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| Aric Almirola is 25/1 to win Sunday at Texas. |
Sunday’s O’Reilly Auto Parts 500 at Texas Motor Speedway will be the seventh race of the season on 1.5-mile tracks and the first six have been by six different drivers culminating with Stewart-Haas Racing driver Cole Custer’s win at Kentucky Speedway last week that paid out 300/1 odds at the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook.
NASCAR Cup Series
Handicapping Texas 500
Harvick vs. the Field
Last fall at Texas during the playoffs we saw the SHR drivers finished 1-2-3 showing they had a clear edge over the other teams on the high-banked layout and they’ll be using a race package this week that is almost the same as 2019.
Kevin Harvick won that race, his third in five races there, after not winning any in his first 29 starts. His last six starts all came on the resurfaced asphalt and it’s obvious that Harvick and crew chief Rodney Childers like their set-up for it very much.
Harvick and Childers have been together in the No. 4 SHR ride since 2014 and in the last 11 races there together they’ve had 11 straight top-10 finishes which include third or better in seven of those. Since switching from Chevrolet to Ford in 2017 he’s won his Texas races each of the three seasons.
He comes in as the best using this week’s race package that produces 550 horsepower which has netted him eight of his 10 series-leading top-fives in the 12 races it’s been used so far, which also includes all four of his wins which is tied with Denny Hamlin for the most in the series.
Between Harvick’s recent dominance at Texas and his incredible 2020, the SuperBook has posted him as a massive 3/1 betting favorite to win. What am I supposed to do with that? If you bet him to win again to make a profit you have to limit your drivers bet and increase the normal betting amount.
Come on, 3-to-1 to win a race against 39 other drivers when I’ve seen him times this season fall flat when he doesn’t have clean air upfront. That was the case on the last 1.5-mile track last week at Kentucky, but he still found his way to finish fourth with a chance of winning at the end. He was terrible and got better late. But in the second Charlotte race, he led 63 laps and dominated but got into dirty air late and finished 10th.
Hey look, I’m reaching and grasping for anything to talk me out of a bet on Harvick this week, and for some reason stats such as him only winning at Texas in the playoffs help justify betting against him.
But he has four wins in 12 races with this week’s race package which makes 3-to-1 sounds fair -- once every three races with it he wins. Then winning three of the last five there makes +150 seems fair.
Everybody but the No. 4
So what I’ve done is make cases for other drivers with a legitimate shot to win while making Harvick my insurance bet. Among all my staggered wagers, I’ll do the worst with Harvick and only recoup half my bankroll if he wins.
I don’t want to leave him out because of what he does every week, but I’ve got another SHR driver I like this week that I am bankrolling the most in my Week 18 portfolio that will go to my vacation fund whenever I feel comfortable from leaving my bunker and dealing with public air, and the public itself. And believe it or not, I’ve been quite comfortable bunkered up.
Custer won last week and he’s 100/1 this week even though he’s had top-fives, and a win, between his last two races using this week’s race package.
Clint Bowyer is 50/1 and has shown off having a fast car when getting out front, but I’m staking my week and future vacation on Aric Almirola who the SuperBook has offered at 25/1 odds.
I’ve talked myself into it and made all the cases for him winning despite never winning on this type of track. His only Cup wins have come on the Superspeedways of Daytona and Talladega.
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