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| The ninth Cup race at Kentucky Speedway is Saturday night. |
Next Race: Quaker State 400 presented by Walmart
The Place: Kentucky Speedway
The Date: Saturday, July 12
The Time: 7:30 p.m. ET
TV: NBCSN, 7:00 p.m. ET
Radio: PRN, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio
Distance: 400.5 miles (267 laps); Stage 1 (Ends on Lap 80),
Stage 2 (Ends on Lap 160), Final Stage (Ends on Lap 267)
2018 Race Winner: Martin Truex Jr.
Kentucky’s prized thoroughbreds
If you’re looking to pick a favorite for this weekend’s race at Kentucky Speedway, you would be well served to go with Joe Gibbs Racing’s Kyle Busch or Martin Truex Jr., or with Brad Keselowski from the Team Penske stable.
The reason? These three drivers have combined to win seven of the eight Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series races that have been run at Kentucky Speedway. (Matt Kenseth won the 2013 edition.)
Keselowski leads the pack with three wins (2012, 2014, 2016). Busch won the inaugural race in 2011 and then again in 2015. And Truex won the two most recent races at the 1.5-mile circuit.
And each of the three drivers won at Kentucky during their Monster Energy Series championship campaign (Keselowski – 2012, Busch – 2015, Truex – 2017).
Busch is the leader in top-five finishes with six and in top-10 finishes with seven, while Keselowski has four top fives and six top 10s. Interestingly, the only top fives Truex has put together at Kentucky are his two wins, although he has five top 10s.
Also of note, Keselowski is the only driver to have won in a make other than Toyota at Kentucky. His first win (2012) came behind the wheel of a Dodge while his next two came after Team Penske switched to Ford. Chevrolet has yet to visit Victory Lane in the Monster Energy Series at Kentucky Speedway.
Playoff bubble bouncing around
With eight races remaining in the regular season, the seven drivers (Kyle Busch, Joey Logano, Martin Truex Jr., Brad Keselowski, Denny Hamlin, Chase Elliott and Alex Bowman) have secured a Playoff position on wins.
Which leaves nine spots open for new winners or for drivers to earn their way in on points.
If the Playoffs were to start today, those drivers would be Kevin Harvick, Kurt Busch, Kyle Larson, Ryan Blaney, William Byron, Aric Almirola, Clint Bowyer, Jimmie Johnson and Ryan Newman. Daniel Suarez (17th) and Erik Jones (18th) are the first two drivers on the outside looking in.
Only 14 points separate 15th (Bowyer with 444 points) and 18th (Jones with 430 points) after Daytona. To show how much of an impact one race can have on the Playoff bubble, following Chicagoland, the rankings were Suarez, Bowyer, Jones and Newman in slots 15 through 18, in that order.
And to go back one more week to Sonoma, 15 through 18 consisted of Larson, Newman, Johnson and Jones – in that order.
Looking ahead to the Quaker State 400 at Kentucky Speedway this Saturday night (7:30 p.m. ET on NBCSN, PRN, and SiriusXM NASCAR Radio), each of the former active winners at the track have already won in 2019. And the drivers on the bubble have their work cut out for them.
Newman leads the bubble drivers with three top-five (and top-10) finishes at the 1.5-mile venue. Bowyer has only one top-five finish (and it’s also his only top 10) at the 1.5-mile venue. Jones has two top 10s (sixth and seventh) while Suarez has yet to crack the top 10 at Kentucky, posting finishes of 15th (last year) and 18th in his two starts.
A driver of note outside the top 16 who pretty much needs to win to get in to the Playoffs is Austin Dillon. He has the most Playoff appearances (three) of any driver outside the top 16 right now, and is looking to extend his Playoff appearance streak to four years, after making it to the postseason in 2016-2018. He sits 77 points back of the 16th-place cutoff spot. But he’s going to have to improve his Kentucky performance tremendously if he’s going to get in on a win in the Bluegrass State. In six starts there, he has twice posted a best finish of 16th – and has tallied an average finish of 20.3.
