2 #9 Chase Elliott (7/2) - He’s the best statistical road racer in NASCAR with a 7.8 average finish, seven wins, and 16 top-fives. Amazing stuff for sure, but he’s yet to win his last 12 on them including all nine starts with the NextGen car that was introduced last season. He’s led a bunch of laps in the new car and he was fifth at Sonoma, third at Chicago, and runner-up at Indy this season but he didn’t have the best car in any of them. He won the two Watkins Glen races before Larson won the last two. I think he’ll battle hard for the win, but his lack of wins on the roads should have his price going upwards like last week when he was 8-to-1 to win at Indy, but he lost and now he’s 7-to-2? He wants to make the playoffs and this will be the last shot where he has a weighted edge.
3 #20 Christopher Bell (12/1) - In 18 Cup starts on road courses, he has a 15.3 average finish which includes two wins and nine top-10s. Every race no matter where, he finds himself in the mix leading laps in five of his last seven road/street starts. I also like the direction that JGR is going in their road course program. He’s my top Toyota to finish.
4 #45 Tyler Reddick (9/1) - He’s the second-best active driver in NASCAR, or say the stats that show him with a 12.9 average finish in 18 Cup starts. He has three wins and six top-fives. He’s had two starts at Watkins Glen and finished in the top-10 of each. He’ll be in the mix for a win.
5 #99 Daniel Suarez (10/1) - Desperation makes him attractive to bet on but the weighted price doesn’t. Caesars is protecting against a problem that doesn’t exist and never exists – risk on Suarez. The desperation aspect is him sitting 28-points behind the 16th and final playoff spot. He has three top-fives in five Cup starts at Watkins Glen. He was fifth last season in the new car, the same year he won at Sonoma. He’s a live bet this week but search for better odds.
6 #34 Michael McDowell (12/1) - He comes off a massive win last week where he clearly had the best car proving so in practice and also the entirety of the race. He also had the best race of his entire Cup career at Watkins Glen last season, the first year of the NextGen car, finishing sixth. Watkins Glen is a much different track than Indy, but I think he’s established himself as one of the better road racers.
7 #19 Martin Truex Jr (15/2) - He has five road course wins in 48 starts while averaging a 14th-place finish. He’s become one of the favorites each time on them in the last half of his career. He had four straight top-three finishes at Watkins Glen, kicked off with a 2017 win, that stalled last season with the new car. He’s back up to speed now, all good.
8 #17 Chris Buescher (20/1) - He ended his streak of eight straight top-10s on road courses by finishing 11th last week at Indy. He was ninth at Watkins Glen last season. He’s always around the front and will likely be competing for the win.
9 #11 Denny Hamlin (18/1) - This is his best road course track and his car has been improving as the weeks go by. Last season's 20th at the Glen was a product of not having their NextGen car fully figured out. Now they’re fast everywhere. He has top-fives in four of his last six starts at the Glen which began with his only road course win in 2016.
10 #54 Ty Gibbs (17/1) - He needs points as he’s 49 points down from the playoff cutoff line and he needs to race his tail off like never before. He’s a good season on them this season with a best of ninth at COT and a worse of 18th at Sonoma. He was 12th last week at Indy. He also won the 2021 Xfinity Series race at Watkins Glen. The price is a bit short, but I’ll likely just have match-up plays on the rookie.
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