NASCAR Betting: Analyzing The Coca-Cola 600 Driver Matchups

By Frederic Crespi

For the first time in the last seven races, drivers and teams will have the benefit of two practice sessions after already having qualified on Thursday evening. Both of those practices will be run Saturday with the first at 10:00 a.m. EST and the final session at 1:00 p.m. EST.

I wouldn’t expect a large amount of laps to be run by many teams on Saturday due the length of Sunday’s race and the tax that places on the engines, but I would expect most teams to focus on the first practice session as more of a barometer than the second.  Track temperatures will be much closer to the temps that could be expected as the sun goes down and the lights come on about half way through the race.

The challenge at the Coca-Cola 600 has always been finding that balance between the late afternoon heat, the transition between day and night, and finally as the track cools down and the grip increases. These challenges can lead to some very improbable and surprising finishes so do not be surprised if we get to see yet another FIRT TIME winner at the end of the night.

With that said, let’s get to handicapping the matchups that the folks at Don Best (http://www.donbest.com/) have already loaded for this Sunday afternoon/evening’s race.

As usual, I will quote my prices on these matchups based upon a 30 cent line (-150 favorite = +120 underdog).  *NOTE: Prices will reflect the expected performance of the teams during Saturday’s practices. Updates will be available due to any huge discrepancies of course.



Are we likely to see this again on Sunday Night? (Getty)

 #48 Jimmie Johnson vs. #18 Kyle Busch:  This matchup number will most likely come out higher than it should be based upon last week's impressive performance by Johnson and his team in the All-Star race.  Taking a closer look could reveal that Kyle Busch should have a pretty decent shot against Mr. Five Time and Mr. Six Time at this venue. Busch dominates in average finish since 2007at Charlotte with a 9.3 vs. Johnson's 18.5, but Johnson has performed much better so far this year at the mile and a half tracks, with finishes of 2nd, 2nd and 3rd.  With the qualifying advantage (doesn't mean anything in a race this long) and Johnson's recent roll, this matchup price could come out as high as -160. I could see that, but any higher at all will make me consider Kyle Busch for sure.

#18 Kyle Busch vs. #14 Tony Stewart:  Outside of Stewart's dominating performance at Las Vegas, he and his team have been less than mediocre at both Texas and Kansas with finishes of 24th and 13th.  Stewart also only has one top 10 in the 600 since 2007, so this has to be Kyle Busch as a pretty decent favorite in this matchup.  This just seems more like a top 10 vs. a top 15 car so let's go with Kyle Busch at -150 in this one.

#14 Tony Stewart vs. #99 Carl Edwards:  This one looks to favor Edwards and his team based upon season "cookie cutter" performance (7.3 vs. 12.7 average finish) with his three top 10's. They are very close in terms of Charlotte performance having finished one spot apart in the last two 600's, so let's go with a price slightly cheaper than Kyle's number due to the perceived uncertainty/unreliability of the engine. Edwards -140 in this one.

#99 Carl Edwards vs. #16 Greg Biffle:  With an average finish of 7.5 overall and finishes of 3rd, 1st and 5th in the other three similarly configured tracks so far, Biffle will easily be the favorite in this matchup.  As mentioned in the Stewart matchup, Edwards also has solid finishes at the 1.5-milers this year and Biffle's recent record in the Coke 600's has been spotty, but "The Biff" should be no lower than -140 in this teammate battle.

#16 Greg Biffle vs. #17 Matt Kenseth:  Talk about a battle of teammates, this one pits the two most consistent drivers in the series with only two points separating them in the overall standings.  They are just as close in overall average finish and driver rating as well, but Kenseth does have the edge in terms of most recent Charlotte performance while Biffle has it so far this year with his finishes of 3rd, 1st and 5th at Vegas, Texas and Kansas.  Only the qualifying difference will make Biffle the favorite in this one, but I prefer Kenseth in a race like the 600.  Still, Biffle at -120 in this great matchup.

#17 Matt Kenseth vs. #11 Denny Hamlin:  Denny and his Joe Gibbs Racing team have been really coming on strong recently with three top 5's in the last four races including a win at Kansas.  At first thought, this looks like a Matt Kenseth runaway, but Hamlin has been a little under the radar in terms of his performance so far this season. These two are almost as evenly matched as the previous matchup which was surprising to me when I saw the numbers. Hamlin is also 2-1 vs. Kenseth at the three similar tracks but I like Kenseth and this team a little more due to his previous 600 mile finishes.  Matt Kenseth -135 over Denny Hamlin here.

#11 Denny Hamlin vs. #29 Kevin Harvick:  Mr. "Where did he come from?" Harvick surprised everyone in last year's 600 with that most improbable victory as he motored passed Dale Earnhardt, Jr. in the tri-oval on the final lap. This matchup also surprised me before looking into it as Harvick has been surprisingly stronger overall than Hamlin at the 1.5-mile tracks so far with his finishes of 11th, 9th and 6th and an overall driver rating of 105.8 to Hamlin's 92.8.  These two are also neck and neck at Charlotte recently so this matchup is as pick 'em as it gets.  Both drivers at -115 in this one.

