Micah Roberts' Top-10 Finish Prediction: 2023 Quaker State 400 at Atlanta

Read my full Atlanta article at Sportsline.com

1 #9 Chase Elliott (10/1) - He won at his home track last season for the first time after leading a race-high 96 laps. His 11.3 average finish is the best among active drivers with at least two starts. I like him to win this race because of desperation. His snowboarding accident cost him six early-season races and he hasn’t been able to make up the difference despite NASCAR giving him a break if he wins one race before the cutoff date. Home cooking, desperate for a win to make the playoffs, it’s all there.

2 #1 Ross Chastain (17/1) - There have been three races at Atlanta using the superspeedway race package as they use at Daytona and Talladega and he’s led in all three of those races. Last season he was runner-up in both Atlanta races and this season he was 13th in March. This is a good spot for him to win and I like his odds at Caesars as well.

3 #6 Brad Keselowski (12/1) - Come on Caesars, he hasn’t even won the last two seasons. How about some 20-to-1 odds to win? Why protect a driver that doesn’t win? Why put a closed sign on him to win? If you see Keselowski at 12-to-1, it’s a strong pass. So my first suggestion is to find some better odds that give the bettors something to work with. Anyway, he’s a two-time winner at Atlanta but what I Like most about him this week is he was second in the March Atlanta race and led 47 laps. This has always been a track he’s been good at.

4 #24 William Byron (14/1) - He’s been waiting for this after going through a dry spot on the schedule. It’s been six races since he won a series-leading third win (tied with Kyle Busch) at Darlington. That win came in a scramble of four straight top-fives after another drought on the schedule. He’s been 14th or better in his last five starts. He won at Atlanta in the spring 2022 race after leading 111 laps. Good price on him this week too.

5 #12 Ryan Blaney (12/1) - I can’t figure him out. He’s got his Coca-Cola 600 win at Charlotte, the sister track of Atlanta, and he’s got four top-fives and nine top-10s. He’s going to make the playoffs now so he’s got to be point hunting, playoff point hunting. He’s going to try and win this race as he did in 2021. He’s led six of his last seven starts at Atlanta and was seventh in the March race.

6 #20 Christopher Bell (16/1) - He’s led laps in two of his last three starts at Atlanta and posted a career-best third place at Atlanta in March, one of his five top-fives this season.

“Atlanta has been a good place for the No. 20 group since the reconstruction of it,” Bell said. “I hope we can continue the momentum. The regular season Championship is heating up.”

7 #7 Corey LaJoie (25/1) - I was hoping for higher odds but the word out is that this is his best race package with Atlanta being his best fit. He was fourth this season in March and was also fifth last spring. But it was last fall when he was leading late at Atlanta that we all thought he had a shot to win his first career Cup race. He finished 21st after leading 17 laps. He’s oozing with confidence with it being Atlanta week.

8 #45 Tyler Reddick (25/1) - He had poor finishes last season at Atlanta but led laps in both and his finishes don’t tell the full story. Fast forward to March of this season early in his run in the 23x11 No. 45, the same car that Kurt Busch finished third with at Atlanta last spring, and Reddick finished fifth. Caesars is giving out nice odds on him to win this week.

9 #23 Bubba Wallace (25/1) - He doesn’t have any top-10s at Atlanta and has led only three laps in his eight starts there, which I find surprising especially in the last three using the superspeedway race package. He needs a win in 2023 and this might be it. Right now, he's in 15th positions in points, but he doesn't have much wiggle room for error.

10 #10 Aric Almirola (30/1) - I’ll have a small bet on him because I don’t want to be that guy when he’s leading, saying, “Dang, I wish I had a couple bucks on him.” I’ve done that twice in the last two years at Atlanta with him when he led laps. His best in the last three with the superspeedway package was eighth last fall, and I’ll bet he really likes Atlanta.

“I have always enjoyed going to Atlanta,’ Almirola said. “It has been a place that we are so fast as a race team. It’s been a place where we have led a lot of laps recently and I look forward to going there knowing we can put ourselves in a position to win. Unfortunately, both times we have led laps we have been wrecked out or cut a tire from the lead toward the end of the race. Things have to go our way, eventually, and I know we can put ourselves back in that position again this weekend.”

