notes

• HOME SWEET HOME: Denny Hamlin grew up in nearby Chesterfield, Virginia and attended races at Richmond Raceway as a child. In his racing career, that hometown connection has provided Hamlin plenty of on-track success. He owns four NASCAR Cup Series victories at Richmond, including a win in last April’s Toyota Owners 400. His record at the .75-mile track also includes four consecutive top-five finishes and 10 top-fives in his past 12 starts dating back to September 2016. Hamlin has also earned three NASCAR Xfinity Series wins at Richmond.
• FRONT RUNNER: Hamlin’s 2,135 laps led at Richmond Raceway are the most of all active NASCAR Cup Series drivers. He ranks fifth on the all-time lap leader list at Richmond behind NASCAR Hall of Famers Richard Petty, Rusty Wallace, Bobby Allison, and Darrell Waltrip.
• 800 STARTS: Sunday will mark Hamlin’s 800th start across NASCAR’s three national series (Cup, Xfinity, Trucks). It will be his 621st race in the Cup Series to go with 163 starts in the Xfinity Series and 16 starts in the Craftsman Truck Series.
• COTA RECAP: Hamlin finished 16th in last weekend’s race at Circuit of the Americas after overcoming an early penalty, a mid-race spin, and a flat tire on a late-race restart.
• SHINGRIX: SHINGRIX will be featured as the primary sponsor of the No. 11 Toyota Camry TRD this weekend in Richmond. To learn more about SHINGRIX, visit www.shingrix.com.
• JGR AT RICHMOND: Joe Gibbs Racing owns 18 Cup Series wins at Richmond Raceway, including Hamlin’s victory last spring. In 159 combined starts, the organization has tallied 57 top-five finishes, 93 top-10s, seven pole awards, and 5,919 laps led at Richmond. In four Richmond races over the past two seasons, all four JGR teams have earned top-10 finishes in each race. Kyle Busch, Carl Edwards, Matt Kenseth, Tony Stewart, and Martin Truex Jr. join Hamlin on the list of drivers who have taken JGR to victory lane in Richmond.
• TUNE IN: Coverage of this weekend’s race at Richmond Raceway begins Sunday, April 2, at 3:30 p.m. ET on FOX Sports 1, MRN Radio, and SiriusXM NASCAR Radio.

 

Denny Hamlin, Driver of the No. 11 SHINGRIX Toyota Camry TRD

What is your outlook going to Richmond this weekend?

“I’m excited for Richmond – my hometown, some home cooking. We won the race last year. It’s my kind of race track, I love it. I think we should be pretty strong, I really do. It’s not always a fan favorite from an action perspective because it’s very similar to Atlanta where the race can get strung out. It’s one of those race the racetrack type of tracks, so there’s not a lot of beating and banging even though it’s less than a mile. I would say the best cars win there on a higher percentage than any other races. Some tracks fit drivers a little better than others and I feel like Richmond is one where I can make a little difference in what my car may not have.”

 

Hamlin NASCAR Cup Series Stats at Richmond Raceway

Starts	Wins	Top 5	Top 10	Poles	Laps Led	Avg. Start	Avg. Finish
32	4	17	21	3	2,135	9.3	8.4

 

Hamlin 2023 NASCAR Cup Series Season Stats

Starts	Wins	Top 5	Top 10	Poles	Laps Led	Avg. Start	Avg. Finish
6	0	0	2	0	41	13.3	13.2

 

Hamlin NASCAR Cup Series Career Stats

Starts	Wins	Top 5	Top 10	Poles	Laps Led	Avg. Start	Avg. Finish
620	48	208	323	36	13,395	12.0	13.2

 

Richmond NASCAR Betting Preview: 2021 Toyota Owners 400

 

NASCAR TOYOTA OWNERS 400 ANALYSIS

We’ve got some more NASCAR short track racing from Virginia on Sunday afternoon with the Toyota Owners 400 at Richmond Raceway’s ¾-mile flat D-shaped oval.

