1 #5 Kyle Larson (13/2) - The best way to approach handicapping this race since we haven’t seen it since 1996 is to look at what happened at similar tracks with the best being the half-miler in Martinsville and the ¾-miler at Richmond and Larson won on both of those layouts this season. Those are his only two wins of the season and while I don’t like betting the favorite in this race, I cannot deny that they’ve had the best set-up in the two best comparisons for Sunday night. Larson is a two-time All-Star Race winner.
2 #24 William Byron (8/1) - He’s with Hendrick Motorsports and leads all drivers with three wins in 13 races this season. He’s won on all types and won at Martinsville last season after leading 212 laps. That race last season is relevant because the NextGen car hasn’t been changed much.
3 #9 Chase Elliott (11/1) - In 42 Cup starts between Martinsville, Richmond, and Bristol, he’s had 14 top-fives, a win, and a 12.2 average finish. He’s led 1,491 laps on them. His win came at Martinsville in the 2020 COVID season. He has top-10s in his last five starts on the three short tracks. This feels like an event that the winless Elliott could break through. He won the big check in the 2020 season at Bristol.
4 #11 Denny Hamlin (11/1) - The 2015 All-Star Race winner has fast cars now and finished fourth at Martinsville after leading 36 laps last month. He won at Kansas for his first victory of the season, but I like him here more because I think of Richmond the most as a comparison and Richmond is his home track where he has four wins. Altogether between Bristol, Martinsville, and Richmond, he has 100 starts, 11 wins, 44 top-fives, and 5,326 laps led.
5 #19 Martin Truex Jr. (10/1) - Just as Hamlin has found new speed of late, Truex has as well. He’s become a short-track specialist in the last five years as well getting six wins on them. He’s got his win at Dover three weeks ago and he’s been competing up front for win the last two months. This will be a great track for him.
6 #29 Kevin Harvick (9/1) - For an exhibition race with no points awarded, he’ll be racing his former number when he drove for Richard Childress beginning in 2001. The two-time All-Star Race winner will be starting his last All-Star Race and it would be a fantastic story if he won it. And he can win. Stewart-Haas Racing has improved its performance on short tracks this season and Harvick won at Richmond last fall.
7 #8 Kyle Busch (10/1) - The 2017 All-Star Race winner has the best overall (active) record on short tracks with 16 wins, 49 top-fives, and 5,551 laps led over 104 starts between the three short tracks. Richmond is one of his best with six wins and it is the best comparison to North Wilkesboro. The only downside to Busch is that his short track set-up didn’t fare well at Richmond or Martinsville this season with RCR.
8 #14 Chase Briscoe (25/1) - This is one reach, my one piece of fool’s gold I have this week, but I have someone to make the most of my plays this week. Shop around for better odds than Caesars is offering. He’s got that good SHR set-up for short tracks going. His last short track race saw him lead 109 laps at Martinville and finish fifth. His teammate Ryan Preece led a race-high 135 laps in that race as well. Fingers crossed.
9 #20 Christopher Bell (9/1) - He’s got that Joe Gibbs Racing set-up going like Hamlin and Truex and he’ll contend for the win. He was fourth at Richmond in April and he won his first short-track race at Martinsville last fall. As much as I like him, his odds scared me off him as one of eight drivers posted at 10-to-1 or less. Give me 15-to-1 and I’m a buyer in Bell.
10 #1 Ross Chastain (10/1) - Thank you Mr. Chastain for adding some spice to a NASCAR Cup Series that has become a bit bland. Everyone likes each other. The drivers are all buddies and gentlemen on the track. Except for Chastain. He doesn’t follow the unwritten rules, he goes by his own creed and that creed is to race as hard as he can to get ahead of the driver in front of him no matter who it is. All the drivers want to blame him for something, all the drivers dislike him. But I don’t care, I like him and what he’s doing, and I might even get a Chastain t-shirt. For comparison, Chastain led 16 laps at Richmond in April and finished third, and was 13th at Martinsville after leading 31 laps. Captain Chaos is the best intangible added to NASCAR lately, other than racing again at North Wilkesboro.
Read my entire story on the All-Star Race on Sportsline.com
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