Micah Roberts' Top-10 Finish Prediction: 2023 Quaker State 400 at Atlanta

Read my full Atlanta article at Sportsline.com

1 #9 Chase Elliott (10/1) - He won at his home track last season for the first time after leading a race-high 96 laps. His 11.3 average finish is the best among active drivers with at least two starts. I like him to win this race because of desperation. His snowboarding accident cost him six early-season races and he hasn’t been able to make up the difference despite NASCAR giving him a break if he wins one race before the cutoff date. Home cooking, desperate for a win to make the playoffs, it’s all there.

2 #1 Ross Chastain (17/1) - There have been three races at Atlanta using the superspeedway race package as they use at Daytona and Talladega and he’s led in all three of those races. Last season he was runner-up in both Atlanta races and this season he was 13th in March. This is a good spot for him to win and I like his odds at Caesars as well.

3 #6 Brad Keselowski (12/1) - Come on Caesars, he hasn’t even won the last two seasons. How about some 20-to-1 odds to win? Why protect a driver that doesn’t win? Why put a closed sign on him to win? If you see Keselowski at 12-to-1, it’s a strong pass. So my first suggestion is to find some better odds that give the bettors something to work with. Anyway, he’s a two-time winner at Atlanta but what I Like most about him this week is he was second in the March Atlanta race and led 47 laps. This has always been a track he’s been good at.

4 #24 William Byron (14/1) - He’s been waiting for this after going through a dry spot on the schedule. It’s been six races since he won a series-leading third win (tied with Kyle Busch) at Darlington. That win came in a scramble of four straight top-fives after another drought on the schedule. He’s been 14th or better in his last five starts. He won at Atlanta in the spring 2022 race after leading 111 laps. Good price on him this week too.

5 #12 Ryan Blaney (12/1) - I can’t figure him out. He’s got his Coca-Cola 600 win at Charlotte, the sister track of Atlanta, and he’s got four top-fives and nine top-10s. He’s going to make the playoffs now so he’s got to be point hunting, playoff point hunting. He’s going to try and win this race as he did in 2021. He’s led six of his last seven starts at Atlanta and was seventh in the March race.

6 #20 Christopher Bell (16/1) - He’s led laps in two of his last three starts at Atlanta and posted a career-best third place at Atlanta in March, one of his five top-fives this season.

“Atlanta has been a good place for the No. 20 group since the reconstruction of it,” Bell said. “I hope we can continue the momentum. The regular season Championship is heating up.”

7 #7 Corey LaJoie (25/1) - I was hoping for higher odds but the word out is that this is his best race package with Atlanta being his best fit. He was fourth this season in March and was also fifth last spring. But it was last fall when he was leading late at Atlanta that we all thought he had a shot to win his first career Cup race. He finished 21st after leading 17 laps. He’s oozing with confidence with it being Atlanta week.

8 #45 Tyler Reddick (25/1) - He had poor finishes last season at Atlanta but led laps in both and his finishes don’t tell the full story. Fast forward to March of this season early in his run in the 23x11 No. 45, the same car that Kurt Busch finished third with at Atlanta last spring, and Reddick finished fifth. Caesars is giving out nice odds on him to win this week.

9 #23 Bubba Wallace (25/1) - He doesn’t have any top-10s at Atlanta and has led only three laps in his eight starts there, which I find surprising especially in the last three using the superspeedway race package. He needs a win in 2023 and this might be it. Right now, he's in 15th positions in points, but he doesn't have much wiggle room for error.

10 #10 Aric Almirola (30/1) - I’ll have a small bet on him because I don’t want to be that guy when he’s leading, saying, “Dang, I wish I had a couple bucks on him.” I’ve done that twice in the last two years at Atlanta with him when he led laps. His best in the last three with the superspeedway package was eighth last fall, and I’ll bet he really likes Atlanta.

“I have always enjoyed going to Atlanta,’ Almirola said. “It has been a place that we are so fast as a race team. It’s been a place where we have led a lot of laps recently and I look forward to going there knowing we can put ourselves in a position to win. Unfortunately, both times we have led laps we have been wrecked out or cut a tire from the lead toward the end of the race. Things have to go our way, eventually, and I know we can put ourselves back in that position again this weekend.”

 

Micah Roberts' Top-10 Finish Prediction: 2023 Grant Park 220 on Chicago Streets

Check out my full article on the Chicago race at Sportsline.com

1 #19 Martin Truex Jr. (7/1) - He just won at Sonoma leading a race-high 51 laps. His car dominated the end of the race. It was the best set-up he had with a JGR Toyota in the last 10 road races. It was his first top-five in his last 10 road races and also the first time he’s led a lap in his last 10 road races. The roads become more important in today’s NASCAR that Toyota has made huge grounds in setting up a quality ride. They had the best two cars at Sonoma, not by accident, but by making huge grounds in their road racing program. Truex has five road course wins now and might have six by the end of Saturday. He should be the favorite to win this race.

2 #45 Tyler Reddick (13/2) - He’s won three of the last six races on road courses and has led laps in five of his last six. The Toyota brand was on point for his car at COTA but finished 33rd at Sonoma after a decent start. But he never really contended at Sonoma after finishing sixth in the first stage. So the question is will he be set up better than everyone like he was at COTA or do we get the Sonoma set up? He’s batting .500 in his last six road races, so the price is somewhat attractive.