It races like a 1.5-mile speedway, but has all the bump and grind of short track racing that we all love.

TOYOTA OWNERS 400 BETTING RESOURCES

• Date: Sunday, April 18, 2021
• TV-Time: FOX, 3:00 p.m. ET
• Venue: Richmond Raceway
• Location: Richmond, Virginia

Last week the series was at Martinsville’s half-mile flat paperclip layout won by Martin Truex Jr. -- the 7/2 favorite -- for his second win of the season.

He’s the first driver to capture two wins after eight races. More importantly, his two wins came with the 750 horsepower package, and even more importantly for this week, those wins were at the flat tracks of Phoenix and Martinsville.

Those two serve as the perfect barometer to help in this week’s wagering strategies.

When I first started creating NASCAR odds in the early 90s, an easy trick I used always worked when setting numbers for Phoenix, Richmond, and New Hampshire.

I saw where a few crew chiefs said they used the same chassis for all three tracks, or at least two of them, so what I did was basically use the results from one of those races to make the odds for the next.

It seemed like every year a driver would win on two of the three flat tracks similar in distance. Rusty Wallace, Terry Labonte, Davey Allison, Jeff Burton, Dale Earnhardt Jr., Kurt Busch, Kyle Busch, and Kevin Harvick all had super seasons at those three tracks.

If they did well on one, they did well on the others.

TOYOTA OWNERS 400 CONTENDERS

• Martin Truex Jr. +400
• Brad Keselowski +600
• Denny Hamlin +650
• Joey Logano +750
• Kyle Busch +800
• Chase Elliott +850
• More NASCAR Futures
• (Odds Subject to Change)

So it would make sense for this week that we review what happened at Phoenix Raceway on March 14 which displayed a few 'haves' and many more 'have-nots'.

Nine drivers that finished in the top-10 of Stage 1 finished in the top-10 of the race. Nine drivers that finished in the top-10 of stage 2 finished in the top-10 of the final results. There were 22 lead changes among nine drivers and seven cautions.

I remember it as an entertaining race with Joey Logano having the best car but Truex improving on each pit stop. Logano led a race-high 143 laps and gave up the lead for good with 24 laps to go. Truex would lead 64 laps, Ryan Blaney led 35 laps, and Denny Hamlin led 33 laps.

Joey Logano and the No. 22 team are expected to be contenders on Sunday when the NASCAR Cup Series heads to Richmond. (AP)

The Phoenix finishers were heavy hitters with Truex, Logano runner-up, Hamlin third again, with Brad Keselowski and Chase Elliott rounding out the top-five. Hamlin has finished third in all four races using the 750 HP package and has seven top-fives in the eight races on the season. He’s my choice to win this week.

“We can win any given week,” Hamlin said. “We just keep getting beat by one or two cars that have a little bit better balance. But we’re getting closer. There’s nothing saying we can’t win the next three races.”

HANDICAPPING NASCAR AT RICHMOND

HOMETOWN HERO?

Hamlin gets some home cooking this week as Richmond Raceway is 25 minutes from where he grew up in Chesterfield.

“It’s always great getting to race at my hometown track,” he said. “I’ve been fortunate to have had success at Richmond in my career, and I know my team and I are excited for the challenge ahead this weekend to hopefully get a win.”

The best price I’ve seen on Hamlin this week is +555 at Circa Sports while William Hill is offering 5/1 odds.

In 28 Richmond starts, he leads all active drivers with 1,704 laps led. He also has three wins, 13 top-fives, and averaged a 9th-place finish. His last win came from the pole in the 2016 fall race. He had seven wins last season, but none through the first eight races. He’ll be more aggressive this week and not let the win slip away as he has a few times already this season. Or at least that’s how I feel about it.

JGR + RICHMOND = SUCCESS

Hamlin’s teammate Kyle Busch is the best active driver at Richmond, or at least his stats say so. In 30 starts, he has six wins, 18 top-fives, 23 top-10s, 1,488 laps led. I love his William Hill odds at 10/1, but he’s shown me nothing in 2020 or 2021 that he’s fast enough to win with this week’s package. All his Gibbs teammates have been much better with the package.

