2 #3 Austin Dillon (25/1) – Can you believe there are 28 drivers ahead of Dillon in the standings? It’s been a miserable season. Just one top-five in the first 25 races. Stick a fork in him, he’s done. But is he? He won this race last season to make the playoffs. He won the 2018 Daytona 500. He has the second-best average finish (15.6) at Daytona among all active drivers. He thinks he can win and he’s got a strategy and I bet him because I know he’d wreck his Mama to get the win. For him to win, he’s going to need a few “big ones” to limit the number of contenders against him and chances are great that happens.
3 #9 Chase Elliott (12/1) – He’s much better at Talladega than Daytona where he’s averaged a 22nd-place finish in 15 Cup starts. No wins, two top-fives. But this is for a playoff berth. He has to win to make it and he’s NASCAR’s headliner. He’s the golden boy. He’s why we have all these road courses because he was the best at them. The idea was he would always be in the playoffs because he was sure to win at least one race on the road course. But he hasn’t won on the roads in two years since the NextGen car was introduced. If you believe in conspiracies, you would certainly bet on Elliott.
4 #23 Bubba Wallace (17/1) - He’s got a comfortable 32-point lead but as soon as you try to stay out of trouble, trouble finds you. It’s racing at Daytona. It’s best to stay out of trouble by running up front and I think he can do it for most of the race, and then not let out any daring moves until the laps 10 laps. He can guarantee a playoff spot by just winning the race. He has four top-fives in 12 Daytona starts.
5 #22 Joey Logano (12/1) - He’s one of the better superspeedway drivers and I’ll have a bet on him at a better price than Caesars. He won the 2015 Daytona 500, but it’s what he’s done with the NextGen car recently that has me liking him this week. He was runner-up in February’s Daytona 500 after winning one of the Duels three days earlier. He leads laps almost every time he’s been racing at Daytona.
6 #12 Ryan Blaney (12/1) - He was eighth in February’s Daytona 500 and he was fourth in it in 2022. He won at Daytona in the summer of 2021 and he was runner-up in the 2020 Daytona 500. Like his teammate Logano, he’s always got a car set up to lead laps and put himself into position to win.
7 #34 Michael McDowell (35/1) – He led one lap in the 2021 Daytona 500, the last one, to win his first career Cup race. He won at Indy this season for his second win so he’s not sweating the playoffs. But he was always someone who just hung around until making something happen with five to 10 laps to go. Gotta stay in it to win it and he does it brilliantly.
8 #47 Ricky Stenhouse Jr. (25/1) - He has no pressure this week because his Daytona 500 wins secured a spot in the playoffs so he can go out and win for his team. He’s been remarkably consistent this season which includes a 12th at Sonoma, a 13th at Watkins Glen, and a seventh at Pocono. All three of his career wins have come on superspeedways. I’ll have a bet on him for sure
9 #11 Denny Hamlin (12/1) - He’s one of the best at manipulating the draft to find speed that his counterparts can’t find. It’s why he’s a three-time Daytona 500 champ and why his 654 laps led at Daytona are the most among active drivers. He has 11 top-fives as well in 35 starts. He’s also running at his best of the season. His crew is on point and I see him winning his first-ever championship.
10 #54 Ty Gibbs (25/1) – He’s got two Daytona Cup starts at Daytona and averaged a 19th-place finish but this one is different. For one, he’s grown up as a driver and is learning new tricks from teammates and other opponents. Secondly, he’s desperate to make the playoffs but he’s in 17th position, one spot out of making the playoffs. One wreck can change the entire landscape of the standings and you can believe the “big one” that happens will take out several of the aggressive desperates.
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