Jones (2018), Ricky Stenhouse Jr. (made the Playoffs in 2017, currently 19th in points, 45 points out of 16th), Paul Menard (made the Playoffs in 2015, currently 20th in points, 53 points back) and Chris Buescher (made the Playoffs in 2016, currently 21st in points, 74 points out of Playoff contention) are the only other drivers with postseason experience who are currently out of the Playoff picture.
Summertime Sizzle: Hendrick heating up at opportune time
Talks of Hendrick Motorsports’ decline came a little too soon. The storied organization is beginning to hit its stride as the NASCAR season heads into the depths of summer.
Right now, Hendrick is led by Chase Elliott, who’s seventh in the Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series points standings. The 23-year-old Dawsonville, Georgia, native claims one win this season, along with six top fives, seven top 10s and 409 laps led. He’s struggled over the last four races, failing to notch a top 10 after tallying six consecutive top fives, but heads to Kentucky where he has a high finish of third (three career starts).
Alex Bowman sits ninth in the Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series standings and has performed well at 1.5-mile tracks recently, including his win at Chicagoland less than two weeks ago. Prior to Chicagoland, he placed seventh at Charlotte and runner-up at Kansas. Bowman has never placed higher than 31st at Kentucky (three starts).
William Byron sits 12th in the points standings following his runner-up finish at Daytona. The 2017 NASCAR Xfinity Series champion is showing he belongs at the Monster Energy Cup level with four top 10s in his last six starts. Byron placed 20th in his lone Cup start at Kentucky last season and boasts a NASCAR Gander Outdoors Truck Series win at the 1.5-mile track.
Following talks of his decline, seven-time series champion Jimmie Johnson has posted finishes of third (Daytona) and fourth (Chicagoland) in his last two starts. He currently sits 13th in the points standings, 34 points above the Playoffs cutoff. In eight career starts at Kentucky, Johnson claims one top five and five top 10s with a high finish of third (2011). He’s finished eighth or better in his last four starts at 1.5-mile tracks: Chicagoland (fourth), Charlotte (eighth), Kansas (sixth), Texas (fifth).
Team Penske ready to assert itself in the Bluegrass State
The Team Penske trio of Brad Keselowski, Joey Logano and Ryan Blaney looks to finish in the top 10 at Kentucky together for the second consecutive season. Last year, Blaney led the charge in second, followed by Keselowski in third and Logano in 10th.
All three drivers have been successful in the Bluegrass State over the course of their careers.
Keselowski headlines the group with three wins (tops in the series), four top fives, six top 10s and 109.6 driver rating (second).
Blaney claims finishes of second (2018), 10th (2017) and 35th (2016) in three Kentucky starts. Additionally, he’s won twice there in the NASCAR Xfinity Series.
In eight starts at Kentucky, Logano owns two top fives and five tops 10s. His high finish at the 1.5-mile track is a runner-up showing in 2015.
Penske drivers have finished in the top 10 together three times this season (Auto Club, Michigan and Chicagoland).
Measuring up at the 1.5-mile tracks
As Kentucky Speedway’s Quaker State 400 (Saturday, 7:30 p.m. ET on NBCSN, PRN and SiriusXM NASCAR Radio) marks the final 1.5-mile race in the regular season, we stop to look at the top performers at this distance both overall and in 2019 as we size up the opportunity for a new driver to break into the win column this season.
It should come as no surprise that the career leader in wins at this distance is seven-time Monster Energy Series champion Jimmie Johnson. His 28 wins betters Jeff Gordon (16) by 12 visits to Victory Lane. Kevin Harvick is third on the all-time list, second among active drivers, with 15 wins, while Brad Keselowski and Kyle Busch trail with 13 victories. Martin Truex Jr. is fifth among active drivers with 11 wins at 1.5-milers.
