Saturday, October 1, 2011

Final Dover AAA 400 Driver Rating Following All Practices and Q Sessions

Micah Roberts Driver Ratings
AAA 400
Dover International Speedway
Sunday, October 2, 2011 - 11:16 am (PDT)

Rating  Driver  Odds          Practice 1   Practice 2   Qualified   Dover*

1. Jeff Gordon 8/1               4th            2nd             34th      17th

Three-time winner; strong practices and dominating Bristol race make him the favorite.
2. Matt Kenseth 10/1         2nd           20th            18th       1st

Two-time winner; using the same chassis this week that he won with in May Dover race.
3. Jimmie Johnson 6/1        7th           12th             6th        9th

Six-time winner, the last coming in 2010; using chassis that finished second at Michigan.
4. Kyle Busch 6/1               5th           11th             5th        4th

Two-time winner with six other finishes of sixth or better; using winning Kentucky chassis.
5. Carl Edwards 7/1            3rd          16th              4th        7th

2007 winner and track best 7.6 average finish; using fourth-place Chicagoland chassis.
6. Kevin Harvick 15/1       16th         18th             22nd     10th

Career best of third in 2006. Has led 134 laps in 21 starts; using winning Charlotte chassis.
7. Mark Martin 30/1         15th          1st              17th      2nd

Four-time winner, the last coming in 2004; 11.4 average finsh in last 20 starts.
8. Brad Keselowski 15/1    6th         22nd             15th      13th

Rated high on the basis of his Bristol win where notes from that race should translate well.
9. Kurt Busch 12/1           12th         14th              2nd       14th

Five top-five finishes, including three in his last five starts; using third-place Pocono car.
10. Martin Truex Jr. 30/1 8th          33rd             1st          8th

Captured his only career win at Dover in 2007; had a strong runner-up finish at Bristol.

* Results from the May 15, 2011 FedEx 400 at Dover.

Note: Results from the August 27, 2011 race at Bristol can also be used as a barometer for Sunday's race. Although, Bristol is half the size of Dover, the two concrete tracks each have multiple grooves and similar banking.

Odds courtesy of the Las Vegas Hilton Super Book.

Micah Roberts, a former race and sports book director, has been setting NASCAR lines in Las Vegas since 1995. For more of Roberts' insights and post-practice analysis on the race, go to or follow MicahRoberts7 on Twitter.

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