Micah Roberts' Top-10 Finish Prediction: 2023 Go Bowling at the Glen

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1 #8 Kyle Busch (12/1) - He has three wins on the season with eight top-fives and 13 top-10s and I believe he’s going to have the same fast car he’s had on the roads this season and that Tyler Reddick used to win two races last season. The RCR set-up for this No. 8 Chevy has been incredible and Busch took it over this season with a runner-up at both COTA and Sonoma and was fourth at Chicago. He has two wins at Watkins Glen. I like the price as well.

2 #9 Chase Elliott (7/2) - He’s the best statistical road racer in NASCAR with a 7.8 average finish, seven wins, and 16 top-fives. Amazing stuff for sure, but he’s yet to win his last 12 on them including all nine starts with the NextGen car that was introduced last season. He’s led a bunch of laps in the new car and he was fifth at Sonoma, third at Chicago, and runner-up at Indy this season but he didn’t have the best car in any of them. He won the two Watkins Glen races before Larson won the last two. I think he’ll battle hard for the win, but his lack of wins on the roads should have his price going upwards like last week when he was 8-to-1 to win at Indy, but he lost and now he’s 7-to-2? He wants to make the playoffs and this will be the last shot where he has a weighted edge.

3 #20 Christopher Bell (12/1) - In 18 Cup starts on road courses, he has a 15.3 average finish which includes two wins and nine top-10s. Every race no matter where, he finds himself in the mix leading laps in five of his last seven road/street starts. I also like the direction that JGR is going in their road course program. He’s my top Toyota to finish.

4 #45 Tyler Reddick (9/1) - He’s the second-best active driver in NASCAR, or say the stats that show him with a 12.9 average finish in 18 Cup starts. He has three wins and six top-fives. He’s had two starts at Watkins Glen and finished in the top-10 of each. He’ll be in the mix for a win.

5 #99 Daniel Suarez (10/1) - Desperation makes him attractive to bet on but the weighted price doesn’t. Caesars is protecting against a problem that doesn’t exist and never exists – risk on Suarez. The desperation aspect is him sitting 28-points behind the 16th and final playoff spot. He has three top-fives in five Cup starts at Watkins Glen. He was fifth last season in the new car, the same year he won at Sonoma. He’s a live bet this week but search for better odds.

6 #34 Michael McDowell (12/1) - He comes off a massive win last week where he clearly had the best car proving so in practice and also the entirety of the race. He also had the best race of his entire Cup career at Watkins Glen last season, the first year of the NextGen car, finishing sixth. Watkins Glen is a much different track than Indy, but I think he’s established himself as one of the better road racers.

7 #19 Martin Truex Jr (15/2) - He has five road course wins in 48 starts while averaging a 14th-place finish. He’s become one of the favorites each time on them in the last half of his career. He had four straight top-three finishes at Watkins Glen, kicked off with a 2017 win, that stalled last season with the new car. He’s back up to speed now, all good.

8 #17 Chris Buescher (20/1) - He ended his streak of eight straight top-10s on road courses by finishing 11th last week at Indy. He was ninth at Watkins Glen last season. He’s always around the front and will likely be competing for the win.

9 #11 Denny Hamlin (18/1) - This is his best road course track and his car has been improving as the weeks go by. Last season's 20th at the Glen was a product of not having their NextGen car fully figured out. Now they’re fast everywhere. He has top-fives in four of his last six starts at the Glen which began with his only road course win in 2016.

10 #54 Ty Gibbs (17/1) - He needs points as he’s 49 points down from the playoff cutoff line and he needs to race his tail off like never before. He’s a good season on them this season with a best of ninth at COT and a worse of 18th at Sonoma. He was 12th last week at Indy. He also won the 2021 Xfinity Series race at Watkins Glen. The price is a bit short, but I’ll likely just have match-up plays on the rookie.

