Micah Roberts' Top-10 Finish Prediction: 2023 Cook Out 400 at Richmond

Read my full Top-20 Finish Prediction on Sportsline.com 

1 #5 Kyle Larson (13/2) - It’s hit or miss with him this season. He either goes big or he goes south quickly. He only has two wins so far this season but his nine top-fives are the most among all drivers. After last week where he thought he was wronged by his buddy at Pocono, I think he’ll be more focused than ever and this is the kind of track he’s been crushing it – the flat short track. He was third two weeks ago at New Hampshire, fifth at Gateway, won the All-Star Race at North Wilkesboro, won at Martinsville, won at the spring Richmond race, and was fourth at Phoenix after leading a race-high 201 laps. And he’s still pissed off from Sunday. I like that. This is the type of track where he’s been at his best this season.

2 #20 Christopher Bell (13/2) - The best average finish at Richmond among active drivers with at least two starts is Bell at 5.7. In six starts, he has five top-10s and four top-fives. In the Xfinity Series, he won three of four races there from 2018-19. Flat tracks are his thing. Flat tracks are also JGRs thing as an organization – 13 wins at Richmond among his three teammates.

3 #19 Martin Truex Jr. (9/2) - He leads the Cup Series in points and he's now the 9/2 favorite to win the Championship at Caesars. Three wins this season, eight top-fives, and 11 top-10s. At Richmond, he has three wins, nine top-fives, and 1,342 laps led. He comes off a dominant win at New Hampshire which applies here, and also runner-up at Nashville on June 25. This entire Truex domination run started with a May 1st win at Dover. He’ll be chasing the win, for sure.

“I love the track, it’s great,” Truex said. “Been very successful there, especially lately with our Bass Pro Shops Camry. Been lucky enough to win some races there. I really enjoy the track because it’s kind of unique. It’s a short track, but it races like a bigger track than it is. You can really move around there the way the tires wear out and the track is really slippery, and that makes it fun and a challenge, and it’s always a good race for the fans.”

4 #11 Denny Hamlin (13/2) - The Virginian has been racing on this track his entire racing career and he’s very good at it during all fazes of his career. He has an 8.7 average finish between in 33 Cup starts with four wins, 17 top-fives, and 2, 206 laps led. He also has three Xfinity Series wins on the ¾-mile flat track. He notched his 50th career Cup win last week in a controversial winning move for the lead at Pocono, but I didn’t see anything wrong. In fact, I would go as far as saying we need more of it. Race hard all the way. Fight for your position. Get angry, throw a few swings, and give the fans something to look forward to each race. In this case, we have best friends off the track – Kyle Larson and Hamlin – not showing any love on the track, the way it should be.

5 #8 Kyle Busch (8/1) - He’s the active leader at Richmond with six wins and has 18 top-fives and 27 top-10s with 1,530 laps led. In 35 Cup starts, he’s averaged a 7.2 finish. He’s also a six-time winner there in the Xfinity Series. The only reason I don’t have him listed in the top two is because he had poor finishes in his last two starts. The team didn’t look as sharp as they did winning three times in his first 15 starts.

6 #1 Ross Chastain (15/1) - He’s had a great run at Richmond in his last two shots at it with a career-best finish there in the April race with third place after leading 16 laps. He was running with the leaders all race. Last fall, he led 80 laps and won the first stage until settling for 18th. In the spring race, he was third in the first stages before finishing 19th. He is my wild card to win this week.

7 #24 William Byron (9/1) - In 10 starts at Richmond he has one top-five and 239 laps led and the best excuse for him to win this week, besides his series-leading four wins, is his Phoenix win. Phoenix, New Hampshire, and Richmond have correlated well with similar setups. If you win at one of those, you’re a good candidate to win at the other two.

8 #9 Chase Elliott (14/1) - He has an 11th-place average finish in 14 Cup starts at Richmond with no wins but five top-fives. He did win a 2015 Xfinity Series race at Richmond. He is in a desperate role right now where he needs to win to make the playoffs. He would be the guy I see trying some special pitting to gain positions to put him up front and give him a shot to win. I will search for better odds than what Caesars is offering.

9 #45 Tyler Reddick (25/1) - He started fifth in the spring race and finished 16th which is right about his average finish at Richmond. His best finish was 11th in his first Cup start there. I'm not betting on him this week, but I will have bets on him on the road courses at Indy and Watkins Glen over the next three weeks.

10 #4 Kevin Harvick (13/2) - He won this race last season which is why he’s he’s posted so egregiously low, but a 9.5 average finish in 44 Cup starts with all different cars throughout his career is impressive. He has four wins, 18 top-fives, and 1,235 laps led over his career and this will be his last start at one of his better tracks. He’s been eighth or better in 12 of his last 14 starts at Richmond. He was fifth in the spring race.