Saturday, September 29, 2012

Final 2012 Dover AAA 400 Driver Ratings Following All Practices

Micah Roberts’ Top 10 Driver Ratings
AAA 400
Dover International Speedway
Sunday, September 30, 2012 -  11:16 a.m. (PDT)

Rating    Driver     Odds         Practice 1   Practice 2     Qualified     Dover*

 1. Jimmie Johnson 4/1          25th              3rd              11th            1st 
Seven-time winner; using chassis that won Brickyard 400 and June Dover race.
 2. Kyle Busch 8/1                      6th              10th               5th           29th  
Two-time winner, the last in 2010; best 10-consecutive average in final practice.
 3. Mark Martin 20/1                   4th              28th             26th           14th 
Four-time winner, the last in 2004, three runner-ups since; using third-place Texas car.
 4. Jeff Gordon 10/1                  36th              1st                7th           13th  
Four-time winner; comes in hot finishing third or better on four of past five tracks.
 5. Kevin Harvick 15/1                9th              35th             13th            2nd 
Using chassis that has produced his best finishes of 2012 -- runner-up at Phoenix and Dover.
 6. Kasey Kahne 10/1                 8th              13th              9th             9th 
Third best 10-consecutive lap average in practice; chassis has three top-10 finishes in 2012.
 7. Denny Hamlin 12/1               3rd               17th              1st           18th 
Great effort in practice and qualifying, but it’s not his best track: 20.5 career average finish.
 8. Brad Keselowski 10/1          29th               6th              10th          12th 
Gets consideration because of solid runs at Bristol, a smaller but similar track in banking.
 9. Clint Bowyer 15/1                  2nd              32nd             2nd            5th 
13.5 average finish; using chassis that finished eighth or better in both Pocono starts.
10. Martin Truex Jr. 15/1            1st              22nd              3rd            7th 
Hometown of Mayetta, NJ only two hours away; his 2007 win remains only win of career.

* Results from the June 3, 2012 FedEx 400 at Dover.

Odds courtesy of the LVH Super Book.

Micah Roberts, a former sports book director, has been setting NASCAR lines in Las Vegas since 1995. For more Roberts insights on the race, go to The Linemakers on or follow on Twitter: MicahRoberts7. 

Betting Notes
Truex Jr gets some home cookin' this week (Getty)
Jimmie Johnson is going to be hard to topple just because of his history on the track. He’s tied for the all-time lead in wins with seven and led 289 en route to the win in June. If that wasn’t enough, he’s also bringing a chassis that is batting. 667 this season with wins at Dover and the Brickyard and a runner-up finish two weeks ago at Chicago. Betting against him is not a good idea.

But, if Johnson doesn’t scare you, then maybe Mark Martin, Kevin Harvick or Kyle Busch can provide a little more intensity with better odds. They’re definitely drivers that should finish well, making them great drivers to play in matchups. Kasey Kahne should also be considered.

Matt Kenseth and Tony Stewart had terrible practices, but should be two drivers you try and take advantage of in matchups because they’ll be underdogs. Have no fear with Kenseth, this guy knows how to get around Dover. He comes in on a streak of finishing fifth or better in eight of his past nine starts.

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