#29 Kevin Harvick vs. #24 Jeff Gordon:  I know I sure don't know what it is, so I can only imagine what Jeff Gordon and his Hendrick Motorsports team must be thinking.  There is just something missing with this team up to this point, as they head to Charlotte with an average finish of 22.8 and more finishes outside of 30th than inside of 12th.  They did manage a solid 4th place at Texas earlier this season, but also go to a track where they have three straight finishes of 20th or worse.  They will turn this around and perhaps they can start this Sunday, but with this type of inconsistent performance, Kevin Harvick can be no less than -150 in this matchup.

#24 Jeff Gordon vs. #5 Kasey Kahne:  Maybe if any driver feels Jeff Gordon's pain it's his teammate Kasey Kahne who started off the season with horrible luck and subsequent poor finishes.  At least the team, and all of Kahne's fans, saw that their cars were fast week in and week out which is the first step in noticing if a team is on the verge of success.  That is exactly what has happened recently with five consecutive top 10 finishes for this No. 5 Hendrick team.  Track stats, as well as season stats, are very close, but the momentum is all in Kahne's favor at this point so he has to be no lower than -135 in this matchup.

#5 Kasey Kahne vs. #88 Dale Earnhardt, Jr.:  Fans and the media alike need to stop focusing on this winless streak and focus on how consistently good this No. 88 team has been so far this year.  Both Biffle and Kenseth have a finish higher than Dale Jr.'s worst season finish of 17th which happened most recently at Darlington.  Before winning races, you need to be in contention to do so, and this team has been doing just that so far this year.  This type of consistency is perfect for a race such as the 600, proved by how close this 88 team came to winning in last year's event.  This is a close matchup based on performance and current form, but Dale Jr. should be no less than -145 over his teammate.

#88 Dale Earnhardt, Jr. vs. #2 Brad Keselowski:  Well, on the surface this looks like a complete one-sided mismatch based upon this year's results on the other 1.5-mile tracks.  BK sports two 30th plus finishes and an average of 26.3 and if it were not for his two victories at Bristol and Talladega, his 15.4 overall average would be knee deep in the 20's.  The surface holds true here as this is a top 10 to top 5 car vs. a top 15 car so if Dale Jr. comes any less than -180 in this matchup I will be shocked. UPDATE: Keselowski had two solid practices, so this price should come down to Dale Jr. at -150.

#2 Brad Keselowski vs. #56 Martin Truex, Jr.:  And another matchup I simply do not understand, as Truex, Jr. and his Michael Waltrip Racing team have been nearly as consistent overall as his ex DEI Racing teammate in the No. 88 car.  This 56 NAPA team simply dominated the most recent 1.5-mile track at Kansas only to come home with a disapointing 2nd behind Denny Hamlin and also sports an average of 8.3 overall on the other similar tracks so far.  Dale Jr. should be -130 over Truex, Jr. so let's go with the NAPA team at -155 over Keselowski.  UPDATE: Small adjustment to Truex at -145 here.

#56 Martin Truex, Jr. vs. #15 Clint Bowyer: We have a decent battle between teammates in this one, but it looks a little one-sided as well unfortunately.  The Five-Hour Energy team came on strong in this year's first 1.5-mile race at Vegas but have regressed since then while his teammate has really stepped it up, and now holds the edge in overall average, overall similar track average and driver rating.  I would prefer Clint Bowyer over Keselowski, so let's knock down the NAPA team just slightly to -150 over the Five-Hour Energy crew.  UPDATE: Small adjustment to Truex at -140 here.

#15 Clint Bowyer vs. #39 Ryan Newman:  Much like Bowyer, Newman's finishes at the most recent 1.5-mile venues have regressed with a 20th and 21st following his 4th place at Vegas.  This matchup is much more equal in terms of potential performance at Charlotte as there are not any distinguishing stats moving any driver over the other.  The "Army" on the hood factor on Memorial Day Weekend makes me lean to Newman at -120 in this matchup.

#39 Ryan Newman vs. #55 Mark Martin:  This is basically the exact same matchup as the most previous one as Mark Martin is a teammate of Clint Bowyer.  Even though Martin is not running a full 36 race season, he is being given solid equipment and has very similar overall results to Bowyer so far this season, so Martin has to have the edge due to his "swagness" to the tune of -135 against Newman.

#55 Mark Martin vs. #22 A.J. Allmendinger:  Now this is a very interesting matchup to say the least as A.J. and his Pennzoil team are coming off a most impressive performance in last week's All-Star race.  Allmendinger is also rolling up with two most recent finishes of 7th and 5th at Charlotte driving for Richard Petty Motorsports last season.  However, this Roger Penske team has not had it figured out so far with finishes of 37th, 15th, and 32nd in the first three 1.5-mile tracks and the price in this matchup has to reflect this.  I would have thought A.J. as a favorite at first, but Martin should come in at -130 in this one.

