High stakes for NASCAR Cup Series regular season finale at Daytona

It all comes down to this weekend’s NASCAR Cup Series regular season finale, the Coke Zero Sugar 400 at Daytona International Speedway, this Saturday night under the lights, August 26 at 7 p.m. ET on NBC, MRN and SiriusXM NASCAR Radio. If history is any indicator of what to expect this weekend, everybody has a chance at the win. 

Grasping onto the 16th and final available 2023 NASCAR Cup Series Playoff spot currently on points is 23XI Racing’s Bubba Wallace, who is hoping to make the postseason for the first time in his career. What bodes well for Wallace is there are only two drivers mathematically eligible to catch him this weekend. Joe Gibbs Racing’s rookie Ty Gibbs is ranked 17th in the Playoff standings outlook, 32 points behind Wallace, and in 18th is Trackhouse Racing’s Daniel Suarez 43 points back from the cutline. But what doesn’t fall in Wallace’s favor is the 14 other drivers that are eligible for the postseason that are facing a ‘Win or Go Home’ situation this weekend and will be vying for that final postseason spot making Saturday night’s showdown that much more intense.

 

Since the inception of the Playoffs in the NASCAR Cup Series in 2004, Richmond Raceway hosted the regular season finale from 2004 to 2017 (14 years), and then from 2018-2019 Indianapolis Motor Speedway (oval) hosted the final regular season event. This weekend marks the fourth time the 2.5-mile, high-banked Daytona International Speedway has hosted the NASCAR Cup Series regular season finale (2020-2023).

 

The NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs is currently operating in its third iteration of the postseason’s points system since its inception in 2004. The first Playoff points system (from 2004 to 2009) had the top 10 to 12 drivers earn their position in the Playoffs by points only. The second version of the Playoff points system (2010 to 2013) incorporated the top 10 drivers to get in on wins/points with the addition of two extra drivers referred to as the Wild Cards. The third version of the Playoff points system (2014 to Present) features drivers vying for the top 16 Playoff spots either by points or the ‘Win and You’re In’ rule. The third version of the Playoffs also instituted the elimination-style format with four drivers being eliminated from the Playoffs at the conclusion of each postseason round culminating with the Championship 4 battling it out for the title in the season finale.

 

Playoff Points System 1 (2004-2006 - Top 10 in on Points; 2007-2009 - Top 12 in on Points)

Four drivers have come from outside the postseason cutoff to make the Playoffs at Richmond in the first iteration of the Playoff championship format:

 

• Jeremy Mayfield in 2004 made up a 55-point deficit
• Ryan Newman in 2005 made up a one-point deficit
• Kasey Kahne in 2006 made up a 30-point deficit
• Brian Vickers in 2009 made up a 20-point deficit

 

Playoff Points System 2 (2010-2013 - Top 10 in on Wins/Points and Two Wildcards)

Seven drivers have come from outside the postseason cutoff to make the Playoffs at Richmond in the second iteration of the Playoff championship format that incorporates the Wild Card:

 

• Greg Biffle and Clint Bowyer are the two drivers that clinched the Wild Card in 2010 to make the Playoffs. Biffle was 11th in points with one win; Bowyer was 12th in points with no wins heading into the regular season finale.

 

• Brad Keselowski and Denny Hamlin are the two drivers that clinched the Wild Card in 2011 to make the Playoffs. Keselowski was 11th in points with three wins; Hamlin was 12th in points with one win heading into the regular season finale.

 

• Kasey Kahne and Jeff Gordon are the two drivers that clinched the Wild Card in 2012 to make the Playoffs. Kahne was 11th in points with two wins; Gordon was 13th in points with one win heading into the regular season finale.

 

• Ryan Newman and Kasey Kahne are the two drivers that clinched the Wild Card in 2013 to make the Playoffs. Kahne was 12th in points with two wins; Newman was 14th in points with one win heading into regular season finale.

 

• Due to a rare instance in the final race of the regular season that resulted in penalties being issued in 2013; a 13th car (Jeff Gordon’s No. 24) was added to the Playoffs. It was the second time in the Playoff Era the number of entries was expanded.

 

Playoff Points System 3 (2014 – Present - Top 16 in on Wins or Points/Elimination Style)

In the third iteration of the Playoff championship format from 2014-Present – Two drivers (William Byron in 2020 and Austin Dillon in 2022) have earned a spot in the postseason by winning their way into the Playoffs in the regular season finale.

 

• From 2014 to 2018, the drivers that won or were inside the top 16 in the standings that were expected to make the Playoffs did - no drivers raced their way into the Playoffs in the regular season finale on points or wins.

 

• In 2019, heading into the regular season finale at Indianapolis Motor Speedway, Ryan Newman was tied with Daniel Suarez for the 16th and final transfer position into the Playoffs. Newman finished eighth in the regular season finale to Suarez’s 11th-place finish, earning the final transfer spot on points into the postseason.

 

• In 2020, six drivers inside the Playoff cutoff (top 16) had not clinched a spot in the postseason heading into Daytona, but all six ultimately clinched their spots, led by William Byron, who became the first driver to win his way into the Playoffs by taking the victory in the regular season finale. No drivers outside the top 16 advanced into Playoffs in the regular season finale.

 

• Heading into the final race of the regular season at Daytona International Speedway, the 2021 season had produced 13 different winners with two additional drivers clinching their spots on points leaving just one spot still available to make the Playoffs, and it was Richard Childress Racing teammates Austin Dillon and Tyler Reddick battling it out for the final postseason position. Ultimately, Ryan Blaney won the regular season finale at Daytona International Speedway, but he had already clinched his spot in the 2021 NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs earlier in the season. Because of the repeat winner, the 16th and final Playoff spot was earned by points, and it was Tyler Reddick’s fifth-place finish to Austin Dillon’s 17th at Daytona that earned him enough points to advance for the first time in his career to the NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs.

 

• Heading into the final race of the regular season at Daytona International Speedway, the 2022 season had produced 15 different winners clinching their spots leaving just one position still available to make the Playoffs, and it was Team Penske’s Ryan Blaney in 16th and Joe Gibbs Racing’s Martin Truex Jr. in 17th battling it out for the final postseason position. The two drivers were separated by 25 points heading into the race. It was also announced Kurt Busch would forgo his Playoff eligibility releasing his position as he was still recovering from injury. Ultimately, Truex would finish eighth and Blaney would finish 15th, the Team Penske driver earned enough points to hold onto one of the two open Playoff spots on points. But it was Richard Childress Racing’s Austin Dillon, who came into the Daytona weekend ranked 20th in the Playoff outlook standings (-255 points behind the postseason cutline), that won the regular season finale at Daytona International Speedway, clinching the final spot in the 2022 NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs on wins – the second driver to win his way into the Playoffs in the regular season finale; joining William Byron (2020). Hendrick Motorsport’s driver Chase Elliott clinched the 2022 NASCAR Cup Series Regular Season Championship.