Micah Roberts' Top-10 Finish Prediction: 2023 Go Bowling at the Glen

Read my complete article on Sportsline.com

1 #8 Kyle Busch (12/1) - He has three wins on the season with eight top-fives and 13 top-10s and I believe he’s going to have the same fast car he’s had on the roads this season and that Tyler Reddick used to win two races last season. The RCR set-up for this No. 8 Chevy has been incredible and Busch took it over this season with a runner-up at both COTA and Sonoma and was fourth at Chicago. He has two wins at Watkins Glen. I like the price as well.

2 #9 Chase Elliott (7/2) - He’s the best statistical road racer in NASCAR with a 7.8 average finish, seven wins, and 16 top-fives. Amazing stuff for sure, but he’s yet to win his last 12 on them including all nine starts with the NextGen car that was introduced last season. He’s led a bunch of laps in the new car and he was fifth at Sonoma, third at Chicago, and runner-up at Indy this season but he didn’t have the best car in any of them. He won the two Watkins Glen races before Larson won the last two. I think he’ll battle hard for the win, but his lack of wins on the roads should have his price going upwards like last week when he was 8-to-1 to win at Indy, but he lost and now he’s 7-to-2? He wants to make the playoffs and this will be the last shot where he has a weighted edge.

3 #20 Christopher Bell (12/1) - In 18 Cup starts on road courses, he has a 15.3 average finish which includes two wins and nine top-10s. Every race no matter where, he finds himself in the mix leading laps in five of his last seven road/street starts. I also like the direction that JGR is going in their road course program. He’s my top Toyota to finish.

4 #45 Tyler Reddick (9/1) - He’s the second-best active driver in NASCAR, or say the stats that show him with a 12.9 average finish in 18 Cup starts. He has three wins and six top-fives. He’s had two starts at Watkins Glen and finished in the top-10 of each. He’ll be in the mix for a win.

5 #99 Daniel Suarez (10/1) - Desperation makes him attractive to bet on but the weighted price doesn’t. Caesars is protecting against a problem that doesn’t exist and never exists – risk on Suarez. The desperation aspect is him sitting 28-points behind the 16th and final playoff spot. He has three top-fives in five Cup starts at Watkins Glen. He was fifth last season in the new car, the same year he won at Sonoma. He’s a live bet this week but search for better odds.

6 #34 Michael McDowell (12/1) - He comes off a massive win last week where he clearly had the best car proving so in practice and also the entirety of the race. He also had the best race of his entire Cup career at Watkins Glen last season, the first year of the NextGen car, finishing sixth. Watkins Glen is a much different track than Indy, but I think he’s established himself as one of the better road racers.

7 #19 Martin Truex Jr (15/2) - He has five road course wins in 48 starts while averaging a 14th-place finish. He’s become one of the favorites each time on them in the last half of his career. He had four straight top-three finishes at Watkins Glen, kicked off with a 2017 win, that stalled last season with the new car. He’s back up to speed now, all good.

8 #17 Chris Buescher (20/1) - He ended his streak of eight straight top-10s on road courses by finishing 11th last week at Indy. He was ninth at Watkins Glen last season. He’s always around the front and will likely be competing for the win.

9 #11 Denny Hamlin (18/1) - This is his best road course track and his car has been improving as the weeks go by. Last season's 20th at the Glen was a product of not having their NextGen car fully figured out. Now they’re fast everywhere. He has top-fives in four of his last six starts at the Glen which began with his only road course win in 2016.

10 #54 Ty Gibbs (17/1) - He needs points as he’s 49 points down from the playoff cutoff line and he needs to race his tail off like never before. He’s a good season on them this season with a best of ninth at COT and a worse of 18th at Sonoma. He was 12th last week at Indy. He also won the 2021 Xfinity Series race at Watkins Glen. The price is a bit short, but I’ll likely just have match-up plays on the rookie.

