Friday, May 29, 2015

2015 FedEx 400 Odds: Jimmie Johnson goes for 10th Dover win

Jeff Gordon makes the final pass on Brad Keselowski last fall at Dover
LAS VEGAS -- We get to see some different kind racing this week as the Sprint Cup Series rolls into Dover for the 13th race of the season. The storylines have been similar for the five races run on 1.5-mile tracks this season, but in almost all the other races, someone new has stepped up to take the victory.

However, as we go through the history of Dover's high-banked 1-mile concrete paperclip layout, you'll notice one driver has had no trouble slaying the Monster Mile. Jimmie Johnson's nine wins are a track record, and he has won at least one of the two races there the past three years.

Because of Johnson's past dominance at the track, the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook has given his rating a huge upgrade this week, but at 7-to-2 odds, he’s still only a co-favorite to win along with Kevin Harvick.

Let's take a look at all the drivers' odds and find out where the best value rests this week.


KEVIN HARVICK 7/2: By the way I talk about Harvick and his lofty driver rating weekly, you might think he has six wins already, but he's only got two. However, the only two races this season where Harvick was downgraded were Martinsville and Bristol, and that was mostly because of his recent history. This week kind of falls into the same category, where you know he's going to be fast, but only three top-fives and no wins in 28 career starts suggest the Monster has gotten under his skin. Last season, when he was also dominating on 1.5-mile tracks, he finished 17th and 13th in the two Dover races. He might even be a bet-against driver in matchups against quality opponents at plus-money.

JIMMIE JOHNSON 7/2: We should have known we were in for NASCAR greatness when he swept Dover as a rookie in 2002, and here he is with a record nine wins on a track that has been running since 1969 and twice a year since 1971. With a win on Sunday, he joins Richard Petty, Darrell Waltrip, David Pearson and Dale Earnhardt as the only drivers to win 10 races on a single track. Think about it: nine wins in 26 starts; he wins every 2.88 starts he makes on the track. He has six wins in his last 12 Dover starts, and he's 24 laps led away from 3,000. Under the new Chase format, all Johnson wants to do is win, which makes him even scarier at the place he dominates. But it also makes him more volatile in terms of finishing position, which matchup players looking for big underdogs like to see.

BRAD KESELOWSKI 6/1: He's finished fifth or better in four of his past five starts at Dover, so it's clear he digs this place. He won in 2012 and was runner-up in both 2014 races. He's the driver with the best chance at keeping Johnson from another win.

KURT BUSCH 8/1: He grabbed his only Dover win in 2011 while driving for Penske Racing. Last season with Stewart-Haas, he was 18th in both races. While his prospects of winning are not overly exciting, there are some positives with Busch, such as leading 98 laps at Bristol in April. Bristol is a half-mile shorter than Dover, but the concrete and banking are comparable. The Tennessee short track is the only thing comparable to Dover on the entire schedule.

JOEY LOGANO 10/1: He doesn't have a Dover win like his teammate Keselowski, but he has been very consistent with top-10 finishes in his past six starts there. He was fourth last fall, and his career best was third-place, twice (Fall 2010, Fall 2013).

MATT KENSETH 12/1: In 32 career starts at Dover, the guy has 15 top-fives and two wins. He likes this track a lot and has been one of the most consistent in Dover driver matchups. You can trust him – he’s been seventh or better in 11 of his past 14 starts here. His two wins came for Roush Fenway Racing, but he's been every bit as good with Joe Gibbs Racing, including third and sixth last year. He also won at Bristol last month. JGR is flexing its muscles lately with wins by Hamlin and Edwards at Charlotte the past two weeks.

Read More Here....complete list of odds from Westgate SuperBook

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