Chase Elliott is +300 favorite to win 2023 Go Bowling at the Glen

 

9 CHASE ELLIOTT   Age: 27 (Nov. 28, 1995)   Hometown: Dawsonville, Georgia   Resides: Dawsonville, Georgia   Crew Chief: Alan Gustafson   Standings: 19th

No. 9 NAPA Auto Parts Chevrolet Camaro ZL1   INDY REWIND: Chase Elliott nearly captured his first NASCAR Cup Series victory of 2023 last weekend at the Indianapolis Motor Speedway Road Course. The 27-year-old driver rolled off the grid from the third position and steadily ran inside the top five throughout the first stage, ending it in third. Elliott followed that up with a fifth-place finish in the second stage. Late in the race, the 2020 Cup Series champion was in the second position, closing in on the leader but ultimately ran out of time. Elliott's runner-up finish marked his second top-five finish in just three starts on the 2.439-mile road course. BACK WHERE IT STARTED: Watkins Glen International was the site of Elliott’s first premier series win. He led 52 of 90 laps en route to victory in 2018. In just six starts on the 2.45-mile road course, the Dawsonville, Georgia, native has three top-two finishes, including two wins. Elliott’s most recent trip to victory lane at Watkins Glen came in 2019 after he swept the stages and led all but 10 laps of the race. His average finish of 5.67 is not only the best among active Cup drivers but also the best all-time among drivers with more than two starts. Among his other track-leading marks are stage wins (three) and points earned (220) in the stage racing era. Elliott is tied with teammate Kyle Larson for the longest active streak of top-10 finishes at the track (four). KEEP THE TOP FIVES ALIVE: This season, Elliott has three road course starts in the Cup Series and has finished inside the top five in each of them. The driver of the No. 9 Chevrolet earned a fifth-place result at Sonoma Raceway, a third-place effort in the inaugural Chicago Street Course event and most recently finished as the runner-up at Indianapolis – making him the only driver to finish inside the top five in the three most recent events on road courses. Elliott holds a series-leading average finish (3.33) across those three races. He also has the second-most points earned in that span (115). ROAD RACING RUNDOWN: Since the start of 2022, Elliott’s best finish on a road course is second (twice) – Road America in 2022 and last weekend at Indianapolis. In that span, he leads the series in top-five finishes (six) and is tied for the second-most top-10s (seven) across nine starts on serpentine tracks. Since the start of last season, the Hendrick Motorsports driver has paced the field for a series-high 129 laps on road courses. He has also earned two pole awards (Road America and Watkins Glen in 2022) and has a series-leading average finish of 7.11. Despite missing the race at Circuit of The Americas in March 2023 due to his leg injury, Elliott has the third-most points earned (311) in that time frame.  LEGEND IN THE MAKING: In 28 Cup Series starts on road courses, Elliott has an average finish of 7.64, with seven wins, 17 top-five finishes and 20 top-10s. His average finish is the best among active drivers and ranks second all-time among drivers with five or more starts, behind NASCAR legend Fireball Roberts.  WINNING WAYS: Elliott has proven his road-racing prowess, leading all active drivers with seven wins on road courses – most recently at Road America in 2021. He is also third on the overall list of drivers with road course victories, trailing only NASCAR Hall of Famers Jeff Gordon (nine) and Tony Stewart (eight). Elliott has victories across five different road courses, which is the most in series history.  VIEW FROM THE TOP: Veteran crew chief Alan Gustafson has plenty of experience on tracks where left and right turns are made. Across 49 Cup Series races on road courses, the Ormond Beach, Florida, native has led his team to seven wins (all with Elliott) – a series-high among active crew chiefs – 20 top-five finishes and 27 top-10s.    WIN AND IN: Elliott sits 19th in the driver points standings, 80 markers below the provisional playoff cutline with just two races remaining in the regular season. A victory would lock Elliott into the postseason. Between the two remaining tracks, Elliott and the No. 9 crew have two wins at Watkins Glen and a best effort of second (twice) at Daytona International Speedway. Currently, the No. 9 squad is the final team in the provisional playoff field for the owner’s title, 51 points above the cutline. GET UP AND GO: NAPA Auto Parts is back on board the No. 9 Chevrolet Camaro ZL1 this weekend at Watkins Glen. The Atlanta-based company was the primary partner for Elliott’s 2019 victory at the track. Get a look at all the angles of the No. 9 NAPA Auto Parts Chevrolet here. Chase Elliott, driver of the No. 9 Chevrolet Camaro ZL1, on how meaningful Watkins Glen is to him: "Watkins Glen (International) always stands out to me because of the first win. That one will always be special because of that. Will it always be good to us? Probably not, but I do enjoy going up there. It is a very nice part of the country – a very underrated part of the country. Just the memories I have from that first win weekend are super special and something that I will hold onto forever." Elliott on his outlook with two opportunities left to lock himself into the playoffs: "Certainly, don’t want to have yourself in a position to have to win at Daytona (International Speedway), but that’s a possibility at this point. I feel way better about going to Watkins Glen (International) than I do Daytona because there is more in my control going there verses a plate race."

