2014 Texas Duck Commander 500 Preview: Favorites usually come through at Texas

Great theater last week with Kurt Busch and Brad Keselowski 

We get our second look at a high banked 1.5-mile layout this week at Texas Motor Speedway, but let’s take a moment to reflect on what we saw last week at Martinsville where Las Vegan Kurt Busch took a beat up car to end his personal 83-race winless streak. He radioed in to his crew saying that their ’day was done’ after an early pit road crunch with Brad Keselowski, and then went blow for blow with a hoodless and fenderless Keselowski for multiple laps, and then finally won on a track where four select drivers had won 17 of the past 19 races.

It was a magical ride for all of us, and with the win, he became the sixth different driver to win in the first six races. The ride would have been better is I actually had Kurt Busch at the 50/1 odds (Bet $100 to win $5,000) offered by the LVH SuperBook. The most encouraging thing is that there looks to finally be hope for other drivers at Martinsville like the days when 30/1 or higher payouts were common with Ricky Rudd, Bobby Hamilton, John Andretti and Ricky Craven. Lately, Martinsville has been won by the big favorites. So make a mental note for when they return to the track on Oct. 26 that longer shots actually do have a chance now.

Over the years, we haven’t seen too many upsets at Texas, so when looking at the best candidates to win Sunday’s Duck Commander 500, you might want to keep your eyes at the top half of the odds board.

You could categorize Jeff Burton’s win in 2007 at 35/1 odds as a longshot, but for the most part, the elite have won. And when getting to see them run in final practices, the eventual winner should become much clearer as the cream rises to the top of the speed charts.

One way to get a head start on who might be the best Sunday is look at what happened during the Las Vegas race from Mar. 9 won by Brad Keselowski. Both are 1.5-mile tracks with each having their own unique characteristics. But since it’s the only relative thing to go off of from this season, it should be an important part of any wagering equation.

In the Las Vegas race, Dale Earnhardt Jr. gambled with fuel mileage and was leading when he ran out of fuel on the final lap, whereupon Keselowski passed for the win. Junior would finish second and was followed by Paul Menard, who would be considered somewhat of a long shot candidate this week.

Joey Logano, Carl Edwards, Jimmie Johnson and Kyle Busch led some laps in that race, and Busch would go on to win at Fontana, which is a race that can also be applied into the betting equation this week.

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