Saturday, March 5, 2011

Las Vegas Final Driver Ratings Following All Practice Sessions

Micah Roberts Top 10 Driver Ratings
Kobalt Tools 400
Las Vegas Motor Speedway
Sunday, March 6, 2011 - 12:16 pm (PDT)

Rating    Driver     Odds       Practice 1  Qualified  Practice 2   LVMS ‘10*

 1. Carl Edwards 5/1                4th               3rd            4th             12th 
2008 Las Vegas winner; 12.7 average finish. Top average speeds in final practice.
 2. Greg Biffle 12/1                  5th               4th             5th             10th 
12.9 average finish in seven starts. Second fastest average speeds in final practice.
 3. Kyle Busch 6/1                  17th               5th            2nd             15th 
2009 winner; best 10 consecutive lap average in final practice. Using fall Charlotte chassis.
 4. Matt Kenseth 15/1              1st               1st             1st               5th 
Two-time winner with 11.7 average; 13th or better in nine of the 10 1.5-mile tracks in 2010.    
 5. Tony Stewart 12/1              7th               15th           8th              7th 
One of two tracks he hasn’t won at; 14.8 average Vegas finish. Using fifth-place Indy chassis.
 6. Jimmie Johnson 6/1          12th              14th           15th            1st 
Four-time winner with 10.0 average in nine starts; using third-place Charlotte chassis.
 7. David Reutimann 40/1       28th              25th           6th             13th 
Finished fourth in 2009; his only two career wins came on 1.5-mile tracks. Great Final practice.
 8. Ryan Newman 30/1           15th               8th            3rd             18th 
Had an excellent final practice session using a chassis that has seen action in 12 races.
 9. Jeff Gordon 15/1                19th              13th          21st             3rd 
2001 winner with an average of 13.3; one of five drivers to start all 13 Vegas races.
10. Kevin Harvick 15/1            23rd              26th          27th             2nd 
Using third-place Homestead chassis; consistent on all 1.5-mile tracks, 12.8 Vegas average.                                                            
* Results from the February 28, 2010 race at Las Vegas Motor Speedway.

Odds courtesy of the Las Vegas Hilton Super Book.

Note: Matt Kenseth stood out in all practice and qualifying races this weekend at Las Vegas, but I’m not convinced his top speeds in all those sessions isn’t a matter of just being good for a few single laps. A top-five finish seems likely from him, but a few others look better based on great longer runs.

Roberts Weekly Driver Ratings 
Each week I will provide an analysis of my top rated drivers on how well they will do in the race based on the following criteria:
• Practice sessions leading up to the weekend’s Sprint Cup race
• Chassis information on what was brought to each track by each team, good or bad
• Driver tendencies at certain tracks
• Recent and overall histories for each driver at each track
• Decipher poor past results with what really happened, good car -- or bad luck?
These final ratings should help assist in final betting strategies with the Las Vegas books or match-up and prop plays, as well as help in NASCAR fantasy leagues.

Micah Roberts, a former race and sports Director, has been setting NASCAR lines in Las Vegas since 1995. For more Roberts insights and post-practice analysis on the race, go to 

Final Practice Notes and Speeds

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