 

Las Vegas Driver Chassis Selections: 2015 Kobalt 400

Gordon using winning Brickyard/Michigan chassis

#3-Austin Dillon will pilot Chassis No. 477 in the Las Vegas 400 at Las Vegas Motor Speedway. In 2014, Dillon raced this Dow Energy & Water Chevrolet SS to a 24th-place finish at Dover in September, a 20th-place finish at Richmond in September and a 14th-place finish at New Hampshire in July.

#5-Kasey Kahne: Crew chief Keith Rodden has selected Hendrick Motorsports Chassis No. 5-888 for Sunday's race at Las Vegas. Most notably, in 2014, Kahne led 70 laps and finished sixth driving the chassis at Indianapolis Motor Speedway in July. He also raced it at Pocono Raceway in August, where he started 12th and finished 10th.

#15-Clint Bowyer: Chassis No. 812 serves as the primary chassis for Bowyer at Las Vegas, is is a brand new chassis. Chassis No. 816 serves as the back-up chassis and is new, was the backup in Atlanta.

#24-Jeff Gordon: Crew chief Alan Gustafson has selected Hendrick Motorsports Chassis No. 24-895 for this Sunday's Kobalt 400. Gordon raced the chassis to a record-breaking fifth Brickyard 400 victory in July, a win at Michigan International Speedway in August and a 14th-place finish at Kansas Speedway in October in 2014.

#27-Paul Menard will utilize chassis No. 480 for this weekend's 267-lap event at the 1.5-mile track in Las Vegas. This #27 Quaker State / Menards Chevrolet SS has four previous starts from the 2014 NASCAR Sprint Cup Series season including Indianapolis, Chicago, Charlotte and Homestead.

#31-Ryan Newman will pilot chassis No. 491 in Sunday's Las Vegas 400 at Las Vegas Motor Speedway. This #31 Caterpillar Chevy is a brand new car and will take to the track for the first time on Friday when the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series teams practice and qualify at the 1.5-mile speedway.

#32-Mike Bliss Crew Chief Clinton Cram will be bringing chassis 742, which will serve as the primary car. This chassis previously ran at the fall Texas event in 2014 with Joey Gase. Chassis 755 will serve as the backup car.

#33-Brian Scott will pilot chassis No. 460 in Sunday's Las Vegas 400. This chassis has seen action at three previous tracks in 2014 including Auto Club, Atlanta and Phoenix. 

#41-Regan Smith will pilot Chassis No. 838 at Las Vegas Motor Speedway in Sunday's Kobalt 400. It was previously a #10 chassis for Stewart-Haas Racing (SHR) teammate Danica Patrick. It made its debut in April 2014 at Texas Motor Speedway, where Patrick started 24th and finished 27th. She was running in the top-15 with the car in June at Pocono but cut a tire, crashed and finished 37th. Chassis 838 then raced in August at Atlanta, where Patrick started 27th but finished a career-best sixth. It was last used in October at Kansas, where Patrick qualified 29th and over the final 30 circuits moved from 23rd to record an impressive 16th-place finish. Since then, Chassis No. 838 has undergone updates and will see its first laps of the season this weekend at Las Vegas.

#48-Jimmie Johnson: For the Kobalt 400, Knaus has selected chassis No. 48-922, which is a brand-new car. The backup car is No. 48-824, which last saw action at Pocono in June 2014.

#55-Brian Vickers: will drive primary chassis 817 in which Clint Bowyer finished eighth with at Homestead and 18th at Kansas in October. The backup chassis 813 was last driven by Bowyer Charlotte in May finishing 17th, 10th and sixth at Michigan races and ninth at Dover in September.

#88-Dale Earnhardt Jr.: This weekend, crew chief Greg Ives and the No. 88 team will unload Hendrick Motorsports Chassis No. 88-810. Earnhardt most recently raced the car at Kansas in October 2014. It is the same chassis Earnhardt drove to Victory Lane at Pocono in June and August of last season.