Two drivers looking for their first win of the season top the runner-up category. Johnson has 18 second-place finishes while Harvick has posted 17. They are also the top two active drivers in top fives (Johnson with 75, Harvick with 61) and top 10s (Johnson with 115, Harvick with 108).
Kyle Busch joins the party when it comes to laps led. Johnson’s 5,837 are the best, while Busch has recorded 4,858 laps out front and Harvick has 4,733.
In 2019, Keselowski has been the best in most categories at 1.5-mile tracks…and keep in mind, he’s the all-time leader in wins at Kentucky with three. He leads this season with two wins at this distance, as well as four top-five and four top-10 finishes.
Harvick has notched the most laps led this year with 383 at 1.5-mile tracks. Alex Bowman (the Chicagoland winner) is tied with Kyle Busch (who has yet to win at a 1.5-mile track this season) at 159 laps led. Kyle Larson, looking for his first win of the year, is fourth in laps led with 149.
And speaking of Harvick, he also has the second-best average finishing position at 1.5-milers this season. His 8.83 after finish is just behind Truex’ 8.5 mark.
Variety is the name of the game
Including last week’s trip to the 2.5-mile high-banked, high-speed superspeedway in Daytona, the 2019 Monster Energy Series regular season schedule wraps up with eight very unique tracks – providing opportunities for a wide variety of drivers to win their way into the Playoffs. Below is a look at the seven remaining facilities in the regular season:
Kentucky Speedway – The only 1.5-mile track remaining in the regular season. Only three active drivers (Brad Keselowski, Kyle Busch, Martin Truex Jr.) have conquered the track in the Bluegrass State…and all already have wins in 2019.
New Hampshire Motor Speedway – Measuring at slightly longer than a mile, New Hampshire is a shorter, flat track with variable banking at two and seven degrees in the corners and one degree on the straights. Former Loudon winners who have yet to visit Victory Lane this season are aplenty and have combined for 14 wins there – Jimmie Johnson (three wins), Kevin Harvick (three), Kurt Busch (three) Ryan Newman (three) and Clint Bowyer (two).
Pocono Raceway – The 2.5-mile "Tricky Triangle" has three unique turns (Turn 1 – 14 degrees of banking, Turn 2 – eight degrees, Turn 3 – six degrees) and long straights (frontstretch – 3,740 feet, backstretch – 3,055 feet, shortstretch – 1,780 feet). Jimmie Johnson (three wins), Kurt Busch (three), Ryan Newman (one), Chris Buescher (one) and Ryan Blaney (one) have all won at Pocono but not, yet, anywhere this year. On Wednesday, Pocono announced that they would add the PJ1 traction compound in all three of its turns, helping add another lane option for passing opportunities.
Watkins Glen International – The Finger Lakes Region of upstate New York hosts this historic 2.45-mile, seven-turn road course. Of note – all of the active previous winners at The Glen have found Victory Lane in 2019 except for Kevin Harvick (2006 winner).
Michigan International Speedway – The Irish Hills provide the backdrop for this spacious, smooth and speedy two-miler that features 18 degrees of banking in the corners. Kyle Larson and Kurt Busch’s three wins each at Michigan are the most among active winners who haven’t won in 2019. Kevin Harvick and Ryan Newman have a pair of wins each there, while Jimmie Johnson and Clint Bowyer have one apiece.
Bristol Motor Speedway – Thunder Valley sets the scene for the half-mile, high-banked short track featuring variable banking (from 24 to 28 degrees) in the turns. Kurt Busch is second only to his brother, Kyle, in wins at Bristol with six to Kyle’s eight. Kevin Harvick, with two wins at the track, is the only other active former winner who has yet to be victorious in 2019.
Darlington Raceway – "The Track Too Tough To Tame" is an egg-shaped 1.366-mile track with 25 degrees of banking in Turns 1 and 2, and 23 degrees of banking in 3 and 4. Jimmie Johnson’s three wins top the list of drivers who have bested the challenge of the unique configuration. Kevin Harvick (one win) is the only other active former winner at Darlington who has not won this season.
