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| Kyle Busch won last week at Pocono as the 3/1 favorite. |
Last week he was 3/1 at a place he's recently dominated at, but now he's lower than 3/1 at his third worst statistical track (18th-place average) behind Talladega and Daytona.
“I’m not entirely sure," Busch said regarding what to expect at Michigan. "We’ll just go into the weekend like we always do – keep working on our car to be the best it can be in practice on Friday and hope we have a shot to get back to victory lane there. We had a lot of struggles on the repave but turned that around a bit last year. Our whole team has shown how well we’ve worked together and Adam (Stevens, crew chief) has been able to make the right calls, so I’m looking forward to seeing what he has in store for me at Michigan this weekend. I’m hoping Michigan will be at least a little bit more worn in than when we were there last August."
Michigan's wide 2-mile D-shaped oval was repaved before the 2012 season and Busch had only one top-five in his next 12 starts there. But then things got better last season with fourth place in this race and third in the August race.
So the question we have to ask ourselves this week is whether Busch driving this new race package coupled with breaking the funk on the new surface last year outweighs his overall poor performances since last winning there. Also, it's important to note that Busch won at Michigan's sister-track at Fontana in March that was using the same package they'll run this week. It's the same package he won with at Pocono last week.
With all the data we have on Busch, I just can't bet him this week. He'll probably finish top-five again like he's done eight times already in 2019, but I had to throw him out of my wagering portfolio for the week. It's not like he's Jeff Gordon at 5/2 odds in the late 90s to win on a road course. This is Kyle's worst track that's not at a traditional restrictor-plate track. No way I can take less than 5/1 on him here, but I can tell you he worries me and I definitely won't be taking big prices in match-ups betting against him. I'm going to pretend he's not even racing and leave him out of everything.
The good thing about the SuperBook's odds with a desired 26 percent theoretic hold percentage is that when they post an option at such low odds like Busch, all the other options are bumped up in price to keep it balanced at 26 percent. Believe it or not, not all Nevada books follow this practice and most offer a theo hold at 40 to 50 percent. But with the SuperBook, they give you something back with other drivers almost like a dare so I'm centering my attention on Chase Elliott at 10/1 odds.
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