Micah Roberts' Top-10 Finish Prediction: 2023 AmBetter Health 400 at Atlanta

The fifth race of the 2023 NASCAR Cup season takes us to Atlanta Motor Speedway’s 1.54 quad-shaped oval with 28 degrees of banking in the turns. The track was repaved at the end of 2021 and the results were the cars going so fast they had to slow them down and use the superspeedway race package as is used at Talladega and Daytona. The first time they ran on it last spring there were 46 lead changes among 19 drivers. When the drivers came back in the summer the track changed a bit from the wear and had 27 lead changes among only 12 drivers. So the track is still fast, but will likely distance itself as its own entity away from Daytona and Talladega.

Visit Sportsline.com for my extended write-up and top-20 finish prediction.

Here’s what I’m liking this week at Atlanta with odds to win courtesy of Caesars sportsbooks:

1 #1 Ross Chastain (11/1) - He took to the new Atlanta very well finishing second in both races, leading 42 laps in the spring and 32 laps in the summer.

2 #11 Denny Hamlin (12/1) - I like him to be running for the win with five laps to go and then anything can happen. But he’s got to be in it late to win it.

3 #12 Ryan Blaney (12/1) - He was great last season at Atlanta finishing 17th in the spring, but led 15 laps and was leading at the end of Stage 2. In the summer race, he finished fifth and finishing fourth in each of the first two stages.

4 #24 William Byron (9/1) - He’s the favorite because he won this race last season after leading the most laps and because he’s won the last two races in 2023.

5 #6 Brad Keselowski (20/1) - In the two races last season, he was a playmaker again with the superspeedway package just as he was at the Daytona 500 leading the most laps the last two seasons.

6 #99 Daniel Suarez (22/1) - He was fourth in the spring after leading 13 laps and sixth in the summer. This is a great track for him and his team. I recommend getting some action on him in any type of wager.

7 #45 Tyler Reddick (25/1) - In five Atlanta Cup starts, his best finish was sixth in 2021, but last season he was a major player at Atlanta until getting in wrecks of both.

8 #10 Aric Almirola (30/1) - He is one of the best at superspeedway racing, grabbing his first two career wins at Daytona and Talladega.

9 #3 Austin Dillon (30/1) - When given the shot late, he makes things happen. He was runner-up at Talladega in the spring and he won at Daytona in the fall of last season. Superspeedway racing is his best chance of winning.

10 #4 Kevin Harvick (20/1) - In 34 Atlanta starts he has three wins, including his first Cup win in 2001, and led 1,359 laps. He probably should have about three more wins there when having the best car, leading the most laps, and having issues late to derail his day.

Starting Lineup - 8 Fords in starting 8

Kyle Larson is 11/1 to win at Atlanta

 

5 KYLE LARSON   Age: 30 (July 31, 1992)   Hometown: Elk Grove, California   Resides: Mooresville, North Carolina   Crew Chief: Kevin Meendering (interim)   Standings: 32nd

