Race to Chase: Let's call next four races the Wild Card Round

Kyle Larson will be looking for some revenge on Allmendinger.

Things are about the get real intense in the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series and it won't necessarily be with the top drivers, but rather the handful of lesser-knowns trying to make this year's Chase.

The race to the Chase has four events remaining until NASCAR's version of the playoffs begin at Chicagoland Speedway Sept. 18, and for the drivers that haven't qualified yet we're going to see some interesting strategy along the way.

Only 12 drivers have made themselves automatic qualifiers with a win on the season, but one of them -- rookie Chris Buescher -- is three points out of the 30th position in points which makes him ineligible to qualify at the moment.

So what we're looking at during NASCAR's final off weekend of the season -- they race next week at Bristol -- is 10 drivers with no wins on the season that are fighting for the final five Chase positions and they're all within 87 points of each other. It's going to be a mad dash, and if Buescher can make up those three points, because of his win, only four spots would be available for those 10 drivers. It's probably the best thing about the Chase.

Let's just call the next four weeks the Wild Card round.

Now to give an idea of how small of a number like 87 points are, consider that Denny Hamlin gathered 44 points for his win Sunday at Watkins Glen and Jimmie Johnson collected just one point for finishing dead last. These drivers can be shuffled around quickly, but the surest way to to collect them is by staying out of trouble and finishing well.

Easier said than done.

On Sunday, Kyle Larson had a top-five finish coming to him and on the last lap when A.J. Allmendinger spun him out. Instead of getting 37 points for finishing fourth, he got only 12 points for finishing 29th. Larson is currently holding the 16th and final position, eight points ahead of Trevor Bayne. He's really pissed off, too.

"We were about a 10th-place car and we were going to get a top-five day out of it," Larson said Sunday. "We were running sixth coming to (Turn) 7; the No. 47 (Allmendinger) was behind me. He is always aggressive. I figured he would be smart.

"Obviously, the No. 78 (Martin Truex Jr.) was spinning in front of us. That is a free spot for both of us and he just dumped me. He had already ran me down to the front stretch wall once with about 15 to go or so. Pretty dumb move right there, too, but I was the smarter one racing for points, lifted, could have wrecked him, but didn't. It just sucks they are going to have to start building some more race cars because he has got a few coming," he said.

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Las Vegas Hilton Super Book Odds To Win IRWIN Tools Night Race at Bristol

Kyle Busch is the heavy 5-to-2 Bristol favorite; he's won 4 of the last 5. 

IRWIN TOOLS NIGHT RACE
BRISTOL MOTOR SPEEDWAY
SATURDAY, AUGUST 27, 2011

CARL EDWARDS 8
JIMMIE JOHNSON 5
KYLE BUSCH 5-2
JEFF GORDON 12
MATT KENSETH 15
KEVIN HARVICK 12
DENNY HAMLIN 12
KURT BUSCH 10
TONY STEWART 18
DALE EARNHARDT JR 30
GREG BIFFLE 18
KASEY KAHNE 25
CLINT BOWYER 30
RYAN NEWMAN 30
BRAD KESELOWSKI 25
JOEY LOGANO 40
MARTIN TRUEX JR 50
DAVID RAGAN 50
JUAN MONTOYA 60
MARK MARTIN 30
JEFF BURTON 50
JAMIE McMURRAY 100
BRIAN VICKERS 100
DAVID REUTIMANN 50
PAUL MENARD 50
AJ ALLMENDINGER 100
MARCOS AMBROSE 100
REGAN SMITH 200
BOBBY LABONTE 1000
FIELD 300

Johnson and Busch are 3-to-1 co-favorites to win the Championship

2011 SPRINT CUP CHAMPIONSHIP (updated 8-22-11)
JIMMIE JOHNSON 3
DENNY HAMLIN 15
CARL EDWARDS 9-2
KEVIN HARVICK 8
KYLE BUSCH 3
JEFF GORDON 7
GREG BIFFLE 40
TONY STEWART 25
MATT KENSETH 8
CLINT BOWYER 40
KURT BUSCH 15
MARK MARTIN 60
JOEY LOGANO 100
JEFF BURTON 500
JUAN MONTOYA 500
KASEY KAHNE 60
JAMIE McMURRAY 500
RYAN NEWMAN 30
BRIAN VICKERS 500
DAVID REUTIMANN 500
DALE EARNHARDT JR 30
AJ ALLMENDINGER 100
MARTIN TRUEX JR 100
PAUL MENARD 100
DAVID RAGAN 100
BRAD KESELOWSKI 25
MARCOS AMBROSE 100
FIELD 1000

Race to Chase Has Drivers With Some Great Scenarios

By Micah Roberts
VegasInsider.com

Clint Bowyer in danger of not making Chase (Getty)

We’re just over the halfway point of the NASCAR Sprint Cup season, but only seven races remain until NASCAR’s version of the playoffs -- the ‘Chase for the Championship’ -- begins. The current stretch we’re in now is called the ‘Race to the Chase’ as the drivers battle to be one of the top 12 drivers after race No. 26.

