Final 2015 Sylvania 300 New Hampshire Practice Notes & Driver Ratings

Carl Edwards looked the best throughout all practices, but Kyle Busch's excellence at NHMS makes him the one to beat 

Micah Roberts' Top-10 Rated NASCAR Drivers
Sylvania 300
New Hampshire Motor Speedway
Sunday, September 27, 2015 - 11:16 am (PT)
 
Rating     Driver       Odds                    Practice 1        Qualified        Practice 2         Practice 3  
 1. Kyle Busch 5/1                        14th             17th            18th              2nd 
Two-time winner; second or better in four of past five starts. Outstanding final practice.
 2. Kevin Harvick 9/2                  11th               2nd             2nd              1st  
2006 winner is in desperation mode to advance; best 10-consecutive lap average in practice 2.
 3. Carl Edwards 12/1                    1st               1st               1st                5th 
No wins and only two top-fives in 22 career starts, but was the best overall during practices.
 4. Brad Keselowski 5/1               3rd               4th              3rd               3rd  
Won last season and was runner-up in July; track-best 10.3 average finish among actives.
 5. Joey Logano 7/1                      13th               8th             4th               11th
Two-time winner, including first career win; top-fives in past three races on similar flat tracks.
 6. Denny Hamlin 10/1               16th               7th              8th               7th 
Two-time winner with 10.6 average; loves flat tracks. Has a free roll with ticket into next round.
 7. Matt Kenseth 8/1                   10th              13th            9th               10th 
2013 winner in first year with Gibbs; led 352 lap en route to win two weeks ago at Richmond.
 8. Kurt Busch 12/1                       5th               3rd              5th                9th 
Three-time winner, the last in 2008; led 291 laps in April win at Richmond, a similar flat track.
 9. Jimmie Johnson 10/1             2nd               5th             7th                 4th 
Three-time winner with 10.7 average finish; could surprise the stout Gibbs and Penske cars.
10. Dale Earnhardt Jr. 20/1         6th              11th             6th              15th 
Never won in 32 career starts, but did finish fifth in last two races held on similar tracks.

Note: Great handicapping tool for this race is to refer to the four races run earlier this season at Phoenix, Richmond and New Hampshire. All three tracks are flat and almost the same size which require similar set-ups. If good on one track, a driver should be good on the others.

Odds courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas Super Book.

Video: Roberts talks New Hampshire odds from Vegas

Micah Roberts, a former Las Vegas sports book director, has been setting NASCAR odds since 1994. Follow him on twitter @MicahRoberts7

Kevin Harvick favored to win Sylvania 300 at New Hampshire

Kevin Harvick is going to be hard to keep from advancing. 

LAS VEGAS -- Kevin Harvick's chances of advancing to the next round of the Chase for the Sprint Cup might appear bleak after his 42nd-place finish at Chicagoland Speedway, but count the oddsmakers at the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook among those who have nothing but respect for the defending champ. Despite likely needing a win over the next two races to advance – he hasn't won since Phoenix in March – Harvick’s odds to win his second consecutive championship were adjusted to 6-to-1 on Monday; he was the 4-to-1 co-favorite last week. He's won at New Hampshire Motor Speedway only once (2006), but he opened as the 9-to-2 favorite to win Sunday's Sylvania 300.

Until someone knocks the champ out, he's still the champ, and the Westgate oddsmakers believe in the champ to advance. By making him the favorite at New Hampshire, they’re telling Las Vegas, 'Kevin Harvick is the driver we want the least amount of money on this week.'

Read More Here.......complete list of odds

New Hampshire Preview: 2015 Sylvania 300

Could Harvick's dreadful start benefit Hamlin? 

LAS VEGAS -- Boy, we really got some kind of Chase brewing with all kinds of drama after just one race. The defending champ, Kevin Harvick, felt Jimmie Johnson caused his wreck early in the Chicago race last week which caused him to finish 42nd and drop all the way to last place among the 16 drivers in the Chase. After the race, Harvick shoved Johnson.

Yes! A battle between two champions. Love it!

Harvick is now in a situation where he is going to have to most likely win either of the next two races -- Sunday at New Hampshire or next week at Dover -- to stay alive in the Chase.