Indianapolis Motor Speedway – While Pocono is a triangle that modeled Turn 2 after Indianapolis, the "Brickyard" is basically a 2.5-mile flat rectangle, featuring short straights between the turns, which are all banked at nine degrees. Jimmie Johnson’s four wins at the famed track are most among active drivers and are second-most all-time (to Jeff Gordon’s five). Joining him on the list of active Brickyard winners who are searching for their first win this season are Kevin Harvick, Paul Menard and Ryan Newman (one win each).
"By The Numbers" at the mid-point of the 2019 season
As the Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series heads to Kentucky, it marks the mid-point of the 2019 season – 18 races down, 18 to go. Here’s a "By The Numbers" to this point in the season:
Nine different Busch Pole Award winners from five organizations
Hendrick Motorsports – William Byron (three), Chase Elliott (two), Jimmie Johnson (one)
Stewart-Haas Racing – Kevin Harvick (three), Aric Almirola (one)
Team Penske - Joey Logano (two), Ryan Blaney (one)
Richard Childress Racing – Austin Dillon (three)
Chip Ganassi Racing – Kyle Larson (one)
Eight different race winners from four organizations
Joe Gibbs Racing – Kyle Busch (four), Martin Truex Jr. (four) and Denny Hamlin (two)
Team Penske - Brad Keselowski (three) and Joey Logano (two)
Hendrick Motorsports – Chase Elliott (one) and Alex Bowman (one)
Spire Motorsports – Justin Haley (one)
Average number of lead changes (19.22) per race through the first 18 events of the 2019 season are the most since 2015 during that same time frame.
Average number of leaders (9.56) per race through the first 18 races of the season are the most since 2014.
Average Margin of Victory over the first 18 races of the 2019 season is 1.454 seconds; with 10 of the 18 races (55.6%) this season finishing with a margin of victory of less than a second.
In a year-over-year comparison (2018-2019), this season has seen an increase of green flag passes for the lead of 43.5%.
In a year-over-year comparison (2018-2019), the Monster Energy Series has seen significant gains in green flag passes for the lead in 12 of the 18 races this season; including all six of the 1.5-mile tracks (Atlanta, Las Vegas, Texas, Kansas, Charlotte and Chicago).
Four of the 18 races this season have produced record setting green flag passes for the lead; producing more green flag passes for the lead than ever before – Las Vegas, Bristol, Kansas and Chicago.
Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series Etc.
New Names In Top 10 At Daytona: Some different names than usual popped up in the top 10 following the drama at Daytona last weekend. In addition to first-time race winner Justin Haley, William Byron (second), Ty Dillon (fourth), Corey Lajoie (sixth) and Matt Tifft (ninth) all posted career-best finishes. Furthermore, Ryan Newman (fifth) nabbed his first top five this season and Matt DiBenedetto (eighth) secured the second top 10 of his 2019 campaign.
Sunoco Rookie Watch: Richard Childress Racing’s Daniel Hemric holds a sizeable lead over Ryan Preece in the Sunoco Rookie of the Year standings. His 293 points better Preece by 58 points. Hemric has one top-five this year, a fifth-place finish at Talladega. Preece has a pair of top 10s (eighth at the season opener in Daytona and third at Talladega). This weekend is the first visit to Kentucky for both drivers.
Parade Laps: Insights to the drivers that will participate in media breakouts
Seven drivers are on tap to visit with the media this weekend at Kentucky Speedway during the media breakout sessions. The first rotation of drivers will include Stewart-Haas Racing’s Aric Almirola, Roush Fenway Racing’s Ryan Newman, Richard Childress Racing’s Daniel Hemric and Front Row Motorsports Matt Tifft. The second rotation will include GO FAS Racing’s Corey Lajoie, Germain Racing’s Ty Dillon and Front Row Motorsport’s David Ragan.
