Friday, September 29, 2023

Micah Roberts' Top-10 Finish Prediction: 2023 YellaWood 500 at Talladega

Read my full article on Sportsline.com

1 #11 Denny Hamlin (12/1)
- In 71 Cup starts at superspeedways he has five wins, 21 top-fives, and led 1,097 laps. His 21 top-fives is the most in the series among active drivers. Is this his year? Is this about to be his first NASCAR Cup Championship? I’m thinking it is and the storybook ending to the season has me wishing and hoping he’s finally crowned the champ. He’s grown into one of the best superspeedway drivers because he understands how the draft works better than anyone. He is able to manipulate the air in the draft to propel himself to speeds that others don’t understand yet. This man is driving for his legacy in the sport. Joey Logano has two titles and Hamlin none. That’s not cool. I’m here for it, I’m waiting for it. Starts at Talladega.

2 #12 Ryan Blaney (12/1) - This guy has only four top-fives this season. He did manage to find his way to a win. In 18 Talladega starts he has two wins, five top-fives, and 275 laps led. I put him in this position because he’s been runner-up in his last two Talladega starts. It’s a very good track for him.

3 #23 Bubba Wallace (14/1) - In 11 Talladega Cup starts, he has one 2021 win and that remains his only top-five and top-10. He’s led laps in seven of his last eight races. He led the most laps (111) last week at Texas and finished third and I was sick. But I can’t let my losses last week alter my thoughts on him this week, plus I won two driver matchups with him. But man, I wanted that win badly.

4 #24 William Byron (16/1) - In 21 Cup starts on superspeedways he has one 2020 Daytona win, four top-fives, and 191 laps led. His best at Talladega was runner-up in 2021 and his best this season was seventh in April. The treason you bet him is because he has six wins on the season and he’ll likely win once or twice more before the season is over,

5 #6 Brad Keselowski (10/1) - He has a series-leading seven wins on superspeedways, including six of them at Talladega. His last win was in 2021 at Talladega. His last two superspeedway starts have been impressive with fifth at Talladega in April and runner-up at Daytona last month. If he’s going to win again, this is the place.

6 #10 Aric Almirola (20/1) - Two of his career Cup wins have come on superspeedways with the last coming in 2018 at Talladega. It’s been a long season for him but I bet him this week because of his third place at Daytona last month. He’s led laps in his last four superspeedway starts.

7 #1 Ross Chastain (20/1) - In 20 superspeedway races he won once at Talladega last spring and finished fourth last fall. His best of the three races run this season was ninth in the Daytona 500. He’s included in my betting portfolio this week.

8 #47 Ricky Stenhouse Jr (22/1)
- All three of his Cup wins have come in superspeedway race tracks, two in 2017 and one this year in the Daytona 500. He has nine top-fives in 43 superspeedway starts and led 252 laps. He knows how to make the winning moves but it’s also part of his risk-taking that gets him into trouble.

9 #54 Ty Gibbs (30/1) - This track has proven too big and bad for the young Gibbs, but I like him to manage his fears here and run well. He’s grown in confidence and while he may not have the chops to manage the draft, I advise him to stay back and run the race from the back and let the wrecks happen in front of him and out of harm's way. With 15 laps to go, make your move and race against 20 drivers rather than 38.

10 #2 Austin Cindric (30/1) - In eight Cup starts between Daytona and Talladega he has a win in the 2022 Daytona 500 and a third last summer at Daytona. His best is ninth at Talladega in this race last season.

No comments: