News and notes from each week of NASCAR racing using a Las Vegas oddsmaking perspective
Thursday, August 3, 2023
Race To The Playoffs: Four races to go, four open postseason spots
Just four races remain in the NASCAR Cup Series regular season and tensions are running high in the garage for the competitors that haven’t secured their spot in the postseason. Currently, the final four remaining transfer Playoff spots on points are occupied by Stewart-Haas Racing’s Kevin Harvick (13th, +182 points above the cutline), RFK Racing’s Brad Keselowski (14th, +151 points above the cutline), 23XI Racing’s Bubba Wallace (15th, +54 points above the cutline), and Front Row Motorsports’ Michael McDowell (16th, +18 points above cutline).
Heading into Sunday at Michigan International Speedway, several former winners at the track will be looking to return to Victory Lane this weekend, especially those that are winless this season. Of that group, Stewart-Haas Racing’s Kevin Harvick bolsters the most success at the two-mile track with wins in all three of NASCAR’s national series; including the series-most among active drivers (six) in the NASCAR Cup Series. He also has a victory in the NASCAR Xfinity Series (2003) and the NASCAR CRAFTSMAN Truck Series (2011). Harvick and Kyle Busch are the only two active drivers with wins in all three NASCAR national series at Michigan.
RFK Racing’s Brad Keselowski (two wins), Richard Childress Racing’s Austin Dillon (one win), Kaulig Racing’s AJ Allmendinger (one win) and Joe Gibbs Racing’s Ty Gibbs (one win) each have NASCAR Xfinity Series victories at Michigan International Speedway, and all four need a win this season to get into the NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs. In last season’s Cup race, Keselowski finished 15th, Dillon finished 13th, Ty Gibbs finished 10th and Allmendinger did not compete in the event.
23XI Racing’s Bubba Wallace and Stewart-Haas Racing’s Aric Almirola each have NASCAR CRAFTSMAN Truck Series wins at Michigan and are looking for their first wins of the 2023 NASCAR Cup Series season. In last year’s Cup race, Almirola finished 34th due to an incident and Wallace finished runner-up to Kevin Harvick.
Stewart-Haas Racing’s Kevin Harvick has one last shot at going back-to-back at Michigan
Drivers with consecutive wins at Michigan:
- Bobby Allison (1971 sweep),
- David Pearson (1972 sweep – 1973), (1974-1975),
- Cale Yarborough (1983 sweep),
- Bill Elliott (1985 sweep – 1986 sweep),
- Bobby Labonte (1995 sweep),
- Mark Martin (1997-1998),
- Ryan Newman (2003-2004),
- Greg Biffle (2004-2005), (2012-2013)
- Kyle Larson won three-straight at Michigan (2016-2017).
- Kevin Harvick (2019, 2020-1, 2020-2) – only driver to win in consecutive days at a single track.
The 47-year-old from Bakersfield, California, Harvick, is currently ranked 13th in the NASCAR Cup Series Playoff outlook, 182 points ahead of Joe Gibbs Racing’s Ty Gibbs in 17th – the first spot outside the postseason cutoff. In 22 starts this season, Harvick has put up one stage win, six top-five and 10 top-10 finishes.
Last season, Harvick only led the final 38 laps of the race after taking the lead coming off pit road during the final caution’s pitstops. He would hold on to win his sixth race at the track – most among active drivers. In total, Harvick has made 42 starts at the two-mile track, posting six wins (2010, 2018, 2019, 2020-1, 2020-2, 2022), including four of the last five races, 16 top fives and 22 top 10s. His average finish at Michigan is 10.952 – second best among active drivers.
Chase Elliott is 15/1 to win at Michigan, desperate and yes, 15/1
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Michigan’s Irish Hills welcomes the NASCAR Cup Series
Challenging the competitors this week will be the massive Michigan International Speedway, which sits on more than 1,400 acres in the “Irish Hills” of southeastern Michigan. Ground-breaking for the facility took place on September 28, 1967 and the two-mile asphalt paved track with 18 degrees of banking in the turns was created – the only track with those dimensions on the schedule.
The first NASCAR Cup Series race at Michigan International Speedway was held on June 15, 1969, and the event was won by NASCAR Hall of Famer Cale Yarborough in the Wood Brothers’ No. 21 Mercury at an average speed of 139.254 mph.
The NASCAR Cup Series events at Michigan International Speedway have been run at multiple different lengths. The first NASCAR Cup Series race at Michigan was 500 miles in length; the second was scheduled for 600 – but was shortened due to weather and only ran 330 miles. Michigan was re-measured to 2.04 miles for the last race in 1970 and both races in 1971 – with the race distance being 402 miles. All other races have been scheduled for 400 miles, except for the two 2020 races during the pandemic that were 312 miles each and run on consecutive days.
Michigan International Speedway has hosted a total of 105 NASCAR Cup Series races producing 51 different pole winners and 39 different race winners. NASCAR Hall of Famer David Pearson leads the series in wins at Michigan with nine victories (1969, 1972 sweep, 1973, 1974, 1975, 1976 sweep, 1978). Kevin Harvick (2010, 2018, 2019, 2020-1, 2020-2, 2022) leads all active series drivers in wins at Michigan with six victories. Six of the 39 NASCAR Cup Series race winners at Michigan are active this weekend.
Active Michigan Race Winners | Wins | Seasons |
Kevin Harvick | 6 | 2022, 2020 sweep, 2019, 2018, 2010 |
Joey Logano | 3 | 2019, 2016, 2013 |
Kyle Larson | 3 | 2017 sweep, 2016 |
Denny Hamlin | 2 | 2011, 2010 |
Ryan Blaney | 1 | 2021 |
Kyle Busch | 1 | 2011 |
A total of 51 different drivers have qualified on the pole at Michigan International Speedway in the NASCAR Cup Series, led by NASCAR Hall of Famer David Pearson with 10 poles (1969, 1974 sweep, 1975, 1976, 1977 sweep, 1978 sweep and 1979). Joey Logano leads all active NASCAR Cup Series drivers in poles at Michigan with four (2013, 2016 sweep, 2019). And seven of the 51 NASCAR Cup Series Michigan pole winners are active this weekend.
Active Michigan Pole Winners | Poles | Seasons |
Joey Logano | 4 | 2019, 2016 sweep, 2013 |
Brad Keselowski | 2 | 2019, 2017 |
Bubba Wallace | 1 | 2022 |
Denny Hamlin | 1 | 2018 |
Kyle Larson | 1 | 2017 |
Kevin Harvick | 1 | 2014 |
JJ Yeley | 1 | 2007 |
The first starting position is the most proficient starting position in the field, producing more NASCAR Cup Series winners (22) than any other starting position at Michigan International Speedway: 21 winners from the pole and one from the first starting position due to qualifying being cancelled – 1985 (Bill Elliott). The most recent driver to win from the pole at Michigan was Joey Logano in 2019. The deepest in the field that a race winner has started at Michigan is 32nd, by NASCAR Hall of Famer Mark Martin in the spring of 2009.
Kyle Larson is last Chevy to win at Michigan, 7/1 to win this week
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