NASCAR Cup Series Returns South to Atlanta

Kevin Harvick has been a beast at Atlanta for the past six races.

The first four races of the 2020 NASCAR Cup Series season have shown three different races packages featuring competitive racing giving signs of parity not seen in recent years. Only three drivers have a series-high two top-fives so far while 17 drivers have at least one top-five. Only Kevin Harvick has finished in the top-10 of all four races.

So when the series heads back east to Atlanta Motor Speedway’s 1.5-mile high-banked layout for Sunday’s Folds of Honor QuikTrip 500, picking a winner is not as simple as it was in 2019. However, we do have the advantage of seeing this week’s race package with engines producing 550 horsepower twice this season at Las Vegas and Fontana. The data gained from those two races should be put to the forefront of handicapping or creating odds more than Atlanta’s history.

The biggest takeaway I had with both Las Vegas and Fontana combined was that Hendrick Motorsports and the new Chevy body design had made huge strides from 2019. All four Hendrick drivers looked to have cars capable of winning with Chase Elliott and Alex Bowman looking the best among the team. All three Mustangs at Team Penske are capable of winning. Harvick is ready to win and the four Joe Gibbs Toyotas don’t have the edge they had last season winning nine of 14 races using this race package.

Let’s take a look at the top candidates to win at Atlanta using the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook’s odds to win which were released Monday afternoon:

Alex Bowman (10-1): His first career win in the Cup Series came last season on the 1.5-mile layout at Chicagoland, and so far this season using this race package he probably should have won in both races. He dominated at Fontana with a win after leading a race-high 110 laps and the week before he was the fastest down the stretch at Las Vegas before a late pit sequence stopped him from passing for the lead. There’s no reason to believe he won’t be just as good Sunday.

Brad Keselowski (6-1): The past three seasons at Atlanta while using two different race packages, he’s been the best with two wins and a runner-up and he’s led with most laps in six of his last seven starts there. Based on what I’ve seen in two races at Las Vegas (7th) and Fontana (5th), he should again be battling for the win late in the race. Penske already has things figured out in all 2020 race packages and there is little difference between all three Mustangs.

Chase Elliott (6-1): He’s Atlanta’s active leader with a 10.5 average finish between four Cup starts, which doesn’t surprise considering he hails from Georgia. He’ll have the loudest cheers during the race and he’ll likely lead a bunch of laps as he did at Las Vegas (70) when he won the first two stages. He followed that dominant performance up with a fourth-place finish at Fontana. The stars and stats aligned nicely for him to get his first Cup win at his hometown track.

Kyle Busch (8-1): He was the first Toyota driver ever to win at Atlanta in 2008 and won there again in 2013. He was sixth last season and was seventh the season before starting from the pole. It’s not often you get 8-1 odds on Busch in a non-Superspeedway race and his runner-up finish at Fontana two weeks ago suggests he’s ready for his first 2020 win. And believe me, he has sleepless nights being angry that he’s winless through the first four Cup races.

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Kansas Preview: 2019 Digital Ally 400

Kevin Harvick won last spring at Kansas.

Saturday night’s Digital Ally 400 at Kansas Speedway will be the fourth race on a 1.5-mile track this season and fifth race using the race package with engines producing only 550 horsepower.

The races at Atlanta, Las Vegas, Fontana, and Texas showed that Joe Gibbs Racing and Team Penske have a substantial edge over all the teams getting two wins each.

However, it was Chevrolet that showed major gains in the last race using this package at Texas on March 31. In the first three races using this package, Kurt Busch was the only Chevrolet to have cracked the top-five doing so at Atlanta (3rd-place) and Las Vegas (5th).

The top-fives were littered with JGR Toyotas and Fords from Penske and Stewart-Haas Racing. But at Texas, Jimmie Johnson started from the pole, led 60 laps, and finished fifth. His Hendrick Motorsports teammate William Byron led 15 laps and finished sixth.

Maybe Chevrolet has turned the corner and the improvements made from the Fontana race to Texas have been even more enhanced the past six weeks since then. It certainly has been obviously apparent in the last two races using two different packages with Chevrolet getting its first win of 2019 at Talladega with Chase Elliott and his HMS teammate Alex Bowman being runner-up the last two weeks and Elliott finishing fifth at Dover Monday.

Another sign that the guys with bow-ties are showing major progress with any race package is Kyle Larson finish third at Dover. His Chip Ganassi Racing teammate Kurt Busch has been amazing in all packages, but Larson seems to find trouble weekly.

The good finish last week could create some nice momentum at Kansas where he led 101 laps in this race last season before finishing fourth as well as finishing third in the fall during the playoffs. It’s a good track for Larson if he can get some luck going his way.

Johnson is tied with Kevin Harvick for the most wins in track history which spans 26 Cup races dating back to 2001 when Chevrolet driver Jeff Gordon won the inaugural race and then did it again the next race there in 2002.

Kansas has been running two races a season there since 2011. Johnson has a track record 17 top-10 finishes in his 25 starts while averaging a 10.5 average finish.

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