Chase Elliott is +300 favorite to win 2023 Go Bowling at the Glen

 

9 CHASE ELLIOTT   Age: 27 (Nov. 28, 1995)   Hometown: Dawsonville, Georgia   Resides: Dawsonville, Georgia   Crew Chief: Alan Gustafson   Standings: 19th

No. 9 NAPA Auto Parts Chevrolet Camaro ZL1   INDY REWIND: Chase Elliott nearly captured his first NASCAR Cup Series victory of 2023 last weekend at the Indianapolis Motor Speedway Road Course. The 27-year-old driver rolled off the grid from the third position and steadily ran inside the top five throughout the first stage, ending it in third. Elliott followed that up with a fifth-place finish in the second stage. Late in the race, the 2020 Cup Series champion was in the second position, closing in on the leader but ultimately ran out of time. Elliott's runner-up finish marked his second top-five finish in just three starts on the 2.439-mile road course. BACK WHERE IT STARTED: Watkins Glen International was the site of Elliott’s first premier series win. He led 52 of 90 laps en route to victory in 2018. In just six starts on the 2.45-mile road course, the Dawsonville, Georgia, native has three top-two finishes, including two wins. Elliott’s most recent trip to victory lane at Watkins Glen came in 2019 after he swept the stages and led all but 10 laps of the race. His average finish of 5.67 is not only the best among active Cup drivers but also the best all-time among drivers with more than two starts. Among his other track-leading marks are stage wins (three) and points earned (220) in the stage racing era. Elliott is tied with teammate Kyle Larson for the longest active streak of top-10 finishes at the track (four). KEEP THE TOP FIVES ALIVE: This season, Elliott has three road course starts in the Cup Series and has finished inside the top five in each of them. The driver of the No. 9 Chevrolet earned a fifth-place result at Sonoma Raceway, a third-place effort in the inaugural Chicago Street Course event and most recently finished as the runner-up at Indianapolis – making him the only driver to finish inside the top five in the three most recent events on road courses. Elliott holds a series-leading average finish (3.33) across those three races. He also has the second-most points earned in that span (115). ROAD RACING RUNDOWN: Since the start of 2022, Elliott’s best finish on a road course is second (twice) – Road America in 2022 and last weekend at Indianapolis. In that span, he leads the series in top-five finishes (six) and is tied for the second-most top-10s (seven) across nine starts on serpentine tracks. Since the start of last season, the Hendrick Motorsports driver has paced the field for a series-high 129 laps on road courses. He has also earned two pole awards (Road America and Watkins Glen in 2022) and has a series-leading average finish of 7.11. Despite missing the race at Circuit of The Americas in March 2023 due to his leg injury, Elliott has the third-most points earned (311) in that time frame.  LEGEND IN THE MAKING: In 28 Cup Series starts on road courses, Elliott has an average finish of 7.64, with seven wins, 17 top-five finishes and 20 top-10s. His average finish is the best among active drivers and ranks second all-time among drivers with five or more starts, behind NASCAR legend Fireball Roberts.  WINNING WAYS: Elliott has proven his road-racing prowess, leading all active drivers with seven wins on road courses – most recently at Road America in 2021. He is also third on the overall list of drivers with road course victories, trailing only NASCAR Hall of Famers Jeff Gordon (nine) and Tony Stewart (eight). Elliott has victories across five different road courses, which is the most in series history.  VIEW FROM THE TOP: Veteran crew chief Alan Gustafson has plenty of experience on tracks where left and right turns are made. Across 49 Cup Series races on road courses, the Ormond Beach, Florida, native has led his team to seven wins (all with Elliott) – a series-high among active crew chiefs – 20 top-five finishes and 27 top-10s.    WIN AND IN: Elliott sits 19th in the driver points standings, 80 markers below the provisional playoff cutline with just two races remaining in the regular season. A victory would lock Elliott into the postseason. Between the two remaining tracks, Elliott and the No. 9 crew have two wins at Watkins Glen and a best effort of second (twice) at Daytona International Speedway. Currently, the No. 9 squad is the final team in the provisional playoff field for the owner’s title, 51 points above the cutline. GET UP AND GO: NAPA Auto Parts is back on board the No. 9 Chevrolet Camaro ZL1 this weekend at Watkins Glen. The Atlanta-based company was the primary partner for Elliott’s 2019 victory at the track. Get a look at all the angles of the No. 9 NAPA Auto Parts Chevrolet here. Chase Elliott, driver of the No. 9 Chevrolet Camaro ZL1, on how meaningful Watkins Glen is to him: "Watkins Glen (International) always stands out to me because of the first win. That one will always be special because of that. Will it always be good to us? Probably not, but I do enjoy going up there. It is a very nice part of the country – a very underrated part of the country. Just the memories I have from that first win weekend are super special and something that I will hold onto forever." Elliott on his outlook with two opportunities left to lock himself into the playoffs: "Certainly, don’t want to have yourself in a position to have to win at Daytona (International Speedway), but that’s a possibility at this point. I feel way better about going to Watkins Glen (International) than I do Daytona because there is more in my control going there verses a plate race."

