Johnson Early 7 to 2 Chicagoland Favorite at Las Vegas Hilton Super Book

By Micah Roberts

Coming into this season, defending four-time NASCAR Cup Champion Jimmie Johnson had six tracks that he had yet to win on. After 18 races through the 2010 campaign, the number has shrunk to three. He’s crossing off tracks on his “Things to do” list with almost every chance he gets. He took wins at Bristol and Sonoma earlier this year for the first time ever and his only failing so far has been at Michigan where he finished sixth.

This week Johnson has another chance at crossing a track off his list with Saturday nights race at Chicagoland Speedway in Joliet, Illinois, a place where he has the tracks all-time best average finish position of 8.1, but is amazingly still winless at. Then in four weeks, he gets a crack at the others on list with back to back races at Watkins Glen and then Michigan again.

He likely could have already had a win in the season finale at Homestead-Miami, but because of his situation in points and attempting to seal the season championship, Johnson has always taken a cautious approach for that race like no other.

Homestead-Miami has also been a tough track for Jeff Gordon who has the most tracks crossed off his career list. It remains Gordon’s only track that he has yet to win on which includes two others that are no longer on the schedule, but Gordon’s got a nine year head start on Johnson. For Johnson to be nearly hitting a career cycle on all the tracks in such a short time is truly a measure of how great he’s been over the last nine years.

Despite never winning in Chicago, The Las Vegas Hilton Super Book have opened Johnson as the 7 to 2 favorite to win based on a his terrific average finish position on the track, his current state of mind right now, and quite possibly because of accomplishing his "Things to do" list so well thus far.

The best value on the board may be with last weeks winner Kevin Harvick who is a two-time Chicagoland winner and has the second best average finish in track history of 8.7, just behind Johnson. Harvick is listed at 12 to 1 and based on his history this year on the 1.5-mile tracks, it presents pretty good value. If combining Las Vegas, Atlanta, Charlotte, and Texas -- even though they run vastly different from Chicago -- you'll see that Harvick and Kasey Kahne (15/1) are the only drivers to have finished in the top-15 of each.

Last years winner, Mark Martin at 30 to 1, may also present some value just because of his quality finishes on the 1.5-mile tracks this season. Martin hasn't wowed anyone this season like he did last year, but two top-fives and sixth on 1.5-mile tracks this season indicate he'll be pretty good this week.

Here's a look at the complete list of odds posted Monday at the Las Vegas Hilton Super Book:

LIFELOCK.COM 400
CHICAGOLAND SPEEDWAY

SATURDAY, JULY 10, 2010

JIMMIE JOHNSON 7-2
KYLE BUSCH 7
JEFF GORDON 8
DENNY HAMLIN 6
JEFF BURTON 12
KEVIN HARVICK 12
MATT KENSETH 25
CARL EDWARDS 25
GREG BIFFLE 25
KURT BUSCH 10
MARK MARTIN 30
TONY STEWART 20
CLINT BOWYER 20
JUAN MONTOYA 25
KASEY KAHNE 15
JOEY LOGANO 30
RYAN NEWMAN 40
MARTIN TRUEX JR 40
JAMIE McMURRAY 30
DALE EARNHARDT JR 30
BRAD KESELOWSKI 75
DAVID REUTIMANN 40
REED SORENSON 100
DAVID RAGAN 100
AJ ALLMENDINGER 60
MARCOS AMBROSE 200
SAM HORNISH JR 100
ELLIOTT SADLER 300
REGAN SMITH 500
PAUL MENARD 500
SCOTT SPEED 300
BOBBY LABONTE 500
TRAVIS KVAPIL 2000
FIELD 100

Roberts Guest Hosting ESPN Radio Show this week

I will be guest hosting on Sports Book Radio ESPN 1100 am Las Vegas from 2-3 pm (PDT) all this week through Monday. The shows can be heard archived or live on VegasInsider.com, or delayed on Sirius 98 Hardcore Sports Radio at 6 pm (PDT). The show centers around sports betting on all sports, and of course, I will have a few notes on the upcoming NASCAR race. Check it out of you get a chance!