No. 5 HendrickCars.com Chevrolet Camaro ZL1   FOURTH IN PHOENIX: Kyle Larson was fastest overall in practice and won his 15th career pole position, earning him the top spot for the start of Sunday’s race at Phoenix Raceway. During the race, the 30-year-old driver won the second stage and led a race-high 201 laps. At the checkered flag, Larson finished in the fourth position at the 1-mile desert oval.  LEADING LAPS: Claiming the front position for 270 laps thus far, Larson has led the most laps of any driver in the Cup Series in 2023. This mark puts the Elk Grove, California, native tied for fourth with Jimmie Johnson's 2005 tally (and behind Jeff Gordon in 1995 and 2001 and Terry Labonte in 1996) for the most laps led by a Hendrick Motorsports driver through four races.  THE NO. 5 IS HEATING UP: Larson is one of only five drivers – along with teammates Alex Bowman and William Byron – to earn multiple top-five finishes to start the season. He earned those finishes over the past two weekends at Las Vegas Motor Speedway (second) and Phoenix (fourth). Those two races also rank in the top 10 among his best races based on average position – 1.4 at Phoenix (ranks tied for third) and 2.2 at Las Vegas (ranks 10th). The 2021 Cup Series champion is second in most laps run in the top five (638) and fourth in most laps run in the top 10 (707).  300TH NASCAR START: This Sunday at Atlanta Motor Speedway, Larson will hit a career milestone. The green flag at the 1.54-mile track will symbolize Larson’s 300th start in the Cup Series. He will be the 99th driver to hit this mark. After making his Cup Series debut at Charlotte Motor Speedway for HScott Motorsports, Larson drove for Chip Ganassi Racing (from 2014 to 2020) and has been with Hendrick Motorsports since 2021. He will look to be the eighth driver and the first since Brad Keselowski (at Talladega in October 2017) to be victorious in his 300th Cup Series start. To date with 299 starts, Larson has earned 19 wins, 91 top fives, 148 top 10s, 43 stage wins and one championship. RACING IN THE ATL: Larson’s 419 laps led at the Hampton, Georgia, venue is the most by a driver without a win and are his sixth-most at a track on the current series schedule. The two-time runner-up finisher at Atlanta has four top-10 results in 10 starts at the track. PIT POWER: The No. 5 pit crew has the eighth-best average four-tire stop time through four races at 11.493 seconds. The team’s five-man pit crew consists of Blaine Anderson (front-tire changer), R.J. Barnette (tire carrier), Brandon Harder (fueler), Brandon Johnson (jackman) and Calvin Teague (rear-tire changer).   HENDRICKCARS.COM IS HOME: The Atlanta race marks the first 2023 home race for the No. 5 HendrickCars.com team. Respectively, the No. 5 driver and crew can be found in their white firesuits this weekend. In addition, Hendrick Automotive Group is celebrating with a new exclusive hat program for fans. For every home race this season (15 total), there will be a unique hat that is released the week of the race and only available for sale at the trackside merchandise haulers, or available to win on HendrickCars.com. Less than 100 of each limited-edition hat will be made available to the public. See this week’s hat, which will be revealed at noon ET on Thursday, here.  ATLANTA AUTOMOTIVE NEEDS & BEYOND: The extended Atlanta market is home to nine Hendrick Automotive Group dealerships. Not located in Georgia? You can pick from any one of Hendrick Automotive Group’s 95 dealerships nationwide. Customers can also shop from the convenience of their home by selecting the category, make, model and vehicle packages that are important to them from the nearly 30,000 new, high-quality pre-owned and certified cars, trucks and SUVs available at HendrickCars.com. WE’RE HIRING: Join 10,000+ others nationwide in working at Hendrick Automotive Group. Hendrick is hiring technicians and other positions at its dealerships throughout the country. Positions are open for all skill levels and offer tuition and training reimbursement. Individuals who are interested can apply at HendrickCars.com. Kyle Larson, driver of the No. 5 Chevrolet Camaro ZL1, on the season so far: "We had a shot to win in Daytona and I crashed. In Fontana, we had the mechanical issue early in the race, but fixed it and the last two runs of the race we were by far the fastest car. In Vegas, we were the second-best car to William (Byron) and finished second. In Phoenix, again, we had a great car there and had a shot to win late. No win in the column, but I’m super pleased with our performance and look forward to every upcoming race. I feel like no matter where we go right now, we will have a shot at a good finish and hopefully some wins along the way."

Red Hot William Byron heads to Atlanta looking for third straight victory in 2023

The last two NASCAR Cup Series races have seen cautions in the final laps giving Hendrick Motorsports driver William Byron the last chance opportunities he needed to snag the two victories at Las Vegas Motor Speedway and Phoenix Raceway. Now, the 25-year-old, Byron, heads to Atlanta Motor Speedway for the Ambetter Health 400 on Sunday, March 19 at 3 p.m. ET (FOX, PRN and SiriusXM NASCAR Radio) looking for his third straight victory in the NASCAR Cup Series. If he accomplishes the feat this weekend, he will become just the sixth active driver to win three or more consecutive NASCAR Cup Series races and the 25th all-time. Byron is the defending spring race winner of the newly remodeled Atlanta Motor Speedway, taking the win over second-place Ross Chastain by a scant 0.145-second last season – the fourth closest finish in the series at Atlanta all-time.

The five active drivers that have won three or more consecutive Cup races are Kyle Larson (twice in 2021), Kyle Busch (2015, 2018), Brad Keselowski (2018), Kevin Harvick (2018) and Joey Logano (2015).

In four starts this season, Byron has put up two wins (Las Vegas, Phoenix) and has led 240 laps. His average finish this year is 15.3. His season-to-date driver rating is 107.2 (series-best), his average running position is 7.8 (second-best) and he has spent 84.1% of his laps completed running in the top-15.

Looking ahead to this weekend at Atlanta, Byron has made seven series starts at the 1.54-mile track posting one win (2022), one top five and two top 10s.

