For a full write-up on Richmond, check out my Top-20 finish prediction on Sportsline.com.
Here’s what I’m thinking for Sunday’s Toyota Owners 400 with odds courtesy of Caesars sportsbooks:
1 #11 Denny Hamlin (8/1) - How can you not have some action on Hamlin this week? He grew up around the track his entire life living in nearby Chesterfield, VA, and has dominated the track with four wins, 17 top-fives, and 2,135 laps led. He also has three Xfinity wins. He won this race last season using a late pit strategy after leading only five laps. But the key for me is that he’s still with Joe Gibbs Racing and the issues they had turning the Toyota last season appear to be a thing of the past with Tyler Reddick showing the Toyota issues are all fixed. This track just suits him in every way.
2 #20 Christopher Bell (8/1) - In five Cup starts at Richmond he’s averaged a sixth-place finish which is the best among all active drivers. The three-quarter-mile flat layout has been one of his favorite tracks in the series and he made it clear when he won three of four at Richmond in the Xfinity Series in 2018-19.
3 #5 Kyle Larson (6/1) - His lone Cup win at Richmond came in 2017 when he led 53 laps. He was fifth in this race last season. He's been on the pole two of the last three Richmond races. This is a good track for him to run well at but he’s been disaster prone with just two top-10s this season in six races.
4 #4 Kevin Harvick (6/1) - He’s one of the best to ever do it at Richmond and this is his final season. He won at Richmond the last time he raced there last fall when his car got faster with each pit stop. He led 55 laps that day. In all, he has four Richmond wins, 17 top-fives, 29 top10s, and 1,235 laps led over 43 starts.
5 #24 William Byron (11/2) - His two best Richmond runs have come in this spring race the last two seasons with a seventh in 2021 and a third last season when he led 122 laps. The reason you might bet him this week is that he won at Phoenix three weeks ago.
6 #1 Ross Chastain (17/1) - He was 18th and 19th last season at Richmond after getting a career-best seventh in 2021, but the reason I like him this week is because of finishing runner-up at Phoenix in the spring last season and finishing third in the fall.
7 #45 Tyler Reddick (17/1) - His best finish was 11th during his first Cup race at Richmond in 2020. His success at Phoenix last season didn't coincide with doing well at Richmond. But he’s with an entirely new team with 23X11 Racing and he comes off a win last week at COTA.
8 #12 Ryan Blaney (15/1) - He has no top-fives in 13 Cup starts at Richmond, but it appears he’s warming up to the track in his last four starts finishing 11th or better in each. In this race last season he led the most laps (128) finishing seventh after starting from the pole.
9 #48 Alex Bowman (20/1) - He’s got the equipment with Hendrick and he’s had his two best finishes in this spring race the last two years.
10 #8 Kyle Busch (10/1) - He leads all active drivers with six Cup wins at Richmond to go along with 18 top-fives and 27 top-10s between 34 starts.
Here’s what I’m thinking for Sunday’s Toyota Owners 400 with odds courtesy of Caesars sportsbooks:
1 #11 Denny Hamlin (8/1) - How can you not have some action on Hamlin this week? He grew up around the track his entire life living in nearby Chesterfield, VA, and has dominated the track with four wins, 17 top-fives, and 2,135 laps led. He also has three Xfinity wins. He won this race last season using a late pit strategy after leading only five laps. But the key for me is that he’s still with Joe Gibbs Racing and the issues they had turning the Toyota last season appear to be a thing of the past with Tyler Reddick showing the Toyota issues are all fixed. This track just suits him in every way.
2 #20 Christopher Bell (8/1) - In five Cup starts at Richmond he’s averaged a sixth-place finish which is the best among all active drivers. The three-quarter-mile flat layout has been one of his favorite tracks in the series and he made it clear when he won three of four at Richmond in the Xfinity Series in 2018-19.
3 #5 Kyle Larson (6/1) - His lone Cup win at Richmond came in 2017 when he led 53 laps. He was fifth in this race last season. He's been on the pole two of the last three Richmond races. This is a good track for him to run well at but he’s been disaster prone with just two top-10s this season in six races.
4 #4 Kevin Harvick (6/1) - He’s one of the best to ever do it at Richmond and this is his final season. He won at Richmond the last time he raced there last fall when his car got faster with each pit stop. He led 55 laps that day. In all, he has four Richmond wins, 17 top-fives, 29 top10s, and 1,235 laps led over 43 starts.
5 #24 William Byron (11/2) - His two best Richmond runs have come in this spring race the last two seasons with a seventh in 2021 and a third last season when he led 122 laps. The reason you might bet him this week is that he won at Phoenix three weeks ago.
6 #1 Ross Chastain (17/1) - He was 18th and 19th last season at Richmond after getting a career-best seventh in 2021, but the reason I like him this week is because of finishing runner-up at Phoenix in the spring last season and finishing third in the fall.
7 #45 Tyler Reddick (17/1) - His best finish was 11th during his first Cup race at Richmond in 2020. His success at Phoenix last season didn't coincide with doing well at Richmond. But he’s with an entirely new team with 23X11 Racing and he comes off a win last week at COTA.
8 #12 Ryan Blaney (15/1) - He has no top-fives in 13 Cup starts at Richmond, but it appears he’s warming up to the track in his last four starts finishing 11th or better in each. In this race last season he led the most laps (128) finishing seventh after starting from the pole.
9 #48 Alex Bowman (20/1) - He’s got the equipment with Hendrick and he’s had his two best finishes in this spring race the last two years.
10 #8 Kyle Busch (10/1) - He leads all active drivers with six Cup wins at Richmond to go along with 18 top-fives and 27 top-10s between 34 starts.
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