Thursday, July 16, 2015

Westgate SuperBook posts Harvick as New Hampshire Favorite

Lots of quality candidate to win this week, some at great odds.
LAS VEGAS -- The first step in handicapping Sunday's 5-Hour ENERGY 301 at New Hampshire Motor Speedway is checking out what happened March 15 at Phoenix and April 26 at Richmond, two flat tracks similar in distance to New Hampshire's 1-mile layout. If crew chiefs are scouring through the same data and use similar set-ups, there's no reason oddsmakers and bettors shouldn't follow suit.

Unlike last week at Kentucky when NASCAR tried a new down-force aero-package – which a smashing success (photos) – the package this week at New Hampshire will be identical to Phoenix and Richmond, which means not too many drivers are going to lead laps. Only four drivers led a lap at Phoenix, with Kevin Harvick leading the most (224) while winning his fourth straight race there. Only five drivers led a lap at Richmond, with Kurt Busch leading 291 of the 400 and winning the race. Not surprisingly, the four drivers who led laps at Phoenix – Harvick, Jamie McMurray, Joey Logano and Brad Keselowski – all led led laps at Richmond, too.

Let's take a driver-by-driver look at the New Hampshire odds posted this week at the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook.


KEVIN HARVICK 7/2: Finished third last fall at New Hampshire and won here in 2006, which was also the year he swept Phoenix and won at Richmond. He has a 13.8 average finish in 28 career starts at NHIS. No new aero package and the biggest smile in the garages because of it probably comes from Harvick.

JIMMIE JOHNSON 6/1: Three-time New Hampshire winner, the last coming in 2010. He leads active drivers with at least three New Hampshire starts with a 10.2 average finish. He's finished seventh or better in five of his past six starts and finished third at Richmond and 11th at Phoenix this year.

BRAD KESELOWSKI 6/1: He won this race last season and has finished 11th or better in his past seven starts. He led 52 laps at Phoenix this season, finishing sixth, and led nine laps at Richmond.

JOEY LOGANO 8/1: He won his first career race at New Hampshire in a 2009 rain-shortened event and then won again last fall. He led 35 laps at Phoenix and 94 laps at Richmond, and you can expect him to lead quite a few on Sunday.

KURT BUSCH 10/1: Three-time NHIS winner, the most recent in 2008. From 2004-05, when Busch was with Roush Racing, no one was better across Phoenix, Richmond and New Hampshire. He hasn't had a top-five finish here since 2010, but based on dominating Richmond, his odds probably offer the best value on the board. He should be considered in the same class as teammate Harvick for this race.

KYLE BUSCH 10/1: He won here in 2006 and was on a run of three straight runner-up finishes before finishing eighth last fall. He's only 78 points from 30th place and Chase eligibility with eight races to go. Things look safe, but let's not put too much into how dominant he looked last week because that set-up is gone until Darlington and won't be used on any of the five 1.5-mile tracks during the Chase. His driving skills will carry him to a good run, but his equipment and set-up for this type of track won't be as strong as that of his brother, Harvick or the Penske Racing duo.

Read More Here....complete list of Westgate odds

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