Thursday, October 24, 2019

Martinsville Betting Preview: 2019 First Data 500

The Round of 8 begins Sunday at Martinsville.
Sunday’s First Data 500 at Martinsville Speedway’s flat half-mile paperclip kicks off the Round of 8 in NASCAR’s Playoffs, the first of three races in the round. The eight eligible drivers can get the automatic berth into the Championship 4 finale at Homestead-Miami Speedway on Nov. 17 by winning one of the next three races or scoring the most points. Do poorly at Martinsville to start the round and it’s likely that driver will be one of the four chopped following the Phoenix race in three weeks.

Let’s take a look at each of the candidate's chances at Martinsville and I’ve included the Westgate Las Vegas Superbook’s updated championship odds next to each driver’s name along with how many points they start the round with.

1. Kyle Busch 3/1 (4,046 points) - “I really look forward to this round,’’ Busch said. “I feel like it’s our best round. We run well at all three of those places and we’ve won a few at Texas, we won Martinsville twice and Phoenix has been getting better for us too, winning the last two races there. We just need to continue to execute and do a good job and make sure that we mind our Ps and Qs.’’

It would be the shock of the playoffs if Busch didn’t make the Championship 4 because he’s been so good on all three tracks. The 2015 Cup Champion comes into the Martinsville race with eight straight top-five finishes there, including both of his only Cup wins (2016, 2017). He’s led 1,424 laps between 28 starts which include 16 top-five finishes. This is why the Superbook has him posted as the heavy 5-to-2 favorite to win Sunday. Just for good measure, he’s also got two Truck Series wins at Martinsville, the last coming in April.

2. Martin Truex Jr. 7/2 (4,042) - The 2017 Cup Champion has never won at Martinsville, but he’s come really close in the last few years after struggling there for the first two-thirds of his career. He’s been eighth or better in his last four starts there and had a career-best runner-up during the playoffs during his championship run.

“We know what we need to do,’’ Truex said. “Now it’s just a matter of going out and doing it. I know (crew chief) Cole (Pearn) and the guys have a good plan every week, so I’m confident we can do that. We have been fast, ran up front and led laps at all of these tracks in this round. All eight (playoff) guys would love to go into Martinsville this week and win the race to move on. That’s our goal, but we also feel good about the other tracks too.’’

The thing that makes Truex attractive this week (6/1 odds to win) is how well he’s run with this week’s race package with engines producing 750 horsepower. He’s won four of the 12 races using it which includes winning on his first career short-track -- he swept the season at Richmond.

3. Denny Hamlin 4/1 (4,037) - The Virginian has the best Martinsville resume among all playoff drivers which includes five wins, 14 top-fives, and 1,536 laps led. He’s listed a 9-to-2 to win this week which sounds like a good deal despite not winning there since 2016. He comes in with some serious momentum after winning his fifth race of the season last week.

“It was a great victory for us,” Hamlin said. “Hats off to the entire team, especially Chris Gabehart making all the right calls on those late cautions. Now we’re dialed in and focused on Martinsville and the Round of 8. Martinsville is going to be very pivotal. We’ve always seen great battles there. I feel like it’s the greatest race in the playoffs other than Homestead.”

Beyond momentum, home cooking, and past history -- includes two Truck Series wins, the best reason to support him this week is 10 top-five finishes using this week’s race package. He was fifth in the March 24 Martinsville race.

Read More Here....Top-5 Finish Prediction on VegasInsider.com

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