As we saw last season at Phoenix, never doubt Harvick to do anything when the chips were down. However, if you did want to doubt Harvick you would have stats on your side. While Harvick has more wins than anyone at Phoenix history with seven, including the past four, he has only one win combined on the 1-mile layouts of New Hampshire and Dover.

Still, the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook only dropped his odds to win the Sprint Cup from a 4/1 co-favorite last week to 6/1 on Monday, which is the ultimate sign of respect.

Here's a look at the Westgate's updated numbers:

Odds to win 2015 Sprint Cup Championship
Kyle Busch 4/1
Matt Kenseth 5/1
Joey Logano 6/1
Kevin Harvick 6/1
Jimmie Johnson 7/1
Brad Keselowski 8/1
Denny Hamlin 8/1
Carl Edwards 12/1
Martin Truex Jr. 12/1
Kurt Busch 12/1
Dale Earnhardt Jr. 25/1
Jeff Gordon 30/1
Ryan Newman 60/1
Jamie McMurray 100/1
Clint Bowyer 200/1
Paul Menard 300/1

Sunday's Sylvania 300 will be the second race of the season on New Hampshire Motor Speedway's 1-mile flat track. The best part of handicapping New Hampshire is that we can really get a good grasp of who should do well by looking at results from similar tracks at Phoenix (1-mile) and Richmond (3/4-mile) this season. If a driver does well on one, history shows that they do well on the other.

Back in the day when teams used to list chassis information -- the previous 20 years up until this season -- I noticed that most of the crew chiefs brought the same chassis to each of the three flat tracks, especially those that did well. The results were always there to show similarities over the years, but the chassis angle and similar set-up always stuck with me.

As a bookmaker, I lowered odds on those drivers that performed well on the three tracks and as a bettor I took advantage of other books that were not in tune with NASCAR. The trio of tracks at Phoenix, New Hampshire and Richmond have consistently been my most profitable NASCAR tracks over the past 20-plus years of betting, whether it's odds to win or head-to-head matchups. I could pinpoint the most likely winner to just two or three drivers and wager more on them instead of spreading things around more for less money.

Read More Here....Top-5 Finish Prediction at NHMS

New Hampshire Motor Speedway Track Facts: 2015 Sylvania 300

New Hampshire set-up requirements make it similar to Richmond and Phoenix.

The NASCAR Sprint Cup Series 2015 Top 16 at New Hampshire Motor Speedway

	Driver	Races	Poles	Wins	Top Fives	Top 10s	DNFs	Average Finish	Driver Rating
1	Matt Kenseth	31	0	1	7	16	1	13.1	86.5
2	Denny Hamlin	19	0	2	7	11	0	10.7	102.4
3	Carl Edwards	22	1	0	2	6	0	13.6	87.0
4	Kyle Busch	21	2	2	8	11	0	13.4	96.7
5	Kurt Busch	29	0	3	7	12	1	15.9	88.8
6	Joey Logano	14	0	2	4	6	2	16.9	79.9
7	Jimmie Johnson	27	0	3	10	18	1	10.7	100.9
8	Ryan Newman	27	7	3	7	16	3	13.7	91.5
9	Brad Keselowski	12	3	1	5	8	0	10.2	98.7
10	Dale Earnhardt Jr	32	0	0	8	15	4	15	97.5
11	Martin Truex Jr	19	0	0	3	6	1	14.3	86.8
12	Jeff Gordon	41	4	3	16	23	2	11.3	106.7
13	Jamie McMurray	25	0	0	4	6	3	20.7	70.8
14	Paul Menard	17	0	0	0	0	0	23.8	61.4
15	Clint Bowyer	19	1	2	4	7	1	15.5	92.6
16	Kevin Harvick	29	1	1	7	15	0	13.5	94.6

* – Based on last 21 races at New Hampshire Motor Speedway (2005 – 2015).

