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| No driver has won at Watkins Glen (33 races) starting 19th or worse. |
I always say that those long shot wagers are terrible bets in NASCAR and from my time behind the counter, I loved it when people would waste their $5 and $10 bets on drivers 100/1 odds or higher.
"Thank you, hope to see you next week, too." It was easy money for the sports books, including those that took the 'field' bet saying "anything can happen."
But in the case of Pocono, when I looked at it after the fact, I understood that rain is always a factor and six races there over the years have been called final before all scheduled laps ran, and several more delayed with threats of being called. That's where the "anything can happen" part has some merit and that "anything" happened to the most extreme on Monday. Here's 1,000-to-1 worth of scenarios that had to happen for Buescher:
First of all, Buescher needed rain to cancel Sunday's race. He also needed an earlier start time Monday and he also needed fog to roll over the track. He needed great advice from veteran crew chief Bob Osborne to stay out on the track the latest after everyone pitted despite being light on fuel himself. That gave him the lead. He needed the fog to be so thick, something rarely seen at other tracks, that the caution flag dropped on lap 133, and he could conserve fuel going at the pace car speed. He needed the fog to get even thicker to the point visibility was impossible causing the red flag to drop with 22 laps remaining, which made his lack of fuel problem a non-issue with the car parked. He needed an effective rain dance when he got out of the car on pit road playing the wait game. And then he needed the fog to hover more and another storm front come over and start dropping rain making it impossible for the track to dry quick enough and for the race to start again.
He got all of that to happen, 1,000-to-1 worth of scenarios. Buescher didn't have a top-10 in the first 21 races and with the win his average finish position this season rose to 27.8. The only rookie to ever win his first race at Pocono was Denny Hamlin in 2006 - 78 races all-time -- and 11 Pocono races had passed since a Ford last won there (Greg Biffle, 2010). Multiply all the circumstances that had to take place for Buescher to win you're looking at what should have probably been 100,000-to-1 odds.
The SuperBook reported that no one took a shot with Buescher at their book, so we can't call it the longest odds to 'cash', but William Hill's chain of 106 sports books had Buescher as part of the "field" bet at odds ranging from 200-to-1 up to 300-to-1 with 28 tickets written on it totaling $128.
Despite all that stuff happening for Buescher and a few people walking tall turning their $5 bet into $1,500, I still say it's not a smart bet. But then again, if I'm so smart, how come I didn't cash an odds to win bet last week? Congrats to all those who kept at it weekly with those 'field' bets that finally cashed.
Alright, let's get back to this week's race atWatkins Glen, the 22nd race of the season and final road course race of year -- put one in the Chase please, instead of five 1.5-mile tracks for the final 10 races.
It's quite a pleasant change to see drivers make both right and left turns after watching them drive in circles in all the other races. Some drivers thrive on the courses and have a decided edge every time out while others can't wait for the weekend to end and move on to a more traditional track.
Read More Here.......Watkins Glen Top-5 Finish Prediction
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