Desperate Alex Bowman finds bettors, odds drop to 22/1

 

48 Alex Bowman   Age: 30 (April 25, 1993)   Hometown: Tucson, Arizona   Resides: Concord, North Carolina   Crew Chief: Blake Harris   Standings: 20th

No. 48 Ally Chevrolet Camaro ZL1   INDY RC REBOUND: Last Sunday, Alex Bowman showed off his road racing skills as he nabbed a top-five finish at the Indianapolis Motor Speedway Road Course. His strong weekend started when he qualified ninth on Saturday. Bowman finished the opening two stages in eighth, before maneuvering to fifth by the end of the 200-mile NASCAR Cup Series event. His top-five result at Indianapolis now gives him five career top-fives on road courses. PUSH TO THE PLAYOFFS: Heading to Watkins Glen International this weekend, Bowman currently ranks 20th in the driver points standings. He is 80 markers behind the provisional playoff cutoff line. Despite a 60-point penalty in April and missing three points-paying races in the spring with an injury, Bowman still can make the top 16 for the playoffs. In 21 starts this season, the 30-year-old driver has four top-five finishes, seven top-10s and the DAYTONA 500 pole award. ROAD TESTED: Bowman has two runner-up finishes on road courses in his time at Hendrick Motorsports – at the Charlotte Motor Speedway ROVAL in 2019 and Circuit of The Americas (COTA) in 2022. The Tucson, Arizona, native is one of two drivers with multiple second-place showings without a win on this track type. Earlier this year, he finished third at COTA and with his top-five result at Indianapolis, he joins teammate Chase Elliott as one of four drivers with multiple top-fives on road courses in 2023.  HARRIS ON THE ROAD: Crew chief Blake Harris has two top-five finishes and four top-10s in eight road course starts atop the pit box. His teams on courses that turn left and right have an average start of 11.4 and an average finish of 14.5. DOUBLE-DOUBLE: In addition to the Cup Series race this weekend, Bowman will also get behind the wheel of the No. 17 HendrickCars.com Chevrolet Camaro in the NASCAR Xfinity Series for Hendrick Motorsports. He will take on the New York-based serpentine track with the aim of notching the first win in the No. 17 Chevy since its return in 2022. Last year, Bowman made one start in the team’s Xfinity car and finished second at Indianapolis. In his career, he has one win in the series, which came in 2017 at Charlotte Motor Speedway with HendrickCars.com as a sponsor. RESTART ME UP: Bowman ranks as the sixth-best driver on restarts in 2023, according to data from Racing Insights. That mark is second-best among the Hendrick Motorsports quartet as teammate Kyle Larson is tied for third in this statistical category.  SAVE THEM ALL: Bowman and primary partner Ally are teaming up this year to bring back the Best Friends Animal Society donation effort. This week, the duo will make charitable contributions to Pawz and Purrz Animal Rescue, Inc., which serves the Southern Tier region of New York. Bowman and Ally will donate $4,800 to Best Friends and Pawz and Purrz Animal Rescue, Inc. Ally will increase its donation to $10,000 if the No. 48 team wins on Sunday. Alex Bowman, driver of the No. 48 Chevrolet Camaro ZL1, on his mindset heading to Watkins Glen: "Watkins Glen (International) is a place I have struggled at historically, so being able to get some laps in the Xfinity (Series) car always helps. It doesn’t translate directly to our Cup car, but it’s time on track. We are coming off of a top-five finish, so I don’t see why we can’t go run well again this Sunday." Blake Harris, crew chief of the No. 48 Chevrolet Camaro ZL1, on the momentum the No. 48 team has heading to Watkins Glen: "We had a great weekend in Indy – getting stage points and a top-five finish always bodes well for our confidence. The fact that we had speed at a road course and are heading to another definitely puts some wind in our sails. Alex (Bowman) is also running the Xfinity (Series) car and will be able to make laps ahead of the Cup race on Sunday, so there is a lot of momentum in our corner at the moment. We are just looking to capitalize on it and try to make our way into the playoffs."

