1 #19 Martin Truex Jr. (7/1) - He just won at Sonoma leading a race-high 51 laps. His car dominated the end of the race. It was the best set-up he had with a JGR Toyota in the last 10 road races. It was his first top-five in his last 10 road races and also the first time he’s led a lap in his last 10 road races. The roads become more important in today’s NASCAR that Toyota has made huge grounds in setting up a quality ride. They had the best two cars at Sonoma, not by accident, but by making huge grounds in their road racing program. Truex has five road course wins now and might have six by the end of Saturday. He should be the favorite to win this race.
2 #45 Tyler Reddick (13/2) - He’s won three of the last six races on road courses and has led laps in five of his last six. The Toyota brand was on point for his car at COTA but finished 33rd at Sonoma after a decent start. But he never really contended at Sonoma after finishing sixth in the first stage. So the question is will he be set up better than everyone like he was at COTA or do we get the Sonoma set up? He’s batting .500 in his last six road races, so the price is somewhat attractive.
3 #17 Chris Buescher (20/1) - The new car has been his biggest edge on the road courses. He knows what he needs to run well, explains it to his team, and they give him what he needs to compete for a win. His last seven road starts with the new car have seen him finish in the top-10. His consistency in performance and car set-up has been amazing. He was runner-up at Sonoma last season and was fourth this season. He also was eighth at COTA in March. All top-10s, in seven straight of anything, is pretty good, but seven road courses are something that deserves some betting attention.
4 #16 A.J. Allmendinger (10/1) - His two wins in the NASCAR Cup Series have come on road courses, the last coming at the Indy course in 2021. His last six road starts have been amazing with a ninth or better in five of his last six. He was sixth at Sonoma three weeks ago. A new course, he’ll have an edge with attitude, arrogance, and skill.
5 #8 Kyle Busch (12/1) - He might offer the best value with his price-to-performance road racing ratio this week. Can he win? Sure why not, he has three wins already this season. But how about road courses? He has four wins and 18 top-fives over his 49 road starts. How about this season? He has a runner-up each at COTA and Sonoma, two-for-two in second place. It’s obvious the edge on roads that Tyler Reddick had last season in the first year of the NextGen car is still an edge with Busch driving it.
6 #9 Chase Elliott (5/1) - He has the most glorious road racing resume in NASCAR with an eighth-place average finish, seven wins in 26 starts with 15 top-fives, and 470 laps led. But he hasn’t won in his last 10 road races. He hasn’t won the last seven races on road courses using the NextGen car and while it might make sense that NASCAR’s main character wins on a new street circuit I just haven’t seen it yet with the new car. So how can I bet him now as the 5-to-1 favorite to do something he hasn’t done yet? His time is ticking as the countdown to the playoffs behind and he needs a win to make it.
7 #5 Kyle Larson (7/1) - He’s won four of the last 13 road course events but most of that damage was done in 2021 with the old car. He’s only won one road race in his last eight starts, including two very mediocre performances this season. He didn’t lead a lap in his last three and five of his last six road events. His recent history suggests his true price is 18-to-1 so why would I take 7-to-1?
8 #99 Daniel Suarez (25/1) - Seeing his teammate win last week raised the bar for Trackhouse Racing. Now it’s Suarez’s turn and after winning at Sonoma last season he finished fifth at Road America and Watkins Glen. But he finished 27th at COTA and 22nd at Sonoma this season. I would need 35/1 odds to bet him to win.
9 #11 Denny Hamlin (30/1) - The reason you might bet him this week besides the attractive price is because his car was bad-fast at Sonoma when he won the pole and led the first 32 laps, won the first stage, and then got an accident to finish poorly. The top two cars there were JGR Toyotas. They’ve found something in the NextGen car to help them get a better balance in their road setups. Overall, he has one road win and 13 top-fives in 47 road starts.
10 #34 Michael McDowell (25/1) - He was discovered by NASCAR driving on road courses and he’s showing off his skills during his last seven road course races beginning with a third last season at Sonoma and a seventh this season at Sonoma. He’s been 12th or better in six of his last seven road course starts. He’s a player this week as his low odds indicate.
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