- Jayski.com

Updated LVH Super Book STP 500 Martinsville Odds

Johnson dropped to 5/2 favorite

STP GAS BOOSTER 500
MARTINSVILLE SPEEDWAY
SUNDAY, APRIL 7, 2013

JIMMIE JOHNSON 5-2
KYLE BUSCH 6
BRAD KESELOWSKI 9
MATT KENSETH 20
KASEY KAHNE 9
TONY STEWART 30
JEFF GORDON 6
DALE EARNHARDT JR 15
GREG BIFFLE 50
CARL EDWARDS 20
KEVIN HARVICK 15
CLINT BOWYER 9
MARTIN TRUEX JR 25
MARK MARTIN 40
BRIAN VICKERS 20
JOEY LOGANO 20
RYAN NEWMAN 35
RICKY STENHOUSE JR 100
KURT BUSCH 50
PAUL MENARD 75
MARCOS AMBROSE 75
JUAN MONTOYA 100
JAMIE McMURRAY 50
ARIC ALMIROLA 100
JEFF BURTON 100
REGAN SMITH 200
DANICA PATRICK 500
FIELD 300

New Hampshire Practice Notes: Hamlin Sweeps Every Practice Session

Denny Hamlin fastest in all three practice sessions (Getty)

By Micah Roberts

Denny Hamlin completed the rare triple sweep during practices this weekend at New Hampshire by being the fastest in all three sessions. Hamlin's fast lap at 132.053 mph in the last half of the final 60-minute session was good enough to pass teammate Joey Logano for the top slot.

There is no cash reward or trophy for being fastest during the sessions, just the peace of mind knowing that none of the 42 cars are as fast. For Hamlin, dominating the practices couldn't have come at a better time because of the pressure he placed upon himself following a disappointing Chicago race by tweeting, "This is 1 week of 10. We will win next week." So far, so good.

Hamlin will have to start Sunday's Sylvania 300 from the 32nd position because of an error in the qualifying setup Friday, but should have no problem making up the ground. We've seen him do well on the similar flat tracks this season at Richmond and Phoenix, and in the July New Hampshire race, he led 150 laps and finished runner-up.

Not surprisingly, the top speeds during Saturday's practices came from the Toyotas when every driver from the teams of Michael Waltrip and Joe Gibbs Racing finished in the top seven. In the four races this year at Richmond, Phoenix and New Hampshire, three were won from a driver within those stables.

Read More Here...

New Hampshire Practice 3 Speeds 



Hamlin Fastest Again in Second Session, Gordon looks Strong

By Micah Roberts

Denny Hamlin laid down the fastest lap during Saturday’s early practice session at New Hampshire with a top speed of 131.656 mph. Hamlin was fastest in Friday’s lone session while in qualifying trim, but when it was his turn to qualify as one of the favorites to win the pole, Hamlin’s team didn’t have the correct set-up and he’ll start Sunday’s race 32nd. He has a lot of ground to make up, but should take comfort in the fact that his car is real fast.

Joey Logano was second fastest in the session, followed by Jimmie Johnson, Martin Truex Jr. and Kyle Busch .One of Logano’s two career wins came at New Hampshire in 2009. Johnson is a three-time winner at New Hampshire.

All three Joe Gibbs racing cars finished in the top-5 during the session. When adding sixth fastest Brian Vickers and seventh fastest Clint Bowyer, we have six of the seven fastest cars being Toyota’s.

Jeff Gordon was ninth fastest during the session, but had the fastest 10-consecutive lap average showing signs that his good run on the similar track of Richmond two weeks ago may come into play this week. Bowyer and Logano were next best in the 10-consecutive lap category.

Aric Almirola ran the most laps (39) of the 60-minute session while finishing with the 20th fastest lap.

New Hampshire Practice 2 Speeds

Hamlin Fastest in Friday's Practice Session

By Micah Roberts

Jeff Gordon won the pole Friday (Getty)

Denny Hamlin tweeted to the world following the disappointment of last weeks 16th-place finish, "This is 1 week of 10. We will win next week."

During Friday’s first practice session in preparation for Sunday’s Sylvania 300, he took the first step in backing up his words by laying down the fastest lap. Hamlin’s speed of 134.820 mph was in qualifying trim, which should make him one of favorites to win Friday’s pole, but it also keeps him as the favorite to win Sunday’s race, just as he said he would.

We don’t see many NASCAR drivers make statements like Hamlin did last week just because it’s so hard to make good with so many different things occurring that are out of the drivers control. It’s surely harder than calling a home run in baseball, as Babe Ruth allegedly did the World Series at Wrigley Field, and it might rest below The Jets beating the Colts as 17-point underdogs in Super Bowl III, but whatever the case is, I’m loving it.

It’s a long Chase with nine races to go, but I like that Hamlin is psyching himself out and setting himself up with some lofty goals. The thing about it, though, is that he’s not really going out on a limb. He is the driver to beat at New Hampshire, as his 8.5 average finish attests to. And despite being listed as the third choice to win the Chase in recent Vegas odds, he’s still got the best skill-set/past preformance combination of car, driver and crew chief among all the drivers at the remaining nine tracks.

