1 #1 Ross Chastain (10/1) - He has slowed his roll a bit after a few altercations and perhaps he hasn’t been as aggressive because of the chitter-chatter in the garages regarding him, but this is one I think he goes all out for the win. In 2021, he drove the No. 42 to a runner-up at Nashville and in 2022 with the NextGen car he was fifth. Only two drivers have top-fives in the first two Nashville Cup races and he’s one of them. No wins yet, paying his due respect to his competitors, slowing down to stay out of trouble, that’s all out the window Sunday night. He lets loose and goes for the win hard.
2 #19 Martin Truex Jr. (7/1) - He’s got two wins since May began and he’s finding his way to the front in five of his last seven races. He probably should have won at Darlington where he led 145 laps from the pole until crashing late. That is my first angle. The second angle is that Nashville saw the Toyotas dialed in last season, the first with the NextGen car, with Truex leading 82 laps and winning the first two stages. He’s going to be tough to beat.
“Nashville is really interesting,” Truex said. “We had a really strong car last year. Led a bunch and won both Stage 1 and Stage 2 and was in really good shape. The rain delay came, the track cooled off and changed a lot and we went from us and the 11 (Denny Hamlin) as the two cars to beat to all of a sudden five or more guys right there with us. I don’t remember exactly how we got shuffled out of the lead but I know it had something to do with the pit cycle and pit stops. Once you lose the lead, you lose the advantage, and some other guys got faster as it cooled off when it was so much later at night and we just couldn’t get back to the front. I feel like we’ve been bringing some really good cars to the track and would expect us to be strong at Nashville this weekend. Looking forward to getting back there with our Bass Pro Shops Toyota Camry TRD and hope to be able to have a stronger end to the race than we did last year.”
3 #24 William Byron (8/1) - He’s tied for the Cup lead with three wins and leads everyone with seven top-fives. The first two Nashville Cup wins were won by different Hendrick drivers. Maybe Byron is next up? He was third in his 2021 debut on the concrete track and ran into trouble last season finishing 35th, but I believe he’ll have one of the best cars on race day.
4 #11 Denny Hamlin (8/1) - You can see he’s charging hard just by looking at him leading seven of the last eight races and all kinds of different tracks. Like Truex, JGR Toyotas have things figured out for the stretch run before the playoffs begin. Last season, Hamlin finished sixth after leading a race high 114 laps.
“Nashville is a fun racetrack and a great market for us to go to,” Hamlins said. “The track is a lot different than anywhere else we race at being that size and a concrete surface. I felt like the Next Gen car raced really well there last year. We were able to have a long back-and-forth battle for the lead, and it seemed like there were multiple grooves, so I feel like this week should be no different. I’m looking forward to going there and hopefully, we can put ourselves in contention at the end of the race.”
5 #12 Ryan Blaney (10/1) - He’s notched his first win in three seasons so he’s got that monkey off his back. He’s in the playoffs, now it’s time for gravy. Now it’s time to stand strong and be the aggressor. He was third last season at Nashville.
6 #9 Chase Elliott (8/1) - He sits 27th in points due to missing six early season races and the only way he makes the playoffs is with a win and he won this race last season after leading 42 laps. A Hendrick Chevy has won both Nashville races. He was 11th at the 1-mile high-banked Dover layout on concrete in early May. He’s going to win soon, somewhere, but the question is where.
7 #5 Kyle Larson (5/1) - He has two wins this season coming at Richmond and Martinsville and probably should have two more. He is one of two drivers with two top-fives at Nasgville, winning in 2021 and finishing fourth in the NextGen car last season. This is the perfect spot for him to win because of having lots of grooves and lots of room to maneuver but I can’t bet his inflated odds when he’s had issues that forced him to finish 29th or worse in six races this season.
8 #20 Christopher Bell (10/1) - He started out with five top-fives in his first eight races this season culminating with a Bristol Dirt race win, but no top-fives since then. This should be a good track for and JGR.
“Nashville has one of the most unique surfaces on the circuit and is a big race for the DEWALT team,” Bell said. “It’s important to get momentum headed into the second half of the season.”
9 #45 Tyler Reddick (15/1) - He was 18th in both Nashville races the last two seasons, but that was with RCR. Now he’s basically a subsidiary of JGR while racing for 23x11 Racing which Kurt Busch drove last season to a runner-up finish. I expect Reddick to have his best career finish at Nashville Sunday night.
10 #22 Joey Logano (15/1) - He’s had two top-10 finishes in the two Nashville Cup races but was never a contender to win. It’s been a weird 2023 for him with one Atlanta win and only two top-fives. But why I like him to compete well this week is that he’s always run well on concrete and also won the 2009 Xfinity Series race at Nashville.
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