Desperate Chase Elliott is +750 to win at Indy

 

9 CHASE ELLIOTT   Age: 27 (Nov. 28, 1995)   Hometown: Dawsonville, Georgia   Resides: Dawsonville, Georgia   Crew Chief: Alan Gustafson   Standings: 22nd

No. 9 NAPA Auto Parts Chevrolet Camaro ZL1   INDY REWIND: Last year at the Indianapolis Motor Speedway Road Course, Chase Elliott started eighth and overcame an early race spin to earn a fifth-place finish in stage one. He followed that up with a fourth-place result in the second stage. In an eventful final stage, the Dawsonville, Georgia, native raced as high as second and was in that spot when a caution came out with five laps to go for debris. On the restart, Elliott was collected in a multi-car incident in turn one but was able to battle his way to 16th after the race was sent into overtime. In the NASCAR Cup Series’ inaugural road racing event at Indianapolis in 2021, Elliott drove to a fourth-place result. In the two races at the 14-turn layout, he holds the best average running position (7.91).  KEEP THE TOP FIVES ALIVE: This season, Elliott has two road course starts in the series and has finished inside the top five in each of them. The 27-year-old driver paced the field for seven laps at Sonoma Raceway en route to a fifth-place result and followed that up with a third-place effort in the inaugural Chicago Street Course race. Elliott’s average finish (4.00) across those two races is the second-best mark in the series. ROAD RACING RUNDOWN: Since the start of 2022, Elliott’s best finish on a road course is second, achieved at Road America last season. In that span, he has five top-five finishes and six top-10s (tied for second-most) across eight starts on serpentine tracks. The Hendrick Motorsports driver has paced the field for 128 laps on road courses since the beginning of last season, which is tied for the most circuits out front. He has also earned two pole awards (Road America and Watkins Glen International in 2022) and has a series-leading average finish of 7.75. Despite missing the race at Circuit of The Americas in March 2023 due to his leg injury, Elliott has the sixth-most points earned (262) in that span.  LEGEND IN THE MAKING: In 27 Cup Series starts on road courses, Elliott has an average finish of 7.85, with seven wins, 16 top-five finishes and 19 top-10s. His average finish is not only the best among active drivers, but third all-time among drivers (with four or more starts), behind NASCAR legends Fireball Roberts and Buck Baker.   WINNING WAYS: Elliott has proven his road-racing prowess, leading all active drivers with seven wins on road courses – most recently at Road America in 2021. He is also third on the overall list of drivers with road course victories, trailing only NASCAR Hall of Famers Jeff Gordon (nine) and Tony Stewart (eight). Elliott has victories across five different road courses, which is the most in series history.  MEMORABLE MOMENT: Aug. 5 marked the five-year anniversary of Elliott’s first career Cup Series win, which came at a road course. The five-time National Motorsports Press Association’s Most Popular Driver Award recipient emerged victorious at Watkins Glen in 2018, leading 52 of 90 laps.   VIEW FROM THE TOP: Veteran crew chief Alan Gustafson has plenty of experience on tracks where left and right turns are made. Across 48 Cup Series races on road courses, the Ormond Beach, Florida, native has led his team to seven wins (all with Elliott) – a series-high among active crew chiefs – 19 top-five finishes and 26 top-10s.    WIN AND IN: Elliott sits 22nd in the driver points standings, 55 markers below the provisional playoff cutline with three races remaining in the regular season. A victory would lock Elliott into the playoffs and the team is up to the task. Across the three tracks remaining, Elliott and the No. 9 crew have two wins at Watkins Glen, a best effort of second (twice) at Daytona International Speedway and a best finish of fourth at the road course in Indianapolis. Currently, the No. 9 team is in the provisional field for the owner’s title as the team ranks 14th in those standings.  GET UP AND GO: NAPA Auto Parts is back on board the No. 9 Chevrolet Camaro ZL1 this weekend at Indianapolis. The Atlanta-based company was the primary partner for one other road course race this season. NAPA’s yellow and blue colors were on Elliott’s Chevrolet when he drove to a fifth-place finish at Sonoma. Get a look at all the angles of the No. 9 NAPA Auto Parts Chevrolet here.  Chase Elliott, driver of the No. 9 Chevrolet Camaro ZL1, on racing on the Indianapolis Road Course: "For me personally, I feel like it is one of the harder ones, if not the toughest for me. Most road courses that we go to have a little bit of character at some point, little bit of banking or a little bit of something. That place is just flat. Not really a lot of character to the road itself. Imperfections, bumps. Things like that. Just a very flat road course, which I find challenging because it’s hard to find ways to be different." Alan Gustafson, crew chief of the No. 9 Chevrolet Camaro ZL1, on the team's outlook for the remainder of the regular season: "Our goal is the same as it’s always been. Go out and execute to the best of our ability, minimize mistakes and be in position to battle for the win at the end. We have three great opportunities coming up to be able to do that and Chase (Elliott) is one of the best at being able to tune out all the noise and focus on the task at hand."