Rotation 1 (4:15-4:30 pm – Bluegrass Hall)
Aric Almirola, 35, from Tampa, Fla., is 10th in the Monster Energy Series driver points standings following Daytona; 188 points back from the series standings lead. Though on pace to make the Playoffs, Almirola is still looking for his first win of the season, much like his Stewart-Haas Racing teammates. In 18 starts this year he has posted one pole, one top five and 10 top 10s. This weekend could be tough Almirola, Kentucky Speedway has been an uphill climb for him in the past. In six series career starts at the 1.5-mile track he has just one top-10 finish (eighth-place last season).
Ryan Newman, 41, from South Bend, Ind., is currently 16th in the Monster Energy Series driver standings; the final transfer position into the Playoffs. Newman has just a three-point edge over 17th place Daniel Suarez heading into this weekend at Kentucky. In 18 starts this season, Newman has put up one top five and six top 10s. At Kentucky, the Roush Fenway Racing driver has made eight series starts posting three top fives and an average finish of 15.1.
Daniel Hemric, 28, from Kannapolis, N.C., is 24th in the Monster Energy Series driver standings following Daytona, 150 points behind 16th place Ryan Newman in the final Playoff transfer spot. Though, he leads the 2019 Sunoco Rookie of the Year standings. The Richard Childress Racing driver has just one top-five finish in 18 series starts this season (fifth-place finish at Talladega). This weekend at Kentucky Speedway will be Hemric’s series track debut on the 1.5-mile track. But he does have some experience at Kentucky, having made three starts in the Xfinity Series, posting a runner-up finish in last season’s event.
Matt Tifft, 23, from Hinckley, Ohio, is 31st in the Monster Energy Series driver standings following Daytona. Tifft is also ranked third in the Sunoco Rookie of the Year standings this season. In 18 starts, the Front Row Motorsports driver has grabbed one top-10 (ninth at Daytona-2) and three top-20 finishes in 2019. Tifft will have lots to learn this weekend as he will be making his series track debut at Kentucky.
Rotation 2 (4:40-4:55 pm – Bluegrass Hall)
Corey Lajoie, 27, from Concord, N.C., is in his fourth year of Monster Energy Series competition and is 29th in driver standings following Daytona. Lajoie joined GO FAS Racing in the offseason and in his first 18 starts with the team has put up one top-10 and four top-20 finishes. LaJoie made his series track debut at Kentucky last season – he started 31st and finished 31st.
Ty Dillon, 27, Welcome, N.C., is 23rd in the Monster Energy Series driver standings, 133 points behind 16th place Ryan Newman in the final Playoff transfer spot. Dillon is having his best Cup season to date, having posted one top five and two top 10s in 18 starts – including a series career-best fourth last weekend at Daytona. Looking to this weekend Dillon hopes the momentum continues at Kentucky where he has made three starts posting an average finish of 29.0.
David Ragan, 33, from Unadilla, Ga., is 30th in the Monster Energy Series driver standings following Daytona, 235 points behind 16th place Ryan Newman in the final Playoff transfer spot. In 18 starts this season Ragan has amassed three top-20 finishes. In eight series starts at Kentucky he has posted one top 10 and average finish of 22.0.
New Names In Top 10 At Daytona: Some different names than usual popped up in the top 10 following the drama at Daytona last weekend. In addition to first-time race winner Justin Haley, William Byron (second), Ty Dillon (fourth), Corey Lajoie (sixth) and Matt Tifft (ninth) all posted career-best finishes. Furthermore, Ryan Newman (fifth) nabbed his first top five this season and Matt DiBenedetto (eighth) secured the second top 10 of his 2019 campaign.
Sunoco Rookie Watch: Richard Childress Racing’s Daniel Hemric holds a sizeable lead over Ryan Preece in the Sunoco Rookie of the Year standings. His 293 points better Preece by 58 points. Hemric has one top-five this year, a fifth-place finish at Talladega. Preece has a pair of top 10s (eighth at the season opener in Daytona and third at Talladega). This weekend is the first visit to Kentucky for both drivers.