Christopher Bell is 12/1 to win at Atlanta

Christopher Bell / No. 20 DEWALT Toyota Camry TRD Preview

Ambetter Health 400 at Atlanta Motor Speedway

 

No. 20 DEWALT Toyota Camry TRD News and Notes:

• ATLANTA BOUND: Christopher Bell heads to Atlanta Motor Speedway (AMS) to make his sixth NASCAR Cup Series (NCS) start at the 1.54-mile track this weekend. 
• ATLANTA 2022: One year ago, Bell started back in the field since qualifying was cancelled due to rain but worked his way forward throughout the race. While battling inside the top three Bell got pushed below the white line and was penalized post-race. Bell crossed the finish line second but due to the penalty was scored the last car on the lead lap and credited with a 23^rd-place finish. Qualifying was again rained out in the fall of 2022, which lined up Bell in the 15^th position. Bell reported the handling was a little loose over stage one. In stage two, while running inside the top 10, a wreck unfolded ahead, and Bell got into the back of another car. Luckily the damage was not severe, and he was able to continue. Despite adjustments throughout the race the loose handling returned and caused Bell to spin out on the track with 25 to go. The tire came off the car on the stop and Bell got stuck on pit road, losing a lap to the field. Under a late race caution Bell was the “lucky dog” recipient and got back on the lead lap, crossing the finish line 19^th. 
• ATLANTA HISTORY: In the NASCAR Xfinity Series (NXS) at AMS, Bell has one win, one pole, two top-five and two top-10 finishes.  Bell also has one win, one top-five and one top-10 finish in two-career NASCAR Craftsman Truck Series starts at AMS. 
• DEWALT HOOD: DEWALT will feature McKenney’s on the lower hood of the No. 20 Toyota Camry TRD this weekend at AMS. For more information about McKenney’s, visit https://www.mckenneys.com/
• DEWALT DECKLID: DEWALT will feature KipperTool on the decklid this weekend at Atlanta. For more information about KipperTool, visit https://www.kippertool.com/
• PHOENIX RECAP: Bell qualified fifth at Phoenix and had a fast car throughout stage one, finishing the opening 60 lap segment third. He continued to run inside the top 10 throughout stage two. Bell started the final stage from sixth but lost some ground during a pit stop late in the race. He rebounded and survived NASCAR over-time to finish sixth at Phoenix.
• JOE GIBBS RACING AT ATLANTA: Joe Gibbs Racing has earned 11 NCS victories at Atlanta. In 127 combined starts, the organization has tallied 11 wins, 41 top-five finishes, 59 top-10s and 2,865 laps led.  The championship-winning organization has won six pole awards with an average start of 14.9 an average finish of 14.6. 
• RACE INFO: The Ambetter Health 400 at Atlanta Motor Speedway begins at 3:00 p.m. ET on Sunday, March 9, 2023. The race will be broadcast live on FOX, Sirius XM 90, and PRN Radio.

 

From the Cockpit:

Christopher Bell: “I thought there was a pretty big difference in the track from the first race to the second last year, now heading into race three on the new track surface I’m excited to see what will happen, hopefully it will age quickly. The first race there was very much a speedway race and I had more handling complaints in the second race. Atlanta is very unique now and the more that it ages it is going to continue to get more on it’s own island, it should continue to wear and lose grip.”

 

Bell’s Career NASCAR Cup Series Stats at Atlanta Motor Speedway:

Starts	Wins	Top 5	Top 10	Poles	Laps Led	Avg. Start	Avg. Finish
5	0	0	1	0	16	16.2	17.8

 

Bell’s 2023 NASCAR Cup Series Season Stats:

Starts	Wins	Top 5	Top 10	Poles	Laps Led	Avg. Start	Avg. Finish
4	0	2	3	0	21	5.3	11.5

 

Bell’s Career NASCAR Cup Series Season Stats:

Starts	Wins	Top 5	Top 10	Poles	Laps Led	Avg. Start	Avg. Finish
112	4	23	46	4	712	14.8	16.4

 

 

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Martin Truex Jr. is 22/1 to win at Atlanta

 

Martin Truex Jr. Atlanta Advance No. 19 Bass Pro Shops Toyota Camry TRD for Joe Gibbs Racing

Event Overview

● Event: Ambetter Health 400 (Round 5 of 36) ● Time/Date: 3 p.m. EDT on Sunday, March 19 ● Location: Atlanta Motor Speedway ● Layout: 1.5-mile oval ● Laps/Miles: 260 laps/400 miles ● Stage Lengths: Stage 1: 60 laps / Stage 2: 100 laps / Final Stage: 100 laps ● TV/Radio: FOX / PRN / SiriusXM NASCAR Radio