#22 A.J. Allmendinger vs. #20 Joey Logano:  In a contract year and with the recent rumors of Kurt Busch possibly taking over his ride in 2013, it is surely time for Joey Logano and his Home Depot/Dollar General team to make a statement this Sunday.  And what better of a venue for it?  For some reason, Charlotte Motor Speedway has been Joey's best statistical track so far in his young career, holding an 8.2 average finish in his first six races here.  He also holds an overall statistical edge so far this season and should be in the -130 to -140 area that Martin should be.  Logano is a solid long shot selection for Sunday as well with all these rumors recently surrounding this team.

Joey and his team have been great at Charlotte. (Getty)


#20 Joey Logano vs. #31 Jeff Burton:  As much as I like Jeff Burton at Charlotte, most of his success was with Jack Roush behind the No. 99 Exide car. I thought this team would have performed much better so far this year, as they are very close to Bobby Labonte's team in terms of average finish as amazing as that sounds.  Bettors cannot have faith in Burton this weekend even though these two are pretty close so far on similar tracks.  I would favor Joey Logano -140 in this matchup.  UPDATE: Small adjustment to Logano at -150 here.

#31 Jeff Burton vs. #1 Jamie McMurray:  Here is yet another sneaky driver this Sunday at Charlotte with Jamie McMurray.  I personally will never forget Jamie grabbing the injured Sterling Marlin's No. 40 Coor's Lite Dodge to his first victory in only his 2nd career start in the series at the fall Charlotte race to the tune of 50-1.  Both these drivers are very similar in terms of performance so far this year, but Jamie Mac has a solid edge of 12 vs. 21.7 average finish in the three previous 1.5-mile races and should get the money on Sunday night.  Same price as Joey Logano here, so McMurray and his Bass Pro Shops team as -140.

#1 Jamie McMurray vs. #42 Juan Montoya:  This is a pretty decent matchup between teammates as both have had similarly overall mediocre results with only McMurray holding a solid performance edge at the previous 1.5-mile tracks.  McMurray's driver rating is more than 20 points better as well, so he has to be no lower than -135 in this one.

#42 Juan Montoya vs. #9 Marcos Ambrose:  As impressive as Ambrose and Richard Petty Motorsports were during the first practice and eventually qualifying 2nd (behind his teammate), this team's performance has been more geared to top 15's than top 10's or better so far this year at similar tracks.  However, coming on the heels of a 6th and a 5th place finish at Charlotte last year along with their front row start, Ambrose is the easy favorite in this matchup and most likely a little higher than he should be.  Players will look to back this driver on Sunday, so Ambrose should open no less than -155.  UPDATE: Ambrose should climb to -170 in this matchup.

#9 Marcos Ambrose vs. #27 Paul Menard:  You have to prefer the RCR car of Menard over the Montoya piece overall, and Menard has easily outperformed teammate Jeff Burton so far this year as a barometer.  These two drivers are also very close statistically with only Ambrose holding the edge with last year's Charlotte results.  Menard is 2-1 vs. Ambrose on similar tracks so far and with both up front to start, let's go with the Australian at -125 here.  UPDATE: Ambrose should climb to -140 in this matchup.

UPDATE: This race looks to be a battle between Jimmie Johnson, all three Roush-Fenway Racing drivers (16,17,99) and the Michael Waltrip Racing drivers (15,55,56).  Mark Martin looks to have the most value for a potential race winner as well with odds in the 18-1 or higher range.

Have a wonderful and very safe Memorial Day weekend everyone!  Could there be any more racing for all of us to enjoy? My alarm is already set for 4:30 a.m. PAC for Monaco on Sunday morning.

Frederic Crespi has been in the Las Vegas sports book industry since 1994. His favorite sport to bet on is NASCAR and the prices listed above are his opinion on what the rotation matchup odds should be.

NASCAR Betting: Analyzing The Bojangles' Southern 500 Driver Matchups

By Frederic Crespi

With both practices in the books and only qualifying yet to go, let’s get to handicapping the matchups that the folks at Don Best (http://www.donbest.com/) have loaded for this Saturday Night’s Bojangles’ Southern 500 at the famed Darlington Raceway.

Although Regan Smith shocked the NASCAR world last year with arguably the most improbable victory since Derrike Cope in the 1990 Daytona 500, Darlington Raceway, with its unique shape and very tight racing grooves, is a true “drivers” track. The cream usually rises to the top and the matchup prices will reflect this much more so than usual.

NOTE: All driver averages and driver ratings mentioned will refer to only the LAST 7 races run at Darlington, or since NASCAR went to one race per season (2005).