This years ’Race to the Chase’ has a little more excitement built into than other years because the final two positions are given to drivers within the top-20 in points that have the most wins. Tony Stewart and Clint Bowyer are currently 11th and 12th in points, but neither has any wins on the year.

As it sits now, Bowyer would be bumped out by David Ragan (13th in points) on the basis of Ragan’s Daytona win. Should Brad Keselowski get himself into the top-20 -- he’s currently 23rd -- he would take over the spot held by Stewart because of Keselowski‘s Kansas win.

The drivers now find themselves in somewhat of a dilemma, especially Bowyer and Stewart. Do they drive cautiously and try to make the Chase on points by getting into the top-10 or do they go all out and try to win one of the remaining seven races? Obviously, they’d like to do both, but probably will accentuate their stance more as the writing on the wall becomes clearer.

Stewart has perhaps the best chance of the two just because he’s always run well at the tracks we’ll see in the next seven races. Not many drivers have been collectively better at the likes of Indianapolis, Pocono and Watkins Glen than Stewart. He could get himself a couple of wins in those three alone.

Bowyer’s best chance rests with Richmond in the final race until the Chase making him look like not too good a bet to win the Championship right now. In the Hilton’s adjusted odds to win the title, Bowyer is listed at 40-to-1 with Stewart at 15-to-1. David Ragan, despite being in at the moment, is still considered a long shot at 50-to-1.

Carl Edwards jumped back into the points lead -- after a poor finish by Kyle Busch last week -- and is the 7-to-2 favorite to win it all. Right behind him is five-time reigning Champion Jimmie Johnson at 9-to-2, Kyle Busch at 5-to-1, Matt Kenseth at 7-to-1 with Denny Hamlin, Kurt Busch and Kevin Harvick all at 8-to-1.

Jeff Gordon has been creeping up in points the last few weeks and currently sits in seventh position. At 10-to-1 odds, he could be the sneaky one of the bunch just because of how well he has run on the Chase tracks already this year. He’ll be looking to join his protégé as being a five-time champ.

As for everyone’s favorite, Dale Earnhardt Jr, well, let’s just say that Bowyer may not have to worry too much. At the rate Junior is going right now, he’ll find himself in 15th-place by the time the Chase rolls around, and missing out. In his last five races, he’s gone from being third in points to ninth with a succession of poor finishes. He’s currently 25-to-1 to win it all, but the only reason it really is that low is just because of all the risk on him from his legion of fans betting with their heart.

It’s an off week for the Cup series who will return in two weeks at Indianapolis. To get started on handicapping the race, a great reference is to look at who did well at Pocono last month.

New Hampshire Odds & Ends: Sylvania 300

compiled by Mike Forde
NASCAR Media Services

At New Hampshire Motor Speedway:

History

·         Groundbreaking for New Hampshire International Speedway, as New Hampshire Motor Speedway was originally named, was Aug. 13, 1989.

·         The first NASCAR Sprint Cup race was July 11, 1993.

·         Renamed New Hampshire Motor Speedway in 2008.

Notebook

·         There have been 31 NASCAR Sprint Cup races at New Hampshire Motor Speedway; one per year from 1993 through 1996 and two per year since.

·         Four drivers have competed in all 31 races: Jeff Burton, Jeff Gordon, Bobby Labonte and Joe Nemechek.

·         Mark Martin won the first NASCAR Sprint Cup pole.

·         Rusty Wallace won the first NASCAR Sprint Cup race.

·         There have been 16 different pole winners, led by Ryan Newman (four).

·         20 different drivers have won, led by Jeff Burton (four).

·         Last season, Joey Logano became the all-time youngest NASCAR Sprint Cup race winner at 19 years, one month and four days.

·         Jimmie Johnson (2003) and Kurt Busch (2004) are the only drivers who have posted season sweeps. Those are also the only back-to-back winners. Johnson, who won the June race, looks to repeat the feat.

·         Hendrick Motorsports has won eight races, more than any other organization.

·         The deepest in the field that a New Hampshire race winner started was 38th, by Jeff Burton in 1999.

·         There have been four winners who started from the pole. The last race winner to win from the pole was Clint Bowyer in 2007. He scored a perfect Driver Rating of 150.0 that event.