Notes of Interest

● Truex and the No. 19 Bass Pro Shops Toyota Camry team for Joe Gibbs Racing (JGR) set the tone for the season right out of the gate by winning the 150-lap feature in the non-points Clash at the Coliseum on Feb. 5 in Los Angeles. Truex won his heat race, then went on to lead the final 25 laps of the feature en route to the victory.   ● Looking for No. 1: Truex is still seeking his first Atlanta win. Among his 26 Cup Series starts at Atlanta, Truex has finished 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th, 6th, 7th, 8th, 9th, 10th, 11th, and 12th in a Cup Series race during his career at the 1.5-mile oval.   ● Prior to the 2022 season, the 1.5-mile Atlanta oval was repaved, its banking in the turns increased from 24 to 28 degrees, and the track reconfigured to vary from 40 to 55 feet. The frontstretch width is now 52 feet while the backstretch and turns are set at 42 and 40 feet wide, respectively. With the repave and reconfiguration, the racing at Atlanta was drastically changed and now more resembles racing at the superspeedways at Daytona (Fla.) International Speedway and Talladega (Ala.) Superspeedway.   ● Truex has six top-five finishes and 13 top-10s and has led a total of 383 laps in 26 career NASCAR Cup Series starts at Atlanta. Truex’s average Atlanta finish is 15.0. In his last 13 races at Atlanta – 11 on the old surface and two after the repave and banking reconfiguration, Truex has scored six top-fives and 11 top-10s there.   ● Ahead at this Stage: Truex leads the NASCAR Cup Series with 56 stage wins since the beginning of the stage era in 2017. He is the only driver with 10 or more stage sweeps, as well. While Truex came close to winning a stage at the season-opening Daytona 500, he does not have a stage win so far this year.   ● With his 17th-place finish at Phoenix last weekend, Truex heads to Atlanta 10th in the standings with 122 points, 32 out of the lead.

Martin Truex Jr., Driver of the No. 19 Bass Pro Shops Toyota Camry TRD

With the repaving and reconfiguration of the Atlanta oval before last season, would you qualify it as a speedway race, and what are the new challenges there because of those changes?   “It’s definitely a speedway race, no question about it. Last spring, we led some laps and we were leading there and had a late caution and restarted on the front row. We got a good shove down into (turn) one and (turn) two, and (Corey) Lajoie was leading the inside lane and got up inside of me, and Chase Elliott was stuck up in the middle of us and got us three wide and got into me and shoved me up the hill and got me out of line, and that was it. Sort of what happens at those types of places – you can be in the best spot possible, but you have to count on other guys to help you and sometimes it just doesn’t work out. All I can do is hope we are in the same position this weekend with our Bass Pro Shops Camry TRD and maybe things will work out a little bit better in our favor and we can bring home the win.”   How much has superspeedway-style racing changed with the NextGen cars?   “Certainly, I count Atlanta among the speedways now, but I would say that the superspeedways haven’t changed as much as the other tracks with this car. Just the way you can bump draft with this car and the way it drafts is completely different than the previous-generation car. I think right now there are a lot more options as far as how lanes work. Used to be that you would never want anyone on your outside, and now you can pass guys on the bottom a bit easier. So it creates opportunities on the speedways, but you also have to be really aggressive.”   After several races with the new, longer restart zone, how have restarts changed?   “We saw it cause some issues at Fontana, but in Vegas and Phoenix everything was just fine. They tell us not to lay back on restarts all the time, and a lot of guys get away with still doing that. As long as we can all stay closed up, it’s not going to be a problem. It gives the leader an advantage, which is what it should be.”

Aric Almirola is 30/1 to win 2023 AmBetter Health 400

 

ARIC ALMIROLA  Atlanta Race Advance  No. 10 Smithfield Ford Mustang for Stewart-Haas Racing

Event Overview

● Event: Ambetter Health 400 (Round 5 of 36) ● Time/Date: 3 p.m. EDT on Sunday, March 19 ● Location: Atlanta Motor Speedway ● Layout: 1.54-mile Oval ● Laps/Miles: 260 laps/400 miles ● Stage Lengths: Stages 1: 60 laps / Stage 2: 100 laps / Final Stage: 100 laps ● TV/Radio: FOX / PRN / SiriusXM NASCAR Radio