NOTE #2: I will update prices if need be based upon qualifying results later this afternoon.

As usual, I will quote my prices on these matchups based upon a 30 cent line (-150 favorite = +120 underdog).

#48 Jimmie Johnson vs. #16 Greg Biffle: Looking at Darlington numbers and season numbers through the first ten races, this is a very close matchup. Johnson holds the edge in terms of average finish (11.4 vs. 14) but “The Biff” has the edge in driver rating with a 109.7 to 100.6.  The 2012 season is also very close, but Biffle has been too much of a top 5 machine not to make him a favorite in this battle.  Biffle -145 in this one.


No driver has been better recently at Darlington (Getty)

 

#16 Greg Biffle vs. #24 Jeff Gordon: “The Lady in Black” sure seems more like the “Lady in Teal” to Jeff Gordon and his Dupont team. Absolute domination at a track this difficult to handle is simply amazing.  Outside of last year’s 12th place finish, Gordon had amassed six straight top 5’s to the tune of an overall average of 4.14.  His driver rating of 116.7 is also very stout, but looking at 2012 results, it is still very difficult to make Gordon the favorite he deserves to be at Darlington. Biffle has just dominated statistically so far this year and is a perfect 10-0 vs. Gordon in head to head matchups so far.  Let’s knock Biffle a little lower than his price over Johnson based on Gordon’s Darlington dominance.  Biffle -140 in this one.

#24 Jeff Gordon vs. #18 Kyle Busch: Outside of three top 10’s including a win in 2008, the “Lady in Black” has not been very kind to Kyle Busch to the tune of an average finish of 17.1. Without Kyle’s current run of three straight top 10’s this year, Gordon would be at least a favorite of -150, but let’s give Kyle and his momentum some love and install the Dupont team at -140 in this one.

#18 Kyle Busch vs. #99 Carl Edwards:  This should be a very competitive matchup based upon both Darlington history and 2012 performance.  Edwards came in 2nd last year and also 2nd behind Kyle in 2008, and so far this year, Kyle has an average finish of 14 vs. Edwards’ 14.3 with very close driver ratings as well.  I like the way this No. 18 team has been running lately, so let’s install him as a slight -120 favorite in this one.  This could easily be Edwards -120 to -125 though.

#99 Carl Edwards vs. #14 Tony Stewart: “Smoke” has a slightly better overall performance at Darlington and also through the first 10 races of 2012 than Edwards.  However, outside of a 39th and 32nd place finish in the last seven, Edwards would easily have the edge at Darlington.  Stewart can be spectacular for sure, but this will be Edwards’ matchup to win.  Edwards should be installed as a favorite of -140 in this one.

#14 Tony Stewart vs. #17 Matt Kenseth:  Once again, both these drivers are very close in terms of Darlington performance, but Kenseth has been much more consistent so far in 2012. Edwards has been better than Kenseth in terms of Darlington driver rating (92.4 to 85.1), so let’s go a little lower than the previous matchup with Kenseth at -130 in this one.

#17 Matt Kenseth vs. #29 Kevin Harvick:  Even though Harvick has only one top 10 finish at Darlington in the last seven years, he is only behind Kenseth by 0.8 in driver rating. Kenseth does have the edge in 2012 performance both in average finish and driver rating, so he has to come as the favorite, and basically what he should be against Stewart, as both Stewart and Harvick are pretty dead even.  Kenseth -140 in this one.

#29 Kevin Harvick vs. #11 Denny Hamlin:  Based upon Darlington performance, Hamlin would be -180 in this matchup. His average finish of 6.5 and driver rating of 108.3 dwarf the 29 car’s numbers of 20.1 and 84.3.  This season’s results are much closer but with Hamlin holding a slight edge nonetheless.  Hamlin has been just too good at Darlington, so let’s go with the No. 11 car at -155 in this one.

#11 Denny Hamlin vs. #2 Brad Keselowski:  Yeah, okay, Keselowski has the third best average finish of 7.3 at Darlington (albeit with only three races run), but looking into his 3rd place finish last year, he did not have that good a car as evidenced by his 88.5 driver rating. Hamlin came home 6th with a rating of 104.6 and also holds the edge so far in 2012 performance. Hopefully, based upon that sexy average Darlington finish and last week’s win, the number comes a lot shorter than it should, but Hamlin should start no less than -175 in this matchup.

#2 Brad Keselowski vs. #5 Kasey Kahne:  The old Red Bull Racing boys sure as fire brought one hell of a piece for Kahne last year at Darlington.  Even though he finished a disappointing 4th, he spent each and every lap in the top 15, led the most laps, and killed it with a 135.2 rating. However, that performance sure was an aberration to that point with no Darlington finish higher than 20th the previous five years. This 2012 Hendrick team has finally turned things around (at least in terms of solid races finishes) with four straight top 10’s and they sure know how to qualify up front as well.  BK and his Miller Lite Dodge have the edge on both track and season performance, but this 5 car is coming on for sure. Keselowski as a small -125 favorite in this one.
 