3 #17 Chris Buescher (20/1) - The new car has been his biggest edge on the road courses. He knows what he needs to run well, explains it to his team, and they give him what he needs to compete for a win. His last seven road starts with the new car have seen him finish in the top-10. His consistency in performance and car set-up has been amazing. He was runner-up at Sonoma last season and was fourth this season. He also was eighth at COTA in March. All top-10s, in seven straight of anything, is pretty good, but seven road courses are something that deserves some betting attention.

4 #16 A.J. Allmendinger (10/1) - His two wins in the NASCAR Cup Series have come on road courses, the last coming at the Indy course in 2021. His last six road starts have been amazing with a ninth or better in five of his last six. He was sixth at Sonoma three weeks ago. A new course, he’ll have an edge with attitude, arrogance, and skill.

5 #8 Kyle Busch (12/1) - He might offer the best value with his price-to-performance road racing ratio this week. Can he win? Sure why not, he has three wins already this season. But how about road courses? He has four wins and 18 top-fives over his 49 road starts. How about this season? He has a runner-up each at COTA and Sonoma, two-for-two in second place. It’s obvious the edge on roads that Tyler Reddick had last season in the first year of the NextGen car is still an edge with Busch driving it.

6 #9 Chase Elliott (5/1) - He has the most glorious road racing resume in NASCAR with an eighth-place average finish, seven wins in 26 starts with 15 top-fives, and 470 laps led. But he hasn’t won in his last 10 road races. He hasn’t won the last seven races on road courses using the NextGen car and while it might make sense that NASCAR’s main character wins on a new street circuit I just haven’t seen it yet with the new car. So how can I bet him now as the 5-to-1 favorite to do something he hasn’t done yet? His time is ticking as the countdown to the playoffs behind and he needs a win to make it.

7 #5 Kyle Larson (7/1) - He’s won four of the last 13 road course events but most of that damage was done in 2021 with the old car. He’s only won one road race in his last eight starts, including two very mediocre performances this season. He didn’t lead a lap in his last three and five of his last six road events. His recent history suggests his true price is 18-to-1 so why would I take 7-to-1?

8 #99 Daniel Suarez (25/1) - Seeing his teammate win last week raised the bar for Trackhouse Racing. Now it’s Suarez’s turn and after winning at Sonoma last season he finished fifth at Road America and Watkins Glen. But he finished 27th at COTA and 22nd at Sonoma this season. I would need 35/1 odds to bet him to win.

9 #11 Denny Hamlin (30/1) - The reason you might bet him this week besides the attractive price is because his car was bad-fast at Sonoma when he won the pole and led the first 32 laps, won the first stage, and then got an accident to finish poorly. The top two cars there were JGR Toyotas. They’ve found something in the NextGen car to help them get a better balance in their road setups. Overall, he has one road win and 13 top-fives in 47 road starts.

10 #34 Michael McDowell (25/1) - He was discovered by NASCAR driving on road courses and he’s showing off his skills during his last seven road course races beginning with a third last season at Sonoma and a seventh this season at Sonoma. He’s been 12th or better in six of his last seven road course starts. He’s a player this week as his low odds indicate.

Micah Roberts' Top-10 Finish Prediction: 2023 Pala Casino 400 at Auto Club Speedway

Fontana’s 2-mile D-Shaped oval has banking at 15 degrees in turns and lots of room so while the race is on, drivers can search all around for their preferred line to maximize speed. Not a lot of junk cars win at Fontana. It’s littered with Cup champions as past winners. The cream rises to the top so it's something I had to keep in mind when betting this week.

I’m posting my top-10 selections with the full write-up and top-20 posted on Sportsline.com.

1 #5 Kyle Larson (5/1) - Has five of his 19 wins between sister tracks of Fontana and Michigan.

2 #45 Tyler Reddick (10/1) - High-line rim ridding is his game, led most laps (90) last season.

3 #22 Joey Logano (10/1) - In 15 Cup starts there he has seven top-fives, no wins yet.

4 #4 Kevin Harvick (18/1) - He’s got a better shot to win Sunday than half the 10 drivers Caesars posted as 10-to-1 favorites or less.

5 #8 Kyle Busch (10/1) - Active leader at Fontana in just about everything including wins (4), top-fives (11), top-10s (16), and laps led (807).

6 #1 Ross Chastain (10/1) - I think his two 2022 Las Vegas races (3rd and 2nd) where he led the most laps in each that have me liking him here at Fontana.

7 #12 Ryan Blaney (10/1) - Say it with me, Ryan, “I will not be a pushover in 2023.” He’s a cool dude, I like him, and wish him well.

8 #23 Bubba Wallace (30/1) - Strong contender because of what he did winning at Kansas on Sept. 11 and runner-up at Michigan on Aug. 7.

9 #43 Erik Jones (25/1) - He’s second-best among active drivers at Fontana with a 10th-place average finish, including a career-best third-place last season.

10 #11 Denny Hamlin (17/2) - No wins at Fontana, but he likes checking off his things-to-do list and Fontana is on that last.