So maybe even as great a home run hitter as the Bambino was, hitting a called home run might have been more difficult than Hamlin winning at New Hampshire this week. And in Ruth‘s case, it‘s debatable if it even happened, as some baseball historians have discounted the feat as a fable.

Jeff Gordon was second fastest in the 90-minute session at 134.174 mph, followed by Regan Smith, Tony Stewart and Kevin Harvick.

Because we have two more practice sessions Saturday, and most of the top times were from drivers in qualifying trim, I don’t put much weight into today’s session, other than acknowledging drivers who were fast in single lap times. Only two drivers ran at least 10 consecutive laps.

The average speeds are distorted because some drivers ran as high as 39 laps like Brian Vickers -- who I like this week, while others contending, such as Brad Keselowski, ran only 11 laps.

I’ll have a full run-down Saturday with what drivers I thought looked most impressive.

New Hampshire Practice 1 Speeds


Gordon on Pole at New Hampshire - Starting Lineup

DENNY HAMLIN ON WHAT HAPPENED DURING HIS QUALIFYING LAP (STARTS 32ND): “I knew something was wrong. It looked like we just — we ended up having race pressures and we didn’t put our qualifying pressures in, so that was a tough one. I knew something was really, really wrong because we were just — the car was bobbing down real bad — but simple mistake. We’ll rebound from it. We’re quick enough. We’ll get them, but that’s frustrating. Holy cow — I knew something had to be wrong. If there was nothing wrong than I would really be shaking my head. At least we identified what the problem was.”

2012 Irwin Tools Night Race at Bristol Preview

Bristol back to its normal self this weekend (Getty)

By Micah Roberts
VegasInsider.com

This Saturday night we get to see the new and improved racing at Bristol Motor Speedway’s resurfaced half-mile track. That may sound funny because Bristol had just repaved their track in 2007 with a new progressive banking that allowed for multiple grooves. The drivers loved the racing because they weren’t all fighting for the same spot, which resulted in less banging, less crashes and less flare-ups at the end of the races. It also resulted in less fans.

Each ensuing year since the 2007 repave, the once-hardest ticket in the world to obtain became the easiest. The final straw for Speedway Motorsports CEO Bruton Smith came in March when the 150,000 seat facility was less than half full. The fans had spoken to the degree of how much they disliked the multi-grooves and to his credit, Smith immediately made plans to restore the track to it’s old layout.

Tony Stewart was one of three drivers to test the track out in a June session and indicated things might be back to the ‘racing oughta-be’, as the Bristol tagline says.

"Well, you’ve definitely lost the top groove," said Stewart. "Guys who run up there aren’t going to be able to do that because it’s pretty slick up there. There’s going to be less room to race, that’s for sure. We’ve gone from a three-groove track to two grooves and any time you’ve got less room to get around it can get pretty interesting.

"I’m one of the guys who likes that high groove so it’s really going to change things up for me. It’ll change things for everybody though because when you take away room to race on a track this small with 43 cars… yeah, it’s going to tighten things up."

With things being back to normal, we can go back to looking at a select group of drivers like we did in the past. It took a tough aggressive driver to win at Bristol who had no fear of irritating anyone. The fastest way around the track is the bottom again, and if someone is slower and won’t let you pass, you make him move by all means necessary.

Kyle Busch is a five-time winner at Bristol with four of the wins coming on the surface just bulldozed out of the way. However, he did win on the old surface’s last run. He has that type of attitude needed to get the most out of his car and he’s in a desperate situation as he needs one more win to secure his chances in the Chase. Only three races remain until the final 12 drivers will be know. The clock is ticking.

Brad Keselowski probably isn’t too happy about the changes on the track because he’s won the last two Bristol events. However, he should be in good shape because he beats and bangs with the best of them. He battles for his space on the track with the best of them and has earned all the drivers respect because of it.

Matt Kenseth is a two-time winner at Bristol, both of which came of the old layout. Although not exactly known for being a hard nose tough driver, Kenseth has always had what it takes to get around the track and with a win in site, he has no fear of ruffling some feathers.

Dal Earnhardt Jr, has also been a driver that fared very well on the old Bristol layout. He won in 204 and always seemd to finish withing the top-5 before the track went to a multi-groove layout. He now has a car that is one of best set-up weekly and should contend for the win this week.