Micah Roberts' Top-10 Finish Prediction: 2023 FireKeepers Casino 400 at Michigan

Read my full Michigan article at Sportsline.com

1 #9 Chase Elliott (15/1) - He leads all active drivers with an eighth-place average finish. He started his career off at Michigan by being runner-up in three straight races. His worst finish was 20th in 2019 and his next worse was 11th last season. All 10 other finishes were ninth or better. He’s 40 points behind the playoff cutoff spot, but he’s got this place, two road courses, and Daytona to make it happen. Or he could just win here and get the automatic playoff berth. He was runner-up at Michigan’s sister track at Fontana in February.

2 #8 Kyle Busch (8/1) - He has three wins this season and one of them at Fontana, Michigan’s 2-mile sister track, stands up to be my first exhibit that he can win here this week. He has nine top-fives in 32 Cup starts at Michigan, but just one win back in 2011. He was in an accident last season and finished 36th, but he had nine straight top-10s there before the wreck.

3 #11 Denny Hamlin (13/2) - In 32 Cup starts at Michigan he has 11 top-fives, two wins, and 262 laps led. But his two wins came in 2010 and 2011. However, he’s been fast at Michigan in his last seven races leading laps in all seven and he’s been sixth or better in his last five. He’s knocking on the Micgan door for a win, and I have a feeling he expects to win there soon.

“I’m excited for Michigan,” Hamlin said. “Chris (crew chief Gabehart) has been telling me for weeks that we’re finally going to be able to get a win at Michigan together. We’ve had the fastest car, one of the most dominant cars there for the last handful of years. Typically, any time we are good at a track, we can tweak it a little bit to get better but the competition is also going to get better. We better be on our game, but I like our chances. It has historically been a good track for me and Chris.”