New Hampshire Motor Speedway Data Season Race #: 28 of 36 (09-27-15) Track Size: 1.058-mile Banking/Turn 1 & 2: 2 to 7 degrees Banking/Turn 3 & 4: 2 to 7 degrees Banking/Frontstretch: 1 degree Banking/Backstretch: 1 degree Frontstretch Length:  1,500 feet Backstretch Length:  1,500 feet Race Length: 301 laps / 318.46 miles Top 10 Driver Rating at New Hampshire Jeff Gordon.............................. 106.7 Tony Stewart............................. 104.7 Denny Hamlin............................ 102.4 Jimmie Johnson........................ 100.9 Brad Keselowski......................... 98.7 Dale Earnhardt Jr........................ 97.5 Kyle Busch................................. 96.7 Kevin Harvick.............................. 94.6 Clint Bowyer............................... 92.6 Ryan Newman............................. 91.5 Note: Driver Ratings compiled from 2005-2015 races (21 total) among active drivers at New Hampshire Motor Speedway. Qualifying/Race Data 2014 pole winner: Brad Keselowski, Ford 140.598 mph, 27.090 secs. 09-19-14 2014 race winner: Joey Logano, Ford 98.697 mph, (03:14:53), 09-21-14 Track qualifying record: Brad Keselowski, Ford 140.598 mph, 27.090 secs. 09-21-14 Track race record: Jeff Burton, Ford 117.134 mph, (02:42:35), 07-13-97

New Hampshire Motor Speedway:

History

·         Groundbreaking for New Hampshire International Speedway, as New Hampshire Motor Speedway was originally named, was Aug. 13, 1989.

·         The 1.058-mile oval is located on approximately 1,200 acres; the multi-use complex is the largest sports facility in New England.

·         The first NASCAR Sprint Cup race was on July 11, 1993 – won by NASCAR Hall of Famer Rusty Wallace.

·         Speedway Motorsports, Inc. agreed to purchase New Hampshire International Speedway from Bob and Gary Bahre on January 11, 2008 and then renamed the track New Hampshire Motor Speedway.

Starts

·         There have been 41 NASCAR Sprint Cup Series races at New Hampshire Motor Speedway; one per year from 1993 through 1996 and two per year since.

·         166 drivers have competed in at least one NASCAR Sprint Cup Series race at New Hampshire Motor Speedway; 130 in more than one.

·         Jeff Gordon has competed in all 41 races at New Hampshire – the only driver to accomplish the feat.

·         14 different drivers have made their first NSCS start at NHMS all-time, but only one of the 14 is an active championship contending NASCAR Sprint Cup Series driver: Joey Logano (9/14/08).

·         Ryan Newman leads the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series in average starting position at New Hampshire with a 9.333.

Poles

·         Mark Martin won the inaugural Coors Light pole at New Hampshire in 1993 with a speed of 126.871 mph. 

·         19 drivers have Coors Light poles at New Hampshire, led by Ryan Newman with seven.

·         Four active drivers have multiple poles at New Hampshire: Ryan Newman (seven), Jeff Gordon (four), Brad Keselowski (three) and Kyle Busch (two).

Poles

·         Five drivers have won consecutive Coors Light poles at New Hampshire: Ken Schrader (1997 sweep); Jeff Gordon (1998-1999); Rusty Wallace (1999-2000); Ryan Newman (twice – 2003-2004 and 2011 sweep); Juan Pablo Montoya (2009-2010).

·         Youngest New Hampshire Coors Light pole winner: Brian Vickers (07/17/2005 – 21 years, 8 months, 23 days).

·         Oldest New Hampshire Coors Light pole winner: Bill Elliott (07/21/2002 – 46 years, 9 months, 13 days).

·         Two drivers (all-time) have posted their first career NASCAR Sprint Cup Series Coors Light pole at New Hampshire Motor Speedway: Brad Keselowski (09/19/10) and Patrick Carpentier (06/27/2008).       

Wins

·         24 different drivers have won at New Hampshire Motor Speedway, led by Jeff Burton with four.

·         Eight active drivers have multiple wins at NHMS: Kurt Busch, Jeff Gordon, Jimmie Johnson, Ryan Newman, Tony Stewart (each have three); Kyle Busch, Clint Bowyer, Denny Hamlin and Joey Logano(each have two)

·         Two drivers have posted consecutive wins at New Hampshire Motor Speedway: Jimmie Johnson (2003 sweep) and Kurt Busch (2004 sweep). 