·         There have been 11 consecutive different race winners.

·         Jeff Burton led all 300 laps raced in the 2000 fall race.

·         Five drivers got their first NASCAR Sprint Cup Series win at New Hampshire: Joe Nemechek (1999), Robby Gordon (2001), Ryan Newman (2002), Clint Bowyer (2007) and Joey Logano (2009).

NASCAR in New Hampshire

·         There have been 31 NASCAR Sprint Cup races in New Hampshire, all at NHMS.

·         13 drivers in NASCAR’s three national series (all-time) are listed as New Hampshire natives.

·         There has been one race winner from New Hampshire in NASCAR’s three national series: Jamie Aube. Aube, from Manchester, won a NASCAR Nationwide Series race at Oxford Plains Speedway in 1987.

New Hampshire Motor Speedway Data

Race #: 27 of 36 (9-19-10)

Track Size: 1.058 miles

Race Length: 317.4 miles (300 laps)

Banking/Corners: Variable at 2 & 7 degrees

Banking/Straights: 1 degree

Driver Rating at New Hampshire 

Tony Stewart                 114.1

Jeff Gordon                   107.9

Jimmie Johnson            107.9

Dale Earnhardt Jr.          99.8

Denny Hamlin                99.8

Mark Martin                   95.5

Jeff Burton                     94.0

Kurt Busch                    93.6

Kevin Harvick                 93.0

Ryan Newman               91.2

Note: Driver Rating compiled from 2005-2010 races (11 total) at New Hampshire.

Qualifying/Race Data

2009 pole winner: Juan Pablo Montoya (133.431 mph, 28.545 sec.)

2009 race winner: Mark Martin, 100.753 mph, 9-20-09)

Track qualifying record: Juan Pablo Montoya (133.431 mph, 28.545 sec., 9-20-09)

Track race record: Jeff Burton (117.134 mph, 7-13-97)

Estimated Pit Window: 70-78 laps

The Chase for the NASCAR Sprint Cup

·         22 different drivers have made the Chase. All 12 drivers in this year’s field have made a prior Chase.

·         In the 60 Chase races, Jimmie Johnson leads all drivers with 18 Chase wins. Carl Edwards and Greg Biffle are tied for second, with six.

·         Champion’s wins during each Chase:

o    2004: Kurt Busch, one win

o    2005: Tony Stewart, no wins

o    2006: Jimmie Johnson, one win

o    2007: Jimmie Johnson, four wins

o    2008: Jimmie Johnson, three wins

o    2009: Jimmie Johnson four wins

·         Champion’s average finish during each Chase:

o    2004: Kurt Busch, 8.9

o    2005: Tony Stewart, 8.7

o    2006: Jimmie Johnson, 10.8

o    2007: Jimmie Johnson, 5.0

o    2008: Jimmie Johnson, 5.7

o    2009: Jimmie Johnson, 6.8

·         Jimmie Johnson is the only driver to make all seven Chases for the NASCAR Sprint Cup.

·         Three drivers have made six Chases: Jeff Gordon, Tony Stewart and Matt Kenseth. Gordon missed in 2005; Stewart in 2006; Kenseth in 2009.

·         Jimmie Johnson is the only driver to average a top-10 finish in Chase races (8.4).

·         Three drivers have 20 or more top-five finishes during Chase races: Jimmie Johnson (33), Jeff Gordon (26), Carl Edwards (20) and Matt Kenseth (20).

·         12 drivers have more than 20 top-10 finishes during Chase races: Jimmie Johnson (45), Jeff Gordon (41), Carl Edwards (32), Kurt Busch (32), Tony Stewart (31), Kevin Harvick (29), Matt Kenseth (26), Greg Biffle (26), Jeff Burton (26), Mark Martin (24), Denny Hamlin (23) and Kyle Busch (20).

·         Jimmie Johnson has the most laps led during the Chase (3,190). Matt Kenseth is second with 1,642.

·         Since the inception of Loop Data in 2005, two drivers have a Chase Driver Rating of at least 100.0: Jimmie Johnson (110.5) and Jeff Gordon (100.5).

·         Jimmie Johnson’s average start during the Chase is 9.0. He has eight poles in the 60 Chase races, second only to Ryan Newman’s nine.

·         There have been 12 races won by drivers who did not qualify for the Chase. The last to do so was Jamie McMurray, at Talladega last year.

·         Eight qualifying sessions in the Chase have been canceled due to weather.


LAS VEGAS HILTON SUPER BOOK ODDS TO WIN NEW HAMPSHIRE SYLVANIA 300