Between Busch and Keselowski, they have won six of the past seven Bristol races. Despite the changes to the track, they are the starting point for this week.

Top-5 Finish Prediction:
1) #18 Kyle Busch (7/1)
2) #2 Brad Keselowski (8/1)
3) #17 Matt Kenseth (10/1)
4) #88 Dale Earnhardt Jr (12/1)
5) #14 Tony Stewart (10/1)

LVH Super Book Odds to Win 2012 Finger Lakes 355 at Watkins Glen

Ambrose has a 2.3 average finish in 4 starts (Getty)

FINGER LAKES 355
WATKINS GLEN INTERNATIONAL
SUNDAY, AUGUST 12, 2012

MARCOS AMBROSE 9-2
JEFF GORDON 6
TONY STEWART 6
JIMMIE JOHNSON 8
JUAN MONTOYA 10
KYLE BUSCH 10
KEVIN HARVICK 15
CLINT BOWYER 20
KASEY KAHNE 20
BRAD KESELOWSKI 20
DENNY HAMLIN 25
MARTIN TRUEX JR 25
CARL EDWARDS 25
KURT BUSCH 25
JOEY LOGANO 30
JAMIE McMURRAY 40
BORIS SAID 50
RYAN NEWMAN 50
GREG BIFFLE 50
DALE EARNHARDT JR 50
MATT KENSETH 50
BRIAN VICKERS 50
SAM HORNISH JR 60
JEFF BURTON 60
PAUL MENARD 60
DAVID GILLILAND 300
REGAN SMITH 300
ARIC ALMIROLA 300
BOBBY LABONTE 500
FIELD 60

Las Vegas Hilton Super Book Odds To Win Texas Samsung Mobile 500

2009 Texas winner Kurt Busch is 20-to-1 to win this week 

SAMSUNG MOBILE 500
TEXAS MOTOR SPEEDWAY
SATURDAY, APRIL 9, 2011

JIMMIE JOHNSON 6
DENNY HAMLIN 8
CARL EDWARDS 9-2
KYLE BUSCH 7
JEFF GORDON 10
GREG BIFFLE 15
KEVIN HARVICK 8
TONY STEWART 12
MATT KENSETH 20
CLINT BOWYER 25
KURT BUSCH 20
MARK MARTIN 20
JOEY LOGANO 30
JEFF BURTON 30
JUAN MONTOYA 30
KASEY KAHNE 30
JAMIE McMURRAY 35
RYAN NEWMAN 40
BRIAN VICKERS 40
DAVID REUTIMANN 50
DALE EARNHARDT JR 20
AJ ALLMENDINGER 100
MARTIN TRUEX JR 50
PAUL MENARD 75
DAVID RAGAN 75
BRAD KESELOWSKI 200
MARCOS AMBROSE 100
REGAN SMITH 300
BOBBY LABONTE 500
TREVOR BAYNE 500
DAVID GILLILAND 1000
FIELD 300

Jeff Gordon looking to avoid last falls fate

SAMSUNG MOBILE 500 MATCHUPS
TEXAS MOTOR SPEEDWAY
SATURDAY, APRIL 9, 2011

CARL EDWARDS -130
JIMMIE JOHNSON +110

CARL EDWARDS -150
DENNY HAMLIN +130

CARL EDWARDS -140
KYLE BUSCH +120

JIMMIE JOHNSON -130
KYLE BUSCH +110

JIMMIE JOHNSON -135
DENNY HAMLIN +115

KYLE BUSCH -120
DENNY HAMLIN EVEN

KEVIN HARVICK -120
TONY STEWART EVEN

KEVIN HARVICK -125
MATT KENSETH +105

TONY STEWART -110
MATT KENSETH -110

GREG BIFFLE -110
CLINT BOWYER -110

GREG BIFFLE -110
JEFF GORDON -110

JEFF GORDON -130
MARK MARTIN +110

KURT BUSCH -130
JOEY LOGANO +110

JEFF BURTON +105
DALE EARNHARDT JR -125

KASEY KAHNE +120
CLINT BOWYER -140

RYAN NEWMAN -120
JUAN MONTOYA EVEN

JAMIE McMURRAY +120
DALE EARNHARDT JR -140

JAMIE McMURRAY -110
MARTIN TRUEX JR -110

DAVID REUTIMANN -110
MARTIN TRUEX JR -110

DAVID RAGAN +120
PAUL MENARD -140