Micah Roberts' Top-10 Finish Prediction: 2023 Goodyear 400 at Darlington

1 #19 Martin Truex Jr (7/1) - Last season he caught the wrath of the Lady in Black in both races when it appeared he had a winning car. It was his first two attempts using the NextGen car but after leading 28 laps and finishing second in the second stage he got caught up in an accident and finish 24th. In the fall event, he was second in the second stage and led 48 laps before a water pump messed his day up and he finished 31st. But he’s really good at this track. He’s won two times, the last in 2021 when he won the first two stages and led a race-high 247 laps. Toyota has come to the rescue with the NextGen car 2.0 and now they’ve won the last two races after both he and Hamlin has been in long winless droughts.

2 #11 Denny Hamlin (6/1) - I don’t know what it is, but Denny’s got some dirty laundry over the Lady in Black. Plus, she has a crush on him. He’s learned to sweet talk her in a way that apparently no other driver knows how to do. He’s had an answer for every obstacle she’s laid before him. In 21 Cup starts there, he leads all active drivers with a 7.5 average finish. He also leads with four active wins. In addition, he also has 12 top-fives and 16 top-10s. He’s led laps in his last six there and 11 of his last 13 races there. And the best notation for this week is that he just won last week at Kansas last week. Toyota got their cars faster at just the right time.

3 #9 Chase Elliott (14/1) - He’s currently 29th in the NASCAR standings after missing six races due to breaking his leg, but he’s still higher than Austin Dillon if that tells you something. Elliott has a rocky relationship with the Lady in Black with three top-fives and six finishes of 19th or worse. But he did win a 2014 Xfinity Series race there. I like him to run well and go for the win because of needing a win to make the playoffs.

4 #24 William Byron (10/1) - He has two top-fives in nine Cup starts at Darlington and led 74 laps last season between the two races but finished 13 and eighth. He’s tied for the series lead with two wins and five top-fives. This should be a good track for him.

5 #5 Kyle Larson (5/1) - He’s second among active drivers with a 9.2 average finish in 10 Cup starts at Darlington. But he hasn’t won yet, but he has been runner-up three times and third twice. He’s led 686 laps. But his first run with the NextGen car last season had him finish 36th in May and 12th in September.

6 #45 Tyler Reddick (9/1) - He’s part of the upward movement with Toyota and he also has been sweet talking with the Lady. He was runner-up in this race last season and third in the fall while driving the No. 8 RCR Chevy. He’s challenged himself to learn the track well and it’s paid off. He is going to do some rim-riding.

7 #20 Christopher Bell (10/1) - In his first five starts at Darington, his best finish was 11th-place, but last season he brought it strong with a sixth-place in May and a fifth-place in September. A Toyota has won eight of the last 14 races at Darlington. His JGR Toyota has five top-fives, the most among Toyota drivers, and tied for the most in the series.

8 #1 Ross Chastain (10/1) - He’s led laps in his last four races at Darlington and had a career-best third-place in 2021, but between his light odds offered by Caesars and making enemies of almost everyone on the track, I think he’s got a better chance to be wrecked on a difficult track than he does to win. Last week at Kansas, rookie Noah Gragson had a beef with Chastain after the race. Gragson grabbed a handful of Chastain’s firesuit, Chastain said “don’t” twice, and then when Gragson didn’t stop, Chastain clocked Gragson with a straight right with authority to the jaw. I loved it, even though Gragson is from Las Vegas. Chastain is making NASCAR must-watch TV while all the other drivers don’t like him.

9 #23 Bubba Wallace (30/1) - He had his best finish at Darlington in the last race there on Labor Day weekend with ninth-place after leading four laps. The Lady finally gave him a pass after being 16th or worse in his first eight Cup starts there. He had accumulated enough Darlington Stripes to pass go or something. But this week, he’ll be fast. He’ll be part of that Toyota surge we’ve seen over the last month. He’ll be contending for most of the race.

10 #8 Kyle Busch (10/1) - He leads all active drivers with 899 laps led over his 22 Cup starts at Darlington, but only has one win there and that came in 2008. He has only six top-fives there. The Lady has put some trickery on him. Last fall he led 155 laps before an engine failed him. His last three starts there have been 30th or worse. The good news for him this week, besides his two wins already in 2023, is that the No. 8 RCR Chevy was runner-up at Darlington in this race last season and finished up third in the fall.

Read My full Top-20 Finish Prediction on Sportsline.com