Micah Roberts' Top-10 Finish Prediction: AdventHealth 400 at Kansas

1 #5 Kyle Larson (9/2) - In 16 Cup starts at Kansas he has a 2021 win and five top-fives with 455 laps led. But at the moment he’s been crashing cars more than winning. He’s been 29th or better in five of his 11 starts this season. Lots of bad luck and sometimes good luck is far and away. He’s been 32nd or worse in three of his last four starts but he has a win in two of his last five starts. Sometimes I feel Kansas was made specifically to the 11-year veteran. It’s got his key boxes checked. For the misery comes the reward here for Larson, I think anyway.

2 #4 Kevin Harvick (22/1) - The applicable tracks that appy to Kansas this week is Fontana’s 2-mile layout where he finished fifth and the 1.5-mile at Las Vegas where he finished ninth. He last won at Kansas in 2018 and has three wins overall. It’s always been a good track for him as he leads all drivers with 12 Top-fives and 949 laps led. He’s retiring at the end of the season and this is a track I’ve identified as a possible win for him.

3 #24 William Byron (11/2) - Only a 15th-place average finish in his 10 Cup starts at Kansas, but he’s been ninth or better in six of his last seven starts there. He’ll be racing for the lead late in the race and that’s all you can ask for when betting NASCAR.

4 #9 Chase Elliott (12/1) - He has an 11th-place average finish in 14 Cup starts at Kansas with a 2018 win and six top-fives. This is a good track for him.

5 #1 Ross Chastain (12/1) - He won a 2019 Truck race at Kansas and was seventh in both races last season. He doesn’t have any wins this season after scoring his first two Cup wins last season, but the guy is in every race going for the win. Sure he spins a few of his colleagues on one of his daring moves to make a pass, but to me, that’s NASCAR. You race to win and this guy is trying his hardest to win without fear of repercussions. Chastain is box office TV when everyone else is AM radio afraid to ruffle feathers due to NASCAR’s inconsistent rulings over the last two decades.

6 #11 Denny Hamlin (7/1) - He notched his first top-five of the season last week at Dover, the 11th race of the season so far. He’s a three-time winner at Kansas with a 13th-place average finish, which includes 11 top-fives and 349 laps led in 29 starts. He’s gone 34 races since last winning a race and didn’t win at Kansas in the NextGen car, but sure, 7/1 sounds about right for a driver with one top-five this season.

7 #12 Ryan Blaney (18/1) - He had to cringe watching Truex win last week because he too hasn’t won in the NextGen car either. He’s averaged a 16th-place finish in 16 starts at Kansas with three top-fives. It’s a track that should be perfectly suited for him but it hasn’t happened yet.

8 #19 Martin Truex Jr (8/1) - He finally notched his first win in two seasons of using the NextGen car and he looked as comfortable as ever at Dover winning for the fourth time. He’s a two-time winner at Kansas with 10 top-fives and 827 laps led. He’s a player this week.

9 #23 Bubba Wallace (15/1) - He won the fall race at Kansas last season, leading 58 laps, in the No. 45 Toyota to boost his overall average finish to 21st-place in 10 Cup starts. He was also 10th last season driving the No. 23 car. Because the NextGen cars are basically the same as last season its easy to deduce that Wallace will be a player again this week.

10 #45 Tyler Reddick (15/2) - In seven Cup starts at Kansas he has a 20th-place average finish with two top-10s in seven starts. Last season in the No. 8 RCR car he started on the front brown in both races, led 62 laps between them, and finished 30th or worst. The reason you bet him this week is that the No. 45 Toyota won both races at Kansas last season. But 15/2 odds don’t sound fair. I could bite on him at 15/1.