#5 Kasey Kahne vs. 88 Dale Earnhardt, Jr.:  Who doesn’t love the crowd reaction at Talladega when Dale Jr. leads the field in 1st? It looks like they all collectively got the news that they won the lottery or something.  No way anyone can argue how solid this 88 team has been so far this year, as they head to Darlington with six straight top 10’s and a solid track history as well.  Based upon track and season numbers, this should be a Junior steamroll over his teammate for sure, but these two are drivers are 2-2 vs. each other the last four races. Dale Jr. and his team are dialed in for sure, but the 5 team has it going as well, so let’s go with Junior as a favorite of -145 in this one.

#88 Dale Earnhardt, Jr. vs. #56 Martin Truex, Jr.:  Both on track and season long performance, these two drivers are basically bump drafting each other the whole way. Dale comes into Darlington with a 12.0 average finish compared to Martin’s 12.3 with just as close of a driver rating. Junior has gained a bigger edge in season average finish largely due to the 56 car’s most recent 25th and 28th place finishes.  This is as close as it gets in my opinion but with more recent consistency, Junior should be -130 in this matchup. 

#56 Martin Truex, Jr. vs. #55 Mark Martin:  These two Michael Waltrip teammates are also very statistically close both in terms of track and 2012 season.  However, with Martin being the only active driver to start each and every Darlington race, we know he brings that “sperience” factor with him.  Just kidding around Mr. “Epic Swag!” This matchup is a complete toss-up to me, but let’s give the 56 car the small edge as a favorite of -125 in this one. 

Great chance at odds of 20-1 or higher (Getty)

#55 Mark Martin vs. #39 Ryan Newman:  Not by very much, but Mark Martin holds a slight advantage in season performance, but remember that Martin gave way to Brian Vickers for two races and Michael Waltrip for one.  Where this matchup separates itself is in Darlington performance even though both their average finishes are very close, with 39 holding a slim 10.0 to 11.1 over the 55. However, Newman has six top 10’s and four top 5’s at Darlington over that same seven race time span giving him the edge here.  Newman is a sneaky 20-1 or higher possible race winner as well.  Let’s go with “Rocket Ryan” -145 in this one.

#39 Ryan Newman vs. #15 Clint Bowyer:  This is basically a dead even matchup based upon season performance, but taking a look at Darlington performance, you would have to think there is not enough 5-Hour Energy in the world that could make Bowyer beat Ryan Newman this Saturday night (unless there is the old 5-Hour Energy in Newman’s gas tank trick…basically a 21st century version of the banana in the tail pipe).  Ryan Newman at -180 in this matchup.

#15 Clint Bowyer vs. #51 Kurt Busch:  Now this is a much more competitive matchup on paper for sure.  Kurt has an average of 18.0 with a rating of 78.8 vs. Bowyer’s 24.5 and 73.6 rating. Both are racing for new teams this year but Bowyer surely has the advantage with MWR three car operation over the single car team of James Finch and Kurt Busch.  We know Kurt can wheel around Darlington for sure (greatest finish ever??) but this team is simply at a disadvantage.  Bowyer at -140 in this matchup.

#51 Kurt Busch vs. #1 Jamie McMurray:  This appears to be slightly closer than the previous matchup, but McMurray and his team have fared very well at Darlington over the last two years with finishes of 9th and 2nd and an overall average of 15.43 (includes a 42nd). Add that to four straight top 15 runs this season, and McMurray has to be installed as a favorite of -150 in this one. I doubt this 1 car will get this type of love though…which would be good for a solid wagering opportunity.

#1 Jamie McMurray vs. #31 Jeff Burton:  This is as dead even as it gets for a Darlington matchup as both are right on the heels of each other in both track and season performance.  Without a crazy price attached to either of these drivers, you gotta have a serious need for action betting this one.  Each driver at -115 in this one.

#48 Jimmie Johnson vs. #18 Kyle Busch:  This matchup price looks to be a little less than the one vs. Jeff Gordon.  While Johnson holds a solid 11.4 to 17.1 average Darlington finish edge, they are much closer in terms of driver rating with Johnson only holding a 1.0 advantage.  Johnson -130 in this one.

#56 Martin Truex, Jr. vs. #1 Jamie McMurray:  This matchup is not as much of a slam dunk as it looks, although based upon 2012, it sure does look like a “Chocolate Thunder” special could be in store for McMurray. But as mentioned, Jamie Mac has been very solid at taming Darlington recently, so let’s go with the 56 as a favorite of -140 in this one. (Dating myself a little with the Darryl Dawkins reference?)

#99 Carl Edwards vs. #2 Brad Keselowski:  Even though BK has the edge in average finish at Darlington, Edwards simply has more track time and has been very close to bringing home the hardware here.  This seems to me as a very similar price of Edwards vs. Stewart, so let’s go with Edwards -145 in this one.