The actual best Richmond driver now is another Gibbs driver, Truex, who is being offered by Circa Sports at +465 odds. He’s led 106 laps or more in six of the last eight Richmond races. Five of those races ended in top-five finishes, two of them wins (2019). He was runner-up last season. He also won at Phoenix last month, perhaps the best barometer for predicting Richmond.

Two of those three Gibbs drivers don’t have a win yet, but the fourth driver Christopher Bell does. He won with this week’s race package at the Daytona road course, was ninth at Phoenix, and seventh last week at Martinsville. He’s got great stuff as his teammates do, but William Hill is offering him at 28/1 odds as if he doesn’t. He’s worth investing a few bucks to win this week based also on his three Richmond wins in the Xfinity Series.

READ MORE HERE....TOP-5 PREDICTION ON VEGASINSIDER.COM

Kevin Harvick is 10/1 to win fourth Richmond Cup race

 

KEVIN HARVICK Richmond Advance No. 4 Hunt Brothers Pizza Ford Mustang for Stewart-Haas Racing     Event Overview   ●  Event:  Richmond 400 (Round 9 of 36) ●  Time/Date:  3 p.m. EDT on Sunday, April 18 ●  Location:  Richmond (Va.) Raceway ●  Layout:  .75-mile oval ●  Laps/Miles:  400 laps / 300 miles ●  Stage Lengths:  Stage 1: 80 laps / Stage 2: 155 laps / Final Stage: 165 laps ●  TV/Radio:  FOX / MRN / SiriusXM NASCAR Radio   Notes of Interest   ●  Kevin Harvick, driver of the No. 4 Hunt Brothers Pizza Ford Mustang for Stewart-Haas Racing, enters Sunday’s Richmond 400 NASCAR Cup Series race at Richmond (Va.) Raceway in a three-way tie for the second-most top-10 finishes this season. Harvick has scored six top-10s in the eight races held this year, tying him with Kyle Larson and William Byron. Only championship leader Denny Hamlin has more top-10s (seven). All four drivers finished in the top-10 in the series’ last race at Martinsville (Va.) Speedway.   ●  Harvick will be going with the flow Sunday at Richmond, Flowcode that is. The hood of Harvick’s No. 4 Hunt Brothers Pizza Ford Mustang will feature a 27.5-inch pizza-inspired, next-generation QR code from Flowcode, the offline to online company that builds direct connections for brands and consumers. The custom-branded, ultra-fast scanning Flowcode provides Hunt Brothers Pizza with an interactive activation. Just by opening up a smart phone’s camera and scanning the hood of Harvick’s No. 4 Hunt Brothers Pizza Ford Mustang whenever it’s prominently featured during FOX’s broadcast of the 400-lap race will give users a “Scan to Win” experience with instant and direct access to win prizes. The grand prize is two tickets to a NASCAR Cup Series race of the winner’s choosing during the 2021 or 2022 season. Twelve additional winners will receive a fan pack loaded with Harvick and Hunt Brothers Pizza merchandise including T-shirts, hats, floor mats, racing flags and koozies. Viewers can scan the Flowcode directly from their TV screen. There’s no need to hit pause on the racing action. The “Scan to Win” Flowcode will also be featured on the in-car camera that Harvick will carry with him during the Richmond 400.   ●  Harvick has made 726 career NASCAR Cup Series starts, with 119 of those starts coming on short tracks. And of his 58 Cup Series wins, seven have been at short tracks, with Richmond accounting for three of those victories. Harvick scored his first Richmond win in September 2006, his second in September 2011 and his third in April 2013.   ●  Harvick joined SHR in 2014 and has since recorded 35 of his 58 career NASCAR Cup Series wins. However, none of them have been at Richmond. But Harvick has remained stout at the .75-mile oval. In his last 13 starts at Richmond as a member of SHR, Harvick has two runner-up finishes, eight top-fives and 10 top-10s. He has never finished outside the top-15.    ●  Harvick has led 15,582 total laps in his NASCAR Cup Series career, with 1,180 of those laps coming at Richmond.   ●  The Richmond 400 will mark Harvick’s 40th NASCAR Cup Series start at the Virginia short track. His first start came on May 5, 2001. That race was won by SHR co-owner Tony Stewart, who beat then three-time champion Jeff Gordon by .372 of a second. Harvick finished 17th. It was Harvick’s 10th career Cup Series start and nine of the 43 drivers in that race have since been inducted into the NASCAR Hall of Fame – Stewart, Gordon, Rusty Wallace, Dale Earnhardt Jr., Mark Martin, Dale Jarrett, Ron Hornaday Jr., Bill Elliott and Terry Labonte.   ●  Harvick is the winningest NASCAR Xfinity Series driver at Richmond with seven victories. (Kyle Busch is next best with six wins.) Harvick finished among the top-10 in all but six of his 21 career Xfinity Series starts at Richmond.   Kevin Harvick, Driver of the No. 4 Hunt Brothers Pizza Ford Mustang for Stewart-Haas Racing   Short-track etiquette – what’s OK and what isn’t in this day and age? “It depends on how mad you are. I think a lot of that just depends on the situation. When you’re not running well, there’s a lot more that’s OK in your mind because the day’s screwed up anyway and you feel like you want to run into somebody just to take your aggression out on the day. A lot of that just depends on who you’re racing and how that guy’s raced you that day, if you’ve had trouble and you’re trying to get back to the front and it’s late in the race, or at the end of a stage – it’s just different things at different times that are OK. In the end, it’s just like every other race, you’ve got to somehow be able to get to the finish with the best result you can get that day.”   