Notes of Interest

●  Before last year’s racing took place, the 1.5-mile oval at Atlanta Motor Speedway was repaved and reconfigured. The banking in the corners was increased from 24 to 28 degrees, and the track width was reconfigured to vary from 55 to 40 feet. Racing on the intermediate oval now is more akin to that on the big tracks at Daytona (Fla.) International Speedway and its sister track Talladega (Ala.) Superspeedway. Almirola finished 22nd after leading six laps at Atlanta on March 20, 2022, and returned July 10 to post an eighth-place finish.   ●  Overcoming adversity is a staple of Almirola’s career. While the start to the 2023 season has not been what the No. 10 Smithfield Ford team is capable of due largely to bad luck and mechanical issues, Almirola has always seemed to find his way back on top. In 2021, The No. 10 team was in the same points position through four races as this year, but Almirola still made the playoffs for his fourth consecutive year at Stewart-Haas Racing. He strives in the underdog position.    ●  Almirola has a solid record at superspeedways with two wins, six top-fives, 12 top-10s and 84 laps led. In June 2020, he scored his eighth-consecutive top-10 at Talladega to tie the track record for most consecutive top-10s – a mark first set by Hall of Famer Dale Earnhardt Jr., from April 2001 to October 2004.   ●  Last weekend at Phoenix, Almirola raced his way from 31st to 16th before his right-front wheel broke under green-flag conditions, causing the No. 10 driver to make contact with the wall and putting him five laps down.   ●  Almirola had a strong start in the first two outings of the season by winning his heat race and starting on the pole during the non-points Busch Light Clash at the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. Then, in the points-paying season opener at Daytona, the 38-year-old veteran won his Duel qualifying race and led 16 laps Daytona 500 – the most laps he’s led at Daytona in 23 starts.    ●  Driver Points: Almirola arrives at Atlanta 26th in the driver standings with 56 points.    ●  Almirola’s career: In 428 career NASCAR Cup Series starts, Almirola has three wins, 28 top-five finishes, 91 top-10s, three poles, and has led 990 laps.   ●  Fans will see the iconic white, black, and gold Smithfield Foods scheme adorn Almirola’s Ford Mustang this weekend. Smithfield has been a sponsor of Almirola’s for the entirety of his fulltime NASCAR Cup Series career – making it one of the longest-lasting partnerships in NASCAR. Smithfield is an American food company with agricultural roots and a global reach. Its 63,000 team members are dedicated to producing “Good food. Responsibly.®” Smithfield is one of the world’s leading vertically integrated protein companies. The company has pioneered sustainability standards for more than two decades, including its industry-leading commitments to become carbon negative in U.S. company-owned operations and reduce GHG emissions 30 percent across its entire U.S. value chain by 2030. Smithfield believes in the power of protein to end food insecurity and has donated hundreds of millions of food servings to local communities.   ●  Beyond the 10 YouTube Series: In 2023, Almirola is continuing to share his life beyond the No. 10 Ford with season five of his award-winning YouTube series. Fans and media can subscribe on YouTube to see Almirola’s personality on and off the track. Episodes have already featured life as a dad, a husband and an athlete, and the show gives fans a unique perspective on what goes on in the life of a professional NASCAR driver. Fans can also follow Almirola’s social media channels: @Aric_Almirola on Twitter and Instagram, and @AricAlmirola on Facebook.

Aric Almirola, Driver of the No. 10 Smithfield Ford Mustang for Stewart-Haas Racing:

Despite winning your Duel qualifying race at Daytona, the No. 10 team has had a difficult start to the season. How is your mindset moving forward?   “We have had some of the worst luck to start a season, but we have found speed. The West Coast swing was not for us this year. We had good speed at Fontana before we were collected in a wreck with nowhere to go. Vegas was a top-15 run, and last weekend at Phoenix was by far the fastest car we have had this year. We passed a lot of cars at Phoenix and we easily had a top-six car. If we didn’t have that issue with the wheel, we would have been a contender in the top-five there at the end. I know it. I know this 10 team can find winning speed. Things just have not gone our way, but it’s a long season. I’m ready to hit reset and forget about the start we’ve had. You can’t dwell on it because it’s in the past. We’re going to have really good days and there are always bad days, so we’re going to aim to capitalize on those good days. In 2021, we had an even worse start to the season and we went out and made the playoffs. Last year, we had the most consecutive top-10s in the series to start the season, but we didn’t make the playoffs. You just have to take it one race at a time. One weekend can get you back on track and I hope it starts in Atlanta.”   What are your expectations for the No. 10 Smithfield team at Atlanta this weekend?   “We led some laps in our first start at the new configuration and had a really fast car. We had another fast car in July, too, so I like our chances at Atlanta if we can stay out of trouble and run a clean race. Ideally, we can get up front and have a really good points day to get ourselves out of this hole. Atlanta is a place we can do that, so we’re hoping to bounce back this weekend.”   Is Atlanta just as much of a wild-card race as Daytona and Talladega, now?   “I would say so. It definitely races like a superspeedway, more than I thought it would. It’s definitely a wild-card race. You have guys up front that aren’t normally up front, but you still have to have a fast car and good handling to have a shot at it.”