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| Kyle Larson won at Richmond, a good sign for NHMS. |
1 #19 Martin Truex Jr (13/2) - He won at New Hampshire in a 2005 Xfinity Series race but that’s been it for him in all NASCAR Series over his career. It’s considered a home track for him as Dover is, which he won on in May, but NHMS has been hard to win at despite an 11th-place average finish in 29 Cup starts. He’s had eight top-fives and 916 laps led, but no wins. This might be his final season and this is a track he definitely wants to cross off the to-do list. He’s been seventh or better in seven of his last eight starts and last season’s fourth-place finish after starting on the pole and leading a race-high 172 laps looked like it. He won the first two stages. He’s owed a win on this layout. He deserves a Cup win and this team has all the capabilities to get that win.
2 #20 Christopher Bell (5/1) - There may be no one better at New Hampshire other than Bell because all he does is win there beginning with a 2017 Truck Series win. He then won three straight races at NHMS in the Xfinity Series, the last being in 2021. And then last season he won his first Cup race there. That’s five wins in three NASCAR major touring series and he won the last Cup race there and he still drives the JGR car. He was runner-up in the 2021 Cup race as well. He deserves to be the favorite.
3 #11 Denny Hamlin (13/2) - He’s the active leader witha 9.5 average finish in 29 Cup starts at NHMS and has 11 top-fives to go along . He was sixth last season. You might bet him to win this race because you can see him getting better with this car on the smaller tracks and turning well in the road courses with poles at Sonoma and Chicago. He was third at Nashville and runner-up at St. Louis. His next win will be No. 50 for his career.
4 #8 Kyle Busch (10/1) - He’s a solid candidate to win based on leading a race-high 121 laps and winning at St. Louis last month. Three wins on the season and yet I don’t view him as a title contender for some reason. Perhaps it’s the inconsistent nature of RCR over the last decade that has my mind going the opposite direction of what’s staring at me right in face. Busch is elevating RCR to a status not seen in over a decade. And then he’s got the NHMS history such as three wins, 11 top-fives, and 1,134 laps led which is the most among active drivers.
5 #24 William Byron (12/1) - He’s notched a series-high fourth win through 19 races and he’s streaky meaning he’s live for Sunday to win again. His last win was sandwiched between two top-3 runs. His first two wins of the season came back-to-back at Las Vegas and Phoenix. He has a 13th-place average finish between five NHMS Cup starts to go along witha 2016 Truck Series win.
6 #9 Chase Elliott (12/1) - He has a 14th-place average finish in nine Cup starts at NHMS with a best of runner-up last season. He’s led laps in four of his last five starts. He’s still chasing a win after missing six races of points on the season. He needs a win badly. The good news is that when Elliott was out, his replacement at Richmond was Josh Berry who finished second. The car is ready for this. Elliott is desperate.
7 #22 Joey Logano (15/1) - This where “sliced bread” notched his first career win in 2009 on his home track. It was rain-shortened, but who cares. He won again in 2014 and has top-10 in five of his last six starts. He was runner-up at Martinsville and third at St. Louis. Good drive matchup play.
8 #1 Ross Chastain (15/1) - He’s had four Cup starts at NHMS with moderate success finishing eighth the past two seasons. That’s right about where I have him this week – competing well but not winning. But he’s still a good play in driver matchups.
9 #4 Kevin Harvick (10/1) - He leads all active drivers with four NHMS wins, 14 top-fives, and 26 top-10s. This will be his last run at NHMS which also includes a 2007 Xfinity Series win. The reason you bet him in match-ups or odds to win is that he’s been sixth or better in 10 of his last 12 NHMS races which includes three wins. This is a great track for him. He was fifth at both Phoenix and Richmond this season.
10 #6 Brad Keselowski (20/1) - He’s sitting pretty good in 14th position in points but if five more new winners arrive before him he’ll be sitting out of the playoffs again. He can get rid of that notion by simply winning and NHMS is a great place for him. Always has been. He’s second among active drivers with a 10th-place average finish in 22 Cup starts with two wins and nine top-fives. He also has two Xfinity Series wins at NHMS. He was seventh last season there.
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