·         Youngest New Hampshire winner: Joey Logano (06/28/2009 – 19 years, 1 month, 4 days).

·         Oldest New Hampshire winner: Mark Martin (09/20/2009 – 50 years, 8 months, 11 days).

·         Hendrick Motorsports leads the series in wins at New Hampshire in the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series with nine; followed by Roush Fenway Racing (seven), Joe Gibbs Racing (seven), Team Penske (six), and Richard Childress Racing (four).

·         Five different manufacturers have won at New Hampshire; led by Chevrolet with 18 victories; followed by Ford(13), Toyota (five), Dodge (three) and Pontiac (two).

·         Jeff Burton is the only driver to win the July race at New Hampshire Motor Speedway three consecutive years in a row (1997, ’98 and ’99)

·         Five of the 41 (12.1%) NASCAR Sprint Cup Series races at New Hampshire have been won from the Coors Light pole; the most recent was Ryan Newman in 2011.

·         The Coors Light pole is the most proficient starting position in the field, producing more winners (five) than any other starting position at New Hampshire.    

·         Eight of the 41 (19.5%) NASCAR Sprint Cup Series races at New Hampshire have been won from the front row: five from the pole and three from second-place.

·         23 of the 41 (56%) NASCAR Sprint Cup races at New Hampshire have been won from a top-10 starting position.

Wins

·         Nine of the 41 (21.9%) NASCAR Sprint Cup Series races at New Hampshire have been won from a starting position outside the top 20.

·         The deepest in the field that a race winner has started at New Hampshire is 38th, by Jeff Burton in 1999.

·         The deepest in the field that an active race winner has started at New Hampshire is 32nd, by Kurt Busch in the summer of 2003.

·         Dale Earnhardt Jr. leads the series among active drivers with the most NASCAR Sprint Cup Series starts at New Hampshire without visiting Victory Lane at 32; followed by Jamie McMurray and Casey Mears (25 starts each).

·         Five NASCAR Sprint Cup Series drivers have posted their first career win at New Hampshire Motor Speedway:Ryan Newman (09/15/02), Clint Bowyer (09/16/07), Joey Logano (06/28/09), Robby Gordon (11/23/01) andJoe Nemechek (09/19/99).

Additional Finishing Position Stats 

·         Jeff Gordon and Tony Stewart are tied for the series lead in runner-up finishes at New Hampshire with five each; followed by Denny Hamlin, Kyle Busch and Mark Martin (with three each). 

·         Jeff Gordon leads the series in top-five finishes at New Hampshire with 16; followed by Tony Stewart with 14 and Jimmie Johnson with 10.   

·         Jeff Gordon leads the series in top-10 finishes at New Hampshire with 23; followed by Tony Stewart andJimmie Johnson with 18 each.

·         Jimmie Johnson leads NASCAR Sprint Cup Series in average finishing position at New Hampshire with a 10.250.

·         All 14 active NASCAR Sprint Cup Series race winners at New Hampshire Motor Speedway participated in at least one or more races before visiting Victory Lane. Ryan Newman and Joey Logano won at New Hampshire in their second appearance.     

Track Specific Stats

·         Since the advent of electronic scoring the closest margin of victory (MOV) in the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series at New Hampshire Motor Speedway was the July 1, 2007 race won by Denny Hamlin over Jeff Gordon with a MOV of 0.068 second.

·         17 of the 34 (50%) NSCS races scored by electronic scoring at New Hampshire Motor Speedway have had a Margin of Victory less than a second.

·         Four of the 41 NASCAR Sprint Cup Series races have resulted with a green-white-checkered finish at New Hampshire Motor Speedway (Scheduled No. of Laps/Actual No. of Laps): 2006 (300/308), 2013 (301/302), 2014 (301/302) and the Chase race 2014 (300/303).

·         Four of the 41 NASCAR Sprint Cup Series at New Hampshire Motor Speedway have been shortened due to weather conditions; the most recent was June 28, 2009 – the race was called on Lap 273, 28 circuits shy of the 301 scheduled laps.   

Track Specific Stats

·         Qualifying has been cancelled due to weather conditions in the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series at New Hampshire Motor Speedway five times: fall 2001, summer 2003, fall 2004, fall 2008 and summer 2009.  