#48 Jimmie Johnson vs. #14 Tony Stewart:  This one doesn’t get any closer if track and season numbers are any indication at all.  Average Darlington finish of 11.4 to 11.7 in favor of Johnson, and average season finish all tied up at 12.5 apiece. The Lowe’s Chevy does hold a decent driver rating edge at Darlington, so let’s give Johnson the edge to the tune of -135 in this matchup.

#29 Kevin Harvick vs. #88 Dale Earnhardt, Jr.: Dale Jr. and his 88 team look to have a decided edge in this matchup in all track and season long statistical categories, so let’s go with Dale Jr. as a -150 favorite.

#17 Matt Kenseth vs. #5 Kasey Kahne:  Even with a three position advantage in average finish for Kenseth at Darlington, Kahne has a solid 11.6 better average driver rating. That however is largely based upon last year’s dominating performance by Kahne.  Kenseth in the -140 to -150 range in this matchup.

#18 Kyle Busch vs. #14 Tony Stewart:  This is pretty much the same matchup as Edwards over Stewart in my opinion, only slightly less, so let’s go with Kyle Busch as a favorite of -130 in this one.

Have a great and profitable race everyone!

Frederic Crespi has been in the Las Vegas sports book industry since 1994. His favorite sport to bet on is NASCAR and the prices listed above are his opinion on what the rotation matchup odds should be. His betting notes will be available weekly after the final practices.

NASCAR Betting: Analyzing The Aaron's 499 Driver Matchups

By Frederic Crespi

The folks at Don Best (http://www.donbest.com/) have already slotted this Sunday's driver vs. driver matchups and after two practice sessions earlier today, they have added another twelve to the already solid menu.  Basically, it makes a lot of sense as anyone who has followed NASCAR and any of the races at Talladega, knows that this race is completely WIDE OPEN so the more the merrier in my opinion.

With that said, let's take a look at what we can expect to see once the prices on these matchups come out sometime late Saturday afternoon.  I will quote my prices on these matchups based upon a 30 cent line (-150 favorite = +120 underdog). 

NOTE: We all know the drivers and teams that are the “favorites” to do well at Talladega, therefore there will not be much statistical information (avg. finish/driver rating, practice sessions and so on) in handicapping the prices on these matchups. 

Nothing but a jumbled mess at Talladega, but it's awesome! (Getty)

#29 Kevin Harvick vs. #88 Dale Earnhardt, Jr.: With his 2nd place finish at Daytona, it sure seems like this venue should finally end the 138 race winless streak and get the much anticipated 200th victory for Hendrick Motorsports.  Sorry, but RCR has been way too stout at ‘Dega recently and Harvick has been really solid staying out of trouble as well. “Happy Harvick” should roll out at -125. 

#88 Dale Earnhardt, Jr. vs. #18 Kyle Busch: This matchup looks to be pretty even-up to me.  Kyle Busch and JGR have been sneaky good at plate races over the last few years but have yet to translate that into wins.  However, Dale and his team are obviously dialed in so far this year, and outside of Kyle’s win at Richmond last week, he has basically struggled.  Dale Jr. -135 in this one.

#18 Kyle Busch vs. #14 Tony Stewart: Stewart has always been an incredible plate race driver over his 13 year career and should be the favorite in this matchup.  Not by much of course, but “Smoke” at -125 here.

#14 Tony Stewart vs. #48 Jimmie Johnson: Talk about a tough one here as the Lowe’s Chevrolet is the defending winner of this race and has been more consistent than Stewart’s Chevy in terms of finishes at Talladega.  Based upon that, let’s go with Jimmie Johnson at a -125 favorite.

#48 Jimmie Johnson vs. #24 Jeff Gordon: Gordon has been more consistent than Stewart over the years, but setting up these prices is largely based upon perception, and the perception is that Stewart has dominated at Daytona and can easily do so at Talladega. This should be a pk ‘em matchup, but Johnson at -130 is much more likely.

#24 Jeff Gordon vs. #99 Carl Edwards: Sure seems like Edwards is always near the front at the end at Talladega only to have craziness ensue. It wouldn’t be surprising at all to see Edwards join his teammates and pick up that seemingly elusive restrictor plate win. This is a dead even matchup in my opinion, but I like Edwards to break through on Sunday. Edwards -125 over Gordon in this matchup.

#99 Carl Edwards vs. #17 Matt Kenseth: Yet another very even matchup here, but let’s give the most recent plate race winner some props and install him as a -120 favorite in this one.  Biffle, Kenseth and Edwards will all be there at the end with that Ford horsepower. 