Parade Laps: Insights to the drivers that will participate in media breakouts
Seven drivers are on tap to visit with the media this weekend at Kentucky Speedway during the media breakout sessions. The first rotation of drivers will include Stewart-Haas Racing’s Aric Almirola, Roush Fenway Racing’s Ryan Newman, Richard Childress Racing’s Daniel Hemric and Front Row Motorsports Matt Tifft. The second rotation will include GO FAS Racing’s Corey Lajoie, Germain Racing’s Ty Dillon and Front Row Motorsport’s David Ragan.
Rotation 1 (4:15-4:30 pm – Bluegrass Hall)
Aric Almirola, 35, from Tampa, Fla., is 10th in the Monster Energy Series driver points standings following Daytona; 188 points back from the series standings lead. Though on pace to make the Playoffs, Almirola is still looking for his first win of the season, much like his Stewart-Haas Racing teammates. In 18 starts this year he has posted one pole, one top five and 10 top 10s. This weekend could be tough Almirola, Kentucky Speedway has been an uphill climb for him in the past. In six series career starts at the 1.5-mile track he has just one top-10 finish (eighth-place last season).
Ryan Newman, 41, from South Bend, Ind., is currently 16th in the Monster Energy Series driver standings; the final transfer position into the Playoffs. Newman has just a three-point edge over 17th place Daniel Suarez heading into this weekend at Kentucky. In 18 starts this season, Newman has put up one top five and six top 10s. At Kentucky, the Roush Fenway Racing driver has made eight series starts posting three top fives and an average finish of 15.1.
Daniel Hemric, 28, from Kannapolis, N.C., is 24th in the Monster Energy Series driver standings following Daytona, 150 points behind 16th place Ryan Newman in the final Playoff transfer spot. Though, he leads the 2019 Sunoco Rookie of the Year standings. The Richard Childress Racing driver has just one top-five finish in 18 series starts this season (fifth-place finish at Talladega). This weekend at Kentucky Speedway will be Hemric’s series track debut on the 1.5-mile track. But he does have some experience at Kentucky, having made three starts in the Xfinity Series, posting a runner-up finish in last season’s event.
Matt Tifft, 23, from Hinckley, Ohio, is 31st in the Monster Energy Series driver standings following Daytona. Tifft is also ranked third in the Sunoco Rookie of the Year standings this season. In 18 starts, the Front Row Motorsports driver has grabbed one top-10 (ninth at Daytona-2) and three top-20 finishes in 2019. Tifft will have lots to learn this weekend as he will be making his series track debut at Kentucky.
Rotation 2 (4:40-4:55 pm – Bluegrass Hall)
Corey Lajoie, 27, from Concord, N.C., is in his fourth year of Monster Energy Series competition and is 29th in driver standings following Daytona. Lajoie joined GO FAS Racing in the offseason and in his first 18 starts with the team has put up one top-10 and four top-20 finishes. LaJoie made his series track debut at Kentucky last season – he started 31st and finished 31st.
Ty Dillon, 27, Welcome, N.C., is 23rd in the Monster Energy Series driver standings, 133 points behind 16th place Ryan Newman in the final Playoff transfer spot. Dillon is having his best Cup season to date, having posted one top five and two top 10s in 18 starts – including a series career-best fourth last weekend at Daytona. Looking to this weekend Dillon hopes the momentum continues at Kentucky where he has made three starts posting an average finish of 29.0.
David Ragan, 33, from Unadilla, Ga., is 30th in the Monster Energy Series driver standings following Daytona, 235 points behind 16th place Ryan Newman in the final Playoff transfer spot. In 18 starts this season Ragan has amassed three top-20 finishes. In eight series starts at Kentucky he has posted one top 10 and average finish of 22.0.
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