Micah Roberts' Top-10 Finish Prediction: 2023 AmBetter Health 400 at Atlanta

The fifth race of the 2023 NASCAR Cup season takes us to Atlanta Motor Speedway’s 1.54 quad-shaped oval with 28 degrees of banking in the turns. The track was repaved at the end of 2021 and the results were the cars going so fast they had to slow them down and use the superspeedway race package as is used at Talladega and Daytona. The first time they ran on it last spring there were 46 lead changes among 19 drivers. When the drivers came back in the summer the track changed a bit from the wear and had 27 lead changes among only 12 drivers. So the track is still fast, but will likely distance itself as its own entity away from Daytona and Talladega.

Visit Sportsline.com for my extended write-up and top-20 finish prediction.

Here’s what I’m liking this week at Atlanta with odds to win courtesy of Caesars sportsbooks:

1 #1 Ross Chastain (11/1) - He took to the new Atlanta very well finishing second in both races, leading 42 laps in the spring and 32 laps in the summer.

2 #11 Denny Hamlin (12/1) - I like him to be running for the win with five laps to go and then anything can happen. But he’s got to be in it late to win it.

3 #12 Ryan Blaney (12/1) - He was great last season at Atlanta finishing 17th in the spring, but led 15 laps and was leading at the end of Stage 2. In the summer race, he finished fifth and finishing fourth in each of the first two stages.

4 #24 William Byron (9/1) - He’s the favorite because he won this race last season after leading the most laps and because he’s won the last two races in 2023.

5 #6 Brad Keselowski (20/1) - In the two races last season, he was a playmaker again with the superspeedway package just as he was at the Daytona 500 leading the most laps the last two seasons.

6 #99 Daniel Suarez (22/1) - He was fourth in the spring after leading 13 laps and sixth in the summer. This is a great track for him and his team. I recommend getting some action on him in any type of wager.

7 #45 Tyler Reddick (25/1) - In five Atlanta Cup starts, his best finish was sixth in 2021, but last season he was a major player at Atlanta until getting in wrecks of both.

8 #10 Aric Almirola (30/1) - He is one of the best at superspeedway racing, grabbing his first two career wins at Daytona and Talladega.

9 #3 Austin Dillon (30/1) - When given the shot late, he makes things happen. He was runner-up at Talladega in the spring and he won at Daytona in the fall of last season. Superspeedway racing is his best chance of winning.

10 #4 Kevin Harvick (20/1) - In 34 Atlanta starts he has three wins, including his first Cup win in 2001, and led 1,359 laps. He probably should have about three more wins there when having the best car, leading the most laps, and having issues late to derail his day.

Starting Lineup - 8 Fords in starting 8