#17 Matt Kenseth vs. #2 Brad Keselowski: There is no denying that the Miller Lite Dodge has all the horsepower needed in order to finish well at Talladega. We all remember his unlikely victory in the James Finch owned No. 09 car in 2009, but this once again comes down to perception.  Kenseth’s Talladega results have been poor to say the least (one top 15 finish in the last 10 races), but we know better than that.  Matt Kenseth should be no lower than -140 in this matchup.

#2 Brad Keselowski vs. #5 Kasey Kahne: Kahne and his team have finally started to take fast race cars to solid finishes, coming into Talladega with three straight top 10’s.  This looks dead even to me with a slight lean to the Miller Lite Dodge based upon previous Talladega results.  Keselowski at -125 in this one.

#5 Kasey Kahne vs. #11 Denny Hamlin: Hamlin is another one of those drivers that is primed and ready to bring home a restrictor plate win.  Much like teammates Busch and Logano, he has always been fast but has backed that horsepower up with solid finishes. Hamlin is the clear favorite in this matchup to the tune of -135.

#11 Denny Hamlin vs. #1 Jamie McMurray: This is a very interesting matchup here in my opinion. At first glance, you have to think it’s all about the Fed Ex Toyota but McMurray has always been pretty solid in plate races in his various rides. Still, Hamlin should come in around -145 in this matchup.

#1 Jamie McMurray vs. #16 Greg Biffle: When I first saw this matchup slotted, I immediately thought this was a mismatch, even at Talladega. The points leader has been good everywhere and had a great chance to pick up the hardware at Daytona.  He is just way too steady and dialed in so far this year, and while it can be dangerous to hang too big a price at this track, Biffle should be a favorite of at least -165.  Just can’t see anyone wanting to bet on McMurray here.

#16 Greg Biffle vs. #15 Clint Bowyer: No driver has dominated Talladega recently like Clint Bowyer, but that was with Richard Childress Racing. Michael Waltrip Racing is no slouch when it comes to their plate program, but you have to give RCR the upper hand.  You cannot discount Bowyer’s success recently, therefore Biffle shouldn’t be much higher than -140 in this matchup. 

#15 Clint Bowyer vs. #31 Jeff Burton: Boy does this matchup bring up some unpleasant memories, as I was sitting on 40-1 on Jeff Burton at Talladega last fall, and figuring on that last lap that there is NO WAY Richard Childress wants his 100th win coming from a driver that had already committed to another team the following year. Still can’t believe that happened.  Jeff Burton will once again be heard from this coming Sunday and should be the favorite in this matchup even though he won’t be.  Jeff Burton in the -125 range and if this comes the other way with Bowyer, this will be a matchup that I will be playing for sure.

#31 Jeff Burton vs. #51 Kurt Busch: As much as I like Burton’s chances for a very solid run and finish on Sunday, I also like the chances of Kurt Busch, as he has always been a very solid driver in restrictor plate races.  He is a solid mid-pack long shot (25-1 or better) for the win, but I still trust Burton and his RCR team a little more.  Jeff Burton at -130 in this one.

#51 Kurt Busch vs. #56 Martin Truex, Jr.: You can basically toss a coin in this matchup, but Truex, Jr. deserves to be the favorite based upon his momentum. The NAPA Toyota should be right around what Jeff Burton should be over Kurt Busch or maybe a touch higher due to his propensity to finish very well so far this year. Let’s go with Martin Truex, Jr. at -135 here.

#56 Martin Truex, Jr. vs. #39 Ryan Newman: Newman has really struggled finish wise the last few years at Talladega, but we all know his Stewart-Haas machine can easily find its way to the front.  With those glaring recent finishes and Truex, Jr. being a top 10 machine so far, this price has to come no lower than -145 on Truex.

#39 Ryan Newman vs. #22 A.J. Allmendinger: Call me crazy but I like the chances of A.J.’s Pennzoil Dodge this weekend.  He has stated that he plans to try and run up front for most of the day in the hopes of avoiding the inevitable mid-pack carnage. Newman should still be the favorite based upon his pedigree, but not my much more than -135.

#22 A.J. Allmendinger vs. #21 Trevor Bayne: Bayne never really had any chance to defend his Daytona 500 win this year as he was caught up in an early race wreck.  This Wood Brothers entry is still a part-time team but we know they love to shine at high horsepower tracks like Talladega.  Bayne will get some love for his Daytona win, but A.J. should be at least -130 in this matchup.

#21 Trevor Bayne vs. #42 Juan Pablo Montoya: With back to back third place finishes by Montoya at Talladega in 2010, we know he can negotiate the draft and put himself in a position to win. The only problem is that it’s few and far between and Montoya simply cannot be trusted with anyone’s hard earned money. I wouldn’t play this matchup unless any driver is +150 or more and we know that’s not going to happen.  Montoya should come -120 and no higher in this one.

#42 Juan Pablo Montoya vs. #27 Paul Menard: I make it no secret that I really like RCR at plate races, and Paul Menard is no exception.  This is another under the radar driver that has a solid shot at taking the checkers on Sunday, and with that said, Menard should be at least -150 over Montoya.