Where did you learn short-track etiquette, and is it still applicable today? “It’s applicable, and a lot of times there are still a lot of guys who don’t apply it and they wind up getting themselves in trouble – tearing their cars up and putting themselves in a bad spot. I think part of our success is being able to race like that when we need to race like that and understanding how that works. In my book, it’s just being smart. In today’s day and age, a lot of it is just go as hard as you can go and screw the other guy. In the end, there are a lot of guys who think that way, but there are a lot of guys who tear their stuff up, too. So, it’s a fine line, but you have to go on the restarts in today’s world. You have to just throw caution to the wind on the restarts because that’s when most of it happens. Once we get strung out and get to the racing part of it, that’s usually when you have to apply some of that and there is some give-and-take. But on the restarts, I would say all those rules go out the window because of how important the restarts are in today’s world.”   Who were the elder statesmen you learned from when you started racing in the NASCAR Cup Series? “A lot of that I would credit to Richard Childress just because of the fact he put so much emphasis on finishing races. I think most of that comes from the RCR mentality when I started of you have to finish the race, no matter what the cost or what you have to do, you have to finish the race. I would say that’s where most of that came from.”   What is it about short tracks that makes you passionate about racing? “I’ve been fortunate to be able to do a lot of things and, really, the thing that’s made me most passionate lately is racing with my son, Keelan, just because of the fact it makes me realize why I love racing. And being able to go and see people learn and being able to help people – that’s something I really enjoy, not only with Keelan, but being able to help the other kids. Sometimes it’s just the simplest things like steering wheel height, or pedal height – there are so many little things you do on a daily basis that you don’t even think about anymore. That has really reminded me why I love racing and why I love what I do. But being able to share that knowledge with people, whether it’s go-karters, or Cup racers, or whoever it is, that’s something I get a lot of satisfaction out of.”   When you provide help like that, does it give someone who maybe was uncomfortable in a racecar an “aha” moment? “It’s steps, right? Whatever that situation is, it gets them comfortable to be able to progress to their next ‘aha’ moment. In the progression, there are a whole bunch of those moments that lead to a point where you can race at a high level. When you look at Brent Crews, who’s won like 12 national karting championships and is now running midgets and sprint cars, it’s obvious he can drive. He’s an amazing talent who can do anything he wants to do, as long as he learns how to be a professional. In going from the short-track side of things and the dirt side of things, whatever you race, that step when you get to whatever it is from the Cup side, the Xfinity side, the Truck Series, even on down into the K&N and ARCA stuff, it’s really about learning how to be a professional, and that comes with doing the sponsor stuff, it comes with being able to speak well, it comes with how to handle yourself on social media and off the racetrack, and looking at data when it comes to being inside the car and being able to communicate with your crew chief and your team and the people around you. There are so many elements to it, and when you look at a kid like Brent, he’s got all the talent, he’s going to be able to be taught how to drive whatever it is he has to drive. It’s how does he handle all those things outside the driving side of it that really makes or breaks you when you get to a high level of racing.”   You mentioned the sponsor side of the sport – can you talk about your longstanding relationship with Hunt Brothers Pizza, as the 2021 season marks the 12th year of your partnership with them? “Our fans are pretty loyal to the brands that are on our cars. Many of my pictures come from the standees in the store. People take selfies next to them. There are a number of reasons you have sponsorships – you want that brand recognition, the brand integration. Hunt Brothers Pizza is a very family-oriented company and we’re a very family-oriented group. Those relationships you build through the years with brands that recognize and reflect what you believe in are few and far between. We’ve grown with the Hunt Brothers Pizza brand. They’ve grown with us and been very loyal to us and I think our fans are very loyal to Hunt Brothers Pizza. It’s fun to see that brand recognition and that understanding of loyalty and partnership. You realize how many Hunt Brothers Pizza stores there are as you drive to racetracks.”   (Hunt Brothers Pizza is the nation’s largest brand of made-to-order pizza in the convenience store industry and has sponsored Harvick for years in the NASCAR Xfinity Series and NASCAR Camping World Truck Series. Hunt Brothers Pizza joined Harvick fulltime in the NASCAR Cup Series in 2019 and has been a mainstay in NASCAR’s premier division ever since. With more than 7,800 locations in 30 states, Hunt Brothers Pizza offers original and thin-crust pizzas available as a grab-and go Hunk, perfect for today’s on-the-go lifestyle or as a customizable whole pizza that is an exceptional value with All Toppings No Extra Charge®. Celebrating 30 years of serving great pizza to convenience store shoppers through its store partners, Hunt Brothers Pizza is headquartered in Nashville, Tennessee, and is family owned and operated. To find a Hunt Brothers Pizza location near you, download the app by visiting app.HuntBrothersPizza.com.)   No. 4 Hunt Brothers Pizza Team Roster