4 #19 Martin Truex Jr (7/1) - In 32 Cup starts at Michigan he has a 13.5 average finish. No wins yet, but he has 10 top-fives and he’s currently on a run of having six top-fives in his last 10 starts in 2023. He talked about his recent success this season.

“It’s so important to execute in the race these days with how close the field is and how hard it is to pass at certain tracks,” Truex said. “You have to do everything right. You have to do all of the little things right. We’ve been able to do that pretty well the last couple of months, for the most part, but really feel good about what we’ve done all year as far as the speed of our cars, and how we’ve able to race. I feel like we’ve had winning cars three or four races this year, already, and we’ve been leading a lot of laps and running up front each week. It was nice to get three of them (wins), but we would like to have more, so we will keep working on it.”

5 #1 Ross Chastain (17/1) - He had his best career finish in this race last year with 24th place. But he did lead the first laps of his Michigan career there, leading 29 laps. Between poor qualifying and poor races, you wouldn’t think I like him this week, but he was third at Fontana in February leading a race-high 91 laps.

6 #5 Kyle Larson (7/1) - From the fall of 2016 to 2017, he won three straight Cup races at Michigan when he drive for Chip Ganassi. He was the driver of the last non-Ford to win at Michigan. He is the king of the rim-riders running the high line and keeping his tires fresh for late in a run. Less movement on a run saves tires. I like him to run well here, but I’m still puzzled at what happened last week at Richmond.

7 #24 William Byron (8/1) - In eight Cup starts at Michigan he has a 14th-place average finish but his last five have been his best which includes a runner-up in 2021. He was 12th last season. He leads the series with four wins this season and this track might be win No. 5.

8 #4 Kevin Harvick (9/1) - He won this race last season. He’s won five of the last seven Michigan races. He has six wins overall on the wide 2-mile layout. And this is his last race ever at Michigan. He drives for Ford who has won the last eight Cup races at Michigan. Everything is there to say he wins again. But in the back of my mind, I know I haven’t seen the signs to trigger me to feel confident about a Michigan win by Harvick. Maybe I’ll see it during Saturday’s practice and qualifying, but I need some kind of a sign.

9 #45 Tyler Reddick (12/1) - He hasn’t had much success at Michigan with a best of 18th in his rookie season, but his style of rim-riding up high on these types of tracks does give him an edge that just hasn’t been recorded yet at Michigan for him other than an Xfinity Series win in 2019. I like how he ran at Pocono with second place and fifth at Charlotte, two tracks that require lots of horsepower as Michigan does.

10 #22 Joey Logano (14/1) - Every few seasons, he comes up with a Michigan win. His last win there was in 2019, then before that it was in 2016, and before that, it was in 2013. His next week should be soon. Maybe it’s Sunday. He was fourth last season, one of his eight career top-fives.

Chase Elliott is 14/1 to win at Richmond

 