·         Jeff Gordon leads the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series in laps led at New Hampshire with 1,373 laps led in 41 starts. 

·         Jeff Gordon leads the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series in laps completed at New Hampshire with 11,967 laps completed in 41 starts. 

Female Competitor Stats

·         Danica Patrick is the only female driver that has competed in the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series at New Hampshire Motor Speedway.

Date	Driver	Starting Position	Finishing Position	Driver Rating
7/19/2015	Danica Patrick	20	24	56.7
9/21/2014	Danica Patrick	18	19	79.7
7/13/2014	Danica Patrick	29	22	60.9
9/22/2013	Danica Patrick	21	27	57.1
7/14/2013	Danica Patrick	32	37	47.7
Averages		24.0	25.8	60.4

NASCAR in New Hampshire

·         There have been 41 NASCAR Sprint Cup Series races in New Hampshire, all at NHMS.

Track Name	City	NSCS	NNS	NCWTS
New Hampshire Motor Speedway	Loudon	41	29	17

·         15 drivers in NASCAR national series history have their home state recorded as New Hampshire; Jamie Aubeis the only one of the 15 to record a victory in NASCAR national series competition. 

·         Aube won in the NASCAR XFINITY Series on July 12, 1987 at Oxford Plains Speedway in Oxford, ME; it was his only start that season.

 

Milestones – New Hampshire Motor Speedway

DRIVER	HAS	NEEDS	MILESTONE	DESCRIPTION
Jeff Gordon	788	1	789th NASCAR Sprint Cup Series Consecutive Start	This weekend Jeff Gordon will become the all-time NASCAR Sprint Cup Series leader in consecutive starts with 789, breaking a tie with Ricky Rudd.
Paul Menard	299	1	300th NASCAR Sprint Cup Series Consecutive Start	Menard will attempt to post his 300th consecutive NSCS start this weekend; Menard is 13th on the active consecutive NSCS starts list 16 starts behind David Ragan in 12th.
Danica Patrick	99	1	100th NASCAR Sprint Cup Series Consecutive Start	Patrick will attempt to post her 100th consecutive NSCS start this weekend; she is ranked 20th on the active consecutive starts list; four starts behind Dale Earnhardt Jr. in 19th (103).
Josh Wise	124	1	125th NASCAR Sprint Cup Series Start	Wise is tied with Charlie Glotzbach for 174th on the NASCAR Sprint Cup all-time starts list, one start behind Larry Thomas and J.T. Putney (125 each) in 172nd/173rd.
Jimmie Johnson	74	2	76th NASCAR Sprint Cup Series Win	Jimmie Johnson is eighth on the all-time NSCS wins list, two wins behind NASCAR Hall of Famer Dale Earnhardt in seventh (76 wins).
Tony Stewart	48	2	50th NASCAR Sprint Cup Series Win	Stewart is 12th on the all-time NSCS wins list, two wins behind NASCAR Hall of Famer Ned Jarrett in 10th (50 wins).
Kyle Busch	124	1	125th NASCAR Sprint Cup Series Top-Five Finish	Busch will attempt to post his 125th NSCS top-five finish this weekend. Busch is 28th on the all-time list; eight top fives behind Kevin Harvick (132) in 27th.
Tony Stewart	299	1	300th NASCAR Sprint Cup Series Top-10 Finish	Stewart is 17th on the all-time NSCS top-10 finishes list, two top 10s behind James Hylton in 16th (301 top 10s).
Jeff Gordon	24,872	128	25,000 NASCAR Sprint Cup Series Laps Led	Gordon can become the sixth driver in NSCS history to lead 25,000 laps; joining Richard Petty, Dale Earnhardt, Cale Yarborough, David Pearson and Bobby Allison.
#43 car	199	1	200 NASCAR Sprint Cup Series Wins	The No. 43 car is second on the all-time NSCS wins list, five wins behind the No. 11 car in first (205). The last win for the No. 43 car came at Daytona last season.
Chevrolet	749	1	750th NASCAR Sprint Cup Series Win	Chevrolet will attempt to post the manufacturer's 750th win in the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series this weekend. Chevrolet leads the series in wins.