Micah Roberts' Top-10 Finish Prediction: 2023 Quaker State 400 at Atlanta

Read my full Atlanta article at Sportsline.com

1 #9 Chase Elliott (10/1) - He won at his home track last season for the first time after leading a race-high 96 laps. His 11.3 average finish is the best among active drivers with at least two starts. I like him to win this race because of desperation. His snowboarding accident cost him six early-season races and he hasn’t been able to make up the difference despite NASCAR giving him a break if he wins one race before the cutoff date. Home cooking, desperate for a win to make the playoffs, it’s all there.

2 #1 Ross Chastain (17/1) - There have been three races at Atlanta using the superspeedway race package as they use at Daytona and Talladega and he’s led in all three of those races. Last season he was runner-up in both Atlanta races and this season he was 13th in March. This is a good spot for him to win and I like his odds at Caesars as well.

3 #6 Brad Keselowski (12/1) - Come on Caesars, he hasn’t even won the last two seasons. How about some 20-to-1 odds to win? Why protect a driver that doesn’t win? Why put a closed sign on him to win? If you see Keselowski at 12-to-1, it’s a strong pass. So my first suggestion is to find some better odds that give the bettors something to work with. Anyway, he’s a two-time winner at Atlanta but what I Like most about him this week is he was second in the March Atlanta race and led 47 laps. This has always been a track he’s been good at.

4 #24 William Byron (14/1) - He’s been waiting for this after going through a dry spot on the schedule. It’s been six races since he won a series-leading third win (tied with Kyle Busch) at Darlington. That win came in a scramble of four straight top-fives after another drought on the schedule. He’s been 14th or better in his last five starts. He won at Atlanta in the spring 2022 race after leading 111 laps. Good price on him this week too.

5 #12 Ryan Blaney (12/1) - I can’t figure him out. He’s got his Coca-Cola 600 win at Charlotte, the sister track of Atlanta, and he’s got four top-fives and nine top-10s. He’s going to make the playoffs now so he’s got to be point hunting, playoff point hunting. He’s going to try and win this race as he did in 2021. He’s led six of his last seven starts at Atlanta and was seventh in the March race.

6 #20 Christopher Bell (16/1) - He’s led laps in two of his last three starts at Atlanta and posted a career-best third place at Atlanta in March, one of his five top-fives this season.

“Atlanta has been a good place for the No. 20 group since the reconstruction of it,” Bell said. “I hope we can continue the momentum. The regular season Championship is heating up.”

7 #7 Corey LaJoie (25/1) - I was hoping for higher odds but the word out is that this is his best race package with Atlanta being his best fit. He was fourth this season in March and was also fifth last spring. But it was last fall when he was leading late at Atlanta that we all thought he had a shot to win his first career Cup race. He finished 21st after leading 17 laps. He’s oozing with confidence with it being Atlanta week.

8 #45 Tyler Reddick (25/1) - He had poor finishes last season at Atlanta but led laps in both and his finishes don’t tell the full story. Fast forward to March of this season early in his run in the 23x11 No. 45, the same car that Kurt Busch finished third with at Atlanta last spring, and Reddick finished fifth. Caesars is giving out nice odds on him to win this week.

9 #23 Bubba Wallace (25/1) - He doesn’t have any top-10s at Atlanta and has led only three laps in his eight starts there, which I find surprising especially in the last three using the superspeedway race package. He needs a win in 2023 and this might be it. Right now, he's in 15th positions in points, but he doesn't have much wiggle room for error.

10 #10 Aric Almirola (30/1) - I’ll have a small bet on him because I don’t want to be that guy when he’s leading, saying, “Dang, I wish I had a couple bucks on him.” I’ve done that twice in the last two years at Atlanta with him when he led laps. His best in the last three with the superspeedway package was eighth last fall, and I’ll bet he really likes Atlanta.

“I have always enjoyed going to Atlanta,’ Almirola said. “It has been a place that we are so fast as a race team. It’s been a place where we have led a lot of laps recently and I look forward to going there knowing we can put ourselves in a position to win. Unfortunately, both times we have led laps we have been wrecked out or cut a tire from the lead toward the end of the race. Things have to go our way, eventually, and I know we can put ourselves back in that position again this weekend.”