Primary Team Members   Driver: Kevin Harvick Hometown: Bakersfield, California   Crew Chief: Rodney Childers Hometown: Mooresville, North Carolina   Car Chief: Robert “Cheddar” Smith Hometown: Whitewater, Wisconsin   Engineer: Dax Gerringer Hometown: Gibsonville, North Carolina   Engineer: Stephen Doran Hometown: Butler, Pennsylvania   Spotter: Tim Fedewa Hometown: Holt, Michigan Over-The-Wall Members   Front Tire Changer: Shayne Pipala Hometown: Frankfort Square, Illinois   Rear Tire Changer: Daniel Smith Hometown: Concord, North Carolina   Tire Carrier: Jeremy Howard Hometown: Delhart, Texas   Jack Man: Stan Doolittle Hometown: Ninety Six, South Carolina   Fuel Man: Evan Marchal Hometown: Westfield, Indiana Road Crew Members   Mechanic: Richie Bean Hometown: Bradford, Vermont   Tire Specialist: Jamie Turski Hometown: Trumbull, Connecticut   Engine Tuner: Robert Brandt Hometown: Mobile, Alabama   Transporter Co-Driver: Rick Hodges Hometown: Raleigh, North Carolina   Transporter Co-Driver: Stephen Mitchell Hometown: Woodville, Ohio