William Byron is 20/1 to win at Watkins Glen

 

24 WILLIAM BYRON   Age: 25 (Nov. 29, 1997)   Hometown: Charlotte, North Carolina   Resides: Charlotte, North Carolina   Crew Chief: Rudy Fugle   Standings: 3rd

No. 24 Valvoline Chevrolet Camaro ZL1   TWO TO GO: With two races left in the regular season, William Byron is third in the NASCAR Cup Series driver points standings, 104 markers behind the leader. While the Charlotte, North Carolina, native is hoping to secure his first Cup Series regular-season championship, he’s still having a career-best season. Byron leads the series in wins (four), stage wins (seven) and laps run in the top five (2,688). He also has led a single-season career-best 810 laps (second-most in the series). The 25-year-old driver’s eight top-five finishes are tied for the third-most in the sport’s top division. In addition, Byron ranks third in average running position (10.37) and laps run in the top 10 (3,617). WATKINS GLEN WIZ: Sunday’s race will mark Byron’s fifth Cup Series start at Watkins Glen International and his seventh NASCAR national series start overall at the road course. In the Cup Series, Byron has a track-best qualifying effort of second (2019) and a best finish of sixth (2021). Prior to his four Cup Series starts, he made his debut at Watkins Glen in the 2015 ARCA Menards Series East race, starting second and finishing seventh. He returned to the venue in 2017 in the NASCAR Xfinity Series, finishing 10th. Byron has made one additional start at the upstate New York facility in the Xfinity Series in 2022 with Hendrick Motorsports. In that race, he earned the pole and led 35 laps before being caught up in a late-race, on-track incident while battling for the lead. HOMEWARD BOUND: While Rudy Fugle may have limited experience at Watkins Glen, the Livonia, New York, native is excited to be heading to his hometown track for Sunday’s race. This weekend will mark Fugle’s third Cup Series start as a crew chief at the 2.45-mile road course. In his three Cup Series starts in front of his hometown crowd, his best showing came in 2021, leading Byron and the No. 24 team to a sixth-place finish. In total, Fugle has 26 national series starts on road courses (16 in the Cup Series, three in the Xfinity Series and seven in the NASCAR CRAFTSMAN Truck Series). He earned a road course win in the truck ranks in 2015. One of those seven truck starts was also with Byron where the duo raced to a 10th-place finish at Canadian Tire Motorsport Park in 2016. ROAD POTPOURRI: Earlier this season, Byron earned his best-ever road course result in the Cup Series, securing a fifth-place finish at Circuit of The Americas. In 2023, he is tied for sixth in points scored on road courses (119) and he has run the eighth-most laps (78) in the top five on this track type. In addition, four of Byron’s 11 career poles in the sport’s top series have come at road courses.  PIT ROAD PROWESS: After 24 races in the 2023 season, the No. 24 pit crew remains in the top spot with the fastest average four-tire pit stop time of 11.040 seconds. The No. 24 pit crew consists of Spencer Bishop (jackman), Jeff Cordero (front-tire changer), Orane Ossowski (rear-tire changer), Ryan Patton (tire carrier) and Landon Walker (fueler). VALVOLINE RETURNS: Valvoline will make its third appearance of 2023 as the primary sponsor of Byron’s No. 24 Chevrolet Camaro ZL1 for this Sunday’s race at Watkins Glen. Valvoline Inc. (NYSE: VVV) is a leading worldwide marketer and supplier of premium branded lubricants and automotive services, with sales in more than 140 countries. Established in 1866, the company’s heritage spans more than 150 years, during which time it has developed powerful brand recognition across multiple product and service channels. Valvoline ranks as the No. 3 passenger car motor oil brand in the DIY market by volume. To see Byron’s No. 24 Valvoline Chevy, click here.  William Byron, driver of the No. 24 Chevrolet Camaro ZL1, on building momentum with the playoffs approaching: "I don’t think we change our processes the next couple weeks. We want to go into these last races of the regular season and execute to the best we can and keep building the momentum. While winning the regular-season championship would be great, we’re focused on making the final four and that starts now with maximizing the playoff points we can earn for each round. We don’t need to change anything we do now because that’s when mistakes happen." Rudy Fugle, crew chief of the No. 24 Chevrolet Camaro ZL1, on how to be successful at Watkins Glen: "Watkins Glen (International) is pretty big for me. It’s my home track and I grew up not far away from there. So it’s important to go out there and run well for me. It’s a super fast and historic racetrack. There are big braking zones and the bus stop puts on it’s own event basically. It’s just amazing to watch them go through the bus stop, but you have to be good everywhere at this track. It’s very technical. This car will want to swing the back through the carousel, and you need to be able to get the rear tires underneath you before you get into turn six and seven because they make a lot of speed. You have a lot of speed then down the frontstretch and into turn one, which makes that a big passing zone. That place always packs out, so you know there will be a ton of fans. I’m excited to get there."