9 CHASE ELLIOTT   Age: 27 (Nov. 28, 1995)   Hometown: Dawsonville, Georgia   Resides: Dawsonville, Georgia   Crew Chief: Alan Gustafson   Standings: 21st              No. 9 UniFirst Chevrolet Camaro ZL1   RICHMOND RUNDOWN: On Sunday, Chase Elliott will make his 15th Richmond Raceway start in the NASCAR Cup Series. In his previous 14 races at the 0.75-mile oval, he has collected five top-five finishes – one being a runner-up result in April 2018 – and six top-10s. Additionally, he has made four Richmond starts in the NASCAR Xfinity Series, never finishing outside the top five and earning a win in 2015. RECAPPING RVA: In Elliott’s most recent Richmond start last fall, he started 23rd at the Virginia short track and steadily climbed through the field throughout the 400-lap event. The 2020 Cup Series champion ended stage one in the 11th position and stage two in the eighth spot before taking the checkered flag fifth. During the spring Cup Series event this year, driver Josh Berry filled in for the injured Elliott. After being mired deep in the field for much of the race, the No. 9 team used pit strategy to get Berry track position. They ended the day with a runner-up finish. SHORT-TRACK PERFORMANCE: On Sunday, Elliott will make his 43rd short-track start in the Cup Series. In his previous 42 races, he has garnered one win (Martinsville Speedway in 2020), 14 top-five finishes, 22 top-10s and 1,491 laps led. This season, Elliott has one points-paying start on a track measuring less than 1 mile in length, placing 10th at Martinsville Speedway in his first race back following a leg injury. READY FOR A WIN: This season, Elliott has finished in every position inside the top five except for first. He placed second at Auto Club Speedway prior to sitting out several weeks for an injury. Since returning, Elliott has added to his top-five tally, finishing third at Darlington Raceway, fifth at Sonoma Raceway, fourth at Nashville Superspeedway and third at the Chicago Street Course. After starting just 14 of the 21 Cup Series races in 2023, the 27-year-old driver has five top-five finishes – tied for 10th-most at the sport’s top level. In fact, over the last six Cup events, the Dawsonville, Georgia, native has the best average finish in the field (7.83). PLAYOFF PUSH: With his 10th-place finish Sunday at Pocono Raceway, Elliott moved up to 21st in the Cup Series standings, 56 points outside of the provisional cutline for a playoff spot. With five races left in the regular season, the Hendrick Motorsports driver needs to average 12 markers per race against the cutline to advance to the playoffs on points. While pointing his way in is mathematically possible, the surefire path for Elliott is a victory. At the five tracks remaining in the regular season, the driver has two wins at Watkins Glen International and a combined six runner-up finishes coming at Richmond (one), Michigan International Speedway (three) and Daytona International Speedway (two). GREAT GUSTAFSON: On Sunday, No. 9 team crew chief Alan Gustafson is set to call his 35th Richmond race in the Cup Series. In his previous 34 starts at the track with five different drivers (Kyle Busch, Casey Mears, Mark Martin, Jeff Gordon and Elliott), Gustafson has accumulated 15 top-five finishes including five runner-up results, 19 top-10s and 625 laps led. UNIFIRST IS BACK: UniFirst Corporation (NYSE: UNF), a North American leader in providing customized work uniform programs, corporate attire and facility service products, is back on board as the primary partner on No. 9 Chevrolet Camaro ZL1 for its third of three races in 2023. Last year, UniFirst extended its partnership with Elliott, Hendrick Motorsports and the No. 9 team through 2028. Starting in 2024, the company will increase to five primary races per season with the team. Get a look at all the angles of the UniFirst Chevrolet here. Chase Elliott, driver of the No. 9 Chevrolet Camaro ZL1, on racing at Richmond: "When I think of Richmond, the surface and the age of the asphalt comes to mind first – just how that has changed the races over the last few years. You've had a lot of strategy options because there's so much (tire) falloff because the asphalt's so old. You end up having guys two-stopping stages and being able to make up enough time with their fresh tires as opposed to only making one trip down pit road. So I just think about the surface being aged and how that's impacted strategies." Alan Gustafson, crew chief of the No. 9 Chevrolet Camaro ZL1, on Richmond: "Richmond is actually one of my favorite tracks. I like the fact that it always has different lanes and, if your car drives good, you usually can make some progress. There are a lot of pit stops, and tires really matter there. All of those things make it a lot of fun, and the strategy can be super creative, which can help you a lot. It's a super finicky track. You either hit it or you don't. There doesn't seem to be any in between. This weekend it’s going to be hot and slick for sure, so that'll add another element. Usually when it's that way, it really spreads out and the lanes get really wide, so that makes it interesting, too. I’m looking forward to going up there."