#27 Paul Menard vs. #9 Marcos Ambrose: Even with my man crush on Menard this Sunday, you cannot fall asleep on the Richard Petty Motorsports car of Ambrose.  He will be fast as he and teammate Aric Almirola will be tail to bumper all afternoon hunting the lead. I would favor Ambrose over Montoya, so Menard should be -140 in this matchup.

#9 Marcos Ambrose vs. #78 Regan Smith: We once again have a sneaky pick in the Furniture Row Chevy of Regan Smith, as he and his team usually find themselves running up front at the plate races.  I think name recognition will result in Ambrose coming out as the favorite, but I would actually lean to Smith in this one to the tune of -125.

#88 Dale Earnhardt, Jr. vs. #2 Brad Keselowski: This matchup price will easily be over-priced by at least 20 cents in my opinion.  And for good reason as this is Dale Jr.’s house right? Uh, yeah…that was 10 years ago.  All kidding aside, we know this Hendrick Chevy will be very stout this Sunday, but anything higher than -160 would be a mistake in my opinion, even though I could easily see this price come out at -180.

#18 Kyle Busch vs. #48 Jimmie Johnson: I just prefer Johnson in this matchup and based upon the fact that Stewart should be favored over Busch and Johnson favored over Stewart, this number should easily be Johnson in the -135 range.

#29 Kevin Harvick vs. #18 Kyle Busch: I will very likely be in the minority with my opinion on this matchup as I most likely was with my price on Harvick over Dale Jr., but I just trust RCR and especially Harvick more than I do Kyle Busch.  Kevin Harvick at -140 in this battle.

#88 Dale Earnhardt, Jr. vs. #14 Tony Stewart: This is as dead even a matchup as you can have, but based upon perception, Dale Jr. will come out as the favorite in this one.  Anything higher than -135 may be too much however.  These two drivers have always liked running with each other so it will be interesting to see if they hook up or hang with their teammates.

#99 Carl Edwards vs. #2 Brad Keselowski: With Kenseth being a very slight favorite over Edwards and Kenseth at least -140 over Keselowski, Edwards should roll out as a minimum of -135 in this matchup.

#15 Clint Bowyer vs. #56 Martin Truex, Jr.: Nice solid battle of teammates in this matchup.  A great 2012 season so far or a dominating Talladega recent resume? You can’t really go wrong with either driver in the -125 range, but let’s go with Truex based upon his momentum.

#31 Jeff Burton vs. #39 Ryan Newman: Once again, it’s the stout RCR plate program vs. an equally accomplished plate racer in Ryan Newman.  As stated, Burton should be there at the end so a -145 price should be justified.

#22 A.J. Allmendinger vs. #27 Paul Menard: And some more RCR love in this matchup.  Based upon previous prices involving these two drivers, Menard should come in around the -150 neighborhood. Hoping it comes lower though.

#51 Kurt Busch vs. #78 Regan Smith: This would actually be a solid matchup in most of the races that the Sprint Cup Series visits on a weekly basis. These are basically two single car teams and the rumor that Kurt Busch may join Front Row Motorsports as part of a two team operation in 2013 makes this even more interesting. Do not be surprised to see these two drivers very close to each other all race long.  Based on experience, Kurt Busch should be the favorite here, but not by much more than -140.

#42 Juan Pablo Montoya vs. #9 Marcos Ambrose: As mentioned previously, I just don’t trust Montoya to deliver on a weekly basis, and this Sunday is no exception. I prefer the tandem of Ambrose and Almirola way more than Montoya and McMurray; therefore Ambrose should be at least -130.

#29 Kevin Harvick vs. #14 Tony Stewart: Stewart has all kinds of 'Dega street cred but I still favor Harvick in this matchup. Much like many matchups that involve the elite drivers and programs, this matchup can’t be much more than Harvick -125.

#48 Jimmie Johnson vs. #99 Carl Edwards: See previous post on Harvick vs. Stewart.  Edwards is due at a plate race for sure, but Jimmie has the edge with the previous trophies.  The Lowe’s Chevy at -125 in this one.

#13 Casey Mears vs. #47 Bobby Labonte: Love this matchup! Would like to see a David Ragan vs. David Gilliland and a Michael Waltrip vs. Tony Raines matchup too!  Seriously, at Talladega, anything goes and anyone can get there.  What about Dave Blaney after his “almost” super improbable win at Daytona?  I digress, but in this battle, you have to go with the experience of Bobby Labonte in this matchup as I wouldn’t be surprised if this No. 47 car hunts the top 15.

Have a great and profitable race everyone!

Frederic Crespi has been in the Las Vegas sports book industry since 1994. His favorite sport to bet on is NASCAR and the prices listed above are his opinion on what the rotation matchup odds